let's get it going with some matches today !
GL

Week 12 of the Premier League was dominated by the favorites, going 8-2 on the moneyline for +4.65 units. I took two draws as value plays and was fortunate to hit on one of them– Brighton and Stoke played to a surprisingly entertaining 2-2 draw on Monday afternoon. However, the real excitement for me last weekend was seeing Arsenal beat Tottenham 2-0 at home to move within 1 point of Spurs in the table. Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, title odds and Week 13 preview with value plays.

Week 12 Results:
Home 6 of 10 (+1.71 units)
Away 2 of 10 (-7.07 units)
Draw 2 of 10 (-3.57 units)

After a really solid Week 11 for road teams, they struggled in Week 12, going just 2-8 straight up for -7.07 units.

Season Results:
Home 56 of 120 (+4.69 units)
Away 37 of 120 (-5.46 units)
Draw 27 of 120 (-11.40 units)

The bookmakers have been pretty good in setting their lines this season.

Title Odds :
Man City -800 (34 points)
Man Utd +1400 (26 points)
Chelsea +1800 (25 points)
Tottenham +2000 (23 points)
Liverpool +5000 (22 points)
Arsenal +6000 (22 points)
Burnley +100000 (22 points)
Watford +75000 (18 points)

The opening match of the week is Friday afternoon with two underperforming teams squaring off as West Ham host Leicester City. Since opening, we’ve seen a lot of line movement toward Leicester City from +212 to +173 behind nearly 70% of tickets. Hardly anyone wants to bet on the draw, and even fewer want to bet on West Ham to win straight up. They are in bad shape right now and just sacked their manager Slaven Bilic, replacing him with David Moyes. I’m not a huge Moyes fan and I question what’s going on around the management of the club right now, so I can’t go full contrarian and pick them to win straight up. However, I do think the players will put in a good effort though and will surprise some people, so I like the draw at +239 odds. Also, tickets are on the over 2.5 but money is on the under 2.5, so the O/U movement could be trending toward a 1-1 finish.

The marquee match of the week is Saturday afternoon with Liverpool hosting Chelsea. A home win by Liverpool would see them level on points at 25 with Chelsea, and we’ve seen some line movement on the Reds to win at home. Chelsea are a pretty popular ticket with nearly 50% of bets, and at a price of +265 it’s certainly understandable. It seems like Liverpool are the play here but I can’t get myself to bet them at nearly even money, so I’m laying off this one completely.

There are a few games with big favorites like Man United (-517), Man City (-492) and Tottenham (-370), and I tend to stay away from betting those. In games with tighter lines, there are two contrarian “favorites” who I like to win at home: Newcastle +120 vs. Watford, and Crystal Palace +105 vs. Stoke City. Neither is getting even 20% of the tickets to win, and both Watford and Stoke City are very trendy underdogs on the road. Both look enticing on paper, but I like Crystal Palace to get a much-needed home win at +105, and Newcastle to get back on track after three straight defeats at +120.

In the other 3 matches, I’m expecting Arsenal (-171) to let me down at Burnley but hoping for the best. Swansea host Bournemouth in a game both teams can win so it may actually be entertaining, but I don’t see the betting value anywhere. Finally, Southampton (-113) host Everton in a match that I have no clue what will happen. Both teams are wildly inconsistent and while Everton and the Draw both look tempting, there’s no reason to bet either.

Most Lopsided Around Market:
70% on Leicester +174
45% on Chelsea +265

Biggest Market Line Moves:
Leicester +212 to +174
Liverpool +129 to +112

BetShare
WHU/LEI

Spread
WHU (0) 44%
LEI (0) 56%

ML
West Ham 28%
Leicester 32%
Draw 40%

Tot (2.5)
Ov 79%
Un 21%

Manchester United will welcome newly promoted Brighton to Old Trafford as the Red Devils look to bounce back from a shock defeat in midweek.

Manchester United suffered a blip again, this time in Europe – where a point would have sealed progression in Basel as group winners in the Champions League. Although there is very little danger of United losing out on making it to the last 16, Mourinho’s side could do with a win in the final group encounter to secure on board a respectable helping of points, worthy of their swashbuckling form in the early months.

On Saturday however, the Red Devils will face a Brighton side that has made an impressive start to the new season under Chris Hughton, with the sole objective to get all 3 points and close the gap, albeit temporarily (Man City play on Sunday).

Brighton and Hove Albion will make the long trip up North – without a defeat in the last five league games with their most recent loss coming against Arsenal in early October. Hughton has stuck to the basics at Brighton and it has worked wonders for the Seagulls. With 4 wins and 4 draws in 12 games, the promoted side sit 9th on the table above the likes of Everton and Southampton and it is a credit to the manager and his previous experience that the visitors have acclimatised to the nature of the top flight so quickly.


Arguably, their best result in 2017/18 so far came against Newcastle United in the form of an impressive 1-0 win at home but Manchester United at Old Trafford are a different kettle of fish, particularly under Jose Mourinho where they have yet to face a defeat in 38 games in all competitions at home, meaning it will take a very special display from the Seasiders to come away with all 3 points on Saturday.

TEAM NEWS

Phil Jones will miss out nursing a thigh injury, but Jose Mourinho is hopeful that Eric Bailly can return from injury to feature for Manchester United.

Steve Sidwell is the only injured player for the away side but Brighton are not expected to make any changes to their starting XI.

Manchester United possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Valencia, Smalling, Rojo, Young; Matic, Pogba; Martial, Mata, Rashford; Lukaku

Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Bruno, Duffy, Dunk, Bong; Knockaert, Stephens, Propper, Izquierdo; Gross; Murray

INTERESTING NUMBERS

Manchester United’s only home defeat against a team in their debut Premier League season came in 1996/97, losing 2-3 against Derby County.
Man Utd have kept a clean sheet in half (25) of their 50 PL matches since the start of last season, more than any other side.
This could be Romelu Lukaku’s first PL appearance against Brighton & Hove Albion and an opportunity for him to score against a 25th different team in the competition.
Pascal Gross has been directly involved in 62% of Brighton’s 13 goals this season (three goals, five assists), the second-highest ratio in the competition after Tammy Abraham at Swansea City (71%).

PREDICTION

A routine win for Manchester United.

MANCHESTER UNITED 2-0 BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION

Generally speaking, any league match amongst the big-six teams is bound to be an interesting affair. However, Liverpool versus Chelsea games have proven to be season-defining games in the recent past. The Blues’ defeat at Stamford Bridge last season was the first of the two defeats that prompted Antonio Conte to switch to a back-three. Chelsea went on a 13-match winning streak and became the clear favorites to win the title. In April 2014, Liverpool were the clear favorites to win the Premier League but a famous loss to Mourinho’s Chelsea at Anfield meant that the title “slipped” away from their hands. On Saturday evening, Chelsea visit Liverpool for what promises to be a very interesting match.

Liverpool are getting ready to host Chelsea after a debacle of sorts in Seville. After leading 0-3 at half-time, the Reds conceded three goals in the second half, the last one in injury time. While the end result was disappointing, the Reds can take heart from the fact that they scored three in a country where they had lost 1-0 in their previous three visits. They also scored three in a single game against Sevilla, who have been incredibly miserly at home this season. However, in the Premier League, Liverpool have had a good run after that miserable defeat against Tottenham. Three games, all three won by a margin of three goals, and the two at home – versus Huddersfield and Southampton have been won 3-0. While a few performances in Seville were disturbing, Liverpool will be confident of a better performance at home, especially against a top-four rival.

For a brief period in October, it did seem that Chelsea’s internal politics will begin clouding their results on the field. A loss to Crystal Palace was also followed by a draw and a loss to Roma in the Champions League. But since then, the Blues have been cruising. They have won last four league encounters at a canter and have just returned after dishing out a 0-4 thrashing to Qarabag in Azerbaijan. They have won their last two matches by four goals to none margins and if they were playing a non-top-six team in the league, they would definitely be the favorites. However, playing Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool two days after a long mid-week flight is a challenge. It is a challenge that Conte’s side did not have to deal with last season and one that seems to have troubled the Blues this season. But, given his side’s overall form, Conte will be hopeful that they will be able to hold their own at Anfield.

INTERESTING STATS

In 50 Premier League matches, Liverpool have won 19, Chelsea have won 19 and 12 have been drawn. In the last five encounters between the two teams, Liverpool have won 2 and won 3.
Liverpool have converted Anfield into a fortress of sorts, having conceded only one goal in last eight home games.
Chelsea have the second-longest winning streak in Premier League this season. They have won their last four games on the trot, while Liverpool have won their last three Premier League games.
This game will see the team with lowest passing accuracy among the top-six – Liverpool with 82.4%, go toe-to-toe with the team with the lowest possession among the top-six teams – Chelsea with 52.7%.

THE VERDICT

For Liverpool, Saturday’s match is about winning against a top-four rival and strengthening their top-four credentials. For Chelsea, it is about keeping pace with the Manchester sides ahead of them. These objectives ensure that both the sides will treat Saturday’s game as a must-win game. Both the sides have the firepower to score a few goals and both sides are fatigued in their own way. These balancing forces on both sides will possibly lead to one more score draw, which would be a third consecutive score draw between these sides at Anfield.

Liverpool 2 – 2 Chelsea

Bayer Leverkusen o3 (+110)

Stoke city o2.5 (+100)

Chelsea +270 and o3 (+105)

GL everyone

Tottenham will be looking to bounce back from last weekend’s disappointment in the North London derby with a win against managerless West Brom on Saturday. They are heading back to Wembley after back-to-back away matches and three points are needed to strengthen their position in the top four. At the time of writing, they are already 11 points behind leaders Manchester City and their title hopes are fading. Mauricio Pochettino will see a top-four finish and a trophy as a success this season and their performances in the Champions League will give the supporters hope that they can have a great campaign.

During the week, they came from behind to beat Borussia Dortmund and that has ensured them top place in their Champions League group that also included Real Madrid. They have developed a lot over the 12 months and are now a team to be reckoned with in Europe. A cost of their continental success has been a drop-off in the league, but they are still in line for a top-four finish. The upcoming fixtures look kind and they will be keen to secure themselves in those places. A win this weekend is required to get them back on track.

It was a surprise when West Brom sacked Tony Pulis earlier this week, but those that have been following the team closely will be less than shocked. The football has not been good since the Welshman arrived, but the results have dropped off since the beginning of the year. They have yet to announce a new manager and that makes them real outsiders for the match against Tottenham. Gary Megson will take temporary charge. He has managerial experience, but he hasn’t managed in the top-flight for a long time. He is unlikely to be the long-term answer and an appointment is expected in the coming weeks.

INTERESTING STATS

Tottenham have the joint-third best defence in the Premier League, having conceded only nine times in 12 matches.
West Brom haven’t won in the Premier League since August and they will be lacking in confidence when they step out at Wembley on Saturday.

VERDICT

This is likely to be a straight forward home victory. West Brom fans will be positive about the future now that Tony Pulis has gone, but it will take some time to move on from his tenure. A new manager hasn’t been appointed and it will be the Welshman’s coaching staff that will be taking charge of the weekend’s match. Tottenham may have lost the North London derby, but they remain one of the best teams in the country. Their result against Dortmund in the week has given them confidence once again and they should win on Saturday.

TOTTENHAM 3-0 WEST BROM

We’re past a quarter into this Premier League season and pre-season title favourites, Manchester City have shortened from an implied probability of around 35% to a prohibitively short near 85%. How can analysis of the start of the season aid in the Premier League betting markets in order to find value in Premier League betting odds? Read on to find out.

Is Manchester City's start deserved?

Manchester City were arguably the best team in the previous season when they posted more impressive expected goals numbers than actual title winners, Chelsea and they’ve kicked on in 2017/18.

However, they are over-performing by scoring more and conceding fewer goals than their underlying expected goals figures suggest, so they may cool before May.

But their underlying stats are still comfortably the best in the league and simulated runs of the remainder of the season lead to another City title around 90% of the time, suggesting they are even better than the layer’s assessment.
Their defensive process is allowing similar rates of expected goals per game to the previous campaign, but individual errors leading to actual goals are much less apparent than was the case in 2016/17.

Manchester City are currently priced at 1.181* to win the Premier League and could be the smart bet in the Premier League odds based on their current invincibility.

Premier League betting: The best of the rest

Defending champions Chelsea were consistently playing with a lead in 2016/17; they scored first in 30 out of the 38 league games, but that’s less the case this season, albeit from a smaller sample.

How important is the first goal in soccer?
They have opened the scoring seven out of 11 times so far, but more worryingly their attacking process has shed nearly 0.5 xG per 90 more than last campaign.

Their 2017/18 performances are the weakest of the current ‘big six’ and even if they partly rediscover some of their 2016/17 form, fourth would seem to be their most likely final position.

Manchester United and Tottenham appear to be the best of the rest, based on a weighted assessment of expected goals from this season and the last.

Spurs’ actual performances tally is closest to their expected goals process (20 actual goals in comparison to 18.69 xG), but United’s actual goals conceded record (five) looks vulnerable to regression towards the mean and perhaps a less sustainable level of current performance.

Mourinho’s defence has allowed 0.4 goals per game, but they have presented their opponents with opportunities worth 1.1 xG per game.

Of the remaining challengers, Arsenal have improved slightly both in attack and defence, but Liverpool’s perennial problems at the back remain.

They are currently giving up over 1.3 expected goals per game while conceding even more in actual goals; more than enough to preclude a legitimate title challenge.

The battle against the drop

Whilst City have created a gap between them and the chasing pack, at the bottom of the Premier League table things are not so easy to predict.

Crystal Palace finally broke their duck, both in terms of points and goals scored against Chelsea.

Their underlying advanced stats suggested they were a mid to lower half table team, who had been unfortunate to spurn a host of relatively inviting chances.

They more than held their own in expected goals in many of their games, losing five games by a score of 1-0, whilst also losing their two most creative attackers, Benteke and Zaha to injury.

A solid mid-table process from 2016/17 combined with similar levels of performance this term mark them as a side whose potential future results may belie their lowly position, particularly during an easier run of fixtures following their visit to Spurs at Wembley.

The two complete newcomers to Premier League football, Brighton and Huddersfield, are both ahead of the one point per game rate that is the usual cut off point for relegation back to the Championship.

However, both teams have faced a relatively benign opening campaign and their near-identical expected goal differences of around minus 0.5 per game could be inflated by a couple of tenths with a more complete fixture list.

Brighton have also over-performed defensively against their expected totals and nearly half of their attacking expected goals have been generated outside of open play; particularly via the boot of dead ball specialist Pascal Gross.

These tactical methods often tread a fine line between survival and a quick return to the Championship and both teams are likely to feature in the relegation race despite their solid beginnings.

following the $'s here....

SOC [200102] CRYSTAL PALACE +104

YTD
24-16-2 +13.60

one to keep an eye on as wagers are on Chelsea, yet the $'s are at 88/12 on Liverpool at this moment
GL

Bournemouth +155

Did you guys see that crazy comeback by Schalke??? Wow, unreal goals too.

SOC [200102] CRYSTAL PALACE +104.........W

YTD
25-16-2 +14.64

Chelsea +.25 -101

Glta