det
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ytd: 14-13, +5.2 units

lean: cle, sea

GL

Damn...The only afternoon game is postponed...now what am I going to do at work?

sea
cle
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fla
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really like fla

azmat... could you post your system..sounds like you have a great one.

no true mechanical system is used, but the theory thats used is below, posted from last yr --


Over the past few weeks, I’ve received several emails asking the theory behind my method for selecting mlb underdogs daily. I hope to summarize the basic concepts in this post. The system is based on the law of equilibrium – a team rising above average (overvalued) will regress and will be followed by a team that is below average (undervalued). The overall trend of every team is normally towards average. Determining how far one team is above or below average is the key to the method. Two key factors now: 1. The odds are always based on public perception of a given team due to their latest performances. 2. Money lines are always based on a starting pitcher – starting pitching is only 50% of the game (much lower than what the public perceives it to be). Starting pitchers’ values are usually based on their last three starts – throw a complete game, strikeout 10, etc and the starter is suddenly 50 cents more expensive on the moneyline. It doesn’t mean that the underdog is going to win, but it only means that if that pitcher loses, it will cost you a lot more. Having said that, the methods I use picks games most times that my brains says no way, but I have to actually force myself to place the wagers knowing that it works in the long run. Again, there is no subjectivity in the plays. Every time I think I know what is going to happen, it usually doesn’t. My brain, like the public, likes to pick favorites. This is basically a value investment system. I’m essentially buying a baseball team that is undervalued or going against one that is overvalued (normally going against public perception). I never look at starting pitchers and usually end up going against the good ones. I hope this answers some of the questions. If you should have any more, ask away. I hope to continue to hit b/w 46%-50% for the rest of the year in hopes of gaining +30 to +60 units for the mlb season. I’ve learned a lot from this forum and wish to contribute in anyway possible.

"Having said that, the methods I use picks games most times that my brains says no way, but I have to actually force myself to place the wagers knowing that it works in the long run."

Great stuff, I tend to analyze by the use of Bell Curves in my real job; so love the use of under/over valued with a regress to the mean.

You are the man. Thanx for your work.
Have a great year.

I put an extra unit on Fla so very nice night with a chance to add to winnings with cleveland....thanks for the hard work

Hello Mat,

The above was pretty well stated.......thank you for all the work in getting the winners out. Best of everything to you throughout the season.

Sincerely..............Rockin' Jerilee