Monday, 09/02/2019 (919) TORONTO vs. (920) ATLANTA
Favoring: TORONTO on the money line.
Play On - Any team (TORONTO) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA<=3.70), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season
(40-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.0%, +32.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3 +2.5 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (921) SEATTLE vs. (922) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: SEATTLE on the money line.
Play On - Any team (SEATTLE) - average AL offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a good NL starter (ERA<=3.70), with a decent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season
(40-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.0%, +32.8 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3 +2.5 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (907) SAN DIEGO vs. (908) ARIZONA
Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (ARIZONA) - with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL), with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games
(70-19 since 1997.) (78.7%, +43 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (14-6 +5.2 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (917) CHI WHITE SOX vs. (918) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the money line.
Play On - All favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
(73-14 since 1997.) (83.9%, +46.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (915) BALTIMORE vs. (916) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (BALTIMORE) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.50) -AL, in September games
(30-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.2%, +27.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (919) TORONTO vs. (920) ATLANTA
Favoring: TORONTO on the run line.
Play Against - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (ATLANTA) - good NL offensive team (>=4.7 runs/game) against a good AL starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20), cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games
(42-15 since 1997.) (73.7%, +28.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (917) CHI WHITE SOX vs. (918) CLEVELAND
Favoring: CLEVELAND on the run line.
Play Against - Road underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+100 or higher) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start
(50-14 since 1997.) (78.1%, +31.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-4 +1.7 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (915) BALTIMORE vs. (916) TAMPA BAY
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the run line.
Play Against - Any team against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - poor hitting team (AVG <=.260) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70) -AL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
(81-36 since 1997.) (69.2%, +42.1 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +4.2 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (907) SAN DIEGO vs. (908) ARIZONA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent starting a pitcher who walked <=1 hitters each of his last 2 outings
(51-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +31 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-6 +5.4 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (905) SAN FRANCISCO vs. (906) ST LOUIS
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ST LOUIS) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (NL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than 30%
(50-19 since 1997.) (72.5%, +29.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Monday, 09/02/2019 (909) COLORADO vs. (910) LA DODGERS
Favoring: LA DODGERS against the spread.
COLORADO is 15-39 (-29.4 Units) against the run line in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was COLORADO 4.6, OPPONENT 6.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (919) TORONTO vs. (920) ATLANTA
Favoring: ATLANTA against the spread.
ATLANTA is 9-0 (+10 Units) against the run line in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 8, OPPONENT 3.8 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (903) PHILADELPHIA vs. (904) CINCINNATI
Favoring: Under on the total.
CINCINNATI is 22-7 UNDER (+14.6 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (917) CHI WHITE SOX vs. (918) CLEVELAND
Favoring: Over on the total.
CLEVELAND is 17-3 OVER (+13.9 Units) in home games after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 7.8, OPPONENT 5.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (903) PHILADELPHIA vs. (904) CINCINNATI
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA on the money line.
DREW SMYLY is 9-0 (+11.8 Units) against the money line vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was SMYLY 6.6, OPPONENT 3.1 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (907) SAN DIEGO vs. (908) ARIZONA
Favoring: ARIZONA on the money line.
MIKE LEAKE is 20-9 (+15 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LEAKE 5.9, OPPONENT 4.4 - (Rating = 2*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (921) SEATTLE vs. (922) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: SEATTLE against the spread.
KYLE HENDRICKS is 1-11 (-12.3 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was HENDRICKS 2.2, OPPONENT 4.5 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (921) SEATTLE vs. (922) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: SEATTLE against the spread.
KYLE HENDRICKS is 3-13 (-10.9 Units) against the run line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season.
The average score was HENDRICKS 3.1, OPPONENT 4.2 - (Rating = 1*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (921) SEATTLE vs. (922) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: Under on the total.
KYLE HENDRICKS is 23-6 UNDER (+16.9 Units) as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HENDRICKS 4, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (911) TEXAS vs. (912) NY YANKEES
Favoring: Under on the total.
MIKE MINOR is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.
The average score was MINOR 3.6, OPPONENT 3 - (Rating = 3*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (921) SEATTLE vs. (922) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: Under on the total.
KYLE HENDRICKS is 18-5 UNDER (+12.9 Units) as a home favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HENDRICKS 4.1, OPPONENT 3.6 - (Rating = 2*)

Monday, 09/02/2019 (921) SEATTLE vs. (922) CHICAGO CUBS
Favoring: Under on the total.
KYLE HENDRICKS is 20-7 UNDER (+12.7 Units) as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HENDRICKS 4.3, OPPONENT 3.7 - (Rating = 2*)

Biggest Public Sides in MLB for Labor Day:

87%: Twins (-200) at DET
80%: Dodgers (-330) vs. COL
78%: Cardinals (-190) vs. SF
78%: Rays (-290) vs. BAL
76%: Indians (-230) vs. CHW
76%: Cubs (-300) vs. SEA

Buehler got off to a slow start this season, but he’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the second half. He’s dropped his ERA to 2.15 while increasing his K/9 to 12.87.

He’s been particularly dominant at home this season, and he’ll take the mound at Dodgers Stadium today in an excellent matchup vs. the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies have struggled mightily when facing a right-hander away from Coors this season, ranking 29th in wRC+.

His Vegas data in this matchup is absolutely elite. His -321 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite of the day, while his 3.2 opponent implied team total ranks second. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically dominated on FanDuel, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.60.

Mike Soroka is another strong value today on FanDuel, and he has significantly more upside vs. the Toronto Blue Jays. Justin Verlander absolutely dominated the Blue Jays yesterday, recording 14 strikeouts and zero hits over nine innings.

Soroka obviously isn’t Verlander, but he’s still a pretty darn good pitcher. He’s pitched to a 2.44 ERA and 3.21 FIP this season despite a K/9 of just 6.89. His opponent implied team total of 3.6 ranks second on the main slate, while his moneyline odds of -252 rank third.

Still, what really sets this matchup apart is the Blue Jays’ strikeout rate. Their projected lineup has struck out on 36.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which is the worst splits-adjusted mark on the slate.