I'm gonna make this a season long thread in case hookem22 does not show up.

Below I'm copying the criteria for the chase, according to hookem:

Simple Home Chase Filters-Based on the start of the series.
1. Home team is .500 or better at home.
2. Home team is at least 5-5 last 10 games.
3. Visitor is .500 or less on the road.
4. Home team must lose first game.
5. For 4 game sets, home team must lose first 2 games.

*2009 Added Filter-The home team must be the favorite to be a chase. If game 1 of the chase is lost and the home team is a dog for game 2, then the chase is abandoned and we take the one game loss.

*2010 Added Filter-No chase on game 1 if the line is above -250. Not worth the risk.
**2010 No Inter league chases.

I will also add the AFC (Additional Filtered Chases) as well to the overall record:

These AFC chases are achieved when all the filters are met with the exception of the Home team being 5-5 in their last 10 games. If they are coming off a road trip wherein they dropped below 5-5 L10, they are a play.

This year I will also track the Game 1's, as last year a lot of the home teams won their first game. This will be in a separate record from the Chases. I will not track the 4-game series for now as I don't know how they performed.

Good Luck

SHC
TB @ NYY
TEX @ LAA

AFC
CWS @ CLE
ARZ @ SD

Definitely been awhile since I've been on here. I found out last season that my theory behind the AFC chases to be true. At the All-Star break, they were 28-1 (26.2 units) with that loss being a dropped chase after one game.

I played these from game 1. I also played them through interleague. There were 20 game 1 wins, 7 game 2 wins, and 1 game 3 win. I lost my info on the final numbers. There was one crucial loss late and I believe I finished a little shy of 33 units.

I will try to post in your thread to track it along with you. Good luck this season.

thank you for this

Glad to see this back. I'll be on the train.

TB @ NYY (-200)
TEX @ LAA (-140)

AFC
ARZ @ SD (-125)


Game 1s
SHC 0-2 (dogs 0-1)
AFC 1-1

ARZ @ SD (-125) - risk 2.83

Hi All,

I too look to play this SHC.. Friday i crossed this SD series off as they were 4-6 last 10 heading into this series.. Was this a correct filter?need to be 5-5 or did I miss something.. Good luck with the SD play today.

Just saw its a AFC.. not sure the parameters on that.. .Can someone PM them to me. .thanks

SHC
TB @ NYY (-200) - WON
TEX @ LAA (-140) - WON

AFC
ARZ @ SD (-125) - risk 2.83 WON

SHC 2-0
AFC 1-0

Game 1s
SHC 0-2 (dogs 0-1)
AFC 1-1

SHC
HOU @ DET 4-game
SEA @ OAK 4-game
ARZ @ MIL

BAL @ TB

BAL @ TB (-125)

BAL @ TB (-175) - risk 3.94

BAL @ TB (-175) - risk 3.94 - LOSS

-5.19u

SHC 2-1 -3.19u
AFC 1-0

Game 1s
SHC 1-3 (dogs 0-1)
AFC 1-1

SHC
HOU @ BAL
MIN @ DET
STL @ PIT

AFC
PHI @ NYM

I have Col @ Cincy also as an AFC start for today. My resources are a little limited on my phone however. Let's have a good weekend.

I did not list COL @ CIN since CIN were not really on a road trip, but had only 2 games away at BOS. I usually don't count this as a road trip and thus an AFC.

Does it matter how many games the road trip consists of?

I have no data to back that up but it seems like a good spot to get a W by following the "AFC" only system. I personally will be chasing them.

PHI @ NYM (-127)