Cincy -1.5

I will have more on this game later but this one is a lock down pick. Get it now if you can at 1.5 it may change.

Quick look
Cincy has one of the best O Lines in football. Lots of holes to run in the SD D and passing will not be a problem. SD is banged up at LB and in the secondary.

Cincy has one of the best D lines in football going against one of the worst O lines in football. Big trouble here. Rivers is going to be on his back most of the day. He will be hard pressed to do anything on offense.

The line is off. The play is a good one. I will give many more reasons and expand on the one I have given but these do not come along that often and I have been eyeing it all week.

Could not agree more. The Bengals are putting things together at the right time. There offence is getting much better. Mr. Turner is done as the head coach, Rivers has no time to throw. Rivers has happy feet from being nock around all season. Load UP ON THIS ONE !

You've been solid with your "shed bets". Gonna tail here. I got at my book at -1. Lets go!!!

Colin Cowherd top pick

Colin Cowherd came out with his blazing 5 picks before noon, you wouldn't be tailing him? Just wondering because he has been on fire this year. You plays seem to be matching up with his...just wondering. BOL

I have no idea who he is.

Aj Green vs Quentin Jammer
Should be the setup most of the time. Jammer is just too slow to keep up with Green. Add in the very questionable safeties on SD and this is a big mismatch in Cincys favor.

Chargers are hurting badly in the secondary and have a hurt ILB. Jonas Mouton is making his first nfl start at ILB. SS Atari Bigby is out for the season now. There D was not all that good before. Losing 2 starters does not help at all.


The Bengals have some of the best lineman in football right now. On the OL they have Whitworth, Boling and Zeitler. These 3 rank in the top 10 in lineman this year when pass blocking. Faine is also an excellent center. Against this weak SD D (only 22 sacks this season), the run should be fine and Dalton should have all day to pick apart a weak secondary.

As for Cincy D LINE vs SD O LINE, that is a slam dunk matchup Cincy's way. They are 2nd in the AFC in sacks with 35 going against a OL that has given up 32 sacks, second to last in the AFC. Geno Atkins should have a field day. He may be the best Tackle in football right now. Rivers is going to have pressure all day and he does not do well with it.

The play is solid. I have looked at it every way I can and cannot find a reason to think SD has a shot here.

Thanks for the update! Already locked them in at -1

I cannot back the chargers after last weeks 4th and 97 conversion.


The herd with Collin Coward is an annoying sports talk Radio guy that can be heard on Espn radio. I don't listen to him. I listen to mike and mike in the morning.

Anyway I'll ride shotgun here

Yeah, I googled him. I was surprised I never heard of him but no cable/no radio and I do not use espn online that often. He has been hot this year but picking that many games a week has to be a recipe for longer term failure.

I read there stuff for info. I usually go through all the games and try to find one or two where things stick out. Info on cincy/sd game.

A.J. Green vs. Chargers Secondary

When it comes to pass catchers in Cincinnati, it’s A.J. Green then everyone else. The standout second-year receiver has played more than twice the snaps of any Bengals receiver and is tied for the third-highest ranking among wide receivers. He is third in deep passing catch rate, hauling in 39.3 percent of deep passes attempted. Possibly the most important overall stat for a receiver is Yards per Route Run, in which Green ranks sixth with 2.5. It’s safe to say he can do it all. Andrew Hawkins has been the next best receiver in Cincy, with most of his snaps coming in the slot. With tight end Jermaine Gresham (-8.3) having a down year, Green will have to continue to carry the passing game.

The Bengals will look to attack a weakness of the Chargers, the pass defense. Antoine Cason has allowed five touchdowns while only picking off two passes. Quarterbacks have a QB rating of 103.4 when targeting him. Quentin Jammer has had a solid year, but has been flagged six times — more than any other Charger defender. If Eric Weddle, the team’s highest-rated player in coverage, is unable to play because of a concussion suffered in Week 12, San Diego could be in for a long day trying to contain the Bengals’ star wideout.

Chargers Defensive Line vs. Bengals Offensive Line

The Chargers had to be worried about the production of last year’s first-round pick Corey Liuget, who was our 28th-ranked 3-4 defensive end. However, he has improved dramatically in his second season. Liuget comes in fifth among 3-4 DEs with an 8.7 percent stop percentage and has totaled 19 QB pressures. On the other side, Vaughn Martin has been the Bolts worst player on defense. In 250 pass rush attempts, Martin has totaled only nine pressures. Veteran Aubrayo Franklin has been a great addition, leading all defensive tackles (who have played at least 25 percent of snaps) with a run stop percentage of 12.3.

San Diego will have a tough time getting through the tough Bengals offensive line. Four of the five starters have earned at least a +12.4 grade. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth has managed a 97.2 Pass Blocking Efficiency, good for fourth among offensive tackles. Cincinnati also has two of the top five guards in pass block efficiency. Clint Boling and Kevin Zeitler both come in at 98.3. Center Jeff Faine also has the same rating of 98.3. As good as they have been in pass protection, they have been good blocking for the run game as well. They help make life for Andy Dalton and the ground game easier.

Bengals Defensive Line vs. Chargers Offensive Line

The Bengals’ defensive line contains one of the most dominant players in the NFL, Geno Atkins. His rating of +49.1 is almost twice as high as the next best defensive tackle. He ranks third in run stop percentage and first in pass rush productivity among defensive tackles. Good luck, San Diego. Teamed with defensive ends Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap, who are both having good seasons, the Bengals will look to be in the Chargers backfield all game long.

The play of the Chargers offensive line has been, well, offensive. Michael Harris comes in last in our signature stat for Pass Rush Productivity, allowing 47 pressures on 283 snaps. Jeromey Clary has not been much better, allowing 34 pressures on 413 snaps. As a team, the Chargers trail only the Cardinals with a pass block efficiency of 72.9. If they want to get more consistent play from Philip Rivers, they will need to keep him protected.

Those guys take notes on all players in football. OL/DL/etc.

As you can see the Cincy OL is amazing by these numbers. I think that is one of the major keys here since SD has a weak defense. Almost guarantees there will be running room and time to throw.

Then, this horrible SD OL vs a very solid Cincy DL. That spells lots of trouble. Sacks, pressures, tough to run.

These are the things I always look for. Big advantage on the lines equals victory in the game. This one is a rather large mismatch and that is not even considering the injuries to SD's secondary.

I look at rotoworld and see what kind of advantages I can find there for the game.

More of the same:
"Spearheaded by Defensive Player of the Year sleeper DT Geno Atkins (9 sacks) and contract-year RE Michael Johnson (8 sacks), the Bengals' defensive line is playing as well as any group in football right now. Cincinnati's front four destroyed Oakland's pass game in Week 12 by heaping constant pressure on Carson Palmer, both up the middle and off the edge. No AFC team has fielded a more disappointing offensive line than San Diego this season, and the mismatch in the trenches is a major concern for Philip Rivers' Week 13 outlook."

"The Chargers lost a pair of key defenders in Week 12, as Pro Bowl candidate ILB Donald Butler and SS Atari Bigby suffered significant groin injuries that will shelve them against the Bengals. They'll be replaced, respectively, by Jonas Mouton and Brandon Taylor, both of whom have never played in an NFL game. San Diego has quietly fielded a top-ten defense this season, but it won't be at full strength on Sunday"

Key injuries always help.

Then the mismatch with AJ GREEN.

"Green moves around a lot, but he'll square off with Chargers LCB Quentin Jammer on most of Sunday's snaps. Slow of foot with little to no recovery speed, Jammer can neutralize guys like Eric Decker and Tampa's Mike Williams. Not A.J. Green. This is another mismatch in Cincy's favor"

Just showing what tools I use. Then I go to many score predictors, people and computers, and make sure the team I like has an advantage on a large majority of them.

Key is, the team has to have almost everything in it's favor on paper. They need to have some leeway in the spread and their advantages for turnovers, mistakes and things that just happen.

Cincy fits the bill from A-Z here. The line is so very good. I see a domination, Vegas sees -1 on the road here.

thanx for the info

Thanks, I hope the play does this Den justice.

Go Bengals!

Cin +1 now... pretty big line movement

I saw that, was it at all books? I noticed it at betonline but not at wsex. I did not look anywhere else.

Ugh It closed at pickem on my site. Lets go Bengals!