Some posters are hoping that the Monday Night factor helps the Bears.

I don't think the Bears have won a Monday night game since Ditka.

Even with the better Ditka teams, the Bears usually had bad Monday Night games.

I believe that the last time the Bears and Packers faced each other was on a rainy Halloween night about five years ago or so.

They had plenty of reason to be psyched for that game as they were retiring players' numbers at half-time and had a national audience....They were blown out by Green Bay.

I also believe that the last time the Bears played coming off of a bye-week they lost.

"Trends are just one piece of ammo in the chamber"

A great man once said that.
Our opinions are based on much more than just trends. Chicago has a lot to play for tonight, especially Kordell. He will have a breakthrough tonight, and the Bears will try to establish their running game. They may not win the game outright, but they should keep it very close.
Green Bay is an average football team this year with a struggling defense. We don't feel they should be favored by more than a field goal.

Just sharing opinions guys. Trying to provide the forum with information. Many have said they can't find any trends favoring Chicago. We have found them.

"Bears are 7-0 ATS since 1981 as a home dog off back-to-back SU&ATS losses"
This trend tells us that no matter how bad Chicago is, this team and city have a lot of pride, and in the last 22 years, when the public has said they have no chance of winning, they have come through.

"Packers are 0-7 ATS since 1995 when facing a winless opponent after Week 2 of the season."
This trend tells us that through Green Bay's glorious run in recent years, they have overlooked inferior opponents. Much like they did last week in Arizona.

Everything points to Greenbay. That is why this game feels like a corrupt one. The world is betting on Greenbay....Either the books get creamed or the Bears win. I like the points and the money line here. I already have them teased to Nebraska and Utah State so they better at least cover the 10 points to break me even

Greek,

When the White Sox opened their new stadium (While they were a good team) they lost

When the Champion Bulls opened in the United Center they lost.

New stadiums in Chicago tend to indicate losses.

BEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRSSS
SSSSSSSSSSSSZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

I'm loyal to the team I have my scratch on!

Tomorrow........

Minnnnnnnnnnnnyyyyyy(small)

Just because it's the only game in town tonight, nobody HAS to bet this game. In my opinion, unless you have a strong reason to bet the game (no matter how you arrived at it), there's no reason to bet. I already bet the game because it was part of three I took due to the net rushing differential. If it wins, I hit a three-teamer, and three straight bets for those plays. If it loses, I lose the par, and go 2-1 in the NFL this weekend.

Good luck whoever you go with.

GL with your play. I LIKE Chicago too, but if I played every game I liked...

The Costanza Theory has been working for me, so I stick with it...

Fellas,

I don't mean to pick on any one book, but Bo Dog stands out as probably the one with the least advantage for the player. They spend A LOT in advertising, in case you couldn't tell LOL. And they offer very little to the player. Rob doesn't even have next week's NFL lines out yet. The Pros, and those who shop for the best lines, avoid BoDog. Rob was even called out by some Pro Capper during the Cappers Festival for offering no player advantage. Don't remember what was said, but Rob said, during his question and answer session, that they could talk about this later (off mike). I think its safe to assume that Bodog caters more to the uninformed (public if you will).

BoDog has GB -5. He was the first to move.

If BoDog caters to the public, then why would BoDog have GB -5? Because that means they're catering to the public picking CHICAGO, getting 5 points

Did any of you actually WATCH the GB game?? I didn't, but I bet Arizona and listened on the radio. I can't tell you how many times the announcers said the Packers could barely make it off the field they were so tired from the heat. That's why Arizona won the game, and they barely won it at that.

I can't believe some of you are taking Chicago, but hey.......we'll see I guess who's right in the end, in about 6 hours

Here's a little 101, sorry to the rest.

BoDog has moved the line to -5, because his handle (wager money) has more 1-way on GB. He's doing what he can to balance that.

I'll tell you right here and now, the Pros tonight are not hanging out in Favre's corner. The heat last week had very little to do with GB's loss IMO.

Injuries are overrated, let me add weather to that.

BetterLuck to those that work hard.

Step back non believers and wait for the sound of the gun.

You watched the 49ers dismantle the Bears.

You watched the Vikings handle the Bears

Tonight you get to to watch Kordell run wild. I know the Bears record, I know the Bears were bad last year and made no improvements for this year.

Why do you think they gave this bad team an ESPN evening game.......and then a Monday night game ?? Take the Packers and at the end of the game Jamie Kennedy may come out and announce "You've Just Been Xed"
Bears +4 Be a Believer........

Here's why:
9/29/03 NFL Green Bay at Chicago--09:05 ET Green Bay-4

The Bears are coming off a bye week following their first 0-2 start since 2000, when they finished 5-11. Chicago head coach Dick Jauron, who is on the hot seat after his squad went 4-12 last season, has watched his team be outscored 73-20 in its first two contests. The Packers and head coach Mike Sherman enter this game stunned after falling to huge underdog Arizona, 20-13, in the desert heat for the first time ever last week. Green Bay is off to its worst start since 2000, when it began the year 1-2. Chicago leads the all-time series between these clubs, 84-75-6, but the Packers have won five straight meetings dating back to their first meeting in 2000. Green Bay swept the season series last year, including a 30-20 win at Lambeau Field in their last meeting. Favre beat the Bears for the 18th time in 22 tries. This game will mark the seventh time and second in two seasons that Chicago and Green Bay have met on Monday Night Football. The Packers earned their fourth consecutive win over the Bears on MNF in Champaign last season, moving their MNF record against them to 4-3. The Packers have won four straight MNF appearances to improve their all-time record to 20-18-1.

Favre hasn't been himself this season, throwing six interceptions compared to just four touchdown passes. The gun-slinger has completed nearly 62 percent of his passes en route to a sub-par 67.6 quarterback rating. Last week, Favre played pretty well, completing 23-of-33 passes for 245 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The Packers must find a way to establish the running game this week if they expect to have a chance to win. Chicago's defense has been poor against the run in its first two games, surrendering 364 yards on the ground. The Bears are dead last in the league in run defense, allowing 182 yards per contest. Linebackers have done their part, but the front four has struggled mightily. The Packers will finally have a full complement of receivers this week with Donald Driver (neck) and Robert Ferguson (knee) relatively healthy. Chicago's secondary hasn't exactly done its job this season, either, allowing 7.26 yards per attempt (12th-NFC). The Bears are allowing 221.5 passing yards per contest, but they have only faced 61 passing attempts due to their inability to stop the run. Opposing quarterbacks are posting an average quarterback rating of 100.6 against them. On the other hand, Kordell Stewart, is still getting comfortable with John Shoop's offensive system. The Bears, not known for their ability to pass the ball, are 15th in the NFC in pass offense (120 ypg). Chicago has a lackluster group of receivers led by veteran Marty Booker and Dez White. Chicago will need to dedicate itself to running the ball and keeping Favre off the field in this one. It hurts that top two linemen tackle Marc Colombo and guard Rex Tucker are out for the year. Meanwhile, the Packers have been pretty solid against the run this year, holding foes to 97 yards per game. Green Bay has owned the Bears as of late and after the excitement of the revamped Soldier Field wears off, this game should follow suit. Expect Favre to finally resemble himself and lead Green Bay to the win.

GLTA

Good analysis!

Heres a trend thats 12-0 for the bears. Underdog in Bears games after a bye week are 12-0. But I still like GB tonight.
My guess is they win by 3. So being from Wisconsin I will
probably tease the game.

Heard Brent Musberger on ESPN radio saying how much he likes the Packers tonight. Is he trying to suck the public in on GB?
Just wondering.

kordell.




pack will prevail.

Props to GamblingFool for the detailed analysis.

What we cannot cap for is abberancy. Abberancy is defined as... straying from the right or normal way. Abberancy is what makes the capper think or say "What the F_ _ _ !" on Monday nights. Many smart Cappers avoid the high profile games all together because of this. Sportsbooks bank on Monday night abberancy.

An example of Monday night abberancy is how well Quincy Carter performed against a dominating Giant's D. Another (same game), is that kick out of bounds with 9 seconds left. I can list many more that have affected the score and performance against the spread on Monday nights.

One would think that abberancies occur fairly evenly for both teams (public and non-public). This is not the case. The ball tends to bounce the way of the non-public team on Monday nights. I'm not sure how or why this happens.

The way I see it, Quincy Carter, the bye week, Soldier Field, and public money, 0-7 ATS, and 7-0 ATS STILL won't help Kordell and the Bears tonight. Because in the end, it's the Bears who actually have to play football tonight

Small Teaser Greenbay +3 Under 48.5
GLTA!

How many times have you laid points, and the dog jumps out on top due to a fumble or interception returned for a TD? In my case, it's been too many. But you can't worry about it. If you can't make a bet with confidence (no matter who you're picking), don't make the bet.

In my opinion, if the line is "4", they're pretty much saying theoretically, the Pack should win by a touchdown, even though "4" is one of the key numbers.

I prefer to call "public" money "uninformed" (statistically) money, hence the weird moves.