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Pagodo


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 56

Love the Kings tonight!

JD, 22 (out of 76) games went into overtime.

Old Post 11-08-11 12:14 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Bushay

I'm posting my picks after I placed my bet. I'm not posting any ghost lines.

Closing line was +108 but I picked this bet at +130.

Many friends of mine told me they were able to pick at +127 after I posted.

I'm sharing my picks here and you're complaining because your line was off by 3cents.

Old Post 11-08-11 12:24 AM
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JDilla2380


Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 132

Thanks Pagodo.

I think I might start playing the Doublechance on these. Maybe cut back on some of the ups and downs.

Old Post 11-08-11 12:24 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

I have a strong feeling about OT in LA Kings game too. Kings win 3-2, GL!




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 11-08-11 12:26 AM
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Badger24
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jul 2006
Posts: 1166

Bodog has Kings +125 at

5:35 PM Central

Old Post 11-08-11 12:35 AM
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Bushay


Registered: Jan 2004
Posts: 8

I've just started looking in on your plays of late. And just about every single line you've posted seems to be the best available from opening numbers to close. And looking back at the line history's these lines were only available the day before when the number first opened. But you posted the played the following day. Seems like a awful curious coincidence to me.

Old Post 11-08-11 02:32 AM
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Hal Coldvice
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2010
Posts: 1592

Why so curious Bushleague?

Old Post 11-08-11 02:42 AM
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BIG BAD BILL
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 8033

Bushay

That is not correct. The other night 3 of the 5 lines moved in our favor,i have followed all his plays and lines move in both directions all the time. I feel if you just follow you will be quite happy with what ends up in your pocket.




2008-2018
2691-2398
53%

You Miss 100% of the Shots You Never Take.

Old Post 11-08-11 02:48 AM
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nghia1973


Registered: Apr 2008
Posts: 47

Bushay

It go both way...right now(6:23 pm pacific) at Pinny the Kings is +132, so stop bitching about the line...

Old Post 11-08-11 03:24 AM
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Zac
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 15654

Good luck, buddy.

I just played the Kings at +130.

I don't understand the flap.

Sometimes you just have to consider the source and ignore the remarks.

Old Post 11-08-11 03:37 AM
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scout1
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2009
Posts: 4956

it's amazing someone has been here almost 8 years and only has 5 post and 3 are to ***** about lines. If In 8 years you have not contributed anything to make people money, you should shut up and tail or just log off.
I have not gotten any of the lines posted, but still showing a profit. Thats not bad for just clicking and reading a post.

All that said, just keep posting those winners.

And the pics too!

Old Post 11-08-11 03:56 AM
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Bushay


Registered: Jan 2004
Posts: 8

Cool story bro.

Old Post 11-08-11 04:11 AM
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SunRunner


Registered: Sep 2011
Posts: 5

There will be an award and prize given to the person who can whine and ***** about lines the most over the course of the season.

Keep it up...

And stay tuned...

Old Post 11-08-11 05:24 AM
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Bushay


Registered: Jan 2004
Posts: 8

Hey. You only have 3 posts here. Anything you say can't be significant.
Shame on you.

Old Post 11-08-11 05:27 AM
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Mozart


Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 26

Dog PL +1.5 results

I love Sawyer's Iron Dogs, have no complaint at all and am very grateful for Sawyer's sharing his Iron Dog picks.

I follow his Iron Dogs and play them hard when my hand-drawn charts show that the dogs would likely dominate on any particular day of Iron Dog picks.

It would take too much space to describe my hand-drawn charts that has three over-laying game-result factors that is now clearly showing some interesting patterns of the ebb and flow of the ML dogs/favorites' tug-o-war in their taking turns dominating one day, the losing out another day, then swinging right back in a day or two the other way.

I've noticed that, in the last 10 days of NHL action (from Nov 7 to Oct 29), the ML Iron Dogs have won SU 7 times and lost SU 14 times, so it's been a bit of a painful losing trend losing 66% of the time; however, thanks to the plus units, the losses are not so steep, yet the units are in the negative during that time.

During the same time, the Iron Dog PL +1.5 have won 14 times, lost 6 times, so they are up plus units, but maybe not a lot, given the steep juice of the PL +1.5 dogs.

And all the dog PL +1.5 results from Oct 21 to Nov 4 in all the games have been astonishing:

.................W----L

Oct 21.........3----1

Oct 22........10---4

Oct 23........1----0

Oct 24........2----1

Oct 25........7----2

Oct 26........2----1

Oct 27........7----3 (4/1 I.D. PL +1.5 won)

Oct 28........3----1 (One I.D. won)

Oct 29........8----5 (2/2 I.D.)

Oct 30........4----0 (Pass day for I.D.)

Oct 31........3----0 (One I.D. won)

Nov 1..........2----3 (1/1 I.D. won)

Nov 2..........3----0 (Pass day for I.D.)

Nov 3..........9----1 (5/0 I.D. PL +1.5 won)

Nov 4...........5----1 (One I.D. won)


Total...........68----22


So all dog PL +1.5 won 75% of the time and lost 25% of the time. Wow. Only one negative day during that 15-day stretch.

So if one played them SU, one would be up plus units, perhaps.

If one did RR bets on them, one would be up plus units, perhaps.

SU parlays on all the dogs in a given day probably would not be in profit.

On days of many games with the pendulum favoring the dogs, playing SU two-teamer dogs across the board may be up plus units.

The first 10 days of the season showed a similar pattern of dog PL +1.5 dominance.

A 3-day stretch from Oct 18 to 20 had the favorites dominating with wins of 2 or more in most games.

Then the PL +1.5 dog reasserted themselves and dominated in that stretch that I tallied above.

In the last three days, Nov 5, 6 and 7, the favorites dominated again with the 7th having 100% wins of scores of 2 or more in each game, albeit just two games.

Based on the patterns that I see in the charts so far, the swing from favorites to dogs (and visa-versa) is very sudden, yet the favorites have tended to dominate only for three days at a time with the PL +1.5 dogs dominating the rest of the time.

So I think that, perhaps, starting tomorrow, Nov 8, the PL +1.5 dogs may be good to play for 10 days to two weeks.

Just start doing it until the favorites dominate two days in a row, or more, with mostly 2-goal wins or more.

I'd do:

1) RR PL +1.5 dogs

2) Single bets of PL +1.5 dogs

3) SU paired-up PL +1.5 dogs, starting with the ones that have the closest odds for higher numbers of close games.

I'll take a look at the PL +1.5 dogs and try to find a pattern of which dogs tend to win with what kinds of paired-up odds, defensive strength, or some other relevant factor... got any ideas of what I ought to look for?

RR bets on these kinds of dogs may be the best way to go, along with SU, paired-up parlays for these kinds of high-juice PL +1.5 dogs.

There seem to be enough profitable days to keep one in the money with slow, but steady growth of one's PL +1.5 dog bankroll, occasionally to be augmented with nice bursts of units gained from those 100%-win days.

Old Post 11-08-11 08:41 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

0-1, -100



LA Kings Lost 2-4

Old Post 11-08-11 11:52 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Large card today. As always, (or usually) will post today's plays between 8-9 AM, US Time, Eastern.

Good luck!

PS: Thanks for the info&data Mozart.

Old Post 11-08-11 11:57 AM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Iron Dogs 11/8



DALLAS +135
FLORIDA +115

May add more plays later..GL!




Iron Dogs 2010-2011 Regular Season Record: 144-149, x46.58 Units (1 Unit Each Play)
Statfox Denham's Best Bets Thread 2011: 32-14, %70
NCAAB *10 Totals 2009-2010: 25-16, %60.97
NBA Totals 2010: 133-83 ATS, %61.57

Old Post 11-08-11 01:35 PM
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gregcrtwrght


Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 496

Thanks Sawyer

Read your post about 7:00 am CST and my lines, which by the way are always less, were already +105 FLA and +120 DAL. Playing them anyway as I always do. Just saw there was some stupid line complaints on here yesterday. Keep up the good work. Will always be tailing.

Old Post 11-08-11 02:13 PM
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Sawyer
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2008
Posts: 7141

Thank you Greg, GL Tonight!

Florida still +115 @ TheGreek by the way. Dallas +130 available at Bookmaker.

Old Post 11-08-11 02:16 PM
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