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doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3891
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hoops mon
Monday's NBA Betting News and Notes
By Covers.com
Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards (+3, 181.5)
The Grizzlies have won three of their last four and 17 of 21 after a 110-106 win over Boston on Saturday. The Wizards have won five in a row at the Verizon Center and five of their last seven overall. The under is 6-1 in the Grizzlies’ last seven overall.
Miami Heat at Orlando Magic (+12.5, 198)
The Miami Heat have not lost since Feb. 1, but one of their closest calls during their spectacular 26-game winning streak was a one-point home victory over the Orlando Magic on March 6. Dwyane Wade (knee) sat out Sunday's mauling of Charlotte and is questionable. The injury-riddled Magic are mired in a six-game losing streak and have dropped 21 of 25 games since Miami last tasted defeat. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-7.5, 186.5)
Indiana has been without David West (back) for the last four games and Danny Granger (knee) for 10 straight, robbing the team of its two veteran leaders. The Hawks will try to take advantage of West’s absence with Al Horford and Josh Smith down low. Indiana took a 114-103 decision from the Hawks at home on Feb. 5. Atlanta had taken four straight meetings before the loss on Feb. 5, including the first two this season. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Hornets (+7, 202)
While their position near the bottom of the Western Conference standings implies one thing, the Hornets are not an easy out right now. They have won two in a row and are a respectable 11-8 at home in 2013 after solid wins over Boston and Memphis. The Nuggets have matched a franchise record with 15 straight wins. Guard Ty Lawson (heel) has missed two straight games but did practice Sunday and is listed as probable for this one. He had 21 points and 13 assists in Denver's 113-98 win over New Orleans in the previous meeting Feb. 1. The over is 8-1-1 in the Nuggets’ last 10 road games.
Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-7, 192.5)
Philadelphia halted a 15-game road losing streak with a 117-103 victory in Sacramento on Sunday night. It was the Sixers' first win away from home since New Year's Day. Utah has lost four straight overall and 12 of 15 after completing a three-game winless trek through Texas with a 113-108 defeat in Dallas on Sunday night. The Jazz have won six consecutive home games against Philadelphia and the home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings overall.
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-1, 204)
Golden State is clinging to a half-game lead over the Rockets for the No. 6 spot but appears to have dodged a bullet when Curry downplayed a right ankle sprain that forced him out in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s 101-92 win over Washington. Curry is expected to suit up vs. the Lakers. Los Angeles has dropped back-to-back games to two of the worst teams in the league but has taken six straight in the series, including a 118-115 overtime victory at Golden State on Dec. 22. The over is 5-0 in the Lakers’ last five games following a loss.
Lakers at Warriors: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (-1.5, 207)
The Los Angeles Lakers did not fare so well when they attempted to work Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol back into the rotation on Friday. With two more days of practice under their belts, the Lakers will try to have a better showing when they visit the surging Golden State Warriors on Monday. The Warriors are one of the teams the Lakers are trying to track down in the Western Conference, though holding off the Utah Jazz is of greater importance.
Gasol returned from a 20-game absence on Friday but struggled to get back into a rhythm in 20 minutes while his teammates let a late lead slip away against the lowly Washington Wizards. Golden State got to face that same Wizards team on Saturday and won with ease as Stephen Curry stayed hot from beyond the arc and David Lee recorded his customary double-double. The Lakers are 2 1/2 games behind Golden State, with the Houston Rockets sitting in between the two. The No. 6 spot means avoiding San Antonio and Oklahoma City in the first round of the playoffs, though the rest of the teams at the top could be just as tough.
ABOUT THE LAKERS (36-34): Los Angeles has dropped back-to-back games to two of the worst teams in the league and drew harsh criticism after Friday’s loss from coach Mike D’Antoni, who said, “I can’t explain it, but every time we get up by 16, it’s like ‘Well we’re good and we don’t have to play hard,’ and we start messing with the game…(when) you start messing with the basketball gods, they will get you. If we don’t change that, we obviously won’t make the playoffs.” Bryant, who had missed the previous two games with a sprained ankle and the flu, came up short on a tying 3-point attempt at the buzzer and echoed his coach. “It’s a disturbing loss, and we’re upset about it,” Bryant said. “Our defensive intensity slipped a great deal in the second half, and they took advantage of it.” The Lakers are kicking off a four-game road trip at Golden State.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (40-31): Golden State is clinging to a half-game lead over the Rockets for the No. 6 spot but appears to have dodged a bullet when Curry downplayed a right ankle sprain that forced him out in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s 101-92 win over Washington. The star guard has dealt with ankle problems for the last few years but told reporters, “I’m fine,” and had the X-rays come back negative. Curry has been on fire lately, going 21-of-38 from 3-point range in the last four games and averaging 29.5 points in that span. The Warriors have won three of their last four with Curry handling the scoring load and Andrew Bogut, Harrison Barnes and even Lee forming a strong defensive front line. Lee, who has always been known more as an offensive force, has posted four straight double-doubles.
TRENDS:
* Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss.
* Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last six Monday games.
* Over is 5-0 in Lakers’ last five games following a loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Warriors’ last seven vs. Western Conference foes.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Lakers F Antawn Jamison suffered a torn ligament in his right wrist on Friday but is expected to play on Monday.
2. Los Angeles has taken six straight in the series, including a 118-115 overtime victory at Golden State on Dec. 22. Bryant scored 34 points in the win.
3. Curry has struggled to 19 points on 35.9 percent shooting in the two meetings with Los Angeles this season
Hot Teams
-- Miami won its last 26 games (10-2 last 12 AF).
-- Hawks won five of their last seven games (6-3 last nine AU).
-- Pacers won three of last four games (3-1 last four HF).
-- Grizzlies won three of last four games, but lost last three road games (6-1 last seven AU).
-- Washington won five of its last seven games (8-1 last nine HU).
-- Nuggets won their last fifteen games (5-2-1 last eight AF).
-- Hornets won three of last four home games (3-1 last four HU).
-- Warriors won five of last seven games (won three of last four home).
Cold Teams
-- Orlando lost last six games (4-7 last 11 HU).
-- 76ers lost 15 of their last 16 road games (6-5 last 11 AU).
-- Utah lost its last four games, by 7-7-7-5 points (3-1 last four HF).
-- Lakers lost three of last five games (3-4 last seven road games).
Totals
-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Indiana games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Memphis games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Denver games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in Philly's last eight road games.
-- Five of last seven Laker games stayed under the total.
Back-to-backs
-- Miami is 3-5 vs spread last eight times they played night before.
-- Atlanta is 6-3 vs spread if it won the night before.
-- 76ers covered four of last five games if they played night before.
-- Utah covered three of last four if it played night before.
Armadillosports.com
Hoop Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins
VegasInsider.com
ATS TREND OF THE DAY:
The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since January 18, 2008 as a favorite when they scored at least 25 more points in their previous game than in the game before.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Heat are 0-11 OU (-13.6 ppg) since June 04, 2005 with a total of at least 180 after a double digit home win in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds.
PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Hawks are 0-12 OU (-10.8 ppg) since February 20, 2007 on the road as a dog after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Josh Smith was not the Hawks’ high scorer.
CHOICE TREND:
The Pacers are 11-0-1 ATS (10.3 ppg) since November 12, 2008 as a favorite after winning the previous matchup at home in which Roy Hibbert took fewer than 10 shots.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
The Lakers are 8-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since November 23, 2012 with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Kobe Bryant had at least 5 turnovers.
The Magic are 9-0 OU (17.9 ppg) since March 26, 2005 after a loss at home in which Jameer Nelson played more than 40 minutes.
7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
Memphis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Washington
Washington is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Memphis
7:00 PM
MIAMI vs. ORLANDO
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games on the road
Orlando is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
7:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. INDIANA
Atlanta is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Indiana is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games
8:00 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Denver
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
9:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Utah
Philadelphia is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Utah
Utah is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
10:30 PM
LA LAKERS vs. GOLDEN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Miami at Orlando
Miami: 16-7 ATS off BB home games
Orlando: 3-13 ATS at home off an ATS win
Atlanta at Indiana
Atlanta: 11-3 Under playing their second road game in two days
Indiana: 11-3 ATS off a division game
Memphis at Washington
Memphis: 14-6 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Washington: 12-3 Under after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Denver at New Orleans
Denver: 11-3 ATS off BB home games
New Orleans: 1-5 ATS off 3+ home games
Philadelphia at Utah
Philadelphia: 2-10 ATS away with a total of 190 to 199.5 points
Utah: 12-3 ATS at home after playing as a road underdog
LA Lakers at Golden State
LA Lakers: 3-11 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
Golden State: 17-7 Over after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Paul Leiner
100* Robert Morris +8.5
50* Wright State Pk
Jimmy Boyd
3* Indiana Pacers -7.5
3* Philadelphia 76ers +7.5
3* Oral Roberts -4
Asian Executive
$1 Million Check CBI Lock of the Year
Wright State -1
* Wright St is 5-0 ATS L5 and win this by +10
$250,000 West Coast Over the Total Blowout Lock of the Month
Lakers / Warriors 204.5
* Final Score: Golden St 125 - LA Lakers 93
$100,000 Confidential Insider Source
Western Michigian / Wyoming Over 127.5
* Final Score: W. Michigian 75 - Wyoming 70
Jack Jones
20* Utah Jazz -7
15* Orlando Magic +13
15* New Orleans Hornets +7
20* BYU -7
15* Louisiana Tech +7.5
Chris Jordan
1000* Robert Morris +8.5
Platinum Plays
500K NIT Lock
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +8
Best Bets
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles -4
Richmond Spiders +1
BYU Cougars -7
George Mason Patriots -6
PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK
LA Lakers Pk
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03-25-13 10:41 PM |
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doubled1511
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 3891
|
Dave Price
New Orleans Hornets +7
The Nuggets are shooting for a franchise record 16th straight win tonight and are being overvalued as a result. While you can bet Denver wants the franchise record, you can also bet New Orleans will be motivated because it was embarrassed in the season's first two meetings, which both took place in Denver. The Hornets are an awesome 32-17 ATS the last two seasons when playing with double revenge. They have lost by only 3.2 points on average in these spots. The Hornets will be lacking no confidence as they check in off back-to-back wins over playoff teams Boston and Memphis. Plus, they defeated Denver the last time it visited. New Orleans is also a sweet 44-27 ATS the last two seasons when catching 3.5 to 9.5 points. It has lost by just 2.5 points on average in this situation. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Hawks/Pacers UNDER 186.5
I look for a low-scoring, defensive battle tonight in this Eastern Conference rivalry between the Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers. Playing at home, Indiana will control the tempo in this one.
That's good news for the UNDER considering the Pacers score 94.4 points/game while allowing 89.5 points/game this season. They combine with their opponents to average just 183.9 points/game on the year.
Indiana has really played in some low-scoring games of late due to the loss of second-leading scorer David West (back), who averages 17.3 points/game. West has missed the past four games, and he remains doubtful to return tonight.
The UNDER is 3-0 in Indiana's last three games overall with a 95-73 home victory over Orlando for 168 combined points, a 102-78 home win over Milwaukee for 180 combined points, and an 84-87 loss at Chicago for 171 combined points.
This play falls into a system that is 34-11 (75.6%) to the UNDER over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (ATLANTA) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
Atlanta is 14-3 to the UNDER as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. The Hawks are 48-24 to the UNDER when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days since 1996. The UNDER is 36-16 in Hawks last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.
Andre Gomes
Denver Nuggets -7
Projected Line: Denver by 10 points
The big news for this game is that Greivis Vasquez won't play tonight due to an ankle injury and that's a massive blow for the Hornets. Without him, Denver won't have problems in forcing turnovers, an area where the Hornets have been struggling lately even with Vasquez playing, as they have committed 20, 14, 20 and 17 turnovers on their last four games! New Orleans is coming from two big wins over Boston and Memphis, however they only won these two games due to a massive edges on boards, as they grabbed 60.5% and 58.6% of the rebounds in those two games! The Hornets had great spots for those games as they were on a home span, while Boston was coming from a brutal game against Miami and had no legs to play on the second half, where they scored just 12+19 points. The same happened with Memphis, who had played a brutal home game against Oklahoma City, where they only won it on overtime.
Matchup wise, the Nuggets have great news for tonight. New Orleans's transition defense is terrible with 1.27 PPP allowed since the All Star break. Even two teams who aren't known for scoring in transition, Boston and Memphis, scored 14 and 16 fast break points against them! The Hornets's lack of muscle down low has been also exposed lately by their opponents, something that will definitely happen tonight once again against Denver. The Hornets's pick and roll ball handler defense has been also horrible and Ty Lawson has a great spot tonight to have a big game. Basically Denver has an excellent spot to have a huge offensive game tonight.
On the other side, the Hornets's offense will struggle without their starting PG, who will miss tonight his first game this season! New Orleans's offense is dependent from Vasquez's pick and rolls and they will struggle without him on this area, besides the high number of turnovers that they'll certainly commit tonight. Of course the Hornets will attack the rim looking for offensive rebounds and Ryan Anderson might have a good 3pts shooting game, but Denver will be much more stable tonight than they were on their last two games, as they will have Ty Lawson and Wilson Chandler back. Denver won the first two games of the season against New Orleans by double digits, while scoring 25 and 21 fast break points plus 58 and 62 points in the paint. I expect something similar to happen tonight and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Mercer +7 over BYU
Many of you have probably don’t know much about the Mercer Bears. After all, they play in the Atlantic Sun conference that gets less television exposure in the U.S than the annual Hot-Dog eating contest. That said, here’s what we do know. Mercer finished first in that conference ahead of the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles. The same Eagles that just advanced to the Sweet Sixteen by beating Georgetown and San Diego State, both by double digits. The Bears also won their opening NIT game with an impressive 75-67 win over Tennessee. Mercer has now won 12 of 14 with only two losses over that span occurring against FGCU. These two played one common opponent this season, the Seminoles of Florida State and Mercer beat FSU 61-56 while BYU lost to Florida State 88-70.
BYU had no impressive wins the entire season. Every quality team they played they were usually buried by big margins and they also lost to the slightly above average teams like Baylor, San Diego and San Francisco. The Cougars won their opening round NIT game against Washington but overall the school has dropped five of its last nine games. One cannot dismiss what the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles have accomplished. Having a better record in the same Conference than the Eagles and being inspired by its success, one has to give the Mercer Bears a legit chance of advancing in the NIT and at the very least, staying well within this range.
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03-26-13 12:50 AM |
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