Sitting here waching the races at Churchille and the track is a mess. 70% chance of rain on Saturday, so I could vary my pick a tad. With the heavy chalk on the far outside, would find it hard to believe Big Brown is going to be able to overcome that post. The horse and jock will be catching a lot of mud getting over to the rail to save ground. Unless the horse can get to the lead by the first turn,(which I doubt) it will be a tough trip. This horse has some class, but the early speed of 7-8 others on the inside, it should kill his chances. Add in the fact the pony is lightly raced and doesn't have a mudder in the bloodline.
He does have the top two beyers and if he gets decent position by the second turn...look out.

Here's who I'm looking at and value is key...

COURT VISION 20-1
Has won on this track and is off two rough trips. Should get the distance.

VISIONAIRE 20-1
Another long shot who was 10 wide in his last and still showed some guts. Won in the slop in NY @ 1 1/16 miles.

SMOOTH AIR 20-1
Ran second to the ML chalk in last, plus it was a weak field IMO. Yet the pony is two for two on an off track and even though it's looking at the first race outside of Fla. the trainer's ponies travel pretty well.



Horse to Beat...

PYRO 6-1
Last was a disaster, but was run on the fake dirt. with that said, this horse came back after a simiular trip last October. With three losses to War Pass, how can you not like the horse?

Well, the Jockey is questionable as far as talent. The post will challange the Jock and the he will win or lose the race.

Runs well on an off track and mom and dad did well at the distance.

When the dust settles, I think your looking at 4/1, again depending on the track condition.

So as it stands as of now...

Pyro to Win

Ex box

Pryo/

COURT VISION
VISIONAIRE
SMOOTH AIR

Tri box

COURT VISION
VISIONAIRE
SMOOTH AIR
PYRO
BIG BROWN

Just a suggestion...this is a big square betting day. So, if you can get WPS pool amounts, look at Show pools for some value plays.

Ten years ago I'm at a OTB on Derby day and I over hear this guy at the window ask the teller, "Now if my horse wins, do I get the odds my horse is at now or do I get the posted odds when the race is over?"

Like I said.

Peace and good luck







Colonel John, Pyro and Adriano

I noted these three...

Colonel John, Pyro and Adriano

Friend of mine from Vegas, who is a very good pony caper gave me these FWIW.

Great information!

Churchill Downs 7th

1-2-9 EX BOX

I show a scratch bro.

Bromoe, Are your Derby picks still the same? I appreciate your knowledge on the horses. Thanks and G.L.