Holiday Bowl, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, CA (Grass)
Thursday, Dec. 28

Another live dog play. Aggies 9-3 SU and 8-3 ATS while Cal 9-3 SU and 5-6 ATS. First of all, I confess a negative bias to Cal Bears. They appear to me to be a whining, crybaby, dilettante team albeit talented. They had their chance to whip USC but couldn’t do it. Their fans and student body at Berkeley are a bunch of crybabies akin to Minnesota fans….always whining. And notice both CA and MN are blue states. Got to get that off my chest. Its a RED state vs. BLUE state game.

Texas A&M is my kind of “blue collar team”. Aggies lost 3 games by combined total of 6 points!!!! They beat Texas as a visiting team. Aggies are also one of those “Cardiac Kids” in that 8 of 11 games were not decided until last final minute and 7 of 8 Big 12 contests were not decided until closing minutes. It is not just luck but a strong determination that is part of this team’s makeup.

Cal is more impressive with their offense (more passing than running) than defense. But Aggies are a strong running team with a bruising 270 # running back (is this another Nasty Nate Ilaoa???). Aggies are very good at ball control and has the 3rd highest time of possession in NCAA at 33.29 vs. No. 1 Wisconsin 33.45 and No. 2 Michigan 33.44. This ball control will help them keep Cal offense on sidelines. Aggies also good at 25 rushing TD in the red zone which leads Big12 Conf. Their running back is 4th in rushing TD tied with Ray Rice of Rutgers. Their O-line has double tight ends w/pass catching ability. And their QB I feel is better than Cal’s Nate Longshoreman (sorry, had to mess w/that surname). QB McGee can both run and throw which makes him the greater threat at QB than the classic drop back passer Longshoreman.
If Texas A&M can demonstrate ability to run against this Cal D (which is stronger against the run), then combined with Texas A&M's ability to pass against the porous Cal secondary may result in a decisive victory rather than a slight upset.

Cal will have to be able to run in order to pass deep. But teams that have stopped them have taken away the deep pass and contained the run. Leaving Cal with short passes and without the big play. Their run attack suffered setback because their blocking runner sustained a broken arm in practice and doesn’t appear he will play.

Some additional facts compliments of Marc Lawrence College Bowl Stat Report:
Cal 3-9-1 ATS L13 games vs. fellow bowlers. Holiday Bowl favs are 0-8 ATS.
Dog in Aggie/Pac10 games is 5-0 ATS. Dog in Aggies Bowl games is 11-4 ATS. 7-3 ATS as bowl dogs. 5-1 ATS vs. fellow bowlers this season.

The overachiever is clearly Aggies and in fact, the better, tougher team may be the Aggies. Franchione has more experience than Telford. Franchione’s record 180-95-2. He is the 6th winningest active coach in NCAA football.

Hope the above info helps. Any other opinions welcomed. GL and a prosperous New Year to all.

All the A&M games this season have been very close. This game should come down to the final 2 minutes. Having the points on your side should give you a better chance to win. Its prolly 50-50 Straight up...

I really like A&M in this one. Played them +4 for 4 units and I also may put a small play on the money line.

Excellent writup, by the way.

You guys are closer to these teams and their conferences so your comments are encouraging.

Note that the public sportswriters tend to lean more to Cal Bears. Here are some other tidbits from researching these teams:
o One of the keys to whyTexas A&M has been successful this year vs. prior 2 yrs is the improvement in pass defense. Aggies were last in pass D to now 42nd in pass D. They have a new Def Coordinator that has also made the difference.
o HC Franchione is concerned about Cal's balance on offense and wants to prevent the big plays incl. kick off returns and long pass completions. I feel one of the best ways of offsetting that would be ball control and eat up the clock with time of possession. HC Franchione does not want this game to evolve into a "shootout" because he doesn't believe Aggies offensive output can match up with Cal's.
o Please note that Franchione was HC at TCU and coached LaDainian Tomlinson for 3 yrs there. LT made a visit to the Aggies today Dec. 27, to give the team encouragement and motivation.
o Aggies will control the clock if their stable O-line which has been largely intact the entire season can control Cal's D-line and the 3 running backs are again productive for Texas A&M: Mike Goodson, freshman speedster (HC Franchione says Goodson reminds him of another LT!!!!!), the 275 # Jorvorskie Lane, and the blocking back Chris Alexander 242# can pound the ball and move the chains against Cal run defense. IF they can run it, they got a good chance to win it. A&M also has a good pass receiving tight end (forgot his name).

o Cal is a dangerous team with Marshawn and the punt returner. This team staggers in last 3 games, failed to take the next step up which is to defeat USC and the QB can be rattled/inconsistent. Ayoob, the former QB might be put into the game to give a guy who can handle option plays.

I think this will be a close game, a battle of will power, and i give edge to Franchione's experience and the hard hat/blue collar Aggies who will need to resurrect "the Wreckin Crew" style of play in order to win it.

GL to all. Thanks again for sharing your comments. Much success to all during the bowl season and NFL playoffs.