Back to what made last year a success. Only adhering to the guidelines...no variations .Strictly bidness from here on out. I know I stated that we would be betting to win 300. each but there are too many plays this weekend and My bankroll has dropped because I decided to act ignorant and strayed away from the guidelines. Here are the winners:

Philly (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Fri)
Cincy (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Fri)
Kansas City (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Thurs)
Colorado (Bet to win 200.00 ab only)(Fri)
LA Dodgers (Bet to win 100.00 ab only)(Thurs)

These will get us back on track.

LAD is a qualifier so they will be played but at a smaller level.

Florida #23 at Philly#3
Pit #19 at Cin #5
Sea#27 at KC #4
CHC #24 at Colorado #1
STL #21 at LAD #10

LAD is a qualifier BUT at a smaller level. They are the weakest of the qualifiers.

Besides all of our home teams qualifying to begin with .....All of the opponents this weekend have mediocre at best road records against mostly middle to bottom tier teams making the plays look more attractive.

Playing KC too. Not playing LAD though. Back tomorrow with Friday series plays.

Edit: I'm also playing TB to win one at home vs. MIN. As bad as TB has been, the Twins have been shaky and I really don't see them sweeping on the road against an AL East team... (note: 4 game series, but I will only chase for 3).

I'm also considering playing OAK at home vs. DET

Thurs:
KC
TB
OAK?

Going into today:

Series 12-2
A Bets: 8-6
B Bets: 4-1
C Bets: 0-0

+20.8u , 30.5%ROI

Normalized to winning one unit per series:
+6.55u, 26.5%ROI

You will probably get a win there but Tampa just scares me a little at home. It always has seemed that they are stronger on the road then at home .

Chris,

I love it, man! Thanks for the nudge on Colorado - I didn't originally plan on playing them, but definitely will now. I am playing Atlanta, though. They were money for us at home last season.

The White Sox didn't get swept at home last season, but I don't feel good about that series after the nerve-racking Oakland visit.

I feel fortunate to be up on the season - thankfully the Twins helped me dig out of a lot of the Red Sox losses. Boston has put it to us. I was 100% behind the Red Sox and didn't think twice about playing them.

They will probably bounce back vs. Toronto, but I can't get on them until they right the ship.

Thanks again, Chris!

IN:
"Philly (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Fri)"

What does "ab" stand for? I'll undoubtedly feel dumb when you tell me.

Highbeams, A and B stand for Games 1 and 2

Matt - I am on KC and Tampa also.

Chris - Here is Tampa's home series record (to win one game in a series) the past few years according to my stats:
25-1, 25-1, 24-2, 24-2, 21-5, 25-1(this was last year). I think that are pretty good at home. I know that they are a different team this year but they have to win one game at home this year!

So right.........Atlanta at home has been golden! Lets do this!

So right.........Atlanta at home has been golden! Lets do this!

Kansas City (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Thurs)
A.bet winner (Won $200.00)

LA Dodgers (Bet to win 100.00 ab only)(Thurs)
A.bet -Loser (Lost $106.00)
B.bet -pending

Colorado (Bet to win 200.00 ab only)(Fri)
A.bet- pending

Philly (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Fri)
A.bet -pending

Cincy (Bet to win 200.00 ab only) (Fri)
A.bet -pending

Great job on Tampa Bay! Dont know why I had it stuck in my head that they were not good at home in years past . I know they were 0-5 at home this year but those losses were to good road teams. Nice A.bet winning call though!

52-1 in home series over the past two years. This 52-1 includes the one series this year. Their one series loss was to LA Angels last year. St Louis is getting pretty dang hot though which concerns me.. They've scored 46 runs in the last 5 games and are 4-1 in those 5

Those crazy Royals get the weekend off to a good start.

KC (Thur -120 ML *Won*) vs. Sea

PHI (Fri RL +100) vs. Fla
CIN (Fri RL +120) vs. Pit
COL (Fri RL +135) vs. Chc

Series: 1-0 +1.0

YTD (4/14): 11-0-3 +2.7

Nice work on the Royals play. Have to admit that seems a bit scary.

Chris, your PM inbox is full.

Hal, the Royals aren't great, but they are better than the M's on the road.

KC - win
TB - win
OAK - L, game 2 today

I really want to stress that everyone be careful with big favorites, especially Philly this year. If you are playing a chase on the moneyline and you lose 3 in a row, it could be a huge loss. Say you get Lee, Doc, etc in there - you are possibly looking at -200 moneylines or greater. Keep in mind that books will adjust for this type of chase and you may even see lines around -300 if Philly is on a loss streak and Lee/Doc are pitching against a bad team.

Last year Philly got swept at home by Houston in 4 straight games late in the year. I wasn't playing them huge but I had the foresight to jump off them 2 games in.

There was also that dreaded series last season where Texas got swept at home by Baltimore. The lines were -122, -200, -171. This was a -13.25 unit loss. So be careful! For reasons like this I will try to stick to runlines to reduce the risk.

You will have some losses with this method, and they will be anywhere from 7-15 units. So you need to keep your bets reasonable. I try to keep A bets in the neighborhood of 3%-5% of the bankroll, depending on how good I feel about the series. Again, even with losses last season I was around 28% ROI.

Tonight

OAK (B Bet)
CIN
COL
ATL
PHI?

Florida is a borderline dog play for me tonight, depending on the line. If not I will probably play Philly RL.

matty, I really think this part of your last message can't be emphasized enough:

"I really want to stress that everyone be careful with big favorites, especially Philly this year. If you are playing a chase on the moneyline and you lose 3 in a row, it could be a huge loss. Say you get Lee, Doc, etc in there - you are possibly looking at -200 moneylines or greater. Keep in mind that books will adjust for this type of chase and you may even see lines around -300 if Philly is on a loss streak and Lee/Doc are pitching against a bad team."

I've been thinking about that, especially with the last Philly series. They are going to have some high ML's regardless of their win/loss streak. Which just means its gonna be harder and harder to play Philly for an entire series.

Do you guys only play RLs for the first game of the series? And if that's the case, are you considering this when selecting your series? Say, if a team might be a huge favorite in the B game which would force a RL play, might you just drop that series?

Thanks for everyone's work!

Marlins are a dog play for me, so I'm off Philly.

Hal, I don't have a ton of time right now, but it was more of a "feel" thing for me as to play ML/RL. For example, I always played ML last year with the Giants. NYY did great with the RL though.

As you get later in the season, guys like Cliff Lee and Halladay will be greater than -200 favs. Which makes the chasing hard to stomach. I may keep away from them more this season.

edit: JustDave just gave me an idea of fading the big fav chases yesterday, and I'll have to think about it.

I've thought about playing the RL to start a series regardless but haven't yet determined if that would produce a positive effect.

My system is very simplistic. If the ML is -150 or less, play it. If it's more, play the RL.

I'm picking teams that are superior based on some stats I like to use. I wish I could only bet the ML, but the numbers just get too big and like Matty mentioned, will really burn you on occasion.

Parlay Wager - 1 Parlay of 5 Teams
* For ticket number(s) go to Open Bets

MLB[956] CIN REDS
B ARROYO -R/C MORTON-R -1½+110

MLB[958] ATL BRAVES
D LOWE-R/D CARRASCO -1½+115

MLB[962] COL ROCKIES
J CHACIN -R/M GARZA -R -159

MLB[971] TOR BLUE JAYS
C BUCHHOLZ-R/B CECIL -L +158

MLB[976] KC ROYALS
L HOCHEVAR -R/E BEDARD-L -1½+160

1 Parlay of 5 Teams X $30 = $30 $1450.00