let's have a great weekend folks !
GL

AUGUST 22, 2018 FEATURED, FOOTBALL LEAGUE TIPS, TIPS
FOOTBALL LEAGUE shares his verdict on Friday night’s live Championship fixture between Middlesbrough and West Brom.

Middlesbrough v West Brom | Friday 24th August 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Friday’s live Championship encounter takes us up to the Riverside Stadium, where unbeaten Middlesbrough are up against free-flowing West Bromwich Albion. Boro have looked solid if unspectacular in the new campaign under notoriously rigid boss Tony Pulis, but the challenge of the Baggies could end a run of three league clean sheets.

The Baggies
Big Darren Moore’s side fired a magnificent seven past Queens Park Rangers at the Hawthorns last weekend with ultra-attacking alumni Jay Rodriguez, Dwight Gayle and Matt Phillips all finding the net and Leicester loanee Harvey Barnes at his very best in the creative department.

The Midlands outfit were very difficult to judge coming into the new campaign and a 2-1 home loss to relegation candidates Bolton on the opening day didn’t do them any favours.

Since then, the Baggies have banged in 12 goals in three games, conceding five and taking seven points from a possible nine. All four contests have seen both teams score, including an exhilarating 4-3 win at defence-minded Norwich.

Boro
In contrast, Middlesbrough have shut out Bristol City, Birmingham and Sheffield United after their last gasp 2-2 draw with Millwall on the opening day. Under the former WBA boss, the hosts saw both teams score in 11 of 21 fixtures (52%) last term and I expect the Reds to regress after selling Ben Gibson and replacing him with susceptible brute Aden Flint.

The angle
Boro have found the net in each of their last 10 home league matches, while the away side have scored in nine of their 10 contests under Darren Moore’s stewardship. Both sides have in-form forwards in Martin Braithwaite, Britt Assombalonga, Jay Rodriguez and Dwight Gayle possessing a serious threat to the opposition.

The visitors are firing 14.5 shots on goal per game on average at present, the third best total in the Championship, while conceding 14.3 on average, the fourth highest tally. Boro are only one place behind West Brom in shots conceded with 13.5 per game and I expect both nets to bulge on Friday night. Take the 5/6 (Marathon) for both teams to score.

These are lean years for the Bundesliga.

Bayern Munich have taken their domination of the league to new heights. They are now six-time defending champions.

Last season they won the league by a remarkable 21 points despite firing manager Carlo Ancelotti at the end of September.

Bayern had a disastrous first month to the season, and still had the league more or less wrapped up by Christmas. It’s no wonder that this year they’re -650 to win the league.

There was a time when the rest of the Bundesliga, even if those teams weren’t competitive, were at least fun. A high-octane style of pressing in midfield, high lines, made play interesting, if not for the faint of heart. An ethos of “win the ball in midfield, and if that fails, clear it off the goal line” isn’t for everybody, but it’s great for neutrals.

Sadly, those days are gone. The managers who instituted that style, guys such as Jurgen Klopp, Thomas Tuchel and Roger Schmidt, are all off plying their trade elsewhere.

Now the prevailing tendency is for teams to muddy up the midfield at all costs, slow the game down and prevent opponents from wreaking the kind of havoc that once reigned. It’s just less fun.

The Presumptive Favorite
Bayern are under new management. After Ancelotti’s ouster, old managerial standby Jupp Heynckes took over on an interim basis, but with the job done, he returned to a life of happy retirement.

Bayern then brought in Niko Kovac to take the reins on a permanent basis. Kovac comes from Eintracht Frankfurt, where after taking over in March of 2015, he helped the team narrowly avoid relegation before leading them to 11th- and eighth-place finishes in his two seasons in charge.

His major accomplishment was leading Frankfurt to victory in Germany’s domestic cup last season, where he beat Bayern in the finals.

There’s nothing particularly special about Kovac’s resume. Frankfurt were a very average squad last season, with a flat goal differential of 45 goals for and 45 goals against, which was slightly displaced from their xG of 41 expected goals scored and 41 expected goals conceded, but ended up at the same place.

Then again, Bayern don’t need anything spectacular in a manager — they just need somebody who won’t mess up the overwhelming talent they have at their disposal.

The team is more or less exactly the same as last year’s squad with the only major departure being Arturo Vidal to Barcelona; Leon Goretzka arrives from Schalke to take his place.

It’s incredible that a player of Vidal’s caliber can leave and it doesn’t matter that much, but with Thiago, James Rodriguez, Corentin Tolisso and Sebastian Rudy remaining (not to mention Thomas Muller and Javi Martinez, who will both at least play some midfield minutes) Bayern are well and truly stacked.

There are of course some possible concerns, mainly that Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben are 35 and 34, respectively. They’ve mostly staved off Father Time by playing fewer and fewer minutes as the years go by — both because of injury and because Bayern keep destroying the league, which allows them to be heavily rotated.

In the extremely unlikely circumstance Bayern are challenged in the league, their respective ages would all of a sudden loom a lot larger.

And, of course, it’s not just their midfield. Robert Lewandowski is an elite striker, Joshua Kimmich and David Alaba are elite fullbacks, and their center-back pairing of Mats Hummels and Niklas Sule means that even if superstar Jerome Boateng leaves, the team won’t have a problem at the back. Oh, and Manuel Neuer is one of the best two or three goalkeepers in the world.

This team is a machine. Sure, it’s a big jump for a new manager, but mostly he needs to just stay out of the way.

Everything about this team is simply better than everybody else. They scored 92 goals; nobody else scored more than 66. They conceded 28; the second-best defense conceded 36.

Their xG of just over 76 was 10 ahead of everybody else’s, and their xG conceded of just under 31 was six better than any other team’s. No part of their game is a weakness. It’s Bayern’s league, and everybody else is just along for the ride.

The Race for Top Four
Beyond Bayern, there is a group of five teams competing for the coveted Champions League qualification spots.

They’re all going through some degree of upheaval. Schalke (+100 for Top Four) finished second last year. They were a revelation under new manager Domenico Tedesco. Stylistically they were brutal, but efficient.

They combined a fairly aggressive press with an extremely conservative attack. Their passes allowed per defensive action in their opponents’ half (a stat that can effectively measure pressing) was 8.99, the fifth-lowest in the Bundesliga.

But, they didn’t turn that pressure into attacking impetus of their own. Their 150 deep completions (passes completed within 20 yards of goal excluding crosses) was the fifth-lowest in the league. They were the only team in the top six not to break 200.

They strangle opponents and then play cautiously themselves, creating just enough in attack to get the job done. They’ll have to manage without Goretzka this season (along with Max Meyer, who was frozen out as his contract ran down) and hope that Suat Serdar, the 21-year-old midfielder from Mainz, can fill his shoes.

Hoffenheim (+275 for Top Four) were the surprise of the Bundesliga over the last two seasons, finishing fourth and third largely thanks to manager Nagelsmann.

He was appointed in February of 2016 at the tender young age of 28, dug the squad out of a relegation battle, and then sent them zooming to the Champions League places the next two seasons.

He’s also a lame duck. He’s already agreed to join RB Leipzig after this season ends. How that affects this team is anybody’s guess, but statistically Hoffenheim look like a team unlikely to repeat last season’s feats regardless of the state of mind of their manager.

The team scored 66 goals, 15 more than expected goals predicted. Two of the main overperformers are now gone, with Serge Gnabry’s loan spell over and Mark Uth moving to Schalke, but they also haven’t been replaced in a meaningful way. Hoffenheim are a great story but one that seems unlikely to have another happy chapter.

Last year’s fourth-place team, Borussia Dortmund (-400 for Top Four), are the perennial Bundesliga bridesmaids.

If Dortmund don’t get their act together, Bayer Leverkusen (-138 for Top Four) might be the best of the chasing pack.

They finished fifth mostly thanks to a bizarre defensive record that saw them concede 44 goals despite xG predicting only 37. The only major transfer loss they’ve suffered this summer is Bernd Leno, and his goalkeeping ability was frequently suspect anyway.

Meanwhile, they’ve added a talented teenage Brazilian winger in Paulinho and a solid right-back in Mitchell Weiser. Manager Heiko Herrlich ran a steady ship last year, and if he can just run it back again, Leverkusen should be even stronger.

Finally RB Leipzig (-138 for Top Four) are in transition. Next season Nagelsmann takes over, but until then Ralf Rangnick, the team’s sporting director, is in charge, just like he took charge during the 2015-16 season.

After bursting onto the scene two years ago and qualifying for the Champions League immediately after promotion, RB struggled to maintain their form in their second Bundesliga season.

Now, they’ll have to find a way to replace Naby Keita’s midfield production in the wake of the star leaving for Liverpool. The team is still young and talented and have managed to hang onto all their non-Keita stars such as striker Timo Werner and winger Emil Forsberg, and they should be competitive for the top four spots.

But, with manager Nagelsmann on the horizon and no strong replacement for Keita, this season is likely to be one of transition, not a marked step forward.

Bayern vs. Hoffenheim Odds
Bayern Munich moneyline: -416
Hoffenheim moneyline : +981
Draw: +553
Over/Under: 3.5 (-105/-116)
Kickoff: Friday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Bayern may have wiped the floor with new manager Niko Kovac’s former club Frankfurt in the German Super Cup, but a meeting with Hoffenheim may well be a more difficult assignment.

The Croatian was a shock appointment at the Allianz, and it’s no secret he was not the club’s first choice to replace the re-retiring Jupp Heynckes, whom they desperately wanted to stay.

One of those ahead of Kovac on the wish list will be in the opposite dugout for the Bundesliga curtain raiser on Friday, and the champions’ interest in Julian Nagelsmann was not without merit.

The Hoffenheim coach is still just 31 but led a team of modest means to third last season, and he has proven a tough opponent to the Bavarians in the past.
In Munich, an away win would be a massive shock, but Hoffenheim have opened the scoring against Bayern in all four of their competitive meetings since Nagelsmann’s appointment, and the odds on doing so again are huge.

MLS
LA Galaxy/LAFC..This one should be entertaining. I would like to play BTTS, but at -280 way too juicy for me. Instead I made two plays, all plus:
Draw +283
LAFC ML +159

Spanish LaLiga
I seldom play this, but two soccer sites I follow picked Getafe, so why not
Getafe +100

Crystal Palace are 22-games unbeaten against non top-six opposition.

Watford's home record under Gracia reads W5-D3-L1.

Palace have scored in 11/12 away games, scoring 2+ in 6 of those. 7/12 gone Over 2.5.

Los Angeles FC at Los Angeles Galaxy (10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)
LAFC odds: +166
LA Galaxy odds: +153
Draw odds: +288
Over/Under: 3.5 (o-109)

The Galaxy have really struggled to find points lately and are winless in their last four matches. After a decent start to the year, they’re now in serious danger of missing the playoffs in the Western Conference, especially since every club behind them in the standings has games in hand.

With 37 points, they’re tied for fifth-place with Portland, Seattle and Vancouver breathing down their neck.

The task at hand won’t be easy for the Galaxy, as they have to find a way to get it going tonight without the likes of Romain Alessandrini (knee), Giovani dos Santos (leg) and Michael Ciani (hamstring).

LAFC also suffered a lengthy winless streak but have pitched back-to-back clean sheets to move into third place in the West with 42 points.
A victory tonight would put them just a point behind FC Dallas for top spot in the conference, and the visitors will be licking their chops to get revenge on the Galaxy.

“Of course we think about it,” said LAFC’s Carlos Vela when asked about the previous losses to the Galaxy.

Vela, who starred for Mexico at the 2018 World Cup, must be especially frustrated with the first two results after scoring within the opening ten minutes in each game.

Both head-to-head meetings should have been victories for LAFC, but they blew second half leads of 3-0 and 2-0 to lose and draw, respectively.

If the first two matchups are any indication, we should see plenty of goals scored again and public bettors agree.

More than 80% of over/under tickets has been placed on the over 3.5, and sportsbooks have adjusted for the heavy action.

Moneyline tickets have been evenly split, but the line has shifted toward LAFC from +179 to +166. They’re the healthier club right now and come into the match with better form and recent results.

Here are the latest odds and betting percentages around the offshore market:

58% on LA Galaxy (+153)
28% on LAFC (+166)
14% on Draw (+288)
Despite just 27% of bets coming in on LAFC, their odds have come down from +180 to +166.

LAFC is the superior club by nearly every metric and I don’t see any way for the Galaxy to contain them.

While some of the line movement was due to injuries for the Galaxy, I love the road side as a contrarian value play, and anything higher than LAFC +150 is absolutely worth betting.

In game week two of the Premier League, before their own team ground out a victory over Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park, one result would have given immense satisfaction to Liverpool fans – Brighton & Hove Albion’s win over Manchester United. Coming completely out of the blue, the upset handed a clear advantage to the Reds in what is expected to be a closely fought affair at the top of the table. Now, Liverpool have a chance of hosting the Seagulls at Anfield on Saturday evening. The Reds fans would want their team to be far less generous than their archrivals.

Liverpool have started the Premier League season in a great fashion, winning two games out of two and not conceding even a single goal. More importantly the manner of both the victories – blowing away West Ham at home before fighting it out at Crystal Palace – indicate that Jurgen Klopp’s team have the hunger to challenge for the title this season. Goals for most of their front line, and clean sheets in both the previous game also indicate the form the team is in currently. Further, the fact that they are playing at home, where they have not lost the last 22 league games, also points to the massive advantage the home team enjoys.

Brighton are returning to Anfield just after two game weeks. They played the last game of the 2017-18 season at Anfield in May. They lost that game 4-0. But that was a different Brighton than the team that will visit Liverpool on Saturday. This team has beaten Manchester United at home last weekend and is coming to see if they can impose the same result on Liverpool. Chris Hughton has imbibed this team with confidence and after escaping the relegation battle completely last season, they are aiming for higher targets this season. However, the odds of the Seagulls going back with a point or three are extremely long.

INTERESTING STATS
Brighton have played Liverpool 27 times in all competitions overall, having won only four and having drawn only eight times. In 10 top flight matches (old Division One), Brighton have managed to win one and draw three. In fact, Brighton have lost last three games against the Reds by four goals or more.
Liverpool have not lost a league game at Anfield in the last 22 games. They have not even conceded a goal at Anfield since they conceded to West Ham in February. Further, Brighton have not won at Anfield since 1982.
Since 2010-11, this is the third time that Liverpool have started the campaign with two wins. They are anywhere between 2 points (last season) and 5 points (2010-11, 2012-13) better off than their previous efforts during this decade.
Chris Hughton has never won against Liverpool or against Klopp. Brighton have also failed to win their last 14 away league matches. None of these stats inspire confidence for the Seagulls.
KEY MEN
ROBERTO FIRMINO
Roberto Firmino – the talismanic false nine for Liverpool, has been quiet over the first two games of the campaign. He has a lone assist for his 161 minutes on field so far. However, this quiet from the Brazilian is not likely to last long. Over the last 3 seasons, he has scored 36 league goals for the Reds along with a total of 21 assists. His xG per 90 ranges around 0.30 – 0.35, while his xA per 90 ranges between 0.20 – 0.25, which means that in the past Firmino was expected to score or assist a goal once every two games. Jurgen Klopp will be hoping that the Brazilian can find his scoring shoes on Saturday.

PASCAL GROSS
Groß enjoyed a wonderful season in 2017-18, scoring 7 goals and assisting 8, with an xG per 90 of only 0.10 and a xA per 90 of 0.26. In the first two games of this season, his xG per 90 has shot up to 0.45. He scored the penalty against Manchester United last weekend, and sealed their fate. For Chris Hughton’s side to trouble Liverpool, it is imperative that Groß has a good game on Saturday.

TEAM NEWS
For Liverpool, Dejan Lovren’s absence is the only immediate injury concern. Alexander Oxlade-Chamberlain’s injury will keep him away for the entirety of the season. With Klavan also gone, Klopp has little incentive to make any changes in defence. In other areas, Fabinho, Sturridge, Shaquiri and even Jordan Henderson will be hoping for some game time against Brighton but are unlikely to start.

Brighton will be without Lewis Dunk, who had to be replaced midway through the first half last weekend and who was more than adequately replaced by the summer signing Leon Balogun. Balogun should start on Saturday, but Florin Andone and José Izquierdo will continue to sit out due to their injuries.

VERDICT
While both Brighton and perhaps Manchester United fans will be hoping for another upset on Saturday, it is highly unlikely that Liverpool, in this form, will lose or even draw against a side that has a very poor recent record on the road. It should be a fairly easy win for the Reds.

Liverpool 3 – 0 Brighton

Arsenal vs West Ham | Saturday 25th August, 15:00
Pointless Arsenal take on pointless West Ham at The Emirates on Saturday afternoon in an encounter that I believe will be tighter than the bookies anticipate.

The tactics of new Gunners boss Unai Emery have come under fire at the start of the season but while zero points from two games is clearly a concerning statistic, I don’t think realistic Arsenal supporters expected much from the game with Manchester City and they were a tad unfortunate to lose to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.

With all due respect to their opponents this weekend, West Ham are an easier proposition and I believe their start should be far more concerning to their supporters than Arsenal’s. Jack Wilshere and Mark Noble look too pedestrian and ill-disciplined in the centre of midfield and there is the familiar concern of support to Marko Arnautovic.

All things considered, I really struggle to see West Ham getting their first point of the season in this match. For all Arsenal’s problems in the last few seasons, one area they haven’t struggled is at home to sides beneath them in the league table.

Since the start of the 2014-2015 season, they’ve won 47/56 (84%) of home games against sides who have finished 7-20th. Moreover, they have dominated this particular encounter, winning eight of their last ten games when hosting the Hammers.

There are two bets that really take my fancy here. Firstly, Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals to be scored. That is available at 9/10 with BetVictor. It has been a winner in six of their last ten home games against The Hammers and 36 of their last 56 (64%) home fixtures against sides outside of the top half dozen.

If you want a more aggressive punt, I like the look of Arsenal and under 3.5 goals at 6/4 with the same firm. That would have been a winner in 54% of games against said teams in the last four seasons. I would recommend putting 60% of your stake on the second bet, so you are still in profit if Arsenal win 4-0 or 3-1.

There are concerns about Arsenal’s backline, but I think that has been the case throughout the last few seasons so while I wouldn’t rule out a West Ham goal, we will still break-even if they win 2-1 or 3-1.

Southampton vs Leicester | Saturday 25th August, 15:00
Last season, 63% (23/38) of Leicester games and 55% (21/38) of Southampton games saw both sides find the net. I am therefore surprised that Paddy Power are offering Evens on said bet this weekend.

Jamie Vardy is missing for Leicester but in Demarai Gray, Kelechi Iheanacho and James Maddison, they still have the potential to cause opponents plenty of problems and they certainly have issues at the back.

Only Wolves can explain how they failed to find the net last weekend and I expect Southampton to trouble them tomorrow. Danny Ings and Charlie Austin struck up a decent partnership at Burnley and I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them returned double figure goals returns this season.

All things considered, I would take this bet if it was 5/6 so Evens is far too big. I originally looked at Leicester in the DNB market but I think this is better value.

Wolves v Man City | Saturday 25th August 2018, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Champions Manchester City have continued where they left-off, beginning the season in relentless fashion.

Such is the Citizens’ depth, none of Riyad Mahrez, Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling or the injured Kevin De Bruyne started Sunday’s 6-1 victory over Huddersfield.

On the opening day of the season, Pep Guardiola’s side were without key men De Bruyne and David Silva, and yet still romped to a 2-0 win at the Emirates.

City travel to newly-promoted Wolves who have collected just the single-point from games against Everton and Leicester.

City strong on the road
As you’d imagine, City’s away record over the last year or so is formidable. In their last 28 Premier League trips, they’ve produced a W22-D4-L2 away record – the losses came at Stamford Bridge and Anfield.

15 of those 22 (68%) wins came to nil, so perhaps the 23/20 about the Citizens doing so again at Molineux is of appeal, but instinct tells me to steer clear of that.

Wolves no rollovers
Wolves are capable, and whilst I won’t be backing them, they have enough within their ranks to make me wary of taking Man City at such short-prices.

Since Guardiola took charge, City have won nine of 39 away matches by more than two goals. Victories by massive margins on the road aren’t as common as you’d imagine, and so at the prices City can’t be backed on the handicaps with any conviction either.

Especially not whilst De Bruyne is absent. City average less goals, points per game, and have a lower win percentage when the Belgium is absent.

City to collect corners
If Wolves can frustrate City for long periods, then we can expect Guardiola’s team to accumulate corners.

That’s something they do anyway – City averaged 7.7 corners per Premier League away match last season. City have achieved ten corners in each of their two games so far this season.

Since the start of last season, City have achieved eight or more corners in 11/19 away matches (58%).

Wolves will likely stick with their back-three system and will be organised without the ball – Guardiola’s side will have a lot of possession around the edge of the box.

Nuno went with his trusted formation when drawing 0-0 at the Etihad in the EFL cup last season. On that occasion, Wolves had just 27% possession while City accumulated ten corners.

Unibet are offering 9/10 about over 7.5 Man City corners, which implies just a 53% chance. Given the frequency with which it’s landed since the start of last season, and their corner record so far this campaign, I make that value.

as of 3:40

Most Lopsided Betting %’s
85% on Arsenal (-270) vs. West Ham United
83% on Chelsea (-145) at Newcastle
81% on Fulham (-105) vs. Burnley

Arsenal welcome West Ham United to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday, with both teams desperate to get their first Premier League win of the season in the books. The hosts have had a difficult start under Unai Emery as they have had to face both Manchester City and Chelsea. Although there were positive signs, the Gunners don’t have a single point to their name. It has been a similar story for the visitors, who are another team in a period of transition under Manuel Pellegrini. Given the lack of confidence within both teams, this weekend should be an interesting contest.

There has already been some unrest on social media, but Arsenal supporters need to be patient after the departure of Arsene Wenger. Although the team had been in decline under the Frenchman, it remains a huge culture shift at the club and the new manager needs time to implement his ideas. Emery is a proven winner with both Sevilla and PSG. There are doubts regarding his ability to win the biggest prizes in Europe, but he should have the capabilities of moving the Gunners forward again. That said, he needs a positive result this weekend to prevent the pressure building at this early stage.

During the summer, a lot was written about West Ham’s recruitment. They certainly caught the eye with ambitious signings such as Felipe Anderson and Jack Wilshere among others. However, those tipping the club for a top-six push already look overly ambitious. Their performance against Liverpool was disappointing, but it could be excused due to the quality of the opposition. Last weekend, the home defeat to Bournemouth was extremely difficult to accept and it was a reminder that there is plenty of work for Pellegrini to do on the training ground. They should have the talent levels to fare a lot better under the Chilean, but it won’t be a quick fix.

INTERESTING STATS
Henrikh Mkhitaryan has been involved in eight goals in his 13 Premier League matches for Arsenal. This is one more than his last 25 matches for Manchester United. He appears to be slowly finding his best form at the Emirates Stadium.
Marko Arnautovic is becoming a talismanic figure for West Ham. He has been involved in eight of their last 12 Premier League goals.
KEY MEN
Aubameyang

The Gabon international has been tipped for a big season for Arsenal, but he has yet to get off the mark in the Premier League. The start to the season has been difficult for the Gunners and the coming weeks will provide an excellent opportunity for the striker to find his form. In the two matches so far, his movement has caused problems, but his finishing has been poor. He looks to be lacking confidence in the final third. Emery and the supporters will be hoping that it returns against West Ham. There won’t be a better fixture for the former Borussia Dortmund player to find the back of the net, as West Ham are poor defensively and struggle against dynamic players. That was evident against Liverpool during the opening weekend. Last season, he scored ten goals with one coming every 105.8 minutes in the Premier League. His team-mates will be hoping for a similar strike-rate over the 2018/19 season.

Anderson

The signing of Felipe Anderson from Lazio was one of the headline transfers of the summer transfer window. It was a record signing for West Ham and the Brazilian will be expected to contribute regularly in the final third. He has started both matches to date, but he hasn’t stood out in the Hammers’ line-up. It can take foreign players time to adapt to the Premier League and he should be afforded that. This weekend provides a stage for the record signing as he will be coming up against one of the top-six teams away from home. Arsenal have had defensive problems during the first two weeks, conceding five times and the visitors should take encouragement from that. In Anderson, they have an attacker that can run with the ball and commit the opposition defenders. He will be a very useful weapon against a Gunners’ team lacking in confidence.

TEAM NEWS
Sead Kolasinac won’t be available until October at the earliest. Ainsley Maitland-Niles and Laurent Koscielny both remain on the sidelines. Lucas Torreira could be in line for his first Premier League start in place of Granit Xhaka. Meanwhile, Alexandre Lacazette is another player pushing for a starting berth.

Mark Noble is a doubt as he suffers from a knock. Manuel Lanzini, Winston Reid and Andy Carroll remain long-term injury concerns. Jack Wilshere is expected to start against his former club.

VERDICT
This could be a nervy contest, with both teams desperate to pick up their first win of the season. The home advantage should be enough to give Arsenal the victory, but it could very easily go the other way if West Ham perform to their potential. It should be a good watch for the neutrals as neither side are good defensively and there will be a lot of attacking talent in both teams.

Arsenal 3-1 West Ham

Entering Week 3 of the Premier League season, Manchester City and Liverpool have shown that they’re the cream of the crop.

The defending champions are out to -175 to lift the trophy once again, while Jurgen Klopp’s men are next at +305. No other team has odds better than +1200 to win the title.

Chelsea and Tottenham are off to solid starts, both taking the maximum of six points, while Arsenal (0 points) and Manchester United (3 points) have struggled. The Gunners at least have a favorable matchup vs. West Ham this weekend while the Red Devils have to face Spurs.

Draws have struggled out of the gate this season, cashing in just 3 of 20 matches thus far. Home teams have been slightly profitable, led by Brighton’s upset over Manchester United, while road teams are in the red.

Cardiff City at Huddersfield (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Cardiff City Odds: +257
Huddersfield Odds: +141
Draw Odds: +204
Over/Under: 2 (u-113)
It’s been a predictable struggle for the two most-poised clubs for relegation, but at least one of them will get points on Saturday. Cardiff City are currently priced at -200 to be demoted while Huddersfield are right behind them at -150 (odds via 5Dimes).

I’m not forecasting either team to win, but public bettors are siding with Huddersfield (60% of tickets) to take all the points.
As if the over/under wasn’t low enough at 2 goals, juice keeps shifting toward the under. Sportsbooks and bettors alike just don’t see anything beyond a 0-0, 1-0, or 1-1 result. Once again, this match perfectly fits the mold of taking draws with low totals and tight moneylines.

Neither club can afford an outright loss in this match and I’m following the money on both teams to share the points.

Leicester City at Southampton (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Leicester City Odds: +222
Southampton Odds: +142
Draw Odds: +236
Over/Under: 2 (o-140)
Leicester City have looked the better of these sides through the opening two weeks, but striker Jamie Vardy will miss out on Saturday’s match due to a straight red card received against Wolves. His suspension caused instant reaction around the betting market.

Very early wagers came in on Leicester City, but odds shot up from +180 to +220 immediately following the red card to Vardy.

Perhaps it was a bit of an overreaction, but it shows how much a top goalscorer can influence the line, especially for a challenging road match. Their game against Wolves hadn’t even gone final before the moneyline for this weekend moved 40 cents.

Both Southampton and Leicester City have received roughly 40% of public bets while the draw’s been largely ignored. Odds have shifted in both teams’ favor since opening, but are essentially back to the original prices.

With tight three-way moneylines, a low total of 2 goals and no Vardy, I’ll gladly take the draw at +236 odds, as I think that’s the most likely result.

The following EFL sides have seen BTTS in ALL of their league games this season:

Aston Villa
Bristol Rovers
Walsall
Swindon

Since the start of last season Man City's away record reads W17-D2-L1.

Scored 3+ = 42%
Clean Sheet = 58%

Juventus v Lazio | Saturday 25th August 2018, 17:00 | Eleven Sports
Last week I was keen on goals when Juventus were involved, and nothing has changed.

Lazio should approach this in conservative fashion, trying to punish Juve on the counter, but the Bianconeri have the right weapons to open up a very dodgy defence (ranked 10th in Serie A last season). Juventus will use a similar system as was used against Chievo last week.

However, Cristiano could be moved out wide, with Mario Mandzukic operating centrally. Anyway, I rate the Portuguese international to score here, and over 2.5 goals (13/20 Marathon) looks a banker.

Napoli v Milan | Saturday 25th August, 19:30 | Eleven Sports
This is arguably the most interesting match in Italy this week.

The Partenopei played well against Lazio, creating chances for fun, just like last season. They’re still not convincing at the back though, and AC Milan can take advantage of that.

The Rossoneri added Gonzalo Higuain this summer, and he’s capable of troubling any defence.

Both teams to score is a runner here, and offers value at 10/11 (Bet365).