Here we go 2 weeks left in the season
GL

Updated EPL winner betting at BetMGM

Favorites
▪️ Manchester City -250
▪️ Arsenal +190

Highest Ticket%
▪️ Arsenal 25.4%
▪️ Liverpool 25.4%
▪️ Man City 14.7%

Highest Handle%
▪️ Man City 36.2%
▪️ Liverpool 25.0%
▪️ Arsenal 21.8%

Young Boys remain in pole position in the Swiss Super League despite enduring a rocky spell immediately after the winter break. After suffering three straight losses in a week, the Bern club surprisingly dismissed Raphael Wicky as head coach back in March, claiming the team needed “fresh energy” for the run-in. U21 boss Joel Magnin took caretaker charge.

Results have gradually improved since – YBB have tabled W5-D2-L1 across their past eight, although Young Boys have remained as strong as ever at their Wankdorf Stadium base. Across the 2023/24 campaign, the hosts have posted 13 triumphs from 16 Super League home showdowns here, including 3-0, 5-1 and 4-2 thrashings in their last three such tussles.

That imperious record makes the current 2.00 on Young Boys just too big to dismiss on Saturday. The defending champions are averaging 2.75 goals in front of their own supporters, shipping just 11 goals across those aforementioned 16 home fixtures, whilst earlier this term they slammed their weekend visitors Lugano 4-1 in this very fixture.

Lugano have terrible memories of travelling to Bern – the guests have lost 10 of 13 winless trips to the Wankdorf Stadium, shipping 31 goals since 2017.

The visitors have shipped multiple goals in 10 of 17 away days thus far (W9-D2-L6), giving up 1.63 Expected Goals (xG) at top-half teams, allowing an average of nine attempts from inside the penalty area.

Young Boys -0.5 vs Lugano – 1 unit

La Liga soccer returns this weekend for match 35, which kicks off on Friday with Girona and Alavés at the Mendizorrotza.

The home side comes into this fixture in 11th in the league table, pushing for a top 10 finish in the Spanish top flight for the first time since the 2016-17 campaign.

Meanwhile, the visitors clinched a Champions League place next season after the win over Barcelona last week.

There is no question that Luis García has done an outstanding job as manager of Alavés this season. This club was playing in the Segunda last season, and now the team is in a good spot to finish in the top half.

One of the keys to this strong campaign has been the form at home. Only five teams have more league wins than Alaves’ eight victories.

García’s team has won three of the last four at the Mendizorrotza, which includes defeating Atlético Madrid 2-0.

Another impressive feature of the season is that Alavés are comfortably safe from relegation without a dominant goalscorer. The team’s leading scorer has eight league goals, which shows how strong the club is defensively.

Outside of Bayern Leverkusen, Girona are the next-best story in European soccer this season. The club has clinched a top four finish in La Liga to earn a place in the Champions League.

However, there could be some complications with their bid to play in the UCL. The club is owned by the City Group, which also controls Manchester City.

The UEFA Champions League regulations state that only one team can be admitted under these circumstances, which is decided by the club that finishes the highest in its domestic league.

It remains to be seen how this plays out, but you can’t take away the special season this has been for Girona.

The best bet is for the total to fall under 2.5 goals at +105, which I would play down to -120.

If you start first with Alavés, this has been a profitable bet in home games. This same play would have cashed in 13-of-17 (76%) home fixtures.

The percentage gets even better against the top opposition in La Liga. At home against top 10 sides, only one of seven matches has finished with at least three goals.

One of the reasons behind this has been the strong defensive numbers. Only Real Madrid and Cádiz allow fewer than Alavés’ 0.89 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com.

Meanwhile, these same trends have happened recently on the road for Girona. The last four trips to bottom 10 clubs have all ended with less than 2.5 goals.

Another key to this play is a key missing player. Alavés’ leading scorer Samuel Omorodion is suspended, which is a huge knock for a team that lacks many goal threats.

Even if the visitors are at full strength, I could see a letdown after the victory over Barcelona, especially against a tough defense.

Manchester City looks to take one step closer to the Premier League title when they travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham.

Fulham is safe and secure from relegation and has no shot of getting into the top half of the table, so at this point they are just playing for pride and potentially play spoiler. They have performed really well at home against some of the top teams in the league, so this will not be a breeze for Manchester City.

It's pretty simple for Manchester City, if they win out, they win the Premier League title. Arsenal has a six-goal advantage in terms of goal difference, so if they drop points in their final three matches, they leave the door open for the Gunners to snatch the Premier League title.

They are coming off a 5-1 beatdown of Wolves, but some of their performances recently leave a lot to be desired so, they could potentially trip up on Saturday against Fulham.

Fulham has been pretty good over the second half of the season because manager Marco Silva has given them freedom and tactical flexibility to play more on the front foot. And they still stay true their identity of playing a solid low defensive block while countering from deep.

When these teams met at the Etihad earlier in the season, the final scoreline does not tell you how good Fulham was for most of the match.

City ended up winning 5-1, scoring those five goals off of 2.2 expected, which included one penalty, so they really scored five goals from open play off of 1.5 expected. They were only able to get off five shots from open play and one off of a set piece — that was it. Pep Guardiola was obsessed with playing through the center against Fulham’s low block and the Cottagers did a fantastic job of not letting City do that.

Fulham just proved their ability to defend in a low block recently at home, holding Liverpool to one expected goal and 27 touches in their penalty area.

This time around, Fulham has a much better striker — that is in fantastic form — in Rodrigo Muniz, who has 0.50 xG per 90 minutes and is averaging over four shots per 90.

Fulham scored in that first match by taking advantage of a weakness from City that has prevalent all season and one they are well overdue to be exposed for — defending set pieces. City has only allowed two goals off of set pieces, but have conceded close to six expected off of them and are in the bottom half of the Premier League in xG per set piece.

The problems for City defending in transition are still there and if you look at how teams recently have scored or created chances against them, it’s via crosses — Real Madrid did it, Nottingham Forest did it and Fulham can do the same.

Fulham, since the beginning of February, are averaging 1.67 xG per 90 minutes and are still the team that likes to attack in wide areas to send in crosses. Manchester City has allowed the 10th-highest percentage of crosses into their penalty area, so Fulham could nick a goal off a cross.

Manchester City has also been on a crazy positive variance run over their past three matches. They beat Brighton, Nottingham Forest and Wolves by a combined score of 11-1, but the expected goals in those three matches has been 6.0 to 2.8 — if we remove the two penalties they were awarded, it’s only 4.4 to 2.8.

Once again, we are getting an inflated price on Manchester City because they have to win to maintain their lead at the top of the table, while Fulham doesn’t really have anything to play for.

Fulham looked pretty good in their previous match on the road at Brentford, outplaying them for a majority of the match and winning the xG battle 1.3 to 0.6.

There has been a pretty drastic difference between Fulham playing at Craven Cottage versus on the road. At home this season, they have a +3.2 xGD vs. a -11.3 xGD on the road. Plus, they only have a -0.7 xGD against the Big Six at home and have pulled off upsets over both Arsenal and Tottenham.

Tottenham continues their push toward the top four when they host Burnley.

Spurs are going through a difficult run and have lost four straight matches to Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Questions are starting to come up about Ange Postecoglou and his philosophies, so Spurs desperately need a win here to quiet the critics. They are seven points behind Aston Villa with a game in hand for top four, so they basically need to win out to have any hope of getting back into the Champions League.

Burnley are somehow still alive to survive relegation, but are going to need to win out and receive a lot of help. Their 5-1 loss at home against Newcastle didn't do them any favors, so now they will need to pull off a major upset against Tottenham and beat Nottingham Forest on the final day if they haven't already been relegated. Tottenham beat them 5-2 in the previous meeting, so they will need to be a lot better defensively to pull off the upset.

Everything with Tottenham over the past few weeks, during this bad run of form, is centered around Postecoglou not caring about set pieces. The good news in this matchup is they most likely won't have to worry about set pieces because Burnley is last in the Premier League in xG per set piece and have only scored five goals off of them.

The other reason that Tottenham has struggled defensively is because of their ability to defend in transition. Because Postecoglou's in-possession system of a 2-3-5 build up is designed to overload the last line of defense and push the fullbacks high up the pitch, it often leaves Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven in one-on-one situations defending in transition. Good transition teams, like Newcastle, have punished them, but Burnley is far from a good transition team, ranking 12th in final third to box entry conversion rate.

The Tottenham offense that has declined in recent weeks. It's without a doubt due to the fact that they've played better competition, but they have only created 8.1 npxG over their past six matches, which is actually less than Burnley have created over that same time period.

The losses of Destiny Udogie and Timo Werner has been felt as the two of them — with their ball carrying and creative ability — made it much easier for Tottenham to break down passive defensive set ups.

Burnley have faced two transition-based teams — Manchester United and Newcastle — in recent matches and will now be facing a possession based build up team, so I don't think we are going see an end-to-end type of match.

At the beginning of November, Burnley switched to a 4-4-2 to give them more defensive stability. They also started playing more passively because the aggressive pressing just wasn’t working. Since they made the switch to a 4-4-2, they are allowing 1.74 xG per 90 minutes. Prior, they were allowing 1.95 xG per 90 minutes.

Given the way the matches have been going recently, one would believe this match is going to be chaotic.

In just six of Tottenham’s 34 matches this year have there been more than four expected goals created and I'm not sure Burnley is going to press them relentlessly like they tried to do in the first meeting.

Since Burnley has switched to a 4-4-2, it's given them more defensive stability, and their best possible route to getting three points in this match is not turn this into an up-and-down track meet, but to counter attack Tottenham and get those one-on-one situations.

Burnley are five points from safety with two games to play. If they don’t win this one, they will be officially relegated and heading straight back to the Championship.

The Clarets will be desperate to get the three points here to give themselves a chance and set up what could potentially be a “winner survives” final-day clash with Nottingham Forest. If they can get that far, I think they would be favorites to beat Forest.

Vincent Kompany will still need results elsewhere to go their way, but all his side can do is take care of their own business. That means visiting Tottenham and beating them.

Looking at the odds with Spurs priced at -345, you would think they may as well start planning for life in the second tier already. I think this a lot closer than the odds suggest and make the +750 a very big price.

Ange Postecoglou’s men are playing terrible, conceding an awful lot of goals and are on the worst run under the big Aussie since he joined the club. They have lost their last four league games and conceded 13 goals in the process.

Admittedly, those fixtures were all against sides in the top seven, but Spurs look leg-weary. They are suffering from injuries to key players, especially in defensive areas, which has led to them looking very vulnerable at the back.

There is a well-used phrase in the UK that is to be “Spursy,” which basically means to have success close but to throw it away, especially by losing to sides you should beat. I certainly wouldn’t be backing them at -345 here when they need four points to guarantee European soccer next season and with rock-bottom Sheffield United to play on the last day.

This is going to be difficult against a Burnley side that I know were disappointing last week. They will be ready to give it their all in this do-or-die fixture. They have only lost two of their last nine games, and some of those performances deserved better.

Now it is time for the biggest match of their season and arguably in the career of Kompany. I wouldn’t put anyone off a small slice of that +750 on the Moneyline but the bet must be taking Burnley +1.75 Asian Handicap at -120 which is absolutely huge.

That means we only lose our full stake if Tottenham win by three or more goals. something they have only managed once at home this season.

I don’t think Burnley’s need to win has been factored into this price. Or that the adaptation to “Ange-ball” has taken its toll on this weary looking, injury-ravaged Spurs side who are longing for the beach.

EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1.75 Asian Handicap at -120.

Burnley need to win this match if it wants any chance of remaining in the Premier League next year. Spurs need to win this match to keep their top four hopes alive, or else Spurs will come up just short of a Champions League place next year. These are two of the worst set piece defenses in the entire PL, but the total remains quite inflated all the way up at four. Despite the issues of both clubs to defend set pieces, Burnley and Spurs rank 19th and 20th in xG created from attacking set pieces this season.

Neither club is well equipped to exploit the clear weakness of the opposition defense. Tottenham have had major problems with conceding goals in the last four matches against Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea and Newcastle, but the defense won’t be nearly as exposed by Burnley given that the Clarets rank bottom three in crosses completed into the box and have averaged just 1.04 xG per 90 in 2024 when you remove red card effects.

The goal scoring environment in the PL is as high as it's been for decades but we’ve reached the point in this match where the total is far too inflated. Just seven Spurs matches all year have cleared 4.0 expected goals. I’d bet under 4 up to -120 and project this total closer to 3.5 goals.

Fulham were flattened 5-1 at The Etihad back in September, and whilst a repeat scoreline looks unlikely on Saturday, Manchester City still hold plenty of appeal in the Asian Handicap market here. Man City -1.5/2.0 provides profit for punters should the Citizens win by a margin of two goals or more, with a full pay-out ensured if City succeed by 3+.

The defending champions have claimed 11 away triumphs in 12 Premier League dates with teams in eighth and below, with eight of those victories arriving by a margin of two goals or more. Man City have scored three goals or more in seven of those 12 tussles, and their current goalscoring form suggests a repeat could well be on the cards at the Cottage.

Fulham have lost five of their seven previous home meetings with top-eight opposition this term, and Marco Silva's men have dipped below their seasonal averages in both boxes of late. The Whites have appeared porous defensively, whilst the hosts have also failed to record an Expected Goals (xG) tally bigger than 1.30 in eight of their last 11 EPL fixtures.

West Ham look to keep their hopes of securing a Europa Conference League spot alive when they host Luton Town.

Things have gone from bad to worse for West Ham over the recent weeks. They were throughly beat down in a London Derby over the weekend by Chelsea 5-0, which now puts them five points behind Chelsea for seventh place. They are technically still mathematically alive for a Europa Conference League spot, but they need to win out and get a lot of help.

Luton Town's relegation back to the Championship is all but certain at this point, but they are not done yet, which is actually a huge credit to Rob Edwards given what the Hatters have endured this season on the injury front. Luton Town are getting healthier and did put in a good performance against Everton in their recent match, but they need all three points here to have any shot at survival.

West Ham do not defend anymore. It doesn't matter if it's in a low defensive block or if they make an attempt at pressing an opponent high, everyone has been able to create chances against them.

Since the start of 2024, they are allowing 2.39 xG per 90 minutes, which is the most in the Premier League. West Ham are a much worse defense and they struggle in the two areas where Luton Town excel. West Ham have allowed the fourth-most crosses into their penalty area, which is basically the only way that Luton Town create chances from open play. West Ham have also been pretty horrific in terms of ball stopping when trying to defend teams in transition.

The Hammers will likely have to be the ones to control a majority of the possession in this match and will probably try to build out of the back from dead ball situations. When they have tried that, it's gone one of two ways. Either they make a costly turnover in their own end or they beat the first line of pressure and get it in the feet of their elite ball carriers like Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen, who are able to punish anybody in transition. Since February 26th, West Ham have only been held under one expected goal in three Premier League matches and are averaging 1.46 xG per 90 minutes.

Luton Town abandoned their low block a long time ago and have primarily been trying to press opponents from build up and win the ball high. They have played two teams that are very similar to West Ham in Everton and Wolves recently and have done a relatively good job of defending against them, but West Ham have much better players in attack that can exploit them.

Only West Ham have allowed more expected goals in 2024 with the Hatters, conceding 2.33 per 90 minutes. Rob Edward has basically conceded to the fact that they are so bad in any type of defensive shape that they might as well go for it and try to outscore their opponents. It has helped them offensively by creating some good transition opportunities when they do win the ball high up the pitch. Since January 30th, Luton Town have scored in all but one Premier League match and are averaging 1.30 xG per 90 minutes.

Luton Town are a very unique team in the fact that they don't really play through the middle of the pitch. I am sure Rob Edwards has identified that they are not good enough to compete with teams that have good ball stopping central midfielders, so instead Luton Town have chosen to get the ball out wide and send in a lot of crosses. They have completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area, which is something West Ham have really struggled with.

This match should be very back and forth with both teams having absolutely nothing to lose. Luton’s relegation to the Championship is all but certain unless they win here and West Ham are not going to secure a Europa Conference League spot unless they win their final two matches and get a lot of help.

When you have two teams like this who play very similar styles of wanting to play in transition it can create a very high scoring environment. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Luton and West Ham have allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League, primarily because they are both so bad at defending in low defensive blocks and they keep falling behind and having to play more aggressively out of possession, which leads to more space for teams to play in behind them.

Over 3.5 +110

Tottenham continues their push toward the top four when they host Burnley.

Spurs are going through a difficult run and have lost four straight matches to Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Questions are starting to come up about Ange Postecoglou and his philosophies, so Spurs desperately need a win here to quiet the critics. They are seven points behind Aston Villa with a game in hand for top four, so they basically need to win out to have any hope of getting back into the Champions League.

Burnley are somehow still alive to survive relegation, but are going to need to win out and receive a lot of help. Their 5-1 loss at home against Newcastle didn't do them any favors, so now they will need to pull off a major upset against Tottenham and beat Nottingham Forest on the final day if they haven't already been relegated. Tottenham beat them 5-2 in the previous meeting, so they will need to be a lot better defensively to pull off the upset.

Everything with Tottenham over the past few weeks, during this bad run of form, is centered around Postecoglou not caring about set pieces. The good news in this matchup is they most likely won't have to worry about set pieces because Burnley is last in the Premier League in xG per set piece and have only scored five goals off of them.

The other reason that Tottenham has struggled defensively is because of their ability to defend in transition. Because Postecoglou's in-possession system of a 2-3-5 build up is designed to overload the last line of defense and push the fullbacks high up the pitch, it often leaves Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven in one-on-one situations defending in transition. Good transition teams, like Newcastle, have punished them, but Burnley is far from a good transition team, ranking 12th in final third to box entry conversion rate.

The Tottenham offense that has declined in recent weeks. It's without a doubt due to the fact that they've played better competition, but they have only created 8.1 npxG over their past six matches, which is actually less than Burnley have created over that same time period.

The losses of Destiny Udogie and Timo Werner has been felt as the two of them — with their ball carrying and creative ability — made it much easier for Tottenham to break down passive defensive set ups.

Burnley have faced two transition-based teams — Manchester United and Newcastle — in recent matches and will now be facing a possession based build up team, so I don't think we are going see an end-to-end type of match.

At the beginning of November, Burnley switched to a 4-4-2 to give them more defensive stability. They also started playing more passively because the aggressive pressing just wasn’t working. Since they made the switch to a 4-4-2, they are allowing 1.74 xG per 90 minutes. Prior, they were allowing 1.95 xG per 90 minutes.

Burnley also made a change at goalkeeper, starting Arijanet Muric, who has been incredible. In eight matches, he has a +6.6 post shot xG +/-.

Given the way the matches have been going recently, one would believe this match is going to be chaotic.

In just six of Tottenham’s 34 matches this year have there been more than four expected goals created and I'm not sure Burnley is going to press them relentlessly like they tried to do in the first meeting.

Since Burnley has switched to a 4-4-2, it's given them more defensive stability, and their best possible route to getting three points in this match is not turn this into an up-and-down track meet, but to counter attack Tottenham and get those one-on-one situations.

Under 4 -112

Crystal Palace will try to continue their stunning close to the Premier League season on Saturday when they visit a Wolves side trying to finish the campaign with consecutive home victories.

The long-awaited ability to field both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in the same XI has resulted in Palace posting a five-match unbeaten run for new manager Oliver Glasner.

Meanwhile, Wolves might finally be getting over their own injury bug after missing their two best scorers for stretches of the winter and spring.

Palace earned a 3-2 win over Wolves at Selhurst Park back in early September in one of their final positive results before the climate turned sour around former Eagles boss Roy Hodgson.

Crystal Palace will try to continue their stunning close to the Premier League season on Saturday when they visit a Wolves side trying to finish the campaign with consecutive home victories.

The long-awaited ability to field both Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise in the same XI has resulted in Palace posting a five-match unbeaten run for new manager Oliver Glasner.

Meanwhile, Wolves might finally be getting over their own injury bug after missing their two best scorers for stretches of the winter and spring.

Palace earned a 3-2 win over Wolves at Selhurst Park back in early September in one of their final positive results before the climate turned sour around former Eagles boss Roy Hodgson.

Glasner deserves credit for Palace’s late-season improvement, with the Eagles starting to show signs of growth before their two wingers reached full fitness again.

But it’s also about the players he's had available, and it's hard to ignore the stats when Eze and Olise are both in the Eagles’ first XI, a rare occurrence only because of injuries both have managed.

Palace are 5-2-0 (W-L-D) in seven such league games, having won five in a row. And the results have only improved over time, with the Eagles slaying Liverpool away and then routing Manchester United 4-0 at home in their last outing.

They’ve also scored in all seven of those games and scored three goals or more in four of those.

Eze has scored five of his eight goals in games that Olise has also started, which also makes sense. When Olise isn’t on the pitch, Eze is a much easier target for defenses to restrict his dual-threat capabilities, even though Jean-Philippe Mateta leads the club with 12 goals.

But when Olise plays, he has been the Eagles' most efficient attacker, with his nine goals and four assists in 17 appearances. He’s averaging more than one goal contribution per 90 minutes.

Despite the Eagles’ obvious improvement, the lurking variable in those results with Eze and Olise is that every multi-goal performance has come at home. They scored one goal in each of the two away games in which both men were involved from the start, a pattern that aligns with Palace's mediocre away form overall.

That leads me to think there's a little bit of an overreaction here in the line after that Man United drubbing, which is understandable. So while there is plenty of reason to respect Palace’s improvements, this is a spot to fade them.

Wolves vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

Crystal Palace turned up last week as they destroyed Manchester United. I am going in on them again here. For one of the few times this season, they could put out their strongest starting line-up, and, oh, how it showed.

Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze, Jean-Philippe Mateta and Adam Wharton all started and were exceptional. The Red Devils could not get near them, and in the end, the 4-0 scoreline flattered United, if anything.

Oliver Glasner’s hardest job will be keeping those stars once the transfer window reopens. In the meantime, the feelgood factor is back, with a manager playing to his squad’s strengths with an open, exciting, and front-foot style.

You couldn’t get two sides meet in more contrasting form or mood. Wolves just want the season to end while Palace would be happy to just keep playing.

Gary O’Neil has seen his side win just one of their last nine games across all competitions. That win was against strugglers Luton but was followed up by a crushing 5-1 defeat at Manchester City.

History has shown Wolves to be traditionally very good at home, but they have lost four of their last five at Molineux. That includes defeats to West Ham and Bournemouth in the league and mid-table Championship side Coventry in the FA Cup. With injury concerns over several key players, there is plenty for the home side to worry about.

In contrast, the Eagles are now unbeaten in their last five, winning four of them. I think they are more dangerous on the road than at home. They certainly have the tools to cause even the best teams’ problems on the counterattack, and Wolves do not come into that bracket.

The visitors are one side in the league who despite having nothing to play for will be driven on by their new manager to finish as strong as they can. There has been a rebase on Palace with them going off at minus money against Manchester United and they are the favourites again here. Rightly so.

Palace are a public play currently, but unusually for me, it is one I am happy to get behind. Once again, I wouldn’t put anyone off taking them on the moneyline, but the draw does concern me, so my play is the safer option of Tie No Bet, meaning if it does end all square, we get our stake back.

EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at -134.

As we approach the conclusion of the 2023/24 Premier League season, there are quite a few matches with not much at stake other than the three Ps: pride, personal accolades and a position or two in the table.

This clash between Bournemouth and Brentford certainly falls under that criteria. Relegation isn't a concern for the Bees and Europe is more than likely out of the picture for the Cherries. The lack of a direct motivation to win for either side eliminates one possible betting angle, but there are still other ways to handicap this fixture.

Last time out, Andoni Iraola's side got swept aside by Arsenal at the Emirates by a final margin of 3-0. Despite the one-sided scoreline, there were still some positives for Bournemouth to take away from that one, and had a couple of refereeing decisions gone the other way, they might have had a chance at taking some points with them back to the south coast.

The Cherries haven't been on a bad run of form either, overcoming Brighton and Wolves and drawing with Manchester United in their last five fixtures.

The first thing that jumps out about Bournemouth is the man leading the line — Dominic Solanke. The English forward has accumulated 18 league goals on comparable xG. He also provides solid hold-up play in addition to the final product.

Iraola's team has been all about an aggressive pressing approach without the ball and attacking transition opportunities that arise from turnovers, and Solanke has been the biggest benefactor.

Recently, the Spanish coach has made a couple of personnel tweaks, replacing Neto for Mark Travers between the sticks and playing Enes Unal alongside Solanke instead of deploying an attacking midfielder behind his top goalscorer.

Lastly, with Milos Kerkez serving a ban for a red card against Wolves, Iraola has turned to Dango Outtara, a natural winger, to fill in at left back in the last two matches, but he could throw Lloyd Kelly in at that spot for a more defensive option.

Based on xG, Manchester United and Brentford are having inverse campaigns.

The Bees are eighth in the expected goals table, while United are 15th, but in the actual standings, United are eighth while Brentford sit in 16th. In other words, if there's a side that's underperformed purely relative to chances created and faced, it's the West London club.

This hasn't happened inexplicably, however, with the Bees missing Ivan Toney for half the season and suffering numerous injuries in the back line. A drop in quality, especially at either end of the pitch, naturally leads to worse performance in those areas.

Regardless, Thomas Frank's side are still the same defensively stable, intelligent outfit that they've always been. Recently, Frank has switched from a 5-3-2 mid/deep block to a 4-5-1, which has meant deploying one less defender in favor of an additional attacker, but the ethos hasn't changed.

The Bees are still incredibly compact without the ball, they look for Toney's large frame as soon as they gain possession and have multiple runners for the English striker to find in transitions. They also try to take advantage of every set piece situation, posting the eighth-highest xG per set piece.

More impressively, they allow the second-lowest xG per set piece against. In short, they aren't an easy team to play against and they maximize their strengths.

In the reverse fixture, Brentford recorded 2.83 xT to Bournemouth's 1.03, and had just under 65% of the field tilt. Despite controlling territory and being way more threatening, they were only able to get a draw out of the match. Those metrics bode well for this contest, and on top of that the Bees aren't a great matchup for the Cherries, especially on the road.

Frank and co. will be more than willing to cede possession, forcing Bournemouth to cut them in settled play — which they aren't that capable of doing — and won't try to test Bournemouth's press, opting to fire long balls up to Toney. That greatly reduces the possibility of the Cherries creating chances from high turnovers.

Brentford have the set piece threat and potency in transition — especially with Toney healthy — to crack Bournemouth's defense, and they will be able to mitigate many of their opponents' strengths. Given the likely game dynamics, a moneyline of +270

Nottingham Forest vs. Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET

Nottingham Forest did justify the ridiculous odds last week as they came from behind to beat Sheffield United 3-1. They were lucky to be in the game at halftime before going on to claim the win in the second half. Let’s not forget they were playing a relegated side, bottom of the league, with just 16 points on the board and who have now conceded 100 goals. This is a massive step up in class.

If results go their way in the earlier games, Forest could actually be safe by the time they kick off here. That would have a massive impact on this fixture and change the betting completely, with the price on Chelsea crashing.

Regardless of that scenario, my bet here is still for Chelsea to win at -103. The only reason they are that price is because the hosts are in a relegation scrap and could well have to win.

The other thing I like about this play is Forest’s form against the better sides in the league when they visit the City Ground. Of the remaining members of the top seven, five have returned with a win, and Nuno Espirito Santo’s men have collected just three points from a possible 18.

The slight concern is that Chelsea have not won any of the last five on the road but have drawn four of those, including trips to Aston Villa and Manchester City, with their only defeat coming at Arsenal. However, the emphatic nature of their last two wins is enough to convince me Mauricio Pochettino has his side on the right path.

Nicolas Jackson has started finding his feet and scored three goals in his last two games. While player of the season Cole Palmer has 30 direct goal involvements to his name in the league (21 goals, nine assists).

The Blues are now well in the hunt for a European qualification place. Sitting in seventh, their highest position of the season, they are two points behind Newcastle and six adrift of Spurs with three games to play.

Chelsea on the moneyline at -103 is the play.

Chelsea look to keep their good run of form going when they travel to the City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest.

Nottingham Forest got a massive win last weekend in their quest for survival beating Sheffield United 3-1. It's pretty simple for Forest. As long as Luton Town do not beat West Ham, they just need a result from this match to secure their spot in the Premier League next season.

They pulled off a huge upset at Stamford Bridge earlier this year and are capable of doing the same here at the City Ground.

Chelsea are flying high at the moment after back-to-back wins against London rivals Tottenham and West Ham. The Blues have now positioned themselves to potentially get a spot in the Europa League next season if they can over take Newcastle, but to do that they are going to need all three points here on Saturday.

Nottingham Forest have been going through a bad run in terms of results, but the underlying metrics have actually been pretty impressive, especially defensively.

They are still playing a passive low block under Nuno Espirto Santo, it's just a different structure more of a 5-4-1 than the 5-3-2 they played under Steve Cooper. However, since the beginning of March, Nottingham Forest have allowed 1.08 npxG per 90 minutes, which is the fourth-best mark in the Premier League during that time frame.

They also have been creating a lot of chances in transition too because they have a +4.5 npxGD during that same time frame, but they have lost five matches. Then you compare that to Chelsea, who have a +6.5 npxGD since the beginning of March, but they’ve only lost one match.

They are really good in their low defensive block too. The Trees are second in the Premier League in final third to box entry conversion rate, allowing their opponents inside their penalty area at only a 25.7% rate once they enter the final third. Manchester City found that out first hand when Forest limited them to a 21.3% final third to box entry conversion rate and just 0.9 expected goals.

Nottingham Forest are about as direct as it gets in the Premier League and also has the pace with Morgan Gibbs-White, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga, etc. to give Chelsea a lot of problems.

Since Espírito Santo has taken over, the offensive performances have improved, as they are averaging 1.49 xG per 90 minutes and just created 2.0 expected goals against Manchester City two weeks ago.

There have been some real tactical improvements with Chelsea over the recent weeks, most notably in their build up. They have been starting Chalobah at right back out of necessity, but it has allowed them to either utilize a 4-2 with Gallagher and Caicedo as the double pivot or a 3-2 with Cucurella inverting into the midfield.

They were doing a fantastic job interchanging these two structures over the weekend against West Ham, but it wasn’t really that effective against Spurs with their biggest chances coming off set pieces and against Arsenal they also really struggled to build through their press.

Chelsea have a clear weakness defensively and that is defending in transition, which is a problem here against Nottingham Forest given how direct of a style they play. As you've seen in recent matches against Tottenham and Manchester City that when the Blues are able to sit in a low defensive block and play in transition, they are a much better team.

Chelsea are dealing with a lot of injuries to their midfield and back line. Enzo Fernandez, Malo Gusto, Thiago Siliva, Ben Chillwell and Levi Colwil are all going to miss this match, which is has shown itself to a problem because over their last 14 matches, Chelsea are allowing 1.84 xG per 90 minutes.

There is a pretty big difference between the performances of these two sides at home versus on the road. Chelsea at Stamford Bridge have a +20.3 xGD, but they have a -3.2 xGD away from home, while Nottingham Forest have played really well at the City Ground, putting up a +3.3 xGD.

One thing that has been very true about Chelsea this season is they are not the most effective team breaking down good low blocks and they are much better playing in transition. Nottingham Forest have been the best passive low block in the Premier League over the past two months, so I think the Blues are going to have real difficulties here at the City Ground.

The flip side is that Chelsea have struggled defending in transition, which is bad news against Forest, who play extremely direct and fast with great ball carriers and creators in transition.

another great morning for the 4 of us here, 1 left

EPL Best Bet: Crystal Palace Tie No Bet at -134. WINNER

Given the likely game dynamics, a moneyline of +270 BOOM WINNER

Spurs Under 4 -112 WINNER

West Ham Over 3.5 +110 WINNER

EPL Best Bet: Burnley +1.75 Asian Handicap at -120. WINNER

Chelsea on the moneyline at -103 is the play.

Chelsea on the moneyline at -103 is the play. WINNER

As you would expect from this fixture in the 21st century, the result could determine who ends up going on to win the Premier League. However, in that sense, Manchester United aren't playing for their own success, but instead that of their local rivals, Manchester City.

There are all sorts of permutations still left for how the title could be decided, but Arsenal give themselves the best chance at grabbing it by winning their final two fixtures. Meanwhile, United are fighting for European qualification, although even if they fail to finish in the top seven, they will still have one last chance in the FA Cup final.

Implications and ramifications aside, this is one of the fiercest rivalries in English soccer, and a win in this fixture will mean a fair amount irrespective of the greater context the game is being played in.

The post-Sir Alex Ferguson era has brought quite a few underwhelming seasons to the red side of Manchester, but this campaign is shaping up to be the worst of them all. After a promising first season in charge for Erik ten Hag, where United finished third and won the Carabao Cup, the wheels have completely fallen off. There's been so many incidents and injuries — a lot of which the manager is to blame — it would be impossible to list them all here, and on top of that, the game model ten Hag has implemented is riddled with flaws, which hasn't been helped by subpar recruitment and squad management.

In their last fixture, the Red Devils were torn apart 4-0 by Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. Yes, they had zero fit center backs — Johnny Evans failed the fitness test and still played 90 minutes — but there were problems all over the pitch, not just in the heart of their defense. Lisandro Martinez, Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes were all back in training this week, and it would be a surprise if they didn't feature on Sunday because ten Hag has no qualms with rushing his players back from injury.

If there's going to be one saving grace for United in this fixture, it's their history – especially under ten Hag – of finding successful results against "big" teams at Old Trafford. They pulled out wins against Arsenal and Liverpool in this stadium last season, and they knocked Liverpool out of the FA Cup here this season as well. The reason for that success are pretty simple. The only thing the Red Devils are moderately competent at is attacking transitions, and they only get a lot of those against teams that play on the front foot against them.

As mentioned previously, this is more or less a must-win game for Mikel Arteta and co., which doesn't bode well given Arsenal have only won at Old Trafford twice since 2006. One of those wins was an FA Cup tie, and the other was during the pandemic with no fans in the stadium. Last season's meeting here was one of their best chances to improve that record, but United were ruthless on the counter-attack, and the Gunners couldn't convert their dominance into a positive result.

Arsenal enter this fixture on as good of form as anyone in the league — well, besides Manchester City — having won their last four matches, which include derby triumphs over Tottenham and Chelsea. Additionally, they're about as healthy as anyone, although Arteta mentioned some doubts with Takehiro Tomiyasu and Bukayo Saka that will have to be resolved before the match. Missing either or both would be a blow to the Gunners' chances, but they do have the squad depth to compensate for those potential losses to an extent.

The North London club usually looks to dominate territory with a suffocating high press and counter-press, but they have shown a willingness to be a little less aggressive in recent away matches, particularly in their trips to the Etihad and Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. In both of those contests, they used their mid/deep block as a platform, and whatever chances they were able to generate in transitions and from set pieces, they were happy with. Against Tottenham, that got them the three points, and against City they kept a clean sheet, so it's possible they could go with more of the same here.

I'll start by saying this: There isn't anything Manchester United do, besides maybe generating transitions from their deep block, better than Arsenal. There's a reason there's a 30-point gap between these two sides in the table — the gulf in player quality, tactics and management is sizable.

However, the betting markets have simply gotten out of hand. As I was watching United get trounced by Palace on Monday, I kept monitoring the lines on this game, and they must have shifted by 30 or 40 cents in those two hours. The Red Devils opened at +350 on the moneyline, and they are now below +600 at almost every book. While I think it's unlikely they somehow win this game, the probability of that happening is definitely much greater than 13%.

massive moves on the match with the starting lineups, playing OVER 3' half unit
GLTA