The sports betting marketplace was a flurry of activity Monday morning when it was confirmed that San Francisco 49ers quarterback Alex Smith did not get clearance from doctors to play in Monday Night’s battle with the Chicago Bears because of the concussion he suffered last week.

Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler had already been ruled out because of a concussion. That means we have TWO backup quarterbacks on the field in what was already one of the most anticipated games of the NFL weekend.

TONIGHT’S QUARTERBACKS

Chicago Bears: Jason Campbell

San Francisco 49ers: Colin Kaepernick

Due to investments already made through the week, sharps had to buy off earlier positions as they incorporated this new information.

THIS WEEK’S TIMELINE

*Sharps had already bet San Francisco -5, -5.5, and -6 when the matchup was expected to be Smith vs. Campbell. Some continued at -6, though much of the weekend line move to -6.5 and -7 came from the public. Squares love betting TV favorites. Squares love betting against backup quarterbacks. And, what would normally be a large amount of money coming in from Bears backers was much less likely to show up without Jay Cutler. The line had reached San Francisco -7 in many spots before news of Smith’s scratch was made public.

*Sharps who got the early word (and there had to be several because the line started plummeting this morning before public announcements) bet Chicago +7 immediately and anything else they could get before the big adjustment came from sportsbooks. That leaves some sharps with middles on SF -5, or -5.5 and Chicago +7 or +6.5. Others came over the top(ie bought off of their SF bets completely) on Chicago at +7 because it offered so much value if Kaepernick was the starter.

*Some sharps who didn’t have early positions also came in this morning on Chicago at whatever they could get before the big adjustment.

*An initial adjustment from oddsmakers down to San Francisco -5 still wasn’t enough. As sharps bet Chicago +5, and Chicago +4.5. Note that the public doesn’t bet early in the day (and this was very early in terms of offshore and Las Vegas). The early activity involved sharps, and sportsbooks defending against sharps. Even after a move to four, there was still some sharp sentiment on Chicago, which is why you see San Francisco -3.5 in many places as this goes to press.

It remains to be seen how the rest of the day will play out. Sharps will fade any public moves from this point forward. Were the squares to back Chicago (after having missed the value numbers) in a way that takes the line all the way down to the key number of three, you’re likely to see sharps buy back some SF to set up middles. If squares decide they still want the home favorite on TV and bet the Niners, sharps would likely come in and bet more on the Bears after an upward line move.

Now…we also need to talk about the total!

The Over/Under was up around 37 or 37.5 in the morning. Sharps POUNDED the Under on the Smith news in emphatic fashion. We’re now seeing 34.5 or 35 in most stores as we go to press…on the assumption that both backup quarterbacks are going to have a lot of trouble succeeding against two great defenses. You don’t often see totals this low in the NFL when bad weather isn’t involved. We’re hearing that some sharps are still considering additional Under bets simply because the potential for a defensive struggle is so great.
GLTA tonight! Im on da Bears

Thanks man, great Info...and good luck. Like SF , but may just watch this one and enjoy the Defensive battle... 20-9 F SF wins is my prediction...

.. Will be looking for Thursdays report. keep em coming... Thanks.