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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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League leaders Manchester City are back to their winning ways after losing to Liverpool, and are 12 points clear of Manchester United at the top of the table. This week they’ve got an easy matchup on paper against West Brom and are -630 on the moneyline to win– should be an easy victory for the Citizens, right?
Well, they may get the victory but I would not feel comfortable at all laying -630 odds either straight-up or in a parlay. West Brom will really pack it in defensively (something that most clubs do against Man City) and they’ve only lost 3-2 and 2-1 in their most recent head-to-head matchups. I also like what I’ve seen from West Brom over the last month and think they can keep this match within a couple of goals. At the time of publication, West Brom were available at +2.5 goals (-130) and hardly getting any spread support by the public, but that’s the side I’m on.
Another match I’ve been steered toward is West Ham vs. Crystal Palace, primarily due to the huge line swing, injuries, and public betting. It’s been more than a month since West Ham have played a poor match in the EPL, yet they’ve increased significantly from +139 to +198 since opening at Pinnacle. They recently lost Diafra Sakho to transfer and have tons of injury doubts including Michail Antonio, Andy Carroll, Marko Arnautovic, Andre Ayew, and Mark Noble to name a few. On the other side of things, Crystal Palace are coming off an embarrassing 4-1 performance at Arsenal in which they were down 4-0 within the first 25 minutes. Both teams appear to be trending in the wrong direction but more than 70% of public bets across three different offshore sportsbooks have taken West Ham to win. It’s even incredible to see that more bettors are taking the draw than Crystal Palace to win– so why has the line gone the other way toward Crystal Palace? Clearly it was due to the number of injuries for West Ham along with sharp money pouncing on Crystal Palace at +243 which brought the odds all the way down to +161. A line move that large is pretty rare, and with the public all over West Ham you can wait to see if odds tick back up, but I’m on Crystal Palace +170 for this matchup.
Before getting to the last value play, let’s delve into the marquee matchup of the week: Tottenham vs. Manchester United. As of Monday afternoon, Manchester United (+240) were getting the majority of public support with nearly 50% of moneyline tickets, while less than 25% of bets have come in on Tottenham and 25% on the Draw. So far all the line movement has been toward Manchester United so they’re a bit of a trendy underdog, but I’m not convinced on taking Tottenham at this point. I also think Manchester United have some momentum and confidence with newly acquired Alexis Sanchez in the squad, so I’m laying off this game completely.
As for the final play of the week, I’m looking at the Newcastle/Burnley Draw at +220 odds for value. This match is set up perfectly in the sweet spot for draw bettors:
1) Close moneylines for Home/Away/Draw (+120/+305/+220)
2) Low total (2 goals)
3) Juice on the Under (-117)
4) Public heavy on one side (Newcastle 70%)
Historically if you look at Premier League draws with close moneylines (+190 to +220) and low totals (2), it’s been incredibly successful.
This system has been profitable year-to-year and has done great so far this season. I also love the fact that the public is loading up on Newcastle at home, who desperately need points to stay out of the relegation zone. I believe many bettors will get sucked into taking Newcastle, but the value here is on the draw at +220 odds.
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01-30-18 08:16 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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While they’re still one of the favourites to be relegated, Swansea City have seen their results improve since the hiring of new manager Carlos Carvahal. Since his hiring, the Swans have lost only once in all competitions and have registered wins against Watford and Liverpool. They will be at a disadvantage against Arsenal as they had to play on Saturday, while the Gunners got the weekend off after being knocked out of the FA Cup in the third round. That said, they’ll face an Arsenal team that has struggled away from home all season and they’ll look at this as an opportunity to get some unexpected points.
Arsenal have had an extremely eventful January that may lead them to believe they have a chance to sneak into the top four by the end of the season, but they’ll have to improve their away form to do so. They have won three of their 12 away matches this season, including losses to Bournemouth, Stoke City, and Watford. If Arsenal are going to sneak into the top four above two of Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United, they have to win these kind of games.
Swansea are likely to be without Renato Sanches against Arsenal as the Portuguese’s fitness is a major doubt, according to Physioroom.com. They may also be without Roque Mesa after he missed out on the squad against Notts County because of talks over his future at the club.
Olivier Giroud could miss out due to a hamstring injury, while Danny Welbeck and Santi Cazorla are expected to miss out, according to Physioroom.com. At the time of writing, Arsene Wenger has yet to confirm whether new signing Henrik Mkhitaryan will make his debut against Swansea.
PREDICTION
Arsenal have been truly atrocious away from home this season, so Swansea have a chance to get something here. That said, Arsenal should still be able to squeeze out a victory.
PREDICTION: 2-1 ARSENAL
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01-30-18 08:20 AM |
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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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I am going to bite into Premier League
2* West Ham vs Crystal Palace Draw +225
GLTA
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01-30-18 08:20 PM |
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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Houston , GL with those. Im going back to the Draw well tomorrow
EPL Wednesday
2* Everton vs Leicester Draw +200
Everton has scored 1 goal in last 3 games and Leicester a whopping 2 in last 3 games.
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01-31-18 01:30 AM |
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