here we go with a race to the wire for the Championship, great matches this weekend
GLTA

A top 10 matchup kicks off this weekend's slate in La Liga when Getafe welcome Athletic Club to the Coliseum Alfonso Pérez on Friday.

Bilbao are making a push for Champions League qualification after recently winning the Copa del Rey title.

Meanwhile, Getafe are looking to end the season in the top half of the league table for the first time since the 2019-20 campaign.

Manager José Bordalás made his return to Getafe last season with the team in the relegation zone. However, he has done a great job of securing the club another campaign in the Spanish top flight without much stress.

Coming into this match, Bordalás’ squad is 17 points above the Bottom 3 with just five La Liga fixtures remaining.

One of the keys to the successful season has been the play at home. Getafe have picked up 29 of 43 points at the Coliseum.

Only five teams have less than Getafe’s three home losses, and I’m expecting Bordalás to have his side ready for another strong showing here.

Athletic Club were finally able to get over the hump in Spain’s top domestic competition by defeating Mallorca on penalties. It ended a 40-year run of not winning the Copa del Rey.

The victory also stopped a streak of six-straight losses in the final of the cup and booked Bilbao in the Europa League next season.

However, Ernesto Valverde’s side is still in the hunt to qualify for the UCL. With a win here, the club will move to within three points of Atlético Madrid in fourth.

Valverde should have his full allotment of attackers for this one, including the brothers of Nico and Iñaki Williams. The two have combined for 13 goals and 11 assists in league play.

With the total for this match juiced to the under, the oddsmakers are telling you that this should be a low-scoring affair.

Luton Town look to get out of the relegation zone when they take on Everton at Kenilworth Road.

Luton Town lost once again over the weekend to Wolves, which kept in them one point behind Nottingham Forest. The Hatters have been on a bad run, losing five of their last six matches. They desperately need all three points here to help them stave off relegation with Nottingham Forest taking on Sheffield United this weekend.

After winning their third straight match, Everton have secured a spot in the Premier League next season. The Toffees have been through more adversity off the pitch than any other club this season, so a breath of fresh air knowing they have survived relegation may allow them to play much better with the freedom they've been so desperately craving all season.

Luton Town beat Everton in the previous two meetings because they let Everton have the ball, played very passively and then hit them in transition. Given the situation they are in, I am not really sure they are in a position to play that way because they have to go for it. That means Everton can be very comfortable sitting in their mid-block and breaking from there. They also aren’t going to try to build out of the back and allow Luton to press them high.

The Hatters are getting healthier across their back line, but this is the type of matchup that doesn’t really suit them because Everton are a much better version of what Luton Town want to be. Luton are going to have to play aggressive out of possession and win a lot of long balls and duals in the middle of the pitch against a team that is elite at doing both of those things. Luton Town defensively have also been pretty poor at defending in wide areas in terms of allowing crosses into their penalty area (15th in EPL) and defending set pieces (12th in EPL), so this really isn’t a great matchup for them.

Even the offensive matchup isn't really that good because if Everton decide to sit off in their mid-block, Luton are not a team that builds out of the back with regularity and will be relying on winning dual in the middle of the pitch off of long balls against one of the best teams in the Premier League at doing just that.

Everton are an absolute pain to play against, no matter who you are, and they are starting to get a lot of the positive regression back that they've been due for.

Sean Dyche typically has his team set up to play a mid to high defensive block where they do an elite job at cutting off passing lanes through the middle of the pitch, but out of that defensive shape they can also press opponents high up the pitch when certain triggers happen. The Toffees tend to play a little more passively as a whole, so their PPDA ranks near the bottom of the Premier League, but they have forced the third-most high turnovers, so when they do press they are incredibly effective.

They also do an incredible job at limiting opponents from creating high scoring chances. Everton have allowed the second-fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League behind only Arsenal and are fourth in non-penalty expected goals allowed. They are going to face a lot of crosses in this match, which is not a problem for Everton because they are top five in winning aerial duals.

Everton have drastically underperformed offensively this season scoring 37 goals off of 45.5 expected goals, but over their last three matches they've been on a good finishing run, scoring five goals off of 2.3 expected goals.

There is a lot of must win baked into this line with Luton Town needing to win to avoid relegation and Everton already having achieved safety.

These two have met twice this season, once in the Premier League and once in the FA Cup. Over those two matches Everton created 3.9 expected goals and scored only twice, while Luton Town created 2.3 expected goals, but scored four times.

There is almost a full goal difference in underlying metrics for the season between these two sides with Luton Town having a -0.94 xGD per 90 minutes and Everton sitting at only -0.04. Even if we go from the beginning of February, Luton Town have the worst xGD in the Premier League at -1.26 per 90 minutes while Everton are around even.

Everton – Draw No Bet

Arsenal remain at the top of the Premier League table following a dramatic 3-2 victory against North London rivals Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. The Gunners do not control their own destiny, but winning their final three league matches (Bournemouth, @ Manchester United, Everton) would force Manchester City to win all four of their remaining matches to claim a fourth consecutive Premier League title.

Arsenal's job is to put the pressure on City and hope the Cityzens slip up at some point in this closing match run. The Gunners have been the league's best defense all season long and with just 26.3 xGA and 28 goals conceded in 35 league matches. They had no issue of dispatching Bournemouth on the road in the reverse fixture and are massive -500 moneyline favorites to win on Saturday.

As the season has neared the end though, the Gunners have shown more cracks defensively than they did in the early part of 2024 and even most of 2023. The schedule of opponents has also toughened up, but Arsenal haven't been nearly as dominant defensively in the last six matches. Their small defensive drop off of late opens the door for Bournemouth to make Saturday's match interesting.

At one point in the season, Arsenal were allowing just 0.51 xGA per match on home soil. The Gunners are the most elite defensive outfit in Europe this year, but there has been some slight regression from both an analytics and eye test perspective in the last month. The issues began in the second half against Aston Villa as the Gunners struggle to keep control of that match and eventually conceded a full expected goal and two late goals to drop three points at home.

Most of Bayern Munich's chances in the first leg came from Arsenal mistakes, but Bayern also scored twice on Arsenal and then followed it up with 1.3 xG and a victory in Munich in the second leg. Arsenal had consecutive wins in the league against Chelsea and Spurs, but the defense conceded at least 1.5 expected goals in both matches. Even without a penalty, Spurs created more chances than Arsenal in the match overall. The Gunners won because of their dominance of set pieces (and Chelsea's own defensive woes), but the Arsenal defense has trended marginally downward in the last month.

Some of it is schedule — Chelsea, Spurs, Aston Villa and Bayern Munich twice is a difficult run of opponents – but more mistakes have crept into the Arsenal team that simply didn't happen for so many of the first 30 league matches this year.

Instead of playing like a defense that rarely conceded more than 0.6 xG per match, Arsenal have regressed toward a standard excellent defense, not a historic one. As a result, they're more vulnerable to concede than the market suggests.

Andoni Iraola managed just one win in his first 11 Premier League matches at Bournemouth and nearly lost his job as a result. The Cherries stuck with their first year manager and they've played at a true top eight level since a 6-1 defeat to Manchester City on Nov. 4. Bournemouth are now odds on in the betting markets for a top half finish and have a chance to match or even beat the club's best ever finish in a Premier League season (ninth) with a strong finish to the season.

Bournemouth have a +0.13 xG difference since Nov. 4, which is seventh-best in the PL and only behind Chelsea, Newcastle, Spurs, Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City. The primary reason for improvement is that they stopped giving away so many high turnovers from mistakes in possession. Iraola's side became more direct and more reliant on long balls. Bournemouth are seventh in xG created and seventh in xG against.

In a season that has been defined by chaotic goalscoring in the mid table, Bournemouth have actually been a modicum of consistency. Dominic Solanke has 18 league goals, three off the golden boot race and is averaging nearly three shots per 90 minutes.

Bournemouth do have some key injuries to contend with ahead of this match. Marcus Tavernier, Antoine Semenyo and Luis Sinisterra will all miss this match as will defender Milos Kerkez. Iraola opted to play winger Dango Ouattara at full back last week and that's a decision that should help Bournemouth from an attacking perspective even if he's not a natural defender.

Bournemouth have been a top half attacking quality team for the majority of the season now and even with some wide attacking players, the core of the Cherries' attack remains present to pose a real threat to Arsenal's elite defensive metrics. Bournemouth excel on set pieces as well, which never hurts as an underdog who will struggle to maintain possession in this match.

The Gunners are likely to win this match but their price in the market is overvalued. Especially on defense, where they've shown real cracks in the last three weeks.

I hit the Luton Draw $100 bet on a nice +230. Thanks Mike

It was 0-0 when I checked for the longest. Then I saw it was 1-1 at the mid way point! Never saw anything but draw the whole time

Luton Town's loss at Wolves on Saturday secured Brentford's safety in the Premier League for yet another season. Thomas Frank's side has underperformed market expectations for the majority of the year, but Brentford were never in real danger of relegation back to the Championship and they'll stay in the PL for a fourth consecutive season. Fulham entered the year with the worst odds of any non-newly promoted team to avoid relegation, but the Cottagers have been comfortably mid table for most of the season as well and have an outside chance of finishing in the top half.

With three matches to go in the season, this is a matchup where neither side has much to play for and the variance in these kinds of matches tend to increase. The totals tend to rise considerably in matches with little on the line as both teams look toward the holiday break coming when the season concludes on May 19.

There are questions of how much the scoring environment will actually increase in the final weeks this season given that the goal environment is already north of three goals per match on average. How much higher can the Premier League goal environment rise?

No team in the Premier League has more underperformed their underlying numbers than Brentford this season. It's been an issue at both ends of the pitch as the Bees have a +4.7 expected goal differential and a -8 actual goal difference. The Bees have conceded 10 extra goals over expected, the majority of the underperformance coming thanks to a poor shot stopping season from Brentford goalkeeper Mark Flekken.

Brentford concede the second-longest average shot distance and the fifth-lowest average xG per shot and yet they've underperformed. 7.5 of the 10 goals are as a direct result of Flekken's poor shot stopping and the rest is elite opponent finishing. One key weakness for Brentford this season has been their defending of crosses and ball stopping in wide areas due to key injuries to their full backs.

That is Fulham's biggest advantage in this matchup given just how much Fulham's attack is dependent upon crosses from wide. The Cottagers and Bees are both top three in the league in crossing, but Fulham are a considerably better defensive team at preventing the crosses into the penalty area.

Brentford's attack has also wildly run bad from finishing variance perspective this season. The Bees have the lowest average shot distance and the second-best xG per shot yet they have one of the worst finishing rates in the league. The market is pricing these two teams as even but Brentford would be well above them in the table.

The emergence of Rodrigo Muniz has vaulted Fulham to right around league average in the second half of the season. The Cottagers struggled mightily for goals in January when Alex Iwobi was away at AFCON and Muniz was bedding into the first team as a consistent first team striker. Since February began, Fulham have actually posted a positive expected goal differential.

Muniz is averaging 4.37 shots per match, has 8.7 total xG and nine goals as the top choice. For most of the first half of the season, Fulham was the least efficient team in the PL at turning final third possession into box entries and shots. Those numbers have steadily improved as Muniz has become a regular.

The problems for Marco Silva's side have come in defending away from home. They're allowing nearly two expected goals per match away from Craven Cottage in the league and they've conceded 35 total goals in 17 away league matches.

Fulham have solid ball progression and field tilt allowed numbers, but they concede a ton of big scoring chances when the press does get broken open. This is a problem against a Brentford team that won't want a ton of possession but will be efficient when they have the ball and create a handful of big scoring chances

If you use only the second half data from this season, then this line is correct with Brentford around +110 on the three-way moneyline. If you incorporate the entire season's worth of data, then Brentford are undervalued and should be closer to -110 to win this match.

Neither team has much to play for and while Fulham would be considered the in-form team entering the match, Brentford's advantage on set pieces and being at home is too much to pass up plus money on this Premier League match.

Burnley will try to extend a recent improvement in form — and maybe even escape the relegation zone — on Saturday when it hosts a Newcastle United side still pursuing a top-six finish.

Vincent Kompany's Clarets have lost only once in the last eight league games to mount a late-season climb toward safety, most recently earning a 1-1 draw at Manchester United last weekend. They begin this weekend still in 19th, but two points beneath 17th-place Nottingham Forest with three matches to go for all three teams still in the relegation mix.

Newcastle has also been in good form since the end of March, winning four of its last six to climb to seventh and within a point of sixth-place Manchester United. And they've been particularly prolific in attack, scoring at least four goals in three of those victories.

The Magpies dominated the previous meeting, a 2-0 win at St. James' Park at the end of September in which Newcastle was unfortunate not to score at least one more goal.

Kompany's group has been lauded throughout the season for attempting to play attacking football. But the key to their late-season improvement has been turning that intention into more quantifiable chances.

Six of Burnley's eight top performances in terms of expected goals created have come during this eight-match run. And although the Clarets only created more xG than their opposition in three of those fixtures, the effort was good enough to secure at least a point on five occasions.

The addition of Chelsea loan product David Datro Fofana during the winter has certainly been part of that improvement, even though he has now gone five appearances without finding the net. But ironically, another contributor to the attacking improvement might be goalkeeper Arijanet Muric.

Even though the Kosovo international has twice committed gaffes leading to goals since winning the starting job from James Trafford, he's clearly been an upgrade. His 86.5% save rate is 20 points higher than Trafford's, and according to post-shot expected goals, he is performing nearly a goal better per 90 minutes than the England youth international.

While Muric can't create chances for his teammates, his performance has almost certainly made Kompany more comfortable with his team taking more risks in the attacking third.

After a disproportionate wave of injuries contributed to a December swoon for the Magpies, there was always a feeling Eddie Howe's bunch could make a late run when the schedule got less congested and the squad got healthier.

Despite some false starts, that potential was realized in April when his side played at a caliber similar to the 2022-2023 season that earned Newcastle a UEFA Champions League berth.

Perhaps many have raided Sheffield United's back line for goals, as Newcastle did in last weekend's 5-1 home win. But the Magpies also penetrated more formidable opponents Tottenham and West Ham for four goals each during those victories.

Alexander Isak scored a brace in all three victories in a late-season flourish that has brought his league total to 19 goals, vaulting him into third in the Premier League scoring race and just two back of Manchester City's Erling Haaland. Isak has more or less been good value for his seven total league goals in the last six games, scoring them on 6.0 xG in terms of chances taken.

On the other end of the pitch, Newcastle kept two clean sheets in five April league fixtures after preserving only one from January to March. It would've been three if not for a fortunate, albeit correctly awarded, penalty conceded in a 1-1 home draw to Everton.

But for as good as Newcastle has looked of late, away from — and particularly away defending — has been a stubborn problem.

While the Magpies have earned three wins in their last six away games, they've still conceded multiple goals in four of those. Over the totality of the season, the caliber of opponent hasn't mattered a whole lot in terms of their tendency to concede, having let in multiple goals in five of eight matches when visiting teams currently in the bottom half.

Burnley hasn't often translated their attacking improvement to increased output against higher-quality sides at home. But if you believe that the Clarets' improvement is real, which I do, then part of that owes to a skewed schedule in which most of the league's elite visited Turf Moor early in the season.

Burnley vs. Newcastle United
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET

I have been with Burnley over the last few weeks as soon as I saw Vincent Kompany make some bold decisions.

The Belgian changed his side’s long-ingrained style to romp the Championship last season. Switching from an aggressive, in-your-face, no-nonsense approach to a beautiful-to-watch style that drew plaudits every week.

This season, he probably needed a hybrid approach, but certainly to make Turf Moor a tough place to visit, which it hasn’t been until recently. They are unbeaten in their last three home games, which doesn’t sound too much of a big deal, but it is for a side with the joint worst points tally in the division.

The Clarets are playing a bit uglier again, and it’s working. They have only been beaten once in their last eight games. I think they can extend that good run here against Newcastle.

Eddie Howe’s men have the worst road record of those teams in the top half. Only Sheffield United, Luton and Nottingham Forest have picked up fewer than their 14 points away from home this season, winning just four times.

There is no side in the Premier League with such a contrast between playing at home and playing away. They have won just one of their last six road games across all competitions. Last time out, they were lucky to escape with a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace after being totally outplayed.

At this time of year, we talk about need and desire to win soccer matches. I make Burnley’s greater here with Newcastle’s only target to finish in a European qualification place, which I think their home form will get them.

I expect Burnley to get something from this – a draw or better wins our bet – and in doing so, really shake up that relegation battle.

EPL Best Bet: Burnley +0.5 Asian Handicap at -110.

Nottingham Forest will try to avoid being dragged into the drop zone with already relegated Sheffield United when it visits Bramall Lane on Saturday.

Forest enters the weekend in control of its survival fate with three matches to play. But that could change quickly with a defeat after beginning the matchday only one point in front of Luton and two ahead of Burnley.

The Blades were officially eliminated from contention with last weekend's 5-1 thumping at Newcastle United. And this will easily be their best chance to earn a fourth victory before dropping back down to the League Championship, with a trip to Everton and home clash against Tottenham to follow in the final two fixtures.

Forest earned a 2-1 win in the teams' previous meeting back on Matchday 2, a game that included neither current manager.

It's hard to know what else to say about the Blades' defensive woes this season.

Their 97 goals conceded is the second-highest total in Premier League history, despite the fact Chris Wilder's squad has three games still to play. They've conceded multiple goals in nine consecutive league games, kept only one clean sheet in the league all season, and now hit a new season low by conceding four or more in three straight matches.

What has to be most frustrating for Wilder since he's taken the reins is that his team has made very real, if not enormous, improvements in attack, but can't translate it to points in part because they're always conceding more goals than they should.

The xG models suggest those foes are scoring an additional three goals per every four games than xG models predict. Whereas in attack, their 34 goals scored is almost identical to their xG number, with 23 of those coming in the 20 games since the Blades re-hired Wilder and parted with Paul Heckingbottom.

Ben Brereton Díaz deserves better, with his indisputable positive influence on the front line resulting in frustratingly little improvement in outcomes. Since he arrived at Bramall Lane this winter, his team has scored in nine of his 11 starts, and scored twice in six of those 11. They've won zero of those matches.

Meanwhile, Nuno Espírito Santo's Forest has been beset by an inability to turn chances into goals at the worst possible time.

The Trees have either matched or exceeded their opponents in xG created in each of their last four matches, and have only point to show for it. That run combined with a four-point deduction for violating Financial Fair Play violations has Forest inching back toward the drop zone and its own potential return to the League Championship two years following its promotion.

One of the problems has been a continued lack of a secondary goal-scoring threat. Chris Wood's 12 goals while deputizing for oft-injured Taiwo Awoniyi have exceeded expectations. But the former Newcastle man hasn't scored in three games, and his teammates have combined for only four goals in Forest's last nine.

That's just not enough to overcome the Trees' own defensive struggles, which are significant despite not being at the level of Sheffield United's. Their 62 goals conceded are about 14 more than the prediction of the xG model, the second-largest such deficit in the league behind the Blades' 28-goal chasm.

Of note to American fans, attacking midfielder Gio Reyna has made only two starts since his loan move to Espírito Santo's squad, and was the first player removed in a 2-0 defeat at Everton two games ago that helped the Toffees in their pursuit of safety.

It's strange to say, but Sheffield United has the more reliable attack at the moment. That doesn't necessarily mean they are the more likely team to win. But there is a reliability about what Brereton Díaz, Ollie McBurnie and Cameron Archer offer.

If they earn a rare result, most likely it's of the 2-2 or 2-1 variety. If they don't, they'll probably be conceding three or more.

Perhaps you could argue there's a danger in a letdown following their relegation confirmation. But that was a formality for some time, and the front group is talented enough that they should believe they can attract interest from other top-flight sides this summer, if that's what they want.

Meanwhile, Forest has scored only five goals in eight away matches against current bottom-half sides. The Blades are a special case in their defensive liabilities, but even so, that track record isn't worth taking a chance on at a very steep price for a visiting team.

The key to betting on this match is working out the motivation for Sheffield United. Their relegation was finally confirmed last weekend with another heavy defeat at Newcastle United, so all they have left to play for is what is left of their pride.

Those who make the markets clearly think the Blades have zero motivation. However, I disagree slightly. Their manager, Chris Wilder, is a Sheffield United fan, so he will want his players to show some fight and pride for the badge.

Most of his squad will still be with the club come the first game of the Championship season in August. At which time, they will undoubtedly be kicking off as one of the favorites to win promotion back to the Premier League. Those players will be given the opportunity over the next three games to show they can be part of that campaign and to give the supporters hope for a better season ahead.

As for Nottingham Forest, I don’t think they have done themselves any favors with soccer fans after their antics of the last couple of weeks, posting complaints about refereeing as well as accusing an official of cheating to benefit the club he supports. Every team has had decisions go against them over the course of a campaign so their behavior will have neutrals asking, “Who do Forest think they are?”

Looking at the current form, Nuno Espirito Santo has seen his side win just one of their last 11 matches and two of the last 20 games across all competitions. That is exactly the same record as Sheffield United, yet the visitors are priced at -155 to win the match. Crazy!

By some distance, that is the shortest moneyline price Forest have been for a road match in the two seasons they have been back in the Premier League. In fact, it is the first time they have even been quoted at minus money.

All this for a side that have two wins in 17 attempts on the road this season and had only one win in the 19 away fixtures last term. A combined three victories in 36 road games at a price that is the same as when Aston Villa and Brighton visited Bramall Lane in February.

I am stunned by that price, and I simply must go against it. Yes, Sheffield United are the worst side seen in the top-flight for many years but they are not the sort of team that will roll over. The visitors will not rock up here and have it all their own way.

Those three wins were 1-0 defeats of Southampton (who ended up getting relegated) and Chelsea, plus a shock 3-1 victory at injury-ravaged Newcastle. This means they have covered the -1 Asian Handicap just once in their 36 games away from home since returning to the Premier League. That is the bet I am taking here.

Sheffield United +1 at -130. If, and it is a big if, Forest takes the lead then they will retreat and look to take what they have. A win is all that matters to them and even if they do that by a single goal, we will get our stake back. A draw or better for the hosts and it is a full win at a great price for an EPL best bet.

EPL Best Bet: Sheffield United +1 Asian Handicap at -130.

The new Brasileiro season is only four rounds old, but Botafogo are already making an early impression. The Rio de Janeiro club top the embryonic table following a W3-D0-L1 return, notching 10 goals in the process, with many Brazilian pundits suggesting Fogo have the quality to challenge for title honours in 2024.

The club spent €2m to bring-in highly-rated Braga coach Arthur Jorge in April and the managerial move has certainly gotten off to a promising start. A couple of tactical tweaks in both boxes appears to have given the group lift-off with the likes of Jefferson Savarino, Tiquinho Soares and Danilo Barbosa all impressing as Botafogo showcase their potential.

Last time out, Fogo produced a statement performance to overcome city rivals and ante-post favourites Flamengo 2-0 at the Maracana without conceding a single shot on-target, again highlighting the strides made under Jorge’s leadership. Now returning to their Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos home, O Glorioso will be eager to continue their renaissance.

Botafogo dominated Juventude in their last home outing and a repeat of those standards should prove too much for Bahia on Sunday night. The visitors opened their account with eye-catching victories over Fluminense and Gremio on home soil but have since faltered on their travels, losing 2-1 at Internacional before a 2-2 draw at newly-promoted Vitoria.

Bahia have given up 30 shots in those two away Brasileiro battles, 17 on-target efforts and close to four Expected Goals (xG). It also means, across all competitions, the visitors have now shipped multiple goals in five successive games as guests this term, whilst posting 13 league losses in their last 21 away games, failing to even score on 11 occasions.

Botafogo’s solid start to 2024 is already attracting interest and the home side are well worth supporting to succeed

Botafogo -0.5 in Botafogo vs Bahia

Atletico Madrid’s top-four claims were strengthened last weekend as Los Colchoneros overcame Athletic 3-1 at the Metropolitano. Diego Simeone’s men now boast a significant six-point cushion above the Basques with five games to play as they bid to secure another season of Champions League football in 2024/25.

Atletico’s campaign has been built upon their road solid home record – no La Liga side has earned more points in front of their own supporters this season. However, the capital club just cannot be trusted outside of Madrid – Simeone’s side have tabled only five away league triumphs this term, falling to defeats in exactly half of their 16 games as guests.

So quotes of 2.18 on Atletico ahead of their trip to Mallorca on Saturday make little appeal despite the hosts being embroiled in the scrap for survival. The visitors have proven unreliable short-priced away favourites having already been downed in four of their eight trips to teams in 12th and below. I’m therefore happy to oppose Atleti here.

Mallorca are a physical outfit that tend to produce their best in Palma. Javier Aguirre’s uncompromising group has enjoyed unsettling the big guns on the island and won’t hesitate to engage in an arm-wrestle. With top-flight survival still very much in the offing, expect the home side to make life uncomfortable for Atletico here – Mallorca +0.50 appeals at 1.81.

Real Madrid only escaped Son Moix with a 1-0 victory, Barcelona were held here 2-2, Girona suffered a 1-0 reverse and Athletic played out a goalless draw here – last season, both Real and Atleti were beaten by the same 1-0 scoreline, whilst the reverse encounter between Simeone’s side and Mallorca at the Metropolitano ended 0-0, highlighting the hosts’ threat.

Real Mallorca +0.5 in Real Mallorca vs Atletico Madrid

In the reverse fixture in late September — a 2-1 Wolves win — Pep Guardiola was absent from the touchline, sitting in the directors' box with Txiki Begiristain as he was recovering from back surgery. On Saturday, the Manchester City boss will be back at pitch-level while his counterpart, Gary O'Neil, watches on from the stands, serving a one-match suspension for yellow card accumulation.

The last time Wolves beat Manchester City in their first meeting of a league campaign, they went on to win the second contest as well. In the 2019/20 season, the Midlands side bested the Cityzens at the Etihad through an Adama Traore brace and then came back from 2-0 down at the Molineux to claim all three points.

It's unlikely Wolves will be able to repeat the same feat of doing the double over the reigning champions — they're currently +2700 to win tomorrow — but there are other betting angles that can be exploited in this one.

It's pretty simple for City. Win their last four matches and they will lift their fourth-consecutive Premier League title. They're basically at full-strength now, with Erling Haaland available to start and the pair of Phil Foden and Ruben Dias recovered from illness that kept them out of last weekend's trip to Nottingham Forest — the Cityzens prevailed 2-0. The only injured first-team player is Ederson, but Guardiola has said he's close to returning as well, and there's probably not a better deputy goalkeeper in world football than Stefan Ortega, so City are fine between the posts.

While they did lose to Wolves earlier in the year, it's difficult to read too much into that result because of the way City lined up. It's almost a guarantee Guardiola won't deploy Mateo Kovacic as the pivot in a 3-1-5-1 in-possession shape again, and Julian Alvarez is unlikely to have a spot in the starting XI either. Rodri will put in a much better showing than Kovacic, and, it's not a knock on Alvarez, but Kevin De Bruyne is Kevin De Bruyne. It's also important to note, City are currently on their longest league unbeaten run in club history, and on top of that Rodri has played 70 matches in a row without defeat. In other words, Rodri is critical to his team's success, and that team is one of the best in the world.

Having written about Wolves a few times previously in the last month or so, I feel like every time I've said something along the lines of "it's been a tough run for Wolves, but injuries haven't helped, and they're getting guys back," and someone else gets hurt and they lose again. I understand that makes what I'm about to say hard to believe, but they might actually be out of the woods with regards to injuries now, I promise.

Coming off a 2-1 home win against Luton, O'Neil and co. appear to have gotten a boost in terms of squad depth this week, with Pedro Neto and Santiago Bueno fit enough to play. Jean-Ricner Bellgarde supposedly will also be a part of the matchday squad, so that just leaves Craig Dawson as the only major absence. Neto's contributions in particular will be crucial to Wolves' success in this one, as his team will be sitting deep in a 5-3-2/5-4-1 block, and he provides ball-carrying and off-ball runs that no one else in this team can. Against a team that will have spells of sustained pressure and dominate territory, Wolves' ability to threaten in transition is going to determine how their match goes. Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha are capable of achieving that themselves, but Neto is THE guy, and even just a 30-minute cameo off the bench from him could be crucial.

We've seen it time and time again this season: Manchester City aren't as sturdy in defensive transitions this season as they have been in previous campaigns. Even last weekend, where they kept a clean sheet, Chris Wood should've found the back of the net multiple times from those situations for Nottingham Forest. Wolves have the pace and ball-carrying ability to create chances on the break, especially if and when Neto is on the pitch.

Whether they'll be able to keep City out at the other end is a completely different story

Manchester City haven't lost a match in any competition since Dec. 6 against Aston Villa, but the cracks have shown up in the defense for good parts of the last month. City are inflated across the board for this match due to the must win tax as they chase a fourth straight Premier League title, and the best way to play against those overvalued prices is via Wolves' team totals.

Wolves have been a pesky underdog all season long in the league. They scored at Arsenal, beat Chelsea and Spurs twice, tied Aston Villa and scored against Liverpool in the opening stages of that match. Gary O’Neil’s side is still without Pedro Neto, but the injury crisis that plagued them for most of March and April is over now that Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha are back amongst the key attackers.

City conceded more than one xG to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi final. They allowed two at Nottingham Forest last weekend and conceded four across two legs to Real Madrid. The pressing numbers are down, they’re allowing more in transition and the defense is legitimately vulnerable right now. City could just squash everyone en route to a league title, but they are much more likely to need to outscore everyone. As a result, I’d bet Wolves to score a goal at anything plus money.

When Man City is at full strength & on a mission, hard to top , knowing they need all 3 points after the Arsenal win. Haaland with the 1H Hat Trick

Straight Wager 602255187: Soccer Manchester City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - First Half Handicap: Manchester City -1.5 +141

Haaland with his 4th of the day
GL

Chelsea look to make it two wins in a row when they take on West Ham in a London Derby.

The Blues got a much needed 2-0 win over Tottenham on Thursday to keep their hopes of a top six finish alive. It's been a difficult season for Mauricio Pochettino, who is likely going to be out at the end of the season, but Chelsea have shown some real signs of improvement in recent weeks.

West Ham's hopes of finishing in the top seven and getting back into Europe are fleeting by the week. The Hammers are coming off a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, but they have only won one match in their last nine in all competitions. They need all three points here, so don't be surprised to see them very aggressive and having a go at this match.

Chelsea have a clear weakness defensively and that is defending in transition, which is a massive problem here against West Ham given their style of play. As you've seen in recent matches against Tottenham and Manchester City that when the Blues are able to sit in a low defensive block and play in transition, they are a much better team.

With that being said, they have been pretty effective at breaking down low blocks recently and all has to do with their main man Cole Palmer, who is in the form of his life. Palmer has now scored 20 goals this season, but it's not just his ability to put the ball in the back of the net, it's his ability as Chelsea's main playmaker, dropping deeper in build up to pull defenders with him to create space for the rest of Chelsea's attackers that makes him so valuable. For the season, he has a 1.01 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is third in the Premier League.

The Chelsea attack recently has been really good recently because they've been more aggressive in possession combined with Palmer being on fire. Since the beginning of February, the Blues are averaging 2.08 xG per 90 minutes, which is top five in the Premier League.

Chelsea are dealing with a lot of injuries to their midfield and back line. Enzo Fernandez, Malo Gusto, Thiago Siliva, Ben Chillwell and Levi Colwil are all going to miss this match, which is a big problem when you are trying to defend the attacking talent that West Ham have. To make matters worse, over their last 12 matches, Chelsea are allowing 1.95 xG per 90 minutes.

West Ham have been a bit fortunate to be in the position that they are in the table. The Hammers have 49 points on the season, but based on Understat's expected points metric they should only have 38.1 points.

The main reason they have over-performed so much is because of their offense. West Ham have been so good at capitalizing on the few transition opportunities they get a match. They have been basically been playing without a true striker because Jarrod Bowen has been in amazing form all season long.

West Ham are a team that will play a low block and then counter from deep. They have the ball carriers like Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen to be able to punish anybody in transition. Since February 26th, West Ham have only been held under one expected goal in two Premier League matches and are averaging 1.46 xG per 90 minutes.

The problem for West Ham always has been they are terrible sitting in a low defensive block. The Hammers are allowing the most box entries of anyone in the Premier League, the most progressive passes and dribbles and the second highest xThreat. They are allowing 2.28 xG per 90 minutes in 2024, which if it wasn’t for Luton Town would be the highest in the Premier League.

This match really sets up for a back and forth type of encounters. The position that West Ham are in does not afford them to just sit deep here for all 90 minutes and even if they do, they have proven themselves to be ineffective at playing a low block, so Chelsea should have plenty of chances.

The flip side is Chelsea have struggled all season long defending in transition, as they rank 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate, and have been conceding a ton chances recently via direct attacks. Plus, the injury situation is pretty dire at the moment, so West Ham should have plenty of chances themselves.

Over 3.5

Premier League Stakes Are High

This match is crucial for both teams, with Chelsea looking to redeem themselves after their earlier loss to West Ham and both teams eager to climb the Premier League standings. A win for Chelsea could be a significant step in regaining their form and confidence, whereas West Ham aims to prove their previous victory was no fluke.

This match really sets up for a back and forth type of encounters. The position that West Ham are in does not afford them to just sit deep here for all 90 minutes and even if they do, they have proven themselves to be ineffective at playing a low block, so Chelsea should have plenty of chances.
Over 3.5

Chelsea 4-0 at 48th

STRAIGHT BET
[200113] TOTAL o3½-110
(WEST HAM vrs CHELSEA)