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JDilla2380
Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 132
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Thanks Pagodo.
I think I might start playing the Doublechance on these. Maybe cut back on some of the ups and downs.
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11-08-11 12:24 AM |
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Mozart
Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 26
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Dog PL +1.5 results
I love Sawyer's Iron Dogs, have no complaint at all and am very grateful for Sawyer's sharing his Iron Dog picks.
I follow his Iron Dogs and play them hard when my hand-drawn charts show that the dogs would likely dominate on any particular day of Iron Dog picks.
It would take too much space to describe my hand-drawn charts that has three over-laying game-result factors that is now clearly showing some interesting patterns of the ebb and flow of the ML dogs/favorites' tug-o-war in their taking turns dominating one day, the losing out another day, then swinging right back in a day or two the other way.
I've noticed that, in the last 10 days of NHL action (from Nov 7 to Oct 29), the ML Iron Dogs have won SU 7 times and lost SU 14 times, so it's been a bit of a painful losing trend losing 66% of the time; however, thanks to the plus units, the losses are not so steep, yet the units are in the negative during that time.
During the same time, the Iron Dog PL +1.5 have won 14 times, lost 6 times, so they are up plus units, but maybe not a lot, given the steep juice of the PL +1.5 dogs.
And all the dog PL +1.5 results from Oct 21 to Nov 4 in all the games have been astonishing:
.................W----L
Oct 21.........3----1
Oct 22........10---4
Oct 23........1----0
Oct 24........2----1
Oct 25........7----2
Oct 26........2----1
Oct 27........7----3 (4/1 I.D. PL +1.5 won)
Oct 28........3----1 (One I.D. won)
Oct 29........8----5 (2/2 I.D.)
Oct 30........4----0 (Pass day for I.D.)
Oct 31........3----0 (One I.D. won)
Nov 1..........2----3 (1/1 I.D. won)
Nov 2..........3----0 (Pass day for I.D.)
Nov 3..........9----1 (5/0 I.D. PL +1.5 won)
Nov 4...........5----1 (One I.D. won)
Total...........68----22
So all dog PL +1.5 won 75% of the time and lost 25% of the time. Wow. Only one negative day during that 15-day stretch.
So if one played them SU, one would be up plus units, perhaps.
If one did RR bets on them, one would be up plus units, perhaps.
SU parlays on all the dogs in a given day probably would not be in profit.
On days of many games with the pendulum favoring the dogs, playing SU two-teamer dogs across the board may be up plus units.
The first 10 days of the season showed a similar pattern of dog PL +1.5 dominance.
A 3-day stretch from Oct 18 to 20 had the favorites dominating with wins of 2 or more in most games.
Then the PL +1.5 dog reasserted themselves and dominated in that stretch that I tallied above.
In the last three days, Nov 5, 6 and 7, the favorites dominated again with the 7th having 100% wins of scores of 2 or more in each game, albeit just two games.
Based on the patterns that I see in the charts so far, the swing from favorites to dogs (and visa-versa) is very sudden, yet the favorites have tended to dominate only for three days at a time with the PL +1.5 dogs dominating the rest of the time.
So I think that, perhaps, starting tomorrow, Nov 8, the PL +1.5 dogs may be good to play for 10 days to two weeks.
Just start doing it until the favorites dominate two days in a row, or more, with mostly 2-goal wins or more.
I'd do:
1) RR PL +1.5 dogs
2) Single bets of PL +1.5 dogs
3) SU paired-up PL +1.5 dogs, starting with the ones that have the closest odds for higher numbers of close games.
I'll take a look at the PL +1.5 dogs and try to find a pattern of which dogs tend to win with what kinds of paired-up odds, defensive strength, or some other relevant factor... got any ideas of what I ought to look for?
RR bets on these kinds of dogs may be the best way to go, along with SU, paired-up parlays for these kinds of high-juice PL +1.5 dogs.
There seem to be enough profitable days to keep one in the money with slow, but steady growth of one's PL +1.5 dog bankroll, occasionally to be augmented with nice bursts of units gained from those 100%-win days.
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11-08-11 08:41 AM |
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