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Murdock


Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 351

me too if its not too much trouble: jamiebinx@yahoo.com

Old Post 05-11-03 12:19 AM
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theqman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 3601

Hockey -try a search under "probability plays" or Jeffn86 and you will find it. But don't play it until you are comfortable, let's say when it's 120-9.

Old Post 05-11-03 12:26 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Q-man

You must be a youngster. I will wait. I do not have faith right now in a system put forth by guys who had trouble finding a winner less than a week ago. My true feelings are the wins become loses quickly. 120-9 is that what you said. Come on now, have you been gambling for 5 days. I will play against these plays. That is worth putting money in the bank for. The probablility of a BIG losing day or days is HUGE right now. The system is what 5 days old going on 6 or something like that? People have been trying to break the books for years and you think some system is going to do it overnight. You will be playing with your money quickly with that attitude. Systems very seldom end up working in the end. The best system I have ever seen is the star system and you have the nerve to say bet more on this other system that has been in around less than 1 week than a system that has proven itself and gives solid plays day after day. You cannot have been in the gambling biz for a very long time.

I want to make it clear that Jeff is cool. He is working on something that might work. Qman has lost it. He has brought this to me. I am just trying to give sound advice to anyone here who believes a system like this will continue winning. If it does like I said very good. The problem is people like Qman will continue to bet even when the system has its losing streak, which it will, and they will end up back to ground zero. I do not want people running around saying I am not helping. I am just trying to say give it some time and see how it does. The numbers are way too high. It is going to see a losing streak and very soon. Anyone in gambling knows this. To think you have cracked the nut in less than a week is a joke. Sorry for the negativity but qman is being way too arrogant. In gambling the one thing I have learned over the years is not to be that arrogant. It will always get you in trouble. Sorry to the guys who hate negative posts but this one was way overdue. Just compare his posts to mine or forget that spend your time picking winners.

Old Post 05-11-03 01:03 AM
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Breadman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 10993

Patience is a virtue. I could use some of yours BB. It's my biggest downfall (when it comes to action). There is one other gentleman in this forum that I feel carries the same impressive attribute but HE hasn't been posting much for a couple of months now. He is even laying in the weeds when moments on stage are perfect spots for him. I'm getting there. It's a marathon, not a race and all that sh*t.

Old Post 05-11-03 01:14 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Thanks Breadman

It is just because I am a gelding, LOL. I am really not good with patience but I have seen alot of people go down gambling and have learned it over time. Now I am still here after 10 years so I am doing something right. I have not bet yet in a few weeks. Waiting and watching. I know what my next bet will most likely be but it has not happened yet. I have 2 options and when one comes up it is go time. I wish you would have had that horse yesterday. I am glad you had the one later though. I did not cash on it. It paid higher than I had expected 12.80 to win. Unfortunately the 7 got second. I would have rather seen you win the money since I had nothing on the line.

Old Post 05-11-03 01:19 AM
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Breadman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 10993

I'll be inquiring in the future. Thanks for the info.

Old Post 05-11-03 01:38 AM
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theqman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 3601

Did I strike a nerve?

As far as experience goes, I am 38 and have been handicapping for 22 years. I had the nickname "The Bookie Man" back in High school. I don't know how long you have been doing it and really don't care but as for looking at my post and "comparing" them to yours, feel free and add up the winners in my column and the winners in yours and then see what you think.

It seems as if YOU are the one that keeps getting into shouting matches and not sound handicapping skills. If you are that frustrated and not going to play the games for another couple of months or so, then why "share your wisdom" with people here? We are players and not just watchers and modarators. When is the last time you gave any sound advice (winners) to anyone? As far as beating the book overnight, as you say, and coming up with a system that is fairly new, well, I have to tell you this. The systems have ALWAYS been there. They just have to be found. I guess Nicks system is too new (around 80 games) for you to, eh? Then why are so many people making a fortune?

I know it is spometimes hard to give people their props, but try it sometime and you might make some friends that someday could help even you, the ALL KNOWING ONE, make a little cash.

I guess the sooner you come across the StatFox Forum the more experienced you are, right, veteran? Any day, anytime, you want to "compare", I'm up for the challenge. Otherwise just post something helpful to the board or go to yahoo chat to spend your lesiure time.

Old Post 05-11-03 02:03 AM
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theqman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 3601

Sorry for some of the mispelled words but I am in a hurry to get back to what really matters and not childs play.

Old Post 05-11-03 02:05 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

Q man

You should read what I wrote before writing. Read it again and again so it sinks in. What I am trying to give to you is good handicapping advice. At least 50% of handcapping is mental. You seem to get angry way too easy. You have been trying to strike a nerve with me since your first post. All I have done is give sound statistical advice. I am all for Nicks star system. It has 80+ games over two seasons to go by. -200 teams on the ML are close to 90%. I have said that in my posts. The system you are acting like this about is on its 6th day. I will just say the proof is in the pudding and we will see what happens with this system. I put in my opinion that it needs more time to be statically valid. If you disagree that is fine. Keep betting. Once again I did not say anything about you until you starting flaming me for giving good honest advice. Read back how many times that I have said that I hope this system works out. You surely state your opinion everywhere you go. Why must others not state theirs? Mine is not really an opinion it is a stat. This is statfox, correct qman?? Stat Fox. All about stats. Stats say this method will not keep hitting at the numbers it is. That is all I am saying. All you have to do is keep picking winners and prove me wrong. Saying I am childish and comparing me to your wife is not doing that. I will be sure to tell you when I make my next bet. I will let you continue to post the record of yours or Jeff's system? Why do people always hate the truth? Stats do not lie. The stats say the system is on an overinflated run, picking too many games and will soon have a huge failure. That is just the way it is. Gambling so many years seems you would have learned this already. But in the end as I always say GOOD LUCK, I hope the system works out.

Old Post 05-11-03 03:04 AM
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theqman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 3601

You say:There is a magic number out there that will give it 95-98% statistical significance. I am guessing it is around 200 games.
(Star system is 86 games old and 3 months into it.)

You say:I am skeptical because this is very new and has very little picks.
(56 games in about a week)

You say:I do not have faith right now in a system put forth by guys who had trouble finding a winner less than a week ago.
(Questioning the man's abilities who founded it and picking yet another argument with him)

You say:I will play against these plays.
(That's sound handicapping advice)

You say:Systems very seldom end up working in the end.
(Then what is StatFox doing posting all of these systems for and why are you here?)

You say:Qman has lost it.
(been here 22 years so I must be doing something right)

You say:The problem is people like Qman will continue to bet even when the system has its losing streak, which it will, and they will end up back to ground zero.
(see above)

You say:Sorry for the negativity but qman is being way too arrogant. In gambling the one thing I have learned over the years is not to be that arrogant. It will always get you in trouble.
(don't know what you're saying here except maybe it's the ONE thing you've learned)

You say:Now I am still here after 10 years so I am doing something right.
(And that makes you a genius and able to say something like, I might have just started)

You say:I have not bet yet in a few weeks. Waiting and watching. I know what my next bet will most likely be but it has not happened yet.
(yet you get on here with YOUR SYSTEM and think everyone should have faith in your picks)

Give us all a break and lay off of your bashing of others and thinking you are the only one with the answers. Jeffn86, Jake,Nick,and the others put in hard work to bring up something that they are excited about and have offered it to us, just like you did with yours and no one (including myself) dissed the idea. Good Luck in your watching and I will continue to bring my thoughts, as arrogant as they may seem, to someone here that might be in need of a little help or incouragement. That is all of the talking I am going to do on this silly matter with you. Now back to the systems that rarely work.

Old Post 05-11-03 05:18 AM
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CHOP
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 4755

theqman

It's no biggie, but I think the Temptations sang "Just My Imagination", not Smokey Robinson. Just like to keep the records straight (no pun intended).

Old Post 05-11-03 05:35 AM
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067

How did you do today?

I did not bother to waste my time going back to show you what you said that was totally wrong. We will just let the numbers do the talking. Everyones eyes are on the system. My eye is on statistical validity. You forgot to mention that I like the star system because it is one maybe two picks a day not over 5 most days. I have said many times before that the star system is not truly valid yet. But it has a lot better chance than the system you tout so heavily. Which system are you talking about that I have talked about. The only bet I have said is a 100% good bet is a W3-W4 when a team is a dog. I have went back two seasons and have over 200 games. The dog is right at 50% and a little higher this year. That is it. They are rare though. 100 games in a whole year fit this profile. This is a winning system. As far as the ??? system you have fell in love with I was just giving information about how the stats of gambling relate to this system at this moment. I never remember wishing your system would not work, I just remember saying that it is a statisical impossibility. The numbers will drop as I said. Right now is a very very bad time to bet this systems picks. Too many bets and the win percent is way too high. It will drop. It is the way the system works. I never said the system was bad or that it would not work in the long run. I never did once complain about the work put into it. I did wish it good luck every single time and still do. If you want to be confrontational then I will tell it like it is. I have already said it before todays games. Losing is coming soon. I hate to see all the good guys on the board jump on a system right now when it is at its peak to go on a big losing streak to even out the numbers. Be happy with what you have won. I see all the guys asking for spreadsheets, I am just asking them to be careful. I am not there to make the bet for them. If they want to have losing days and see the 42-8 and start getting wild betting this unvalid system then that is their decision. I am just saying it is SMART to wait and see what happens with a system that comes out so strong. The economy of gambling will not let it continue. Now is the time to bet against these teams. The streak was way too large coming into today. Today was the day to load up against it. Hell, the next week is load up against it. I will go and dig into my roll and bet against it for the next few days. I said I was waiting for the right bet but I will throw some change the way of the opposite team that this system picks for the next week. When it evens out then it might have another run again. For now, it is downhill. Sorry you had to hear it first. But you have to hear it. You have to see it. You have to give back some of the early easy run money over the next days/weeks and then see if it can come out as a winning situation. You do not talk the big numbers you are talking after seeing less than a weeks picks. In the system you are so in love with the number of bets per day is way too large for it to work. Therein lies the biggest problem. If it could be molded into a system with 2 picks a day then you will be talking about a good system with a chance at long term profitability. You want to argue, I just want to tell it like it really is. I have no need to go back and take your words and correct your errors. We could go back and forth all night but there is no need. As I said before the proof is in the pudding. So show us some winners and prove me wrong. Day one of me thinking the system will begin to go down??? How did it do?? Would you like me to keep track of this or would you like to?

PS-Jeff and the other guys that have worked on this system this is nothing against you guys or your system. Q man is being way too arrogant and that is bad for any sports gambling situation. This is not directed at any of you guys. I am just explaining why I feel this system is going to have a few losing days soon. I am not saying to stop the great work because so far it has been very good. I, like everyone, loves to see the book get beat. And as I have always said I hope this system becomes a true winner. I just think it needs time to mature. I am not booking my trip to Bora Bora after one weeks results.

Old Post 05-11-03 07:20 AM
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theqman
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2003
Posts: 3601

Chop thanks for the clarification. I like the song even though I don't know who sings it.

bbaffert, OK you win. I will start playing against it too now that it went 2-4. It never really had a chance but it did make some nice loot while it lasted. Sorry Jeffn86 you tried buddy. Maybe we can catch the next run with the experts.

Old Post 05-11-03 07:51 AM
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vick
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 3241

Spreadsheet

COuld someone please send me a copy to

mvpvick7@yahoo.com

THANKS

Old Post 05-11-03 04:23 PM
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Stugots


Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 7

Could I please get a copy also.....HBkid20000@netscape.net

Old Post 05-11-03 06:45 PM
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jeffn86
StatFox Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 1724

sorry guys, keep getting an error when i try to send the attachments

Old Post 05-12-03 07:51 PM
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