feel free to jump in here tonight
GL

With coach Brett Brown, the 76ers are 7-22 SU and 11-18 ATS, averaging a 99-110 loss, when playing with 3+ days rest. Philadelphia is a 5.5 point home favorite over Heat coming out of the All Star break and will be without C Joel Embiid.

Thursday, 02/21/2019 (507) BOSTON vs. (508) MILWAUKEE
Favoring: MILWAUKEE on the first half line.
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (MILWAUKEE) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record
(29-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.9%, +22.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).


Thursday, 02/21/2019 (509) HOUSTON vs. (510) LA LAKERS
Favoring: LA LAKERS on the first half line.
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (LA LAKERS) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off an upset loss as a road favorite
(80-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +39.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2 +0.8 units).

Even though they have a reputation as a high scoring team, the Rockets have actually shown good value betting the under on their team scoring totals. In road games, Houston is 20-10 Under team totals of 115-121 under coach Mike D'Antoni, including 6-2 TY

Most Public Bets
Over 233 in Rockets-Lakers: 73% of bets
Over 219 in Heat-Sixers: 68% of bets
Sixers -5.5 vs. Heat: 68% of bets
Over 230.5 in Blazers-Nets: 66% of bets
Over 221 in Suns-Cavs: 66% of bets

Thursday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate. Right now, there are three players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +9.0 (which is absurd) on DraftKings:

Boban Marjanovic ($3,500) vs. Heat: +13.55 Projected Plus/Minus
DeMarcus Cousins ($6,100) vs. Kings: +13.25 Projected Plus/Minus
Caris LeVert ($5,100) vs. Blazers: +9.37 Projected Plus/Minus
We hit above on Boban, who is indeed the slate’s best value with Embiid out. Cousins is also an intriguing option at just $6,100 given that he’s off his minutes limit now and is facing a Kings team that ranks 27th in defensive rebound rate.

We also have a new metric this year at FantasyLabs called “Leverage Score,” which combines our ceiling projections and our ownership projections to identify potential undervalued GPP plays.

One player with a high Leverage Score tonight on FanDuel is Suns center Deandre Ayton, who has a high ceiling projection and Projected Plus/Minus, but should have low ownership.

Suns at Cavs: The Suns are 12-18 ATS on the road, but the Cavs are 12-17 at home.

Heat at 76ers: The Heat are 18-11 ATS on the road and 17-10-1 as underdogs.

Blazers at Nets: The Blazers are 20-11 as favorites.

Celtics at Bucks: The Celtics are 10-16-1 ATS on the road; the Bucks are 17-11 at home.

Rockets at Lakers: The under is 20-8 in Lakers home games.

Kings at Warriors: The over is 25-12 in Kings conference games.

OVER 27.5 points for Steph Curry: He's scored 42 and 35 vs the Kings this season and has traditionally been great in the first game back after the break scoring 44, 35, and 31 the past 3 seasons. Kings allow a lot of free throws vs guards and the 4th most PPG on the road.

Over the last decade, 60 total teams have entered the All-Star break with a lead in their respective division.

Of those 60 teams, 53 ended up winning the division at season’s end (88.3%). None of the seven teams to make a comeback to win the division in the second half did so from more than four games back of the division leader.

With the Raptors, Bucks and Warriors holding at least 5.5-game division leads, it will most likely be the Rockets, Hornets or Nuggets that could eventually give up division leads in the second half.

Second Half Experience
If Vogel is on one side of the spectrum, Erik Spoelstra is on the other. The Miami Heat coach is a combined 130-109-5 (54.5%) against the spread over the last 25 games of the regular season since becoming head coach in 2008. Spoelstra is the third-most profitable coach in the league over the second half in that span.

The Heat are currently fighting for their playoff lives, hovering just under a 50% winning percentage. Under Spoelstra, the Heat are 85-67-4 ATS (55.9%) in the second half when they have a winning percentage below 60% — which basically means they’re fighting for a playoff berth. In this spot, Spoelstra is the most profitable coach in the NBA since 2008, which should keep Miami in close games down the stretch in a tight Southeast division.

The Perfect Analogy
Betting on sports is about more than just picking winners. Straight-up winners, that is.

The Golden State Warriors are the best team in the NBA. Nobody disputes that fact. Since the beginning of last season, they own the second-best winning percentage in the NBA in the regular season (71.2%), behind the Raptors.

When you look against the spread though, the tables flip quick. Since the beginning of last season, the Warriors are 58-80-1 (42%) against the spread, the second-worst mark in the NBA, ahead of just the Cavaliers.

If a bettor would have wagered a $100 on the Warriors in every single regular season games since the start of last season, they would be down $2,515.

West On West Crime
From a results standpoint, the 2018-19 season has been known largely as a home bettors paradise.

Home teams are 448-404-11 (52.6%) against the spread this season. A $100 bettor wagering on every home team would be up $2,196 this season.

Since 2005, no regular season has ended with home bettors actually turning a profit, with last season coming the closest, losing bettors just $589 (on a $100 per game basis).

So where is all this home profit coming from? Mostly in the Western Conference.

This season, the West has dominated conference home games against the spread, going 164-112-2 (59.4%) ATS. Compare that to the East teams, which are just 50.7% at home against conference opponents this season.

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Heat (moved from +7.5 to +5.5)

Given the option to bet on one of the Eastern Conference favorites on their home court, most bettors aren’t passing up the chance. Seventy-one percent, to be exact, are laying the points with the Sixers against the visiting Heat tonight.

Sharps, however, aren’t among the majority,
sharps have caused six instances of market-wide line movement by hitting the Heat at numbers ranging from +7.5 to +6. It’s worth noting, if you’re looking to follow this play, that they’ve yet to trigger a signal at the current number.

On top of the signals, money percentages also reveal professional action landing on Miami. The 29% of bettors on the Heat have generated an impressive 56% of actual dollars wagered, meaning bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are taking the points.

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Heat (moved from +7.5 to +5.5)

Given the option to bet on one of the Eastern Conference favorites on their home court, most bettors aren’t passing up the chance. Seventy-one percent, to be exact, are laying the points with the Sixers against the visiting Heat tonight.

Sharps, however, aren’t among the majority,
sharps have caused six instances of market-wide line movement by hitting the Heat at numbers ranging from +7.5 to +6. It’s worth noting, if you’re looking to follow this play, that they’ve yet to trigger a signal at the current number.

On top of the signals, money percentages also reveal professional action landing on Miami. The 29% of bettors on the Heat have generated an impressive 56% of actual dollars wagered, meaning bigger bets — the ones more likely to be made by sharps — are taking the points.

Most Public Bets
Over 233 in Rockets-Lakers: 73% of bets
Over 219 in Heat-Sixers: 68% of bets
Sixers -5.5 vs. Heat: 68% of bets
Over 230.5 in Blazers-Nets: 66% of bets
Over 221 in Suns-Cavs: 66% of bets