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jacksonjohn


Registered: Apr 2007
Posts: 133

No mas

What is the difference between draw no bet and Regulation time only? Seems both cancel any OT or SO

Personally, after losing another tonight, I will be playing 60 minutes only. We don't win our share of OT and SO and I'm sick of it. You are too good to keep giving back those hard earned profits.

Old Post 12-03-11 05:19 AM
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dld3151
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2842

Overtime and shootout records for the season

I was curious, so I did some checking. I keep a record of every play I make, so looking to see which of Sawyer's games have gone beyond regulation was pretty easy. Anyway, here are the won-lost records (monthly and overall) for overtime games and shootouts from the start of this season through Dec. 2.

OCTOBER
Overtimes: 2-3
Shootouts: 6-5
MONTH TOTAL: 8-8

NOVEMBER
Overtimes: 2-6
Shootouts: 4-6
MONTH TOTAL: 6-12

DECEMBER
Overtimes: 0-0
Shootouts: 0-2
MONTH TOTAL: 0-2

FOR THE SEASON
Overtimes: 4-9 (31%)
Shootouts: 10-13 (43%)
SEASON TOTAL: 14-22 (39%)

A few observations:

The last two shootouts (Dec. 1 and 2) have been losers, but before that shootouts were 10-11 for the season. That's about what I'd expect because that's in line with the Iron Dogs' overall winning percentage dating back to last season.

The worst stretch for shootouts was a 2-6 run from Nov. 3-16 -- and that contributed to the slow start in November. Overtime games are 4-9 overall, but I'd look for them to eventually even out.

I think what's struck many of us recently is that from Nov. 14-Dec. 2, overtime games are 0-4 and shootouts are 2-4 -- a total of 2-8. While it's frustrating, such short-term downturns tend to be pretty insignificant in the long run.

Hope this is of interest.

Old Post 12-03-11 10:50 AM
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dld3151
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2842

Final thought on overtimes and shootouts

Here's another way to look at the overall effect of overtimes and shootouts this season. Let's assume the average price for winning plays on these games has been +132 (that's in keeping with the overall average this season). Multiplying the 14 wins by 1.32 gives us the equivalent of 18.48 wins. Then, subtract the 22 losses. That leaves a net of -3.52 units. Enough worry about? Not really. That can be made up in one night.

Old Post 12-03-11 11:03 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

0-2, -2 Units

NYI +180 LOST (5-4, OT)
NJ +105 LOST (4-2)




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 12-03-11 02:18 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

12/3 Iron Dogs



NJ +105
NYR +100
NYI +145
FLA +170


All lines are available at 5Dimes. Good luck!

Old Post 12-03-11 03:26 PM
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Duby99
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Registered: Jun 2008
Posts: 2141

Let's get them today!!

Old Post 12-03-11 04:11 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

3-1, +3.15 Units

NJ +105 LOST
NYR +100 WIN
NYI +145 WIN
FLA +170 WIN

Old Post 12-04-11 11:43 AM
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Dre2109


Registered: Jan 2011
Posts: 18

Great night, Sawyer! I played them 1X2 and made about 5.3 units. Gonna continue to do that for at least the rest of December and see where I'm at.

Old Post 12-04-11 11:43 AM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Dr. Dre,

1x2 odds are great. Florida was +260, NYR was +160 and NYI was +228.

Great value on these definetely. What about Reverse Puck line -1.5? Would hit in two plays last night, OMG!

Old Post 12-04-11 01:57 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Got 2 Iron Dog Plays for Sunday. Coming up..




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 12-04-11 02:26 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Iron Dogs 12/4



Minnesota +110
Calgary +178


You may want to pick Calgary later in order to take advantage of odds since everybody will be on Vancouver today..

Old Post 12-04-11 02:59 PM
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Duby99
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Registered: Jun 2008
Posts: 2141

Great night buddy!

Old Post 12-04-11 03:13 PM
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dld3151
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2842

Calgary already +205 @ 5dimes. BOL tonight. BTW, I think the Dogs started a year ago today.

Old Post 12-04-11 03:48 PM
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Pagodo


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 56

Missed the last two days of wagering and the small profit, tonight's card looking good for at least a 1-1 Sunday night, great stuff as always, Sawyer, thanks!

Old Post 12-04-11 05:01 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141



Amazing value on Calgary definetely. It doesn't matter if they win or lose today. These kind of bets are EV+ over the long haul.

Here's a parlay for fun, if you're looking for action..

DETROIT ML -133
MINNESOTA ML +110
CALGARY +1.5 PL -137


Odds: +524 (x6,24)

Old Post 12-04-11 07:30 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Dog, Over and The Puck Line

This parlay also lookin' good..

MINNESOTA +110
DETROIT VS COLORADO OVER 5½ -105
CALGARY FLAMES +1.5 PL -137


Odds: +611

Good luck!

PS: Not adding to record, just a parlay for fun. You can throw 50-100$ for fun/action.

Old Post 12-04-11 09:54 PM
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Sawyer
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Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

1-1, +0.1 Units

Minnesota +110 Win
Calgary +178 Lost




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 12-05-11 12:48 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Record Update

0-1, -1.00 Units
0-2, -2.00 Units
3-1, +3.15 Units
1-1, +0.10 Units

Iron Dogs 2011-2012 Season Record: 67-73, +16.20 Units
December '11 Record: 4-5, +0.25 Units
November '11 Record: 32-37, +5.92 Units
October '11 Record: 31-31, +10.05 Units




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 12-05-11 12:51 PM
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Buccan


Registered: Nov 2010
Posts: 52

Sawyer, sorry for talk about NBA, but... do you think you will be have NBA totals year? i need to think some things about bank admin.

Old Post 12-05-11 12:56 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Buccan

I'm thinking about sticking with NHL Overs&Underdogs.

I prefer in-play wagering for NBA, so don't want to make any predictions. Not to mention, NBA is harder to beat then NHL. Hockey is more profitable imo. 2 years ago, I hit %61.5 in totals (133-83) but last year my win rate was just %53-54 ATS. So I like stick with hockey.

Old Post 12-05-11 01:13 PM
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