NFL Trends to Watch - October
By Marc Lawrence

The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.

Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

AWAY TEAMS

Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

FAVORITES

Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

DOGS

Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.

Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.

Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?

Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.

San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.

The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

DIVISION

Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.

Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?

With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.

Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

Inside the Stats - Week 6
By Marc Lawrence

GOING INSIDE THE STATS

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles.

These are the teams playing this week who lost bogus ‘inside-out’ ITS (In The Stats) in their last game, meaning they lost the game lost the game but out-yarded their opponent by 100 or more yards:

NFL: St. Louis Rams (2nd straight game)

HOT TRENDS

From my weekly NFL column in the USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY, here are some of the hottest trends surrounding this week’s card from my all-knowing database:

The Minnesota Vikings are 11-1 ATS at home off a loss of 20 or more points, including 5-0 ATS in division games.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8-0 SU and ATS away in games after facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 8-0 SU and ATS in his last eight division games after winning SU as an underdog the previous game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith is 0-7 ATS in his NFL career as a non-division dog in games in which his team owns a losing record.

Defending Super Bowl losers (read: Denver Broncos) are 1-9 ATS versus non-division opponents that scored 3 or fewer points in its previous game.

Defending Super Bowl champions (read: Seattle Seahawks) are just 7-9 SU and 3-13 ATS home after a Monday Night game, including 0-5 SU and ATS the last five games.


STAT OF THE WEEK

The Cincinnati Bengals are 11-0 SU and ATS in their last eleven regular season home games.

Thanks. Lawrence is one of the few very useful cappers in that business.

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
By Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Redskins are 11-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 5, 2003 as a road dog after playing at home in each of the previous two weeks.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-13 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since November 28, 2010 as a favorite when the total is under 53 after playing as a home favorite last game.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- Russell Wilson is 10-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) in his career coming off a game where he completed at least 72% of his passes.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Cowboys are 9-0 ATS as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.8 yards per carry season-to-date.

NFL O/U TREND:

-- The Falcons are 0-11 OU (-7.05 ppg) since November 22, 1998 as a home favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM:

-- Teams that won last game despite allowing at least 175 rushing yards are 122-98-5 ATS. Active on Dallas.

Titans winless ATS in their last eight home games
Stephen Campbell

The Tennessee Titans continue to post ugly numbers against the spread at LP Field. In the Titans' last eight home games, they're 0-7-1 ATS.

Tennessee will try and buck that trend when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday. The Jags have had their own issues this year, as they've yet to produce a single cover in their first five games.

The Titans are currently listed as 4.5-point home faves with a total of 43.

NFL Football Trends

NFL Betting Trends for Sunday, Oct. 12th

Denver at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Denver: 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
NY Jets: 16-5 ATS after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 42-24 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games
Cleveland: 0-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive overs

Jacksonville at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-21 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Tennessee: 9-1 OVER after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game

Chicago at Atlanta, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 5-16 ATS after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored
Atlanta: 3-19 ATS after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Green Bay at Miami, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 44-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
Miami: 6-0 ATS as a home underdog

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 0-9 ATS off a non-conference game
Minnesota: 67-40 OVER after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Carolina at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 11-3 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Cincinnati: 8-24 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points

New England at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
New England: 76-52 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games
Buffalo: 31-14 ATS after a win by 3 or less points

Baltimore at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 38-22 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Tampa Bay: 19-5 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games

San Diego at Oakland, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 16-6 ATS after allowing 6 points or less last game
Oakland: 16-6 UNDER after a bye week

Dallas at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Seattle: 12-4 ATS against conference opponents
Dallas: 42-25 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Washington at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Washington: 0-4 against NFC West division opponents
Arizona: 10-3 off 1 or more straight overs

NY Giants at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
NY Giants: 33-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Philadelphia: 30-13 UNDER in home games in October games

Monday, Oct. 13th

San Francisco at St Louis, 8:30 ET
San Francisco: 10-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
St Louis: 7-0 OVER after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games

NFL

Denver @ NY Jets
The Broncos are 17-6 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 23-15 ATS overall, 22-11 ATS playing as a favorite, 12-3 ATS against losing teams and 4-1 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points. Denver is 84-54 Over the total as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 147-97 Over overall as a favorite, 107-61 Over with a total of 42½ to 49 points, 57-34 Over in weeks 5 through 9 and 40-24 Over on turf. The Jets are 5-12 ATS at home with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 0-4 ATS overall this season. New York is 5-2 Under off 2 or more consecutive losses. In This series Denver is 8-3 ATS including 3-1 at New York and 4 of the last 5 in New York have gone Over the total.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
The Steelers are 59-35 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, 25-18 ATS as road underdogs of 3 points or less and 67-47 ATS overall in the underdog role. Pittsburg is 8-2 Under in weeks 5 through 9 and 27-17 Under as road dogs of 3 points or less. The Browns are 4-9 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 2-5 ATS as favorites and 0-3 ATS as home favorites of 3 points or less. Cleveland is 4-0 Over this season, but 26-9 Under as home favorites of 3 points or less. In this series Pittsburgh is 34-7 straight up including 14-5 straight up at Cleveland.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee
The Jaguars are 11-20 ATS playing on grass and 8-13 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses. Jacksonville is 4-1 Over on grass. The Titans are just 2-9 ATS versus divisional opponents, but 6-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses. Tennessee a big 44-23 Over playing in October and 8-3 Over after 2 or more consecutive losses. In this series the last 2 meetings in Tennessee have gone Over the total.

Chicago @ Atlanta
The Bears are 5-15 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 13-23 ATS overall, 5-11 ATs as underdogs, 7-20 ATs against NFC opponents, 0-3 ATS agaainst NFC South opponents, 1-5 ATS playing in domes and 4-9 ATS versus losing teams. Chicago is 25-12 Over overall, 15-6 Over when the line is 3 or less, 11-5 Over as an underdog, 15-4 Over on the road and 11-2 Over versus losing teams. The Falcons are 6-10 ATS versus losing teams, but 5-2 ATS at home when the total is 49½ points or more. Atlanta is 6-3 Under in weeks 5 through 9, 13-7 Under at home when the total is 49½ or more and 9-4 Under overall when the total is 49½ or more. In this series Chicago is 6-2 ATS and the total is 7-2 Over including 5-0 Over when playing in Atlanta.

Green Bay @ Miami
The Packers are 4-9 ATS when the line is 3 points or less and 2-5 ATS on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, but they’re 16-10 ATS as favorites and 7-3 ATS in weekd 5 through 9. Green Bay is 13-7 Over on the road, 7-1 Over on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points and 53-39 Over versus AFC opponents, but they’re 10-5 Under off a divisional game and 7-3 Under off a divisional win. The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS as home dogs of 3 points or less and 10-6 ATS at home. Miami is 4-1 Over as home dogs of 3 or less, 14-8 Under off a bye week and 8-4 Under versus winning teams.

Detroit @ Minnesota
The Lions are 11-16 ATS versus NFC opponents and 2-6 ATS versus losing teams. Detroit is 6-3 Over in weeks 5 through 9. The Vikings are 3-7 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, but 7-4 ATS off a divisional game. Minnesota 57-35 Over the total in weeks 5 through 9. In this series Minnesota is 31-13 straight up including 19-3 straight up at home. Minnesota is 3-1 ATS the last 4 meetings.

Carolina @ Cincinnati
The Panthers are 5-1 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 28-19 ATS as road dogs of 3½ to 7 points including 5-0 lately, 19-9 ATS on the road when the total is 42½ to 45 points,61-41 ATS with a total of 42½ to 49 points and 7-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, but they’re just 3-6 ATS versus AFC opponents. Carolina is 50-35 Under in weeks 5 through 9 and 16-9 Under with a total of 42½ 49 points. The Bengals are 22-14 ATS overall, 11-3 ATS as favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 7-1 ATS as home favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 13-5 ATS overall at home, 15-8 ATS on turf, 7-1 ATS against NFC opponents and 7-3 ATS against winning teams, but they’re 3-7 ATS in weeks 5 through 9. Cincinnati is 79-58 Under when the total is 42½ to 49 points, but 6-3 Over versus NFC opponents and 6-3 Over in weeks 5 through 9. In this series 3 of the last 4 have gone Over the total.

New England @ Buffalo
The Patriots are 18-12 ATS on turf and 9-4 ATS when the line is 3 points or less. New England is 20-12 Over versus AFC opponents, 20-10 Over on turf, 11-4 Over versus winning teams and 8-2 Over in weeks 5 through 9. The Bills are 16-10 ATS home dogs of 3 points or less, 11-5 ATS overall at home and 4-1 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points. Buffalo is 11-4 Under when the line is 3 points or less and 16-10 Under at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points. In this series New England is 13-7 ATS at Buffalo and 3 of the last 4 have gone Over the total.

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
The Ravens are 2-6 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 3-7 ATS versus losing teams, but they’re 6-3 ATS versus NFC opponents and 3-1 ATS road favorites of 3 points or less. Baltimore is 4-1 Under as road favorites of 3 points or less and 7-3 Under versus losing teams, but also 6-3 Over versus NFC opponents. The Buccaneers are 11-16 ATS home dogs of 3 points or less, but 6-3 ATS against AFC opponents. Tampa Bay is 16-10 Over as an underdog and 9-0 Over in weeks 5 through 9, but 18-7 Under versus AFC North opponents. In this series all 4 meetings since 1992 have gone Over the total.

San Diego @ Oakland
The Chargers are 63-46 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points including 5-0 this year, 12-6 ATS on the road, 17-10 ATS versus AFC opponents including 3-0 this year and 62-42 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins, but they’re just 15-25 ATS on the road with a total of 42½ to 45 points. San Diego is 17-12 Under versus AFC opponents. The Raiders are 14-20 ATS overall, 7-12 ATS as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 8-14 ATS home dogs of 3½ to 7 points, 8-17 ATS on grass, 5-9 ATS off 2 or more consecutive losses and 64-89 ATS at home including 5-11 lately. Oakland is 12-7 Under as underdogs of 3½ to 9½ points, 10-6 Under at home and 16-6 Under coming off a bye week. In this series San Diego is 16-6 ATS at Oakland. 3 of the last 4 have gone Under the total including 2 straight in Oakland.

Dallas @ Seattle
The Cowboys are 12-6 ATS playing as underdogs, but 3-8 ATS as road dogs of 7½ to 10 points. Dallas is 18-11 Under on the road with a total of 45½ to 49 points, but 6-1 Over off 2 or more consecutive wins. The Seahawks are 29-12 ATS overall, 12-3 ATS favorites of 3½ to 9½ points, 20-11 ATS overall favorites, 15-5 ATS at home, 22-8 ATS versus NFC opponents, 21-10 ATS on turf, 12-4 ATS versus winning teams, 13-6 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins and 16-6 ATS when the total is 42½ to 49 points, but they’re 29-53 ATS in October despite winning last week. Seattle is 4-0 Under versus NFC East opponents, but 9-4 Over after playing Monday night. In this series The Under is 8-3 including 4-1 Under playing in Seattle.

Washington @ Arizona
The Redskins are 0-4 ATS versus NFC West opponents and 8-16 ATS after playing on Monday night. Washington is 4-0 Over under a dome, but 15-9 Under after playing Monday night. The Cardinals are 3-0 ATS versus NFC East opponents, but 2-8 ATS weeks 5 through 9. Arizona is 18-10 Under playing on turf and 3-0 Under versus NFC East opponents.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia
The Giants are 25-17 ATS as road dogs of 3 points or less, 7-3 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 and 62-44 ATS off 2 or more consecutive wins. New York is 12-5 Under when the line is 3 points or less, 12-6 Under on the road, 9-1 Under versus winning teams and 18-10 Under against NFC opponents. The Eagles are 5-14 ATS playing at home, 14-23 ATS overall, 4-8 ATS versus divisional opponents, 11-18 ATS on grass and 3-8 ATS versus winning teams. Philadelphia is 12-7 Over at home and 16-10 Over when the total is 49½ points or more.

San Francisco @ St Louis
The 49ers are 7-3 ATS when the line is 3 points or less, 26-16 ATS overall, 22-13 ATS overall favorites, 14-6 ATS on the road, 28-10 ATS on Monday night, 7-2 ATS in weeks 5 through 9, 6-3 ATs playing in a dome and 5-1 ATS as road favorites of 3 points or less. San Francisco is 7-3 Over versus losing teams. The Rams are 17-32 ATS at home with a total of 42½ to 45 points, 51-73 ATS versus winning teams, 1-3 ATS this season including 0-2 ATS at home. St Louis is 57-41 Under when the line is 3 points or less, but 14-8 Over playing under a dome, 8-1 Over after 2 or more consecutive losses and 7-3 Over in weesk 5 through 9. In this series San Francisco is 27-15 ATS versus St Louis including 13-7 at St Louis.