let's keep it rolling with another action packed card tonight
GL

The Wildcats (18-16-1 against the spread) have won three of their past four games ATS, including their last-second cover vs. Wofford (+5.5).

Meanwhile, the Cougars (22-12-2 ATS) have covered in four of their past six duels, as their most recent one pushed them into the Sweet 16 after falling short a season ago.

Where’s the value in this Midwest Region matchup? Let’s break it down.

Kentucky F PJ Washington’s Status Crucial
The 6-foot-8 forward (14.8 points per game) has missed Kentucky’s first two NCAA Tournament games with a left foot sprain. But he posted a video on Wednesday, in which he shed his walking boot.

It’s unknown whether or not Washington will suit up against the Cougars, creating uncertainty for backers of either side. The sophomore isn’t just valuable because of his three-level scoring prowess, but he’s also tallied an above-average block rate (4.7%) among qualified players.

Even if the sophomore plays, I’d expect Wildcats coach John Calipari to keep him on a pitch clock, limiting his effectiveness against an underrated Houston frontcourt. Washington would still provide an impact, but don’t let his status dominate your perception of this matchup.

Which Interior Attack Stands Pat?
With or without Washington, much of Kentucky’s offense stems from inside the arc. Not only has it tallied a mere 14.9% 3-point scoring rate in its first two affairs in the big dance, but it’s produced the 52nd-highest 2-point scoring rate across college basketball.

Nevertheless, the Cougars have surrendered the 50th-lowest 2-point scoring percentage (45.4%).

Kelvin Sampson’s Houston team, guided by its tenacious backcourt of Corey Davis Jr. and Galen Robinson, delivers a handful of ball pressure to keep the opposition out of the paint. Houston’s stout bigs — Breaon Brady and Fabian White — match up well against Wildcats 6-foot-8 bruiser Reid Travis (11.5 ppg), too.

The one area Houston could get exposed is at the line. It’s allowed the 13th-highest scoring rate (23.4%) in that department, while the Wildcats have tallied the 15th-highest scoring percentage (22.8%).

The Cougars are in position to negate some of those concerns, though, with their 62nd-rated defensive rebounding rate (25.6%). The ‘Cats thrive off second-chance opportunities to spark their free-throw surge, so Houston will need to continue to deliver its gang rebounding at a high-level.

Wildcats’ Leaky Perimeter Defense
Houston’s motion offense presents the 78th-highest perimeter scoring rate (35.8%), with a bevy 3-point gunners in Armoni Brooks, Davis, Dejon Jarreau and Robinson, who all shoot at least 35%. All four of them can handle the ball, creating mismatches off the dribble drive.

John Calipari’s unit has been susceptible from behind the arc, yielding the 59th-highest 3-point scoring percentage (35.7%) in the nation. Even though Wildcats guards Ashton Hagans and Tyler Herro are sound on-ball defenders, they caught a break via Wofford’s cold-shooting performance (29.6%) in the Round of 32.

Expect the Cougars’ savvy unit to make the Wildcats pay from that vicinity, and their 21st-rated offensive rebounding rate (34.6%) should present a challenge for the opposition to control the pace (65.8 possessions per 40 minutes) as well.

One edge in the Sweet 16 and later in the NCAA Tournament is fading the public. In general, taking undersupported teams in the Big Dance has been profitable: Since 2004, teams getting less than 50% of the spread bets have hit at a 52.1% rate. Favorites in that scenario have gone 55.2% historically, good for a 7.3% Return on Investment.

But most of that value is in the Round of 32, where those favorites have hit at a 64.5% rate for a 25.1% ROI. In the Sweet 16, for whatever reason, those favorites are just 40% ATS for a -20.6% ROI. It’s a small sample, but I found it interesting that the value on favorites declined in the tournament’s second weekend.

Don’t worry, though: There are still profitable situations in which you can fade the public in the second weekend and later. The biggest caveat, of course, is that the sample size on these trends is small — there just haven’t been that many Sweet 16, Elite 8 and Final Four games in the last decade, obviously

Really undersupported unders — bets getting less than 35% of the action — have done well historically in the second weekend on, going 52-39-1 (57.1%) for a 10.6% Return on Investment

Of note, these situations have not been profitable ones to focus on earlier in the tournament: These over/unders have a negative ROI in the first weekend. Just in the Sweet 16, however, these unders have gone 33-18-1, good for a 24.7% ROI since 2004.

Perhaps with fewer and more public games, the bigger market in the second weekend inflates the lines to where it’s more profitable than usual to go against the mainstream. There’s one match so far this weekend:

Under 119.5 in Virginia-Oregon, March 28 at 9:59 p.m. ET
It seems the public has seen that incredibly low number — North Carolina-Auburn on Friday is at 164, for reference — and thought there’s no way it should be that low. As a result, 67% of bets are on the over.

Fading the Sweet 16 Public on Spreads
Likewise, there seems to be some value on fading the public on spreads. Per Bet Labs, underdogs getting half the bets or fewer in the Sweet 16 on have performed well, going 74-65-6 (53.2%), good for a 3.5% ROI. We can do better, though: If those underdogs aren’t top-four seeds, they’ve gone 36-16-3 (69.2%), good for a 32.5% ROI.

Again, it’s a small sample, but impressively those lower seed underdogs have covered by an average of 3.59 points per game. Again, these mainstream games have provided some value to contrarian bettors. There’s one match so far this weekend, which is a sad one personally as a UNC fan:

Auburn +5 vs. North Carolina, March 29 at 7:29 p.m. ET
Is this a reverse jinx? Quite possibly.

This will be the first time Michigan State and LSU have met since 1979.

Magic Johnson led the Spartans to the national title that year, beating a Dale Brown-led LSU team in the Sweet 16. But there’s a bit of a coaching difference in the 2019 version, with the esteemed Tom Izzo taking on interim coach Tony Benford.

LSU (19-14-1 against the spread) — which did not cover against Yale or Maryland — has a physical brand of play that relies on offensive rebounds and steals. Michigan State (25-11 ATS), meanwhile, leads the nation in assists per field goal made and has a top-10 rating in adjusted efficiency on both sides of the ball.

Will Michigan State’s Depth Be a Factor?
While the coaching advantage sways heavily in favor of Michigan State, there is a discrepancy on the number of players getting minutes.

LSU relies on a deep rotation, with at least 12 minutes of play from eight different players in the Maryland game. Michigan State has a rotation of only six players, with Xavier Tillman and Nick Ward at center accounting for more than 50% of the playing time with starters Cassius Winston, Matt McQuaid, Aaron Henry and Kenny Goins.

The loss of Kyle Ahrens to injury has left the Spartans short on bench minutes.

Havoc Is Key for LSU
The knock on the Big Ten is the number of athletic teams to challenge Michigan State. The Spartans are one of the best teams in the country in plenty of advanced statistics. They’re also a top 25 team in free throws, 3-point percentage, offensive rebounds and 2-point defense and blocks.

On paper, the Spartans have a massive advantage in all areas except one: Turnovers.

Minnesota was able to generate 26 points off 22 turnovers against Michigan State in the Round of 32. And LSU ranks sixth in steal percentage, which could be troublesome for a Michigan State team that ranks 207th in turnover percentage. The Spartans also do not create any havoc on the other side of the ball, with a rank of 344th in opponent turnovers.

If LSU wins this game, expect the Tigers to take advantage of turnovers and a shallow depth chart against Michigan State.

LSU Is Getting How Many Points?
The last time LSU lost by more than six points? Nov. 25, also known as the Sunday of Thanksgiving week.

Even in losses to Houston, Florida, Florida State and Arkansas, the Tigers were able to keep it close. And while Michigan State is the more talented team, the Spartans have yet to face anything in the havoc department like LSU.

The amount of points is begging for action on LSU.

Fellow Kentucky bettors should worry too. Here are five reasons why you should be cautious with that -3:

1. PJ Washington’s status remains uncertain.
First and foremost, we still don’t know if Washington will play, and if he does play, for how long. Washington had his cast removed earlier this week and he said he feels good, but neither he nor John Calipari would confirm he is ready to go, when asked several times during Kentucky’s media session on Thursday.

Calipari went as far to say he will be stunned if Washington plays more than 18 minutes, and that he won’t be surprised if Washington decides not to play at all.

The thought process around the Bluegrass is that Washington will give it a try, but everyone is guessing at this point because we won’t truly know until the ball is tipped late Friday night.

If the worst-case scenario occurs and Kentucky has to go without Washington, I question if Kentucky can win the game, not just cover the three points.

2. Kentucky’s offense did not look good against Wofford.
Operating under the assumption that Washington won’t be back to regular All-American form, I worry about UK’s offense. So much of what Kentucky has done runs through him, and in the one challenging game without him, against Wofford, things looked way out of sync on the offensive end.
Kentucky shot only 40.3% from the field in the game, down from 48% before Washington went down. Kentucky was 21.3% from outside, down from its 36% clip on the year.

The key to surviving the first two rounds without Washington was Reid Travis bullying his way through mismatches, but the competition takes a major step up in the second weekend of the tournament and Travis can’t be called on to carry the team for a third straight game.

3. Houston’s defense is for real.
Kelvin Sampson has one of the best defenses in all of college basketball, so Kentucky will have to fight for every basket, with or without Washington.

As I just mentioned, Kentucky’s half-court offense was horrible through much of the game against Wofford; against Houston, getting a good look will be even more difficult.

Some numbers that stand out: The Cougars give up only 20 made baskets per game, which ranks third nationally. Opponents shoot only 36% from the field against Houston, the lowest opponent field goal percentage of any team in college basketball.

4. Corey Davis scares me.
If you made me choose between the matchup of UK’s Tyler Herro and Houston’s Corey Davis at guard, the homer in me would probably take Herro. That being said, Davis is not someone you want your team to have to defend, especially the way he is playing right now.

In his first tournament game, Davis had 26 points, seven rebounds and six assists with no turnovers. He followed it up with another 21 points and six rebounds in the win over Ohio State. He hit a combined 10 three-pointers in the two games.

Of all the players who advanced to the Sweet 16, Davis ranks fourth in scoring at 23.5 points per game, behind Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Zion Williamson (Duke) and Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga). That’s pretty good company.

5. Houston’s athleticism beat LSU and LSU’s athleticism beat Kentucky.
I try not to buy into the transitive property of college basketball, but I would be lying if I said Houston’s win over LSU doesn’t add to my concern.

I was there when LSU beat Kentucky in Rupp Arena earlier this year, and LSU’s athleticism is the reason it was able to pull off the upset. The Tigers’ interior length and athleticism were too much for Reid Travis, who couldn’t match what LSU brought to the inside game.

Houston beat that same LSU team (one of only five teams to do so) by controlling the glass and playing great defense in the second half. That game, which took place back in December, will have no impact on what happens in Friday’s NCAA Tournament game, but it does prove that Houston has the horses to run with the cream of the crop of the SEC.

Friday, 03/29/2019 (675) CS-BAKERSFIELD vs. (676) WI-GREEN BAY
Favoring: CS-BAKERSFIELD against the spread.
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (CS-BAKERSFIELD) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (>=60 shots/game), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less
(31-7 since 1997.) (81.6%, +23.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1 +0.9 units).

Friday, 03/29/2019 (673) AUBURN vs. (674) N CAROLINA
Favoring: N CAROLINA against the spread.
Play On - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (N CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (67-74 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games
(64-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +34.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-6 +2.4 units).

Friday, 03/29/2019 (673) AUBURN vs. (674) N CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (N CAROLINA) - after a win by 15 points or more against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
(38-8 since 1997.) (82.6%, +29.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Friday, 03/29/2019 (673) AUBURN vs. (674) N CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (N CAROLINA) - after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
(26-4 since 1997.) (86.7%, +21.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).

Friday, 03/29/2019 (671) HOUSTON vs. (672) KENTUCKY
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams (>=+6 reb/game) after 15+ games
(68-20 since 1997.) (77.3%, +46 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Friday, 03/29/2019 (671) HOUSTON vs. (672) KENTUCKY
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 60.5 to 65.5 (KENTUCKY) - in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams (>=+6 reb/game) after 15+ games
(68-20 since 1997.) (77.3%, +46 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

I really really love Bakersfield tonight

Friday, 03/29/2019 (667) LSU vs. (668) MICHIGAN ST
Favoring: MICHIGAN ST against the spread.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-0 ATS (+10 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 78.7, OPPONENT 66.2 - (Rating = 6*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (667) LSU vs. (668) MICHIGAN ST
Favoring: MICHIGAN ST against the spread.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-5 ATS (+16.5 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season.
The average score was MICHIGAN ST 78, OPPONENT 62.9 - (Rating = 5*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (669) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (670) DUKE
Favoring: Under on the total.
DUKE is 18-3 UNDER (+14.7 Units) after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was DUKE 81.1, OPPONENT 63 - (Rating = 5*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (667) LSU vs. (668) MICHIGAN ST
Favoring: Over on the total.
LSU is 18-2 OVER (+15.8 Units) after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LSU 77.7, OPPONENT 83.6 - (Rating = 5*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (669) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (670) DUKE
Favoring: Under on the total.
DUKE is 24-8 UNDER (+15.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
The average score was DUKE 82.8, OPPONENT 66.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (669) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (670) DUKE
Favoring: Under on the total.
DUKE is 19-5 UNDER (+13.5 Units) when playing only their 2nd game in a week this season.
The average score was DUKE 81.7, OPPONENT 65.2 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (671) HOUSTON vs. (672) KENTUCKY
Favoring: HOUSTON on the first half line.
HOUSTON is 29-8 (+20.2 Units) against the 1rst half line after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 38.2, OPPONENT 29.3 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (671) HOUSTON vs. (672) KENTUCKY
Favoring: HOUSTON on the first half line.
HOUSTON is 18-3 (+14.7 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 38, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (671) HOUSTON vs. (672) KENTUCKY
Favoring: HOUSTON on the first half line.
HOUSTON is 25-7 (+17.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 36.1, OPPONENT 28.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (671) HOUSTON vs. (672) KENTUCKY
Favoring: HOUSTON on the first half line.
HOUSTON is 23-6 (+16.4 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 36.9, OPPONENT 29.1 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (675) CS-BAKERSFIELD vs. (676) WI-GREEN BAY
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
WI-GREEN BAY is 9-0 UNDER (+9 Units) the 1rst half total off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WI-GREEN BAY 34, OPPONENT 34.9 - (Rating = 4*)

Friday, 03/29/2019 (669) VIRGINIA TECH vs. (670) DUKE
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
VIRGINIA TECH is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) the 1rst half total after having won 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VIRGINIA TECH 34.6, OPPONENT 28.9 - (Rating = 3*)

All eyes will be on the nation’s capital late Friday night when No. 1 overall seed Duke (-7) takes on Virginia Tech with an Elite Eight trip on the line. I personally think there is value on both the side and total in this game.

Let’s take a closer look at the game’s the most important matchup — as well as a few other ancillary factors. I will also explain how I came up with my line, which is extremely dependent on how much you think Zion Williamson and Justin Robinson are worth to the spread. I will then close with my pick for both the side and total.

Critical Matchup in Duke-Virginia Tech
Normally, after the No. 1 overall seed survives a scare in the second round like Duke just did last weekend, I’d look to back said team in the market where I might get some value in a bounce-back scenario.

However, that’s not the case here since this is such an ideal matchup for Virginia Tech. It’s no longer a secret that the key to beating Duke is to force them to shoot the 3 — by far its biggest weakness.

In fact, the Blue Devils entered the 2019 NCAA Tournament as the worst 3P shooting team in the entire field at 30.2% (see table below). And their current 30.7% clip from beyond the arc ranks 329th in the nation — tied with Georgia Tech.

We saw what UCF did in a game it honestly should’ve won outright. The Golden Knights ran a collapsed zone, daring Duke to shoot from the perimeter. And it worked like a charm, as the 13-point underdogs were a layup away from pulling off the stunner.

Well, Virginia Tech doesn’t need to do anything differently on the defensive end to get Duke to shoot 3s. It’s already Va Tech’s primary focus on defense.

The Hokies will go under every screen and aggressively help in order to prevent opponents from getting to the rim.

And Buzz Williams’ teams have executed this scheme flawlessly, forcing opponents to shoot more 3s than 2s this season. Only Monmouth has a higher defensive 3-point rate (3PA/FGA) than Virginia Tech’s 50.4%.

Their underlying metrics are so similar to a successful zone that KenPom shows Virginia Tech’s defensive fingerprint as “mostly zone.” When in reality, the Hokies run almost nothing but man (over 95%, per Synergy).

It’s a man defense that gets zone results. A “mone,” if you will. And a potential Monet against a Blue Devils team that simply can’t shoot.

Other Angles to Consider
You can’t talk about Virginia Tech without mentioning the return of guard Justin Robinson.

The four-year player is the catalyst of the offense, running the show with ease and finding VT’s plethora of shooters on the perimeter. His presence will be especially critical against an elite defender in Tre Jones.

There won’t be any intimidation factor, as the Hokies won’t fear the stage or their familiar conference foe. The more experienced Hokies will also enjoy the luxury of being able to play looser. All of the pressure will be on the inexperienced Blue Devils.

There were questions about the status of Virginia Tech sharp-shooter Ty Outlaw, but he has been cleared to play after passing a drug test.

Michigan St -6

This is a tough matchup for LSU. Michigan St has the experience and the coaching advantage in this one. They are a pretty good transition defense and they are very good pick and roll defenders. Surprisingly, I think Sparty has the advantage in the paint here with the three-headed monster of Ward, Tillman, and Goins. Goins can do most everything Naz Reid can do (in terms of perimeter play and offensive versatility)

MSU is no.1 nationally in A/FGM (assist rate). I expect this offensive cohesion to exploit LSU. LSU lives on turning over their opp. W/ the way MSU has played over the 2 months, I don't see LSU forcing many TOs. Since the L to ILL, MSU's scoring mgn has been +11.46 (L13 games).

Lastly - I find it extremely telling/curious that LSU has lost only 1 game this year by more than 6 points, yet oddsmakers still gave this an opening line of 6. I tend to believe oddsmakers with these types of lines, especially when there are so few games for them to line.

Virginia Tech +7.5 vs. Duke
This ACC rematch, in which the Hokies defeated the Blue Devils in their Zion Williamson and Justin Robinson-less duel, will come down to pace.

The Hokies went to a matchup zone in most recent meeting, forcing Duke to utilize the 25th-lowest 3-point clip (30.7%) in the country. Expect Buzz Williams’ crew to create the same issues this time around, and its ball pressure should be even more effective with Robinson leading it from around the arc.

As athletic as the Blue Devils are, they showcased an inability to execute against UCF’s zone in the Round of 32, and Va. Tech’s rotations will be much quicker.

The Hokies rebounded fairly well out of their zone, too, as Duke notched a 29-28 advantage on the glass. They may aim to push the tempo a bit more with Robinson (13.4 points per game) pushing the controls, but they’ve tallied the 22nd-lowest Adjusted Tempo because of their effective half-court sets through the 6-foot-10 Kerry Blackshear Jr.

Blackshear torched the Blue Devils for 23 points (7-of-11 shooting) on Feb. 26. Williamson’s presence won’t be able to slow him down much, and he’ll set things up for Va. Tech’s ninth-ranked 3-point clip (39.5%). After tallying 1.22 points per possession in round one, expect Duke’s third-rated Adjusted Defensive Efficiency to struggle again.

The CIT is back in action as well as Cal State Bakersfield and Wisconsin Green Bay will meet in a quarterfinal matchup.

Casual bettors obviously have zero interest in this game — tonight’s Auburn-UNC NCAA Tournament game has generated more than nine times the number of bets as CSU Bakersfield-Green Bay.

You got any stats in ACC vs ACC play? Ill take tourney?^64/32 anything youve got? Of course 16 would be perfect?


I know ACC dogs strubble historically but we dont get many of these matchups though, cheers.

of course no interest but Bakersfield should pound GB

I predict 82-74 Baker!