MLB Future Picks

March 30, 2013


World Series Long Shot: Milwaukee Brewers 40:1

**This prediction and analysis was done before the Brewers signed pitcher Kyle Lohse. The odds have moved very little if at all since the signing so you should still be able to get Milwaukee at 40 to 1 or something very close.

While Cincinnati and St. Louis will be the favorites in the National League Central, Milwaukee presents much better value at 40:1, relative to 10:1 for the Reds and 16:1 for the Cardinals. Those three teams have been 1, 2, 3 in the NL Central the past two years but Milwaukee has had actually had the best cumulative record over the past two years combined. Milwaukee had a slow start last season with major bullpen issues but the offense was hot late in the season and the Brewers closed the year going 36-17 the final two months to make it into the Wild Card race before falling just short. While Milwaukee is rightfully a long shot, the Brewers have a very reasonable shot to make the playoffs and there would be great hedging opportunities holding a ticket at this price at that point.

The pitching staff was in flux most of last season and while Zack Greinke is gone, so are Randy Wolf and Shaun Marcum after both struggled last season. The injuries last season allowed Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada to earn places in the rotation and both had very successful runs last season. Mark Rogers and Wily Peralta also both made debuts last year and could provide a boost to the rotation as well as they are two of the top prospects in the Milwaukee organization. Yovani Gallardo continues to be one of the more consistent starters in baseball despite limited recognition and he had 25 quality starts in 33 outings last season. The return of Chris Narveson after missing almost all of last season also gives the Milwaukee rotation more depth. While this rotation may not compete with the likes of Washington or Philadelphia, in the NL Central Milwaukee's starting five looks pretty solid.

The potential suspension of Ryan Braun looms over this team but after facing great scrutiny last season Braun delivered a season that rivaled his 2011 MVP season. Aramis Ramirez often starts slow but he ended the year with very productive numbers and Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki both had excellent seasons last year and gives the Brewers one of the better hitting outfields in the league as well as great speed on the base paths. The wild card for the Brewers could be the middle infield as Jean Segura started to show promise late last season at shortstop and Rickie Weeks did emerge from an awful first half with a more respectable second half. If Weeks can return to his 2010 or 2011 numbers this can again be one of the better offenses in the National League. Jonathan Lucroy was also having a great season last year before going down with an injury so the potential upside of this lineup is tremendous.

This is not a franchise with a great history of success but this team was in the NLCS two years ago and after missing the playoffs last year this should be a very hungry squad with a great mix of veterans and young emerging stars. It will be a tough division especially with Houston taken out of the division but Cincinnati is not likely to get the same results from its pitching staff this season and the Cardinals also have questions in the rotation. Milwaukee had the worst record among the NL Central contenders vs. Houston last season so the other teams could be hurt more by Houston's departure to the American League. Given this pricing, the Brewers look like a team that could have a lot of potential if the pitching staff pans out and the bullpen shows modest and expected improvement. Miller Park has held one of the top home field advantages in baseball in recent years and Milwaukee will have a good chance to find a way into the playoff picture and could certainly be a tough team to beat in a short playoff series.

Season Win Totals: OVER 89 Toronto Blue Jays

Teams making a big flurry of high-profile acquisitions have often fallen flat as the Marlins were prime examples last season. Toronto took advantage of the mess in Miami and acquired two excellent veteran pitchers and an All Star shortstop as the Blue Jays appear to be all-in this season. The Blue Jays finished just 73-69 last season but this was a team that scored 716 runs. Adding Jose Reyes to the top of the lineup could provide a boost to that production but the big difference this year will be in the pitching staff.

Last year's #1 starter Ricky Romero had a truly awful season but with all the moves this winter Romero will be slated to be the #5 starter this year. Romero should be due for a bounce back season and Brandon Morrow is the other holdover for the Blue Jays coming off a very solid year. At the top of the rotation three All Stars have been added with the 2012 NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey joined by Marlins defects Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle. Injuries are a concern for any pitching staff but this rotation has as much potential as any in the American League if the starting pitching staff can stay healthy. The improvement in the starting rotation with veterans that can produce consistent starts will also provide a big help to the bullpen. For once the AL East appears to be wide open. New York won the division last season but fizzled in the playoffs and the Yankees are limping through spring training with several key injuries. Baltimore had a historic season but all things point downward for the Orioles after a truly remarkable run of good fortune, finishing 24-games above .500 despite being only +7 in run differential. Tampa Bay will be in the mix as always and Boston certainly has no where to go but up after a disastrous season but every other team seems to have missing pieces and features key areas of transition. Toronto's administration seems to be sensing this opportunity and the team appears to be willing to spend money and perhaps make mid-season acquisitions to contend this year if necessary.

The Jays do enter with a new manager after John Farrell was poached by the Red Sox and John Gibbons will face high expectations in his first year as skipper but this is a team of veterans that should come together well. The Blue Jays are pegged at 10:1 to win the World Series with only four teams ahead of them yet 89 wins seems very attainable with the other four World Series favorites all priced in the 90s for a season win total. Toronto has not reached 89 wins since the second of two back-to-back World Series titles in 1992 and 1993 however so this number is expecting a serious breakthrough and there is serious risk of potential injuries with a veteran team. Things seem to be aligned for the Blue Jays with the big deals coming together however and this should be the first year in some time where fans north of the border have something to seriously cheer about.

Season Win Totals: UNDER 88 San Francisco Giants

At first glance this total might seem low for a team that has won two of the last three World Series titles but there are serious concerns for the Giants after everything fell together for this squad last season. Tim Lincecum can no longer be counted on as an ace starter after his struggles last season and it is not clear that he will be able to hold a spot in the rotation. After career years from Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner last season and the first strong season from Barry Zito in years, a step-back year for the rotation may be in order. San Francisco had five starters eclipse 184 innings last season, something that just does not happen consistently in this day and age and while the rotation should still rank among the best starting units in the National League, the competition in the division should make wins tougher to come by.

Buster Posey is also coming off an unprecedented MVP season, coming back from serious injury. Advanced metrics suggest Posey greatly overachieved last season as he had a .368 BABIP and it is a stretch to suggest that he can get through 148 games behind the plate again next season, especially with the extra wear of the playoffs. The Giants retain Hunter Pence but no longer have Melky Cabrera who carried the team early in the season before his suspension. Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan both provided second half sparks for the Giants but banking on similar results with less urgency and after big paydays is a risk. This will still be a very limited lineup that is reliant on its pitching staff and its low-scoring home ballpark.

The bullpen was outstanding last season but it is an aging group with Jeremy Affeldt, Santiago Castilla, and Sergio Romo all at least 30 and now highly paid with new deals in the off-season. The outfield is also a big question mark with a potential platoon with Gregor Blanco and Andrew Torres in leftfield. Pablo Sandoval and Brandon Belt have also been streaky inconsistent players that may not be able to sustain success for an entire season. The Giants really don't have any impact prospects lurking other than perhaps outfielder Gary Brown and given the age of this team the potential for season-changing injuries is high, especially given how well everything played out for San Francisco last season.

San Francisco only won 94 games last season and only won 92 in 2010 when they also won the series so even a small decline in performance could push this team below this figure. The Dodgers have obviously made very aggressive moves looking to take over this division and Arizona was a threatening team late in the season after a rough start to the year. Both of those teams are expected to improve in their win totals and with Los Angeles now featuring a very formidable offense the toll could come on the Giants pitching staff in many of those games. San Diego and Colorado could also be more competitive than many expect making this a very tough division and the Giants are a strong candidate for a small decline in performance, similar to what happened after the team won the 2010 World Series. It is just very difficult to have so many variables line up for a special season like the Giants had last year.

April Pitchers Report

March 30, 2013

Major League Baseball trades places with College Hoops as the sports flavor of the month in April. And as we usher in America's favorite pastime, let's open the season with one of our favorite handicapping angles - good month pitchers.

Listed below are hurlers (and their team start record) that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of April. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in April team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years.

I'll be back next month with May's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, let's play ball!

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Burnett, A. J. (9-4) - The Pittsburgh right-hander this past season pitched like he did before the playing for the Yankees, much more relaxed and confident. Not every player is wired to play under the intense New York microscope and Burnett had more command with his fastball in the Steel City and his circle-change was brutal on left-handed hitters.

Correia, Kevin (10-5) - The former Pirate has moved to the American League and is now with Minnesota. Corrieia is a control pitcher and has to keep his below 90 MPH fastball and cutter down in the zone to be successful. He will have the advantage early of not being widely seen in the AL and could get off to a good start.

Halladay, Roy (12-4) - March was not kind the veteran hurler, suffering from a dead arm and a virus which cost him 10 pounds. But Halladay is a "gamer" and his repeatable delivery allows him to throw four different pitches for strikes. Expect the 35-year old to answer the bell and help Philadelphia win early.

Hamels, Cole (10-4) - Hamels is now the ace of the Phillies staff and his low-90's fastball lives at the bottom of the strike zone. Why the lefthander is so effective is because his changeup baffles hitters even today and it is a true swing and a miss pitch, which helps him pile up the victories.

Lohse, Kyle (11-3) -Free agent Lohse recently signed a three-year deal with Milwaukee. His last two years in St. Louis saw him become successful by getting ahead of hitters, avoiding walks and using an improved slider to fan more batters. The Brewers hope his April successes and last year's results continue.

Nolasco, Ricky (10-4) - The new ace of the Marlins is Nolasco, who works both sides of the plate with his fastball, fashions a curveball with a tight spin and downward movement, complimented by a split-change. The righty is a bulldog on the bump and seldom gives into hitters even when he lacks his best stuff.

Price, David (10-5) - One of the three best lefty's in baseball, Price is the real deal. His mid-90's fastball forces opposing teams to gear up for the heat and Price fools them frequently with a diving cutter or a power slider. If a hitter wants to sit on certain pitch, forget it, he'll throw the change which moves away from right-handed hitters.

Sabathia, CC (10-5) - Few pitchers in the big leagues are as reliable and consistent as Sabathia. His durability is virtually unmatched in today's game and he still can reach the mid-90's with complete command, moving the ball in-and-out or up and down. His slurvy breaking ball will often be his out pitch. The Yankees will need their ace early with all the injuries.

Shields, James (14-2) - We are about to find out just how good Shields actually is, playing with a poorer team in Kansas City, compared to Tampa Bay. Shields expertly locates his low 90's fastball and his change is so effective because the release point on this pitch is the same as his fastball, making it very deceiving. Can Shields lift his new teammates to his previous levels or does he sink to theirs?

Weaver, Jered (12-3) - While there are concerns about Weaver's drop in velocity in 2012, he still won 20 games with his ability to add or subtract speed off the fastball. Batters are continually off-balance with his assortment of high-spinning sliders, slow curves and changeups. Always wants the ball in big games.

Zito, Barry (8-4) - Zito was clutch in the postseason and was a factor why San Francisco won another World Series. The port-sider no longer throws very hard, but last season had better overall control, making his looping curveball and changeup more effective. Zito should still contribute as a fifth starter.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Blackburn, Nick (4-9) - Not expected to pitch for Minnesota this month and quite possibly longer after underdog surgery on his right wrist in January.

Buehrle, Mark (4-11) - Part of a blockbuster trade with Miami, Buehrle returns to the American League, looking to resurrect his career at 34 in Toronto. The lefty has thrown 200 or more innings each season since 2001, but his command is less stable as he has gotten older.

Danks, John (5-10) - Still recovering from 2012 season-ending shoulder surgery last August and is not expected to be with White Sox until his previous velocity returns.

Dempster, Ryan (4-10) - After spending his entire career in the National League, Dempster went to the American League and did little to help Texas last season, casting doubts about his potential success in Boston. Last year the 35-year old infrequently top 90 MPH, as opponents started to sit on the slider and drove it. Though Dempster has experience in playing in a small park, can he be more than .500 pitcher for the Red Sox?

Jackson, Edwin (5-10) - Though he doesn't turn 30 until September, this will be Edwin Jackson's eighth different Major League team. His greatest attribute is durability, but has never found a home because of too many uneven starts over a season. Jackson did post career strikeout rate in 2012, however, playing for the Cubs will not improve his win percentage.

Latos, Mat (4-9) - A notoriously slow starter, the Cincinnati right-hander's personal record in April is 2-8 with a 5.79 ERA lifetime. Once April was out of the way in 2012, Latos was 13-2 with a 3.09 ERA in his final 28 starts. Will he be able to clear the next hurdle in his career and pitch well this month?

Richard, Clayton (5-11) - The Padres left-hander will put together a group of quality starts giving hope he's finally figured how to succeed and will inevitably fail again, frustrating himself and his team. What typically is Richard's downfall is his inability to pitch inside to right hand batters, who swing too comfortably in the box.

Santana, Ervin (5-11) - Santana is wholly confident he can be the hurler he was before last season. To do so, he will be wearing a Kansas City uniform and no longer pitching in key contests like he did on Anaheim. After a disastrous first four months, Santana was pretty solid last August and most of September after it was discovered his release point flattened out his fastball and stole velocity from his slider. Which pitcher will the Royals see in 2013?

Saunders, Joe (4-10) - The 31-year old Virginia native is trying to keep up with Edwin Jackson, pitching for his fourth different team in four years with the move to Seattle. Saunders is in the Mariners starting rotation and has good control, but his stuff would be best described as below average.

Volstad, Chris (4-9) - Now with Colorado, if he makes the 25-man roster, he will likely not be in the starting rotation and instead be used as a middle reliever.

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Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Notes from Baseball America's Prospect Handbook, with top 30 prospects listed for every franchise.........

-- Astros' farm system had become so bare, they've acquired 10 prospects via trade since Jeff Luhnow took over as GM. Total rebuild job. Miami has acquired eight prospects in its various fire sales.

-- Giants have the most prospects drafted from colleges; 20 of their top 30 prospects were drafted by SF from 4-year colleges.

-- Tampa Bay has only three prospects they drafted from colleges, and 13 prospects they drafted from high schools. Rays like their pitchers to have 500 IP in the minors before coming to the majors.

-- Bronx Bombers have the most HS kids in their top 30 prospects, with 17 of 30, which may explain why their AA/AAA teams are thin on talent. It obviously takes lot longer to develop the younger prospect.

-- Texas/Detroit (13 each), Royals/Mets (11 each) have most international players in their top 30 prospects. San Diego doesn't have any.

-- Angels have six prospects from junior colleges; none of their top 30 guys were acquired by trade, the only team that can say that.


*****

Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: What we like about baseball starting......

13 reasons we’re glad baseball season is here………
13) Looking through boxscores is great fun for me, just like it is in basketball; lot of information to be gained by looking at columns of numbers. Its dorky but fun.

12) Love watching Giancarlo Stanton and Yoenis Cespedes hit.

11) At some point in the Dodgers’ opener, a runner will get to third base, and Vin Scully will immediately tell us how many wild pitches the pitcher had LY. Scully was doing this when freakin’ Harry Truman was President, and he’s still very, very good at it.

10) Sausage races in Milwaukee always make me laugh; who was the first person to suggest they would be a good idea, because they are.

9) Arguing with my father about the value of bunting vs playing for the big inning is an annual ritual, My dad is 87 and looks at me like I’m the dumbest person on earth. Imagine that?

8) Watching Joe Maddon manage a game, trying things other managers wouldn’t dare try. Its one of the advantages of managing in a small market; if some stuff doesn’t work, its no big deal, because most of what he tries work. In a big market, people stress out over everything, so its tough to try new things that might not work.

7) Like the black jerseys and black hats Diamondbacks wear for Saturday home games.

6) I love that Cecil Fielder is one of baseball’s most durable players; guy looks out of shape, but what he is not is overtrained, so he doesn’t pull an oblique every time he brushes his teeth. Very productive, dependable player.

5) I enjoy charting umpires when they work home plate, and see what patterns develop, because they inevitably do. Its an interesting study.

4) Enjoy listening to Dan Orsillo/Jerry Remy doing Red Sox games on NESN; when Orsillo gets laughing, he has a hard time stopping and it sounds like 10-year olds working a game. Good stuff.

3) Watching Jose Reyes/Carl Crawford run out triples is lot of fun; a healthy Reyes will hit a ton of triples on artificial turf in Sky Dome.

2) 7th inning stretch at Wrigley Field is still very cool, when a guest singer does Take Me Out to the Ballgame. Must be quite a waiting list to do that.

1) For me, the best part of baseball season is watching all the A’s games; last September/October’s divisional race was the most fun I’ve had watching sports, other than the year the Rams won the Super Bowl.
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MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, April 1

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MIAMI (69 - 93) at WASHINGTON (100 - 67) - 1:05 PM
RICKY NOLASCO (R) vs. STEPHEN STRASBURG (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 69-93 (-25.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 68-91 (-24.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 45-64 (-19.7 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 100-67 (+21.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 97-67 (+17.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NOLASCO is 55-41 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 53-40 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

RICKY NOLASCO vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
NOLASCO is 10-5 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.085.
His team's record is 11-7 (+3.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-11. (-5.8 units)

STEPHEN STRASBURG vs. MIAMI since 1997
STRASBURG is 4-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.17 and a WHIP of 1.179.
His team's record is 5-4 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-3. (+2.5 units)

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SAN DIEGO (76 - 86) at NY METS (74 - 88) - 1:10 PM
EDINSON VOLQUEZ (R) vs. JON NIESE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 16-34 (-18.0 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 58-50 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
NY METS are 36-45 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 36-45 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

EDINSON VOLQUEZ vs. NY METS since 1997
VOLQUEZ is 0-4 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 6.46 and a WHIP of 1.774.
His team's record is 0-5 (-6.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-3. (-1.3 units)

JON NIESE vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
NIESE is 1-2 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 1.99 and a WHIP of 0.882.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

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CHICAGO CUBS (61 - 101) at PITTSBURGH (79 - 83) - 1:35 PM
JEFF SAMARDZIJA (R) vs. A.J. BURNETT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 61-101 (-26.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 3-16 (-12.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 23-58 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 12-40 (-24.2 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 61-101 (-26.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 915-1007 (-183.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
BURNETT is 11-23 (-20.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JEFF SAMARDZIJA vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
SAMARDZIJA is 2-0 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 1.06 and a WHIP of 0.412.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

A.J. BURNETT vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
BURNETT is 6-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.172.
His team's record is 6-2 (+3.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.5 units)

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COLORADO (64 - 98) at MILWAUKEE (83 - 79) - 2:10 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. YOVANI GALLARDO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 137-189 (-51.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 15-38 (-22.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 137-189 (-51.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 34-10 (+18.1 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 111-58 (+35.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 111-58 (+35.1 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 84-41 (+29.4 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 25-35 (-17.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
CHACIN is 0-0 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 0.975.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.1 units)

YOVANI GALLARDO vs. COLORADO since 1997
GALLARDO is 0-4 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 6.52 and a WHIP of 1.655.
His team's record is 0-7 (-8.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-5. (-4.7 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (105 - 73) at LA DODGERS (86 - 76) - 4:10 PM
MATT CAIN (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
LA DODGERS are 96-64 (+25.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
KERSHAW is 40-15 (+17.1 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KERSHAW is 32-13 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 105-73 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-7 (+10.9 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 52-37 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 169-103 (+63.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 88-57 (+22.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 105-73 (+26.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 40-19 (+22.1 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MATT CAIN vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
CAIN is 4-8 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 3.41 and a WHIP of 1.353.
His team's record is 10-13 (-4.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-11. (-1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
KERSHAW is 8-4 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 1.38 and a WHIP of 0.863.
His team's record is 10-6 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 12-4. (+7.5 units)

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PHILADELPHIA (81 - 81) at ATLANTA (94 - 69) - 7:10 PM
COLE HAMELS (L) vs. TIM HUDSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 81-81 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 46-26 (+18.1 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HUDSON is 20-8 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 146-67 (+39.0 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997. (Team's Record)
HUDSON is 245-146 (+46.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 4-17 (-18.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

COLE HAMELS vs. ATLANTA since 1997
HAMELS is 12-7 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.195.
His team's record is 15-12 (-0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 13-12. (-1.1 units)

TIM HUDSON vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
HUDSON is 10-9 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP of 1.303.
His team's record is 15-12 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 13-14. (-2.0 units)

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ST LOUIS (95 - 80) at ARIZONA (81 - 81) - 10:10 PM
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. IAN KENNEDY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KENNEDY is 43-25 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 43-25 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
ARIZONA is 28-32 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. ARIZONA since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 5-2 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 2.27 and a WHIP of 1.260.
His team's record is 5-2 (+3.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-6. (-5.6 units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
KENNEDY is 1-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 8.59 and a WHIP of 1.545.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-3. (-2.5 units)

BOSTON (69 - 93) at NY YANKEES (98 - 73) - 1:05 PM
JON LESTER (L) vs. C.C. SABATHIA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 69-93 (-37.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 26-46 (-24.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 59-85 (-41.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LESTER is 13-20 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 12-18 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LESTER is 28-31 (-19.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NY YANKEES are 78-36 (+27.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JON LESTER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
LESTER is 9-4 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 4.10 and a WHIP of 1.445.
His team's record is 12-10 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 10-10. (-0.4 units)

C.C. SABATHIA vs. BOSTON since 1997
SABATHIA is 8-11 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.64 and a WHIP of 1.299.
His team's record is 9-15 (-9.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 13-10. (+2.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (72 - 90) at CHI WHITE SOX (85 - 77) - 4:10 PM
JAMES SHIELDS (R) vs. CHRIS SALE (L)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-35 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
SHIELDS is 10-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JAMES SHIELDS vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
SHIELDS is 4-3 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 4.73 and a WHIP of 1.363.
His team's record is 7-5 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-7. (-2.7 units)

CHRIS SALE vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
SALE is 3-3 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.388.
His team's record is 3-3 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-1. (+3.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DETROIT (95 - 80) at MINNESOTA (66 - 96) - 4:10 PM
JUSTIN VERLANDER (R) vs. VANCE WORLEY (R)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 41-47 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 37-44 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
VERLANDER is 58-25 (+24.4 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)
MINNESOTA is 64-99 (-36.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 64-99 (-36.2 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 86-142 (-37.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JUSTIN VERLANDER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
VERLANDER is 12-7 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.21 and a WHIP of 1.240.
His team's record is 14-9 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 14-7. (+7.1 units)

VANCE WORLEY vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (75 - 87) at OAKLAND (96 - 71) - 10:05 PM
FELIX HERNANDEZ (R) vs. BRETT ANDERSON (L)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 96-71 (+36.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 34-23 (+14.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 51-31 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 33-24 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 90-68 (+31.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 66-43 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 64-42 (+31.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 106-88 (+32.3 Units) against the money line in road games in April games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

FELIX HERNANDEZ vs. OAKLAND since 1997
HERNANDEZ is 13-6 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 2.82 and a WHIP of 1.173.
His team's record is 17-9 (+5.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 11-14. (-3.0 units)

BRETT ANDERSON vs. SEATTLE since 1997
ANDERSON is 7-3 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 1.76 and a WHIP of 1.126.
His team's record is 7-6 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-5. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA ANGELS (89 - 73) at CINCINNATI (99 - 68) - 4:10 PM
JERED WEAVER (R) vs. JOHNNY CUETO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 8-15 (-13.4 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 99-68 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 99-68 (+15.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CUETO is 39-19 (+15.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 15-2 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CUETO is 39-18 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 665-650 (+64.1 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 83-62 (+28.7 Units) against the money line in road games in an inter-league game since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 243-202 (+68.9 Units) against the money line in road games in day games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 554-537 (+66.1 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
WEAVER is 45-18 (+18.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
WEAVER is 44-17 (+18.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JERED WEAVER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

JOHNNY CUETO vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

MLB
Short Sheet

Monday, April 1

National League

Miami at Washington, 1:05 ET
Nolasco: Miami 6-16 SU as an underdog of +175 to +250
Strasburg: 14-2 TSR in day games

San Diego at NY Mets, 1:10 ET
Volquez: 31-20 TSR as an underdog of +150 or less
Niese: 11-19 TSR as a home favorite

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh, 1:35 ET
Samardzija: Cubs 12-40 SU away in day games
Burnett: 11-2 TSR in the first half of the season

Colorado at Milwaukee, 2:10 ET
Chacin: Colorado 15-38 SU in day games
Gallardo: 20-5 TSR as a home favorite of -125 to -175

San Francisco at LA Dodgers, 4:10 ET ESPN
Cain: San Francisco 23-12 Over away with a total of 7 runs or less
Kershaw: 40-15 TSR with a total of 7 runs or less

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 7:10 ET ESPN2
Hamels: 7-2 TSR in April
Hudson: Atlanta 4-17 SU on Mondays

St. Louis at Arizona, 10:10 ET ESPN2
Wainwright: St. Louis 11-2 Under away in April
Kennedy: 22-11 TSR in home games


American League

Boston at NY Yankees, 1:05 ET ESPN
Lester: 6-2 TSR as a road underdog of +125 to +150
Sabathia: 14-3 Over as a favorite of -125 to -175

Kansas City at Chicago White Sox, 4:10 ET
Shields: 11-1 Under away vs. division opponents
Sale: 10-4 TSR in home games

Detroit at Minnesota, 4:10 ET
Verlander: 40-11 TSR as a favorite of -150 or higher
Worley: Minnesota 14-39 SU as a home underdog of +125 or higher

Seattle at Oakland, 10:05 ET
Hernandez: Seattle 27-13 Under as a favorite of -150 or less
Anderson: 4-10 TSR in April


Interleague

LA Angels at Cincinnati, 4:10 ET
Weaver: Angels 8-15 SU in April
Cueto: 15-2 TSR in day games

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 1

We'll have a lot more information up once the teams get a week or so under their belts. For the first week, its mostly starting pitchers and umpires- the pitchers' and umps' information, obviously, refers to last year's stats.

Hot pitchers
-- Niese is 5-3, 2.35 in his last eight starts.
-- Samardzija was 1-1, 2.25 in two starts last September (2-0, 1.59 vs Pitt).
-- Milwaukee is 11-1 in Gallardo's last 12 starts (2-1, 3.23 last five). Chacin is 1-0, 3.32 in his last four starts.
-- Cain is 5-2, 2.78 in his last nine starts (1-0, 2.73, last four vs SF). Kershaw is 3-3, 1.58 in his last eight starts (2-3, 1.62 vs SF).
-- Phillies won nine of last ten Hamels starts (2-0, 3.00 last three, 1-1, 3.46 in four starts vs Atl LY). Hudson is 1-1, 2.51 in his last two starts (3-1, 4.30 in five starts LY vs Phils).
-- Kennedy is 3-1, 2.65 in his last five starts.

-- Weaver is 4-1, 2.54 in his last five starts. Cueto is 2-0, 2.20 in his last four.

-- Sabathia is 4-1, 2.58 in his last six starts (1-1, 5.14 vs Bos).
-- Shields is 3-3, 1.88 in his last seven starts (0-1, 5.84 two starts vs CWS).
-- Verlander is 7-1, 1.66 in his last eight starts (2-0, 1.13 vs Minn).
-- Anderson was 3-0, 0.95 in three home starts LY.

Cold pitchers
-- Strasburg was 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts before getting shut down in early September (3-1, 4.15 in five starts vs Miami LY). Nolasco is 0-3, 5.29 in his last three starts (2-2, 2.54 vs Nats, with shutouts in his last two starts against them).
-- Volquez was 2-2, 4.67 in five starts last September (0-2, 4.91 vs NYM).
-- Burnett is 1-5, 3.96 in his last six starts (2-1, 3.26 vs Cubs).
-- Wainwright is 0-2, 8.63 in his last five road starts.

-- Lester is 0-3, 4.15 in his last five starts (1-1, 4.55 in 5 starts vs NYY).
-- Sale is 0-2, 5.82 in his last three starts (1-1, 5.06 vs TB).
-- Worley is 0-3, 6.75 in his last five starts.
-- FHernandez is 0-4, 7.13 in his last six starts (1-2, 4.28 in 5 starts vs A's).

Totals
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Nolasco's last seven starts.
-- Five of last seven Niese starts stayed under.
-- Under is 12-1-1 in last fourteen Samardzija starts.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in Chacin's last six road starts.
-- Five of last seven Cain starts stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Hudson games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Wainwright starts went over.

-- Under is 7-2-2 in last eleven Cueto starts.

-- Last nine Lester starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Shields starts stayed under total.
-- Over is 7-4-1 in Worley's last twelve starts.
-- Seven of last nine Hernandez starts stayed under.
Reply With Quote

MLB

Monday, April 1

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Trend Report
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1:05 PM
MIAMI vs. WASHINGTON
Miami is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Washington
Miami is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 15 games

1:05 PM
BOSTON vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
Boston is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games at home
NY Yankees are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games at home

1:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NY METS
The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Diego's last 14 games when playing NY Mets
San Diego is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
NY Mets are 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Mets's last 6 games

1:35 PM
CHI CUBS vs. PITTSBURGH
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
Pittsburgh is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

2:10 PM
COLORADO vs. MILWAUKEE
Colorado is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Colorado is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Colorado

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 5 games when playing San Francisco

4:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games at home
Chi White Sox are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games

4:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. CINCINNATI
LA Angels are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Angels's last 6 games on the road
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games

4:10 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

7:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ATLANTA
Philadelphia is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Atlanta
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Atlanta is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games

10:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
St. Louis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
St. Louis is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Arizona is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing St. Louis

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND
Seattle is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games at home

MLB

Monday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB Opening Day betting cheat sheet
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-120, 8)

Probable starting pitchers: Jon Lester (BOS), CC Sabathia (NYY)

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson will all be starting the season on the disabled list for New York, leaving veterans like recently acquired Vernon Wells and former Boston star Kevin Youkilis to carry the weight. Yankees ace CC Sabathia owns an 8-9 record with a 4.23 ERA in 22 career starts against Boston. The under is 6-0 in Jon Lester’s last six starts vs. American League East opposition.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-260, 7)

Probable starting pitchers: Ricky Nolasco (FLA), Stephen Strasburg (WSH)

Giancarlo Stanton, who is 5-for-13 in his career against Stephen Strasburg, is the only player that started on Opening Day last season for Miami expected in Monday’s lineup. The over is 5-0 in Strasburg’s last five starts in the opener of a series and Ricky Nolasco is 11-5 against Washington – the most wins he has against any team.

San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-139, 7.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Edinson Volquez (SD), Jon Niese (NYM)

The Padres were 49-37 in their last 86 games a year ago and hope to build on that improvement. San Diego starts that quest without talented third baseman Chase Headley, who is out a couple more weeks with a fractured left thumb. Edinson Volquez is coming off his best season since 2008, striking out 174 in 182 2/3 innings in his first campaign with San Diego. He is 0-4 lifetime against the Mets with a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 innings.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-122, 7.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Jeff Samardzija (CHC), A.J. Burnett (PIT)

The Pirates were 16 games above .500 on Aug. 8 before going 16-46 the rest of the way to complete their 20th consecutive losing season. Pittsburgh's active roster is a combined 11-for-61 (.180) against Jeff Samardzija, but OF Andrew McCutchen has enjoyed limited success, going 3-for-10 against him. Samardzija won both of his starts against the Pirates in 2012, compiling 14 strikeouts and a 1.06 ERA in 17 innings. Chicago is 5-1 in its last six games in Pittsburgh.

Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers (-141, 7.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Jhoulys Chacin (COL), Yovani Gallardo (MIL)

Yovani Gallardo is 0-4 with a 5.82 ERA against the Rockies in eight career appearances. The Brewers are 0-7 in Gallardo’s last seven starts vs. the Rockies, who have taken the last four matchups with the Brew Crew. Colorado was the only NL team the Brewers failed to beat more than once in 2012.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-156, 6)

Probable starting pitchers: Matt Cain (SF), Clayton Kershaw (LAD)

Clayton Kershaw has been particularly tough on the Giants in his career, owning a 1.37 ERA in 16 starts and posting two of his five shutouts. San Francisco 3B Pablo Sandoval has only had two at-bats since March 16 because of a lingering right elbow injury that could force him to sit out the opener. The under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.

Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds (-109, 7.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Jered Weaver (LAA), Johnny Cueto (CIN)

Jered Weaver has thrived in interleague play with a 12-3 career record in 20 starts with a 2.61 ERA. The Angels will rely on Weaver to lead the rotation again this year after he led the American League last season in several categories, including winning percentage (.800), opponents average (.214), WHIP (1.018) and hits per nine innings (7.0). The Angels are 8-1 in last their nine Opening Day games, including four straight wins.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (+176, 7.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Justin Verlander (DET), Vance Worley (MIN)

Vance Worley struggled a bit in the spring, finishing with a 5.73 ERA over 22 innings of work -- striking out 13 and walking only three. Justin Verlander, the 2011 AL MVP, gets the ball for the Tigers in the opener for the sixth straight year. Surprisingly, he has never won in five career Opening Day starts (0-1). The Tigers are 8-0 in Verlander’s last eight starts vs. the Twins. Weather forecasts are projecting chilly temperatures around the freezing mark for this game.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-140, 7.5)

Probable starting pitchers: James Shields (KC), Chris Sale (CWS)

Chris Sale has earned his first career Opening Day start after being selected as an All-Star in 2012. He went 3-3 with an impressive 3.12 ERA in six starts against Kansas City last season. The Royals counter with their newly acquired weapon James Shields. Kansas City took 12 of the 18 games in the series last season and the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-122, 7)

Probable starting pitchers: Cole Hamels (PHI), Tim Hudson (ATL)

The Phillies are missing one of their top offensive players to start 2013 as catcher Carlos Ruiz begins a 25-game suspension for using a banned stimulant. Atlanta will also will be without its starting catcher for the first month as Brian McCann continues to recover from off-season shoulder surgery. Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels looks more than ready for Opening Day, dominating in five Grapefruit League starts while going 3-0 and holding opponents to a .172 batting average. But the Phillies are 0-5 in the last five meetings when Hamels faces Tim Hudson.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (-106, 6.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Felix Hernandez (SEA), Brett Anderson (OAK)

Brett Anderson has stymied the Mariners often in his brief career, compiling a 7-3 record and 1.76 ERA in 13 career outings. But he takes the hill against a Seattle squad that smashed 58 homers in 33 spring-training games. The Athletics went 12-7 against the Mariners last season and have taken seven consecutive meetings.

St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks (-106, 8.5)

Probable starting pitchers: Adam Wainwright (STL), Ian Kennedy (ARZ)

Ian Kennedy is 1-3 lifetime against the Cardinals and lost both starts last season. The 28-year-old is tough to beat at home - he was 8-4 at Chase Field in 2012 (one of the losses was to St. Louis) and 19-6 over the past two seasons. St. Louis was 5-1 against Arizona in 2012, including 3-0 at Chase Field. The over is 7-0 in the Cardinals’ last seven games as road underdogs.

MLB

Monday, April 1

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Opening Day weather watch: Chilly in Minny
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Weather not only plays a huge factor on Opening Day but in nearly every baseball game in April.

Mother Nature is clearly a fan of the long ball because winds are projected to blow out in nearly every outdoor stadium Monday. But bettors beware: cold conditions are expected for many of the season openers.

Here's our weather report for Opening Day:

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-125, 8)

Site: Yankee Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to center at 18 mph.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-260, 7)

Site: Nationals Park

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right at 15 mph.

San Diego Padres at New York Mets (-140, 7.5)

Site: Citi Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right field at 18 mph.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-122, 7.5)

Site: PNC Park

Forecasts are calling for cold temperatures in the mid-30s and a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out to center at 15 mph.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-159, 6)

Site: Dodger Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-60’s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to right at 12 mph.

Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds (-114, 7.5)

Site: Great American Ballpark

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s and partly cloudy conditions. Winds will blow out to right at 12 mph.

Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins (+176, 7.5)

Site: Target Field

Forecasts are calling for frigid temperatures in the mid-20s and sunny skies. Winds will blow out to left at 14 mph.

Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox (-140, 7.5)

Site: U.S. Cellular Field

Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures in the high-20s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out to right at 14 mph.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-122, 7)

Site: Turner Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-60s and clear skies. Winds will blow in from left at 6 mph.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics (-106, 6.5)

Site: Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s and clear skies. Winds will blow out to right at 8 mph.

Games being played in venues with a retractable roof are not mentioned.

MLB

Monday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best and worst MLB Opening Day bets
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. But it doesn’t hurt to get off on the right foot. The 2013 MLB schedule opens Sunday/Monday and we take a look back over the past 10 seasons to see which clubs come out swing and which one are still on spring break come Opening Day and Opening Week.

Records over the past 10 MLB seasons.

Best Opening Day bets

Los Angeles Angels – 8-2
Pittsburgh Pirates – 7-3
Baltimore Orioles – 7-3
New York Mets – 7-3
Seattle Mariners – 7-3

Worst Opening Day bets

Cleveland Indians – 2-8
Oakland Athletics – 2-8
Washington Nationals – 3-7

Best Opening Day home bets

Baltimore Orioles – 6-1
Los Angeles Angels – 5-1

Best Opening Day road bets

Chicago Cubs – 5-2
Pittsburgh Pirates – 5-1

Best Opening Day over bets

New York Yankees – 9-1 over/under
Cleveland Indians – 7-2-1 over/under
Milwaukee Brewers – 7-2-1 over/under

Best Opening Day under bets

Los Angeles Angels – 2-7-1 over/under
Texas Rangers – 2-6-2 over/under
Kansas City Royals – 4-6 over/under

Best Opening Day home over bets

Arizona Diamondbacks – 5-1 over/under
Miami Marlins – 5-2 over/under

Best Opening Day home under bets

Los Angeles Angels – 0-5-1over/under
Kansas City Royals – 2-4 over/under

Best Opening Day away over bets

New York Yankees – 6-0 over/under
Milwaukee Brewers – 5-1 over/under

Best Opening Day away under bets

Texas Rangers – 1-4 over/under
Oakland Athletics - 0-3 over/under

MLB

Monday, April 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MLB's hottest and coldest bets in Opening Week
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Baseball is back, whether you’re ready or not. If you’ve been busy betting the NCAA tournament or capping the playoff pushes in the NBA and NHL, let us lend a hand and get you up to speed.

Here are three teams that tend to start the season hot and three others who drag their feet in the opening games of the schedule.

Record over the past 10 MLB seasons.

Hot starters

Toronto Blue Jays (35-23 in Opening Week)

Opening Week opponents: vs. Cleveland, vs. Boston

The Blue Jays always come out with a head of steam but fizzle as the schedule goes on. Last season, Toronto went 6-4 in its first two series of the season. This year, a reloaded roster and stacked pitching staff has the Jays among the World Series faves but could there be a jelling process for this new-look club?

Los Angeles Dodgers (34-26 in Opening Week)

Opening Week opponents: vs. San Francisco, vs. Pittsburgh

The Dodgers were on fire to start the 2012 season and jumped up the World Series futures board thanks to a 16-7 record in April, including a 6-1 mark in their first two series. Los Angeles reached deep into its pockets this offseason and loaded up on talent. Much like Toronto, L.A. could need some time to come together.

St. Louis Cardinals (32-24 in Opening Week)

Opening Week opponents: at Arizona, at San Francisco

The Cardinals are known more for their late-season heroics than their April success. However, St. Louis got off to a strong start in 2012, winning five of its first seven and let everyone know it would be alright without Albert Pujols.


Cold starters

Philadelphia Phillies (21-32 in Opening Week)

Opening Week opponents: at Atlanta, vs. Kansas City

Believe it or not, one of the best baseball teams over the past 10 seasons has also been one of its slowest starters. The Phillies split their first six games of the 2012 season and if Roy Halladay is suffering from a dead arm, things may go the same this spring.

Boston Red Sox (24-33 in Opening Week)

Opening Week opponents: at New York, at Toronto

There were teams with worse records during opening week than the Red Sox, but who the hell is going to bet on the Astros? Boston was the most costly team in baseball last season, burning 36.85 units, and a 1-5 start to the schedule set the tone for a dismal year for BoSox backers.

Cleveland Indians (23-31 in Opening Week)

Opening Week opponents: at Toronto, at Tampa Bay

The Tribe aren’t surprising anyone falling under this category. Cleveland is not only among the slowest starters – going 1-4 in its first two series last year - but is the worst Opening Day bet in the bigs at 2-8 over the past 10 seasons. But there is a catch. The Indians added some interesting players to the mix this offseason and are the “sexy” season win totals over pick (77.5) among Las Vegas wiseguys.

Monday, April 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Boston - 1:05 PM ET NY Yankees -110 500
NY Yankees - Under 8 500

Miami - 1:05 PM ET Miami +232 500
Washington - Over 7 500

San Diego - 1:10 PM ET NY Mets -136 500
NY Mets - Under 7.5 500

Chi. Cubs - 1:35 PM ET Chi. Cubs +111 500
Pittsburgh - Over 7 500

Colorado - 2:10 PM ET Milwaukee -148 500
Milwaukee - Under 7.5 500

Kansas City - 4:10 PM ET Kansas City +129 500 POD # 1
Chi. White Sox - Over 7.5 500

LA Angels - 4:10 PM ET Cincinnati -108 500
Cincinnati - Under 7.5 500

Detroit - 4:10 PM ET Detroit -193 500
Minnesota - Under 7.5 500 POD # 2

San Francisco - 4:10 PM ET LA Dodgers -150 500
LA Dodgers -

March's MLB Preseason Daily Picks as monitored by wagerline:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

03/29/13 8-_5-_1 61.54% +_1375 Detail
03/28/13 5-_5-_1 50.00% +_140 Detail
03/27/13 6-_5-_0 54.55% +_340 Detail
03/26/13 7-_6-_1 53.85% +_85 Detail
03/25/13 1-_1-_0 50.00% 0 Detail
03/24/13 7-_5-_0 58.33% +_815 Detail
03/23/13 5-_6-_0 45.45% -_575 Detail
03/22/13 4-_7-_1 36.36% -_1705 Detail
03/21/13 6-_5-_1 54.55% +_85 Detail
03/20/13 5-_3-_0 62.50% +_930 Detail
03/19/13 8-_4-_0 66.67% +_2010 Detail
03/18/13 1-_1-_0 50.00% 0 Detail
03/17/13 4-_5-_1 44.44% -_915 Detail
03/16/13 6-_2-_0 75.00% +_2310 Detail
03/15/13 4-_5-_1 44.44% -_510 Detail
03/13/13 6-_4-_0 60.00% +_890 Detail
03/12/13 3-_6-_0 33.33% -_1800 Detail
03/11/13 6-_4-_1 60.00% +_875 Detail
03/10/13 9-_3-_0 75.00% +_2885 Detail
03/09/13 4-_8-_0 33.33% -_2195 Detail
03/08/13 6-_1-_0 85.71% +_2640 Detail
03/07/13 8-_2-_0 80.00% +_3045 Detail
03/06/13 4-_3-_0 57.14% +_410 Detail
03/05/13 3-_4-_1 42.86% -_615 Detail
03/03/13 5-_7-_0 41.67% -_1115 Detail
03/02/13 5-_6-_1 45.45% -_815 Detail
03/01/13 4-_7-_1 36.36% -_1825 Detail

Totals 140-_120-_11 53.85% +6765

MLB Evening Games:


Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Atlanta -119 500
Atlanta - Under 7 500

Seattle - 10:05 PM ET Seattle -102 500
Oakland - Over 6.5 500

St. Louis - 10:10 PM ET St. Louis +101 500
Arizona - Under 8.5 500

Tuesday's Early Game:

Tuesday, April 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Baltimore - 3:10 PM ET Baltimore +151 500 POD # 1

Tampa Bay - Under 7 500

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Clayton Kershaw is first pitcher to hit a home run and pitch shutout on Opening Day since Hall of Famer Bob Lemon did it for the '53 Indians.

-- Bryce Harper HR'd twice, only runs Ricky Nolasco gave up, as Marlins lost 2-0 in Washington to Strasburg and the Nationals.

-- Tubby Smith looks like a lock for the Texas Tech job; man, he's been all over the place- Tulsa/Georgia/Kentucky/Minnesota, now Lubbock.

-- It is now illegal for minors to use a tanning bed in New Jersey.

-- AT&T commercials with guy in the suit and the little kids are excellent; the ones with Bird-Magic-Bill Russell-Kareem aren't bad either.

-- 12 days ago, I couldn't have picked Andy Enfield out of a lineup; now it looks like he's the new hoop coach at USC. Timing is everything in life.


*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but........

13) There is a College Basketball Hall of Fame in Kansas City, but not sure what geniuses decide who gets in. No Rick Pitino, no Jerry Tarkanian, but Norm Stewart and Joe B. Hall are in. Rollie Massimino? Please.........

12) 14 of 30 major league baseball teams have payrolls of $100M+.

11) Oakland Raiders traded for QB Matt Flynn, will deal Carson Palmer to the Cardinals. Raiders seriously need some contunity one of these years; seems like they either have a new coach or QB every year.

10) Carl Crawford is wearing #25 for the Dodgers, same number Tommy John wore for LA. Crawford is recovering from Tommy John surgery- he had two hits, scored a run in his Dodger debut Monday.

9) Playing back-to-back in the NHL can be draining; so far this season:
-- Road teams who played at home night before: 14-29
-- Teams on road for second consecutive night: 30-44
-- Teams at home for second consecutive night: 20-9
-- Home teams who played on road night before: 17-23

8) I once dated a woman who tried to kill a spider by spraying hairspray on it; not only did the spider live, its hair looked tremendous.

7) Louisville has two national titles in basketball; both times, Indiana won the national championship the next season.

6) Michigan-Syracuse is the first-ever Final Four game with two 4-seeds meeting. Since 1987, #4 seeds are 2-9 SU in Final Four games, with last win by Arizona in '97. This year's meeting will make 4-seeds 3-10- Michigan is a 2-point favorite over the Orangemen in Saturday's nightcap.

5) Mets' 1B Ike Davis complained to a sportswriter about having to shell out $1,400 for six tickets to the Mets' opener. Davis made $507,000 LY; how does a regular guy who makes $60,000 take his family to a game?

4) The whole Ben Howland/Steve Alford at UCLA thing is fascinating; you look at Alford's 5-7 record in NCAA games and that includes two losses in first round as a 3-seed, to Harvard this year, to Northwestern State in 2006, when Alford was coaching Iowa. Thats not good.

UCLA fired Steve Lavin after he made five Sweet 16's in seven years; what exactly do they want? Its almost like the John Wooden era is an anchor on the current Bruin regime, no matter who is in charge.

3) Americans won the first 14 PGA tournaments this year, which is kind of unusual. We'll see if that holds up at The Masters next week.

2) In 106 years of competition, 32 different schools have been members of the Missouri Valley Conference, at one time or another; with Creighton on its way to the Big East, the MVC will be adding anothrr school, so that will be a 33rd league member. Pretty good basketball league, too, as Wichita State is showing this month.

1) Could someone please explain to me why the two baseball teams in New York played their season openers at the same time, eight miles apart?
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MLB
Dunkel

St. Louis at Arizona
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's loss to the Diamondbacks and build on their 9-4 record in Jaime Garcia's last 13 starts in Game 2 of a series. St. Louis is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, APRIL 2

Game 951-952: Colorado at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.515; Milwaukee (Estrada) 15.417
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 16.225; Arizona (Cahill) 15.182
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Over

Game 955-956: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 18.207; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.913
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over

Game 957-958: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 15.822; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.036
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-170); Under

Game 959-960: Cleveland at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.552; Toronto (Dickey) 15.298
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over

Game 961-962: Texas at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 15.280; Houston (Harrell) 14.824
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 8
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-180); Under

Game 963-964: Seattle at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.264; Oakland (Parker) 15.969
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+120); Over
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MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, April 2

Hot pitchers
-- Estrada is 5-2, 2.77 in his last eight starts.
-- Cahill was 4-1, 2.36 in five starts last September. Garcia is 3-0, 2.49 in his last four starts.

-- Price is 4-0, 2.68 in his last five starts (2-0, 0.40 vs O's LY (3 starts)).
-- Dickey is 5-2, 2.62 in his last eight starts.
-- Darvish is 4-1, 2.32 in his last seven starts. Harrell was 1-2, 2.70 in his last three starts LY.
-- Iwakuma was 3-0, 2.37 in his last three starts LY (0-2, 7.36 vs A's).

Cold pitchers
-- de la Rosa was 0-2, 11.81 in three starts LY.
-- Bumgarner is 2-3, 6.57 in his last five starts (4-1, 2.34 last five vs LA). Ryu is making major debut here after pitching his whole career in Korea.

-- Hammel is 0-5, 5.22 in his last eight starts.
-- Masterson is 0-3, 6.11 in his last five starts (1-0, 0.60 vs Jays LY (2s)).
-- Parker is 2-2, 4.74 in his last four starts (1-1, 5.40 vs M's).

Totals
-- Over is 3-1-1 in Estrada's last five road starts.
-- Over is 7-4 in Garcia's last eleven starts.
-- Four of last five Bumgarner starts went over total.

-- Over is 4-1-1 in Price's last six starts.
-- 10 of Dickey's last 13 starts stayed under the total (NL starts).
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Harrell starts.
-- Five of last six Parker starts stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- Colo-Mil-- Over is 6-1-1 in Vanover's last eight games behind plate.
-- StL-Az-- Underdogs are 8-6 in Iassogna's last fourteen games.
-- SF-LA-- Over is 19-4-1 in Emmel's last 24 games behind plate.

-- Tex-Hst-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Nauert games.
-- Sea-A's-- Home teams won last five Hernandez games.
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MLB

Tuesday, April 2

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Trend Report
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3:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

7:07 PM
CLEVELAND vs. TORONTO
Cleveland is 7-17 SU in its last 24 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games
Toronto is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

8:05 PM
TEXAS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Texas

8:10 PM
COLORADO vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Colorado's last 10 games on the road
Colorado is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Colorado

9:40 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Arizona is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing St. Louis

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND
Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oakland's last 10 games

10:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. LA DODGERS
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Dodgers's last 6 games at home