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playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
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World Series GM 6***2013
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 559-138 (.802)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 104-35 (.748)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 66-29 (.695)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 40-19 (.678)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 383-314 (.549)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 69-70 (.496)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 44-51 (.463)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 23-36 (.390)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ HHVVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 43-10 (.811)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 28-6 (.824)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 31-10 (.756)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 16-6 (.727)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-21 (.604)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 21-13 (.618)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 22-19 (.537)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 11-11 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
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10-30-13 08:22 PM |
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playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
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ADDING
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLLWW irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 46-15 (.754)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 5-4 (.556)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 5-4 (.556)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 3-3 (.500)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 30-31 (.492)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 3-6 (.333)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 3-6 (.333)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 1-5 (.167)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLLWW @ HHVVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLLWW with site order HHVVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 4-2 (.667)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 2-1 (.667)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 4-2 (.667)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 2-1 (.667)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-4 (.333)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 0-3 (.000)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 2-4 (.333)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 0-3 (.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
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10-30-13 08:23 PM |
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playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
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ADDING
St. Louis Cardinals 97-65 (60%) @ Boston Red Sox 97-65 (60%)
M. Wacha, my #35 ranked SP, starting for St. Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 3.25 (#24 in MLB), xFIP of 3.78 (#70 in MLB), tERA of 3.24 (#11 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.88 (#65 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.42. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.71, with a WHIP of 1.13, and opponent BA of .219. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 39% for a 1.13 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.
J. Lackey, my #47 ranked SP, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 3.86 (#78 in MLB), xFIP of 3.49 (#37 in MLB), tERA of 4.17 (#60 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.56 (#32 in MLB), with a BABIP of .281, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.34. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.03, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .245. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.34 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.
St. Louis Cardinals have the #3 bullpen, #10 offense (#6 vs Righties / #20 vs Lefties), and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-38 (53%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Won 6 in a row.
Boston Red Sox have the #11 bullpen, #1 offense (#1 vs Righties / #8 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 53-28 (65%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.
Odds: STL +110 (48%) BOS -119 (54%) O/U = 7
Lean: STL
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10-30-13 11:56 PM |
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playtowin
Restricted User
Registered: Apr 2006
Posts: 8329
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ADDING***BY V.B.
In 27 post-season innings, Wacha has allowed 11 hits for a 3.7 H/9 rate. His only 3 ER’s allowed came on 2 HR’s, which is a concern of course. But Wacha only had a 7.4% HR/FB rate during the season and 0.7 HR/9, so it’s not like he’s prone to allowing these. By comparison, Lackey has a 13.3% HR/FB rate (similar FB rate as Wacha) and 1.2 HR/9 during the season. The fact that he’s allowed zero so far in the post-season is irrelevant, and to me he’s more likely than Wacha to allow a homer. By comparison to Wacha, Lackey has allowed 16 hits in 18 post-season innings for a 8.0 H/9 rate. Clearly, Wacha has been a more dominant pitcher in the post-season. Lackey also had to pitch an inning in game 4, throwing 17 pitches in that one. I don’t know if that will have any effect on him tonight, but it could. Lackey is 35 years old and any type of additional work during this time of the year could have an impact on his efficiency. Besides, he was pretty inefficient in that relief appearance throwing only 9 strikes to 8 balls for a 53% strike-rate. Cards have their strongest lineup of the series in there tonight, they have a better pitcher on the mound, and they’re the type of a veteran team (with WS experience) that shouldn’t be rattled by the fact that this is an elimination game for them. I think they have a great shot to even out the series today.
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10-30-13 11:58 PM |
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