a full week ahead of us, let's keep rolling !
GL

OFFICIAL: All matches in Ligue 1 & Ligue 2 to be played behind closed doors until April 15 due to coronavirus outbreak in France.

Confirmed: Bayern Munich vs Chelsea will be played behind closed doors next week, meaning supporters will not be able to attend

Leipzig have failed to win either of their last two outings as they had to settle for draws with top-half Bundesliga sides Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg.


However, that doesn’t exactly taint their recent unbeaten run of three victories from their last six outings dating back to a stalemate at the Allianz Arena against Bayern a month ago.


Spurs can’t quite boast a record anywhere near that an in fact, they’ve gone on a woeful run of three defeats from five winless outings since the opening leg defeat at their home stadium.


That record is made even worse when considering two of those games came against Norwich in the FA Cup, where they went out on penalties, as well as a Burnley outfit who certainly aren’t up to the level of this German side.


To make matters worse, the Lilywhites are a woeful W4-D10-L7 on the road this term, with three of those victories coming over Red Star Belgrade and Premier League relegation battlers West Ham and Aston Villa.


It should be noted though, that five of their defeats came by single-goal margins, while they do have a knack of seeing some interesting games on their travels, as 16 of those trips saw both sides get onto the scoreboard.


Nonetheless, the visitors will be without both their star strikers Son Heung-min and Harry Kane.


Indeed, where neither of them have played more than a single half, Tottenham are W3-D6-L7 over 90 minutes in all competitions since the start of last season, as two of those victories came against already relegated outfits Huddersfield and Fulham domestically last season, while the other was against championship side Middlesbrough in the FA Cup in January and so we just can’t see them coming out on top.

Leipzig And Spurs To Draw


The hosts’ have an impressive seven wins from their last 11 unbeaten outings at the Red Bull Arena dating back to late October, as both sides scored in nine, including all four stalemates.


However, they seem to pick up their points against the weaker teams domestically, going W11-D0-L1 from 12 encounters with bottom-half sides, while this is just W3-D8-L2 against the top half.


Although teams that have won 1-0 on the road in the first legs of Champions League knockouts are a positive W4-D1-L2 back at home since 2010/11, we’d be conscious of the fact that one of the anomalies was Spurs themselves last term against Ajax, though it would be a tough ask to escape another precarious situation.


Both Teams To Score


The concern for the hosts we would have is they’re just W2-D2-L2 at this stadium in Europe since the start of last season from the group stages onwards, with both sides scoring in four, while the two defeats came against the best sides they faced over that period in Salzburg and Lyon.


With that in mind, Leipzig look plenty short at the minute and we’d rather back the draw at the prices.


That’s especially the case given the Lilywhites have only lost on the road in Europe three times from 13 outings since 2017/18, with stalemates occurring on five occasions, while with both teams scoring in 10 of these the banker bet in this one looks to be in the game to open up.

Valencia v Atalanta | Tuesday 10th March 2020, 3:00

Atalanta travel to Spain following a near-perfect first leg in Milan which has put them within touching distance of creating even more history for the club in their debut Champions League season.

To have even got to this stage is a fantastic achievement for the Bergamo-based side and their expected progression to the quarter-final stage is richly deserved for their positive approach to games. Anyone who has watched any Serie A this season will tell you that, despite not challenging for the title alongside Juventus, Inter Milan and Lazio, there have been no more exciting teams to watch than Atalanta.

La Dea’s 70 goals scored domestically is 10 more than any other side in Italy’s top tier and is testament to how Gian Gasperini sets his team up. They move the ball quickly, press high and have a number of options in terms of players that can come into the side in the preferred 3-4-3 formation.

The attacking adventure of the team has blown many opposition away, Valencia included, and you have to admire any group that has scored seven goals on three occasions this season.

Duvan Zapata and Josip Ilicic have bagged 28 goals between them this season and are arguably both in the peak of their careers so we could see yet more to come from the front pairing, especially with Pau Gomez playing just behind them in the number 10 role.

I highlighted Ilicic in previewing the first leg encounter in Italy and he duly scored on that night in a man of the match performance. Even when the Slovenian is not scoring, he’s linking up play superbly well and laying on chances for his teammates so expect him to contribute positively again here in leg two.

Interestingly, the 32 year-old has – by WhoScored.com’s ratings – been the best player on the pitch in five of his last six appearances in all competitions so it’ll be worth keeping an eye on the prices that Betfair and William Hill go with him managing the same feat on Tuesday night.

The striker’s eight MOTM awards earned in 2019/20 is five more than any other player in the Atalanta squad so I’d probably back anything at about 6/1 or above that he receives that honour once more.

No team has overcome such a deficit going into the second leg of a Champions League tie since Deportivo won 4-0 to progress 5-4 on aggregate past the then holders AC Milan, so the odds are firmly stacked against Valencia as it is. Furthermore, when you consider their home advantage has been nullified by this game being played behind closed doors, then the task looks almost impossible.

In addition, Valencia’s form will hardly give the home supporters watching on TV any form of confidence. With just one win in seven, Los Che are in danger of not featuring in any European competition next season which would be considered abject failure with the likes of Real Sociedad and Getafe currently above them in the La Liga table.

Another disadvantage for Valencia is the fact that Atalanta will not have played for nine days come Tuesday evening so they should be fresh and ready to get across the line at the Mestalla. The home team will come out desperate for an early goal to make life uncomfortable for the Black and Blues but that could just play into Atalanta’s hand on the counter-attack.

Valencia have been conceding plenty of chances in recent months as injuries and suspensions have caught up with Albert Celades’ side, particularly in defence. Former Arsenal man Gabriel, in my view Valencia’s best centre-back, is suspended for this match which is a big blow and Valencia will give up chances as they throw numbers forward in the search of a way back into the tie.

RB Leipzig v Tottenham | Tuesday 10th March 2020

Spurs have an uphill battle ahead of them as they travel to east Germany with a 1-0 first leg deficit after an incredibly passive first leg in which they were lucky to lose just by the single goal. But Tottenham still have a sniff with there just been a single goal in the tie so far.

You’d be a brave man to fancy Jose Mourinho's men to get through here though with their torrid road record and recent results in general. Their draw at Burnley was a lucky one and that stopped the rot of four consecutive defeats. It’s not like they’ve deserved anything from them either.

Spurs have only won the Expected Goals (xG) battle three times in the league under Mourinho and actually have a negative xG supremacy under the ‘Special One’.

Fair enough Tottenham have been without Heung Min-Son and Harry Kane for a while but it’s defensively where the North Londoners look circumspect. They conceded 3.76 xG against Burnley, who were wasteful in front of goal – they will be punished should they play like that against this Leipzig outfit and I’m not surprised the hosts are around the 4/7 mark to win, even though they don’t have to.

Game dynamics always make second legs an intriguing case from a punting perspective, particularly so in-play with teams needing to attack at certain times. However, some markets pre-match also hold appeal if you can read the game state and in this case I think the 11/10 (Betfair) offering on the Second-Half being the Highest Scoring Half has to be a tempting bet.

The way this game is set up should benefit Die Roten Bullen as they can use the pace of Timo Werner, Christopher N’Kunku and Marcel Sabitzer on the break once the game opens up. Spurs may be happy to go into the break 0-0 and I’m sure Jose will be happy if that’s the case but ultimately they will need to attack at some point.

With the sheer volume of shots Spurs are conceding, even with a defensive set up, it would be remiss of me not to look into the shots market for Leipzig. The player that has impressed me most in recent months for the Germans in Christopher N’Kunku, he’s revelled in a free role behind the two strikers in a 5-2-1-2 formation adopted by head coach Julian Nagelsmann.

Jurgen Klopp with the best answer on his take of Covid 19, saying he's a football manager, not a Doctor, well said

Liverpool certainly know how to beat the odds in the knockout phase having dumped Barca out of this competition last season after going down 3-0 at the Nou Camp.


However, fellow Spanish outfit Atletico are far less prone to an away day collapse than the Catalan giants, and Liverpool will require something special at Anfield.


Fortunately for Jurgen Klopp’s side, their three recent defeats to Atletico, Watford and Chelsea have all come on their travels. Back at Anfield, they’ve been utterly imperious since the start of last season with a W41-D5-L1 record, with that sole defeat coming in the League Cup against Chelsea back in September 2018.


Much like with Liverpool, Atletico have made a fortress out of their home stadium, but results away from the Wanda Metropolitano or on neutral territory have left a lot to be desired – winning just two of 15 since early October.

Liverpool/Liverpool HT/FT


They did manage nine draws over this period and will be hopeful of grinding out another here, but they’re only W2-D1-L4 away in Europe since the start of last season so we’re not overly confident about their prospects.


In fact, the two wins came over Monaco and Lokomotiv Moscow, the draw against Club Brugge, while they trailed at both half-time and full-time in defeats when visiting stronger opponents Juventus (twice), Dortmund and Leverkusen.


We’d virtually rule out the away win then, especially as Liverpool are unbeaten here in Europe under Klopp.


In fact, since 2011/12, teams that have lost 1-0 on the road in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie have improved back on home turf, going W8-D4-L2 as they led at both half-time and full-time in all but one of those victories.


Given Liverpool have produced W/W doubles in eight of their last 11 at home in this competition, including impressive victories over Man City, Roma, PSG, Napoli, Porto and Barcelona, they look worth siding with to stay right in this contest.


Whereas Diego Simeone has his strongest 11 available to him, Klopp will be sweating on the fitness of Jordan Henderson, and though Andy Robertson is expected to start, Alisson Becker has been ruled out completely.


However, while Adrian gave a reminder of his sometimes erratic nature, gifting Chelsea their opener in the FA Cup last week, Liverpool coped without the Brazilian between the sticks earlier on in the season as they marched into an early title lead domestically. Expect Liverpool to be on the front foot here and do most of the attacking.

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid | Wednesday 11th March 2020, 4:00
It’s all set, perfectly poised to be another epic Anfield night in the Champions League. Atletico Madrid should expect a cauldron as they enter Merseyside as Liverpool look to emulate recent comebacks against Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona as they look to hold onto their European crown.

It couldn’t be more perfectly poised for the neutral this one. It’s the usually rock solid defence of Atletico with a 1-0 lead to hold onto and the fact they didn’t concede an away goal in that game at the Wanda Metropolitano has made them favourites across the board with the bookies.

It’s been the first tough period of the season for Jurgen Klopp’s men but at Anfield this season and have only failed to win once in all competition, a phenomenal feat. Atletico, on the other hand, have been terrible on the road this season, winning just five times out of 19 possible attempts stretching over all competitions, scoring more than a single goal on just five of those occasions too.

You’ve come to expect such an approach from the ultra-pragmatic Diego Simeone. The fiery Argentinian is renowned for his defensive set up and its provided great success during his reign at the capital club for a good few years now but it’s hit a stand still this season with them failing to take advantage .

Atlietco pride themselves on their defensive organisation but it’s just not on par with the superb back five of circa 2016. Filipe Luis, Juanfran and Diego Godin have all long gone and it’s still a relatively new-look backline. No doubt Atleti will be camp inside their own half for most of the game and try play with the ball in front of them, in that regard the game dynamics do suit Los Colchoneros.

One thing Liverpool have been praised for this season is their adaptability to eventually winning against all types of formations and styles. They’ve faced many low blocks as the home team and this will be no different. It will be interesting to see if the visitors come out of the blocks swiftly and try and get a potentially vital away goal but that would be a risky move that could give the hosts ample space to be their destructive best.

It really is on a knife edge and if Atleti can score it does make it a tough task for Klopp and his side but they’ve came back from much larger disadvantages in the past.

All in all I expect this to be 10/11 each of two in the ‘To Qualify’ market, however Liverpool are odds-against at 11/10 (Betfair) and I think the value has to be with them – their history, near-perfect home form and their opponents poor away form. They will be backed by a special atmosphere that seems to always see them through even the most adverse of situations. Despite the current aggregate score I still expect the Reds to progress.

PSG v Dortmund | Wednesday 11th March 2020, 4:00
With this tie finely poised, it’s such a shame that the second match-up in Paris becomes yet another game to be played behind closed doors and be robbed of a good atmosphere with the Coronavirus outbreak taking hold across Europe.

PSG will undoubtably be most frustrated at that development as it limits any form of home advantage which sometimes gives teams the edge in the second leg. Although they fell to defeat in Dortmund, they managed to claim an away goal which could yet prove vital in deciding who progresses to the quarter-finals.

Of course, the Parisians have found the knockout stages of the Champions League a touch nut to crack in recent seasons as their star names have struggled to come together as a collective to overcome their own vulnerabilities.

Despite the lack of atmosphere that will be in the stadium, this game should still be a good one to watch if the first leg is anything to go buy. Both managers, Thomas Tuchel and Lucian Favre, instruct their sides to play with a high press and high intensity which leads to plenty of chances and goal-filled games.

They both have an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal with Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, Jadon Sancho and Erling Haaland amongst the best players in the world currently in their respective positions so it will be interesting to see how each different personality reacts to playing without a crowd in the stadium.

I backed Dortmund in the reverse leg and to be honest, I saw little in that game which convinced me that PSG are going to do much at all in this competition yet again. With the French title seemingly wrapped up already, the lack of success in the Champions League could spell the end of Tuchel’s time in France with European glory so high up the Qatari owner’s agenda.

Although PSG are tougher to break down than previous iterations of this team, they still seem brittle when tested and although you would not rule out them grabbing a goal or two of their own here, they’re just as likely in my view to concede on the break if Dortmund line-up with plenty of speed at the top end of the pitch.

With only one clean sheet in their last eight games in all competitions, I’d be confident of the Red and Blues conceding again against the most potent attack they’ve faced all season however, Both Teams To sSore odds are unsurprisingly at a short 2/5 with many bookies and that’s a similar case with a fair few of the markets I’m looking to back.

Therefore, I’ve placed money behind a bet builder to try and eek out some value. With Bet365 – Over 1 Goal; Over 27.5 Free-Kicks and Over 3 PSG Corners is 11/10 (Bet365).

Breaking this bet down, I think I have covered most of the background on the goals front but to add to this, both these sides average the most goals per-game (3.67 and 4.04) in Ligue 1 and Bundesliga respectively.

• Dortmund have played 9 games in 2020, scoring 31 goals, averaging over 3 per match.

• PSG have never progressed to the next stage of the Champions League after losing the first leg.

• PSG have never beaten Dortmund in European competition.

ok folks, let's get after'em today, this might be it today
GL

Olympiacos v Wolves | Thursday 12th March 2020, 4:00

Nuno Espirito Santo's men continue their European journey in Greece on Thursday night, against Arsenal's conquerors Olympiakos. The Greeks have a fair record against English teams at home in European competition, having lost only four times out of 16. It's away (barring that trip to the Emirates) that they struggle as they've lost 13 in 16 at Premier League clubs.

Olympiakos' main threat in their Champions League campaign earlier this season was Daniel Podence – he ran Tottenham ragged in the Champions League group stage match in Piraeus. Podence scored a magical goal. Where is Podence now? He's plying his trade at Molineaux after joining Wolves for £16m in the January transfer window.
Yes, another Portuguese international joining Wolves. Whilst Nuno the manager won't complain, Jorge Mendes role in the acquisition of players at Wolves has to be looked into, but that's a story for another day.
First leg of European ties, be it in the Champions League or in this case the Europa League, tend to be cagey affairs, with neither side looking to be out of the tie by the time the second leg starts. You can certainly see that being the case in Greece.
Olympiakos have only lost games in Europe this season. Their record in domestic football is exceptional. They've won 20 and drawn six times so far this season. In fact Arsenal's victory in the first leg of the Last 32 tie was overlooked, in my opinion. It was an exceptional result.
So how will Wolves fair? Well Wolves only defeat away from home in Europe this term was in the last round against Espanyol. However, the Old Gold were 4-0 up from the first leg. They've won in Besiktas and Bratislava and drawn in Braga. What shouldn't be overlooked, is that they've scored in every away game, and with the pace of Diogo Jota and Adama Traore and the excellent target man of skills Raul Jimenez, they will always be a threat.
Olympiakos meanwhile have only failed to score in one home European game this season, the aforementioned Arsenal game. Therefore, Both Teams To Score at 21/20 with Sport Nation looks the value bet here.

Recent Form


Rangers need to make the first leg at Ibrox count and their season will be virtually over if they can’t secure a positive result here.


A 1-0 victory over bottom-half outfit Ross County on Sunday hardly got the pulses racing, courtesy of Ryan Kent’s deflected 77th-minute strike, with that just their second goal in four games now.


In fact, veteran goalkeeper Allan McGregor kept them in the game up until then with a man of the match performance, so confidence in the camp is not sky high at the moment.


Ominously for the Gers, Leverkusen have really hit their stride and are in by far their best form of all season.


They’re currently on a run of eight wins from nine unbeaten matches, with the stalemate coming away at RB Leipzig, while they won both legs in the Last 32 against Porto, as well as home wins over Dortmund and last season’s semi-finalists in this competition Eintracht Frankfurt.


The attack in particular has looked in great shape, netting at least twice in all eight victories, while in 12 games since the winter break, Leverkusen have now scored 32 times as these matches have averaged 3.75 goals per game when including their opponents’ efforts.

Leverkusen have benefited from plenty of home games in their recent schedule, but even on the road they’ve won seven out of 10 going back as far as November, a run which included a victory over leaders Bayern Munich at the Allianz.


Rangers are W7-D2-L4 since late January now, though Leverkusen are of a higher quality than any of their opponents over this spell, and we’d expect them to capitalize on the Gers’ poor form in 2020.


Indeed, Steven Gerrard may have won 11 of 15 unbeaten games at home in Europe since taking the job, but six of these matches came in qualifying rounds against weaker sides, while group stage victories over Feyenoord and Porto came when they were in much better form and challenging on all fronts.

Leverkusen sits at +104

LASK Linz v Manchester United | Thursday 13th March 2020, 1:55

A behind closed doors game is in store in Austria as LASK take on Manchester United. The lack of fans obviously clearly lessens the home sides advantage but I still believe they are a great bet at 57/25 with MarathonBet in the Draw No Bet market.

The Linz side currently find themselves six points clear at the top of the Austrian Bundesliga and they have been particularly impressive in this competition. In the group stages they beat Rosenborg home and away and enjoyed three goal victories at home to both Sporting CP and PSV Eindhoven. They then knocked AZ Alkmaar out with relative ease, so I don’t think they will be daunted by a visit from Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men.

United have struggled away from home in this competition, being comfortably outplayed in a 0-0 draw with Alkmaar in the group stages as well as losing 2-1 at Astana and a fortuitous 1-0 victory over Partizan.

I was surprised to see Solskjaer rest so many players in both games against Club Bruges so I don’t expect him to play his full side here and with the coronavirus dominating the agenda, I struggle to see a game without fans being particularly entertaining.

DRAW looks worth a shot OLYMPIAKOS/Wolves +208
GL

Olympiakos vs Wolverhampton Wanderers / Match
Winner (3 way) / Draw -162 (Pending)

Leverkusen sits at +104..........W
DRAW OLYMPIAKOS/Wolves +208....W