Is someone anyone out that matters statfox community? If so please publish..huge public move on harbaugh? From 7.5 to 10 is huge.. Reminds me of the la tech/wku line move and wku still wins SU..thoughts?

Deveon Smith and Channing Stribling are back for the good guys. Two key players that were out last week against Mary. Ruddock is starting to settle into Jimmy's offense.

IMO, many bettors saw the big line (when at 8) and pounded Northwestern. Once it got down to 7.5, a few sharps came over the top with big plays on the good guys.

I'm clearly biased here, but I wouldn't surprised to see good guys win their 5th in a row by double digits tomorrow.

Good luck....and Go Blue!

No major injuries that I saw. Spread seems high to me also. I'm not sure Michigan can score 10 points on this defense. Harbaugh has a pretty good one though too. With an extremely low point total expected, I might grab some dog food on this one myself. GL

In this weekend’s most-bet college football game, #18 Michigan (4-1) will host #13 Northwestern (5-0). Although the Wildcats are ranked higher in the latest AP Top 25, Michigan opened as a 9.5-point home favorite at the market-setting CRIS sportsbook.

Bettors tend to overvalue rankings, so it’s not surprising to see that 74% of spread bettors are taking Northwestern and the points. In fact, this one-sided public betting had moved Northwestern from +9.5 to +7 across the sports betting marketplace.

The most interesting aspect of this line movement is that we had triggered zero bet signals on this game prior to Friday night, which would seem to indicate that public perception is solely responsible for the 2.5-point line move. After the move to -7, Michigan appeared to be offering excellent contrarian value to bettors, and historically we have seen this value magnified when fading the trendy underdog. When underdogs are receiving at least 70% of spreads, the favorite has hit at 56.4% with +7.77 units won.

Ryan Oakes at William Hill informed us that they had taken similar one-sided action on Northwestern. As of Friday at 1 pm ET, 82% of total tickets and 88% of total dollars wagered were taking the Wildcats. However, on Friday night there was a huge move on Michigan, moving them from -7 to -10 across the betting market. With such a large move in a short amount of time, there’s no doubt that sharp money has started pounding the Wolverines.

Michigan has been one of the most popular teams for bettors alongside traditional powerhouses like Notre Dame, Ohio State, Alabama and Oklahoma. However, Michigan could make history this week as they have never received less than 26% of spread bets as a favorite.

Bettors may also want to know that when two ranked teams face each other during the regular season, the favorite has gone 245-206 ATS (54.3%). When that team is also receiving less than 50% of spread bets, the system improves to 91-71 ATS (56.2%).

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting many points in this matchup, and with good reason. This game features the two best scoring defenses in the nation, with Michigan allowing 7.6 points/game and Northwestern allowing just 7.0 points/game. With two stout defenses, CRIS opened the total at 36 and, despite very even public betting, that number has dipped to 34 which would be the lowest closing total in our database.

HAIL!!!! :-)

Good call jtsachs I was totally off on this game myself your boys look like they are legit contenders for a big ten title already in year 1 of the Harbaugh regime.