The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
|
|
|
|
|
|
msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
|
Saints/Ravens U 50
The best defense in the league will clash against the best offense in the league.
A +24% bets vs. dollars differential has dropped the total down to 50, and I’m in agreement. I think this would be a solid play regardless.
Winds between 12 and 16 mph will be swirling in Baltimore, which should impact any long passes and field-goal attempts.
The Ravens have only closed with a total of 50 or higher once with Joe Flacco starting at M&T Bank Stadium: in 2015 against the Chargers. So this total is historically high for the situation. The Ravens have leaned to the under at home with Flacco (55.6%, 8.7% return on investment), too.
When Flacco starts at home with an average wind of 5 mph or higher, the under is 28-16 (63.6%, 24.6%), including 11-2 with an average greater than 10 mph. In those 13 games, opponents have averaged only 12.1 points.
I would be hard-pressed to not again mention the incredible second-half defense Baltimore has played. In addition to not allowing a second-half touchdown, the defense has allowed less than 20 net yards per drive, which is the best in the NFL by more than five yards.
Opponents’ 36 total second-half drives (tied for fifth most in the league) have started with the Ravens leading by an average of 9.6 points, which is the NFL’s highest lead in that spot
|
10-21-18 09:48 PM |
|
|
| |
|
|