Here we go with another action packed week !
GL

It's not the semifinal everyone expected, but Bayern Munich and Real Madrid square off in Germany to see who will get the upper hand in the first leg of the Champions League semifinals.

Bayern closed out Arsenal in the quarterfinals in what some saw as a pretty massive upset given their situation. Thomas Tuchel is out at the end of the season no matter what happens and Bayer Leverkusen have already clinched the Bundesliga title, so the Champions League is all they have left to play for.

The Kings of Europe downed the defending champs on penalties to reach the semifinals once again. After beating Barcelona in El Clasico last weekend they have all but secured the La Liga title. They downed Bayern Munich in the semifinals of the 2017-18 Champions League and will be looking to do the same, as they are now the favorites to win the Champions League.

Bayern Munich were actually really impressive in the second leg against Arsenal with what they were able to do out of possession. They held the Gunners to 0.4 xG mainly because they did not try to press Arsenal high. Instead they sat in a mid-block, denied any passes going through the middle of the pitch and forced Arsenal to beat them from out wide, which is a gameplan they can repeat here against Real Madrid.

One thing about Thomas Tuchel is true – when he spots a weakness with the opposing team he will hammer it over and over again. Against Arsenal, he used Guerreiro and Mazraoui on the left side of the pitch to not only give them a little bit of defensive cover against Saka, and he was also able to use them along with Musiala to create wide overloads to create chances via crosses, which is how they ultimately scored the winning goal.

The interesting story of Bayern Munich's season is they lead Europe's Big Five leagues in expected goal differential, but before their two leg-tie with Arsenal, they have faltered in some of their bigger games domestically. Most notably, their 3-0 loss at Leverkusen and what was interesting about that match is Leverkusen switched to a 5-3-2, let Bayern Munich have the ball and punished them in transition, which has been a weakness for Bayern.

I would find it very hard to believe that Tuchel is going to approach this tie trying to control a large share of the possession and instead maybe hand Real Madrid the ball play an active mid-block like they did against Arsenal with so much success.

What we know about Real Madrid is they are a much better team without the ball than and playing in transition, so the matchup against Manchester City was a pretty good one for them. Bayern have now shown us that they can play without a majority of the ball and be successful, so it will be very interesting to see who holds a majority of the possession in this match.

What Real Madrid do out of possession is going to be very interesting because it was easy to just hand Manchester City the ball and play on the break, but they were pretty fortunate not to concede in the second leg, as they allowed City to take 33 shots and create 2.7 expected goals. If they do the same thing and play very passively against a Bayern Munich team that has technical and ruthless finishers all over the pitch, it’s going to be really tough to see how they don’t concede a lot of chances.

The other aspect is, Real Madrid are not a good pressing team. It’s been a major weakness under Ancelotti, so game state is going to have a big effect on this tie. They tried to press Barcelona in El Clasico last weekend and it was a complete disaster because they don’t commit the fullbacks to the press, so it often leaves space out wide, which is something Tuchel knows and will try to exploit time and time again if Real Madrid decide to press at all.

This situation for Bayern Munich is a weird one. We don't normally see a team with a lame duck coach that has essentially already been fired make it to the semi finals. But, what Bayern showed against Arsenal is they have not quit on this season. They even have been in fine form in the Bundesliga, winning three straight matches and scoring nine goals in the process.

Bayern Munich to advance to the final at +162

Most bet (tickets) Bayern-Real Madrid props at BetMGM

1. Over 2.5 goals (-165)

2. Both teams to score (Yes -190)

3. Harry Kane to score anytime goal (+100)

4. Over 9.5 corners (-120)

Borussia Dortmund entered the Champions League group stage in September with the worst odds to advance from the group of death after being paired with PSG, Newcastle and AC Milan. Not only did Dortmund win the group, but the German side has progressed past PSV and upset Atlético Madrid en route to the semifinal despite mediocre underlying numbers in the Bundesliga and a likely fifth place finish in Germany.

It's clear over the course of their entire season that this version of Dortmund is rated lower by results, underlying stats and even the betting markets. That hasn't stopped them from winning the group of death and coming from behind to beat Atlético in a thrilling 4-2 second leg victory in Dortmund two weeks ago.

Dortmund are once again an underdog in the semifinal and is still the clear long shot to win this competition. Next up for them is PSG, who rallied in Spain against 10-man Barcelona to win 4-1 and advance to the semifinal in Kylian Mbappé's swan song with the club. PSG are a solid -275 favorite to reach the final and the group stage meetings between these two sides show why.

Borussia Dortmund had an established baseline in Germany for a significant period where they had rising superstars Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho and Jude Bellingham and performed as the consistently second-best team in the Bundesliga. If you compare the talent on those teams of the past — which never made it past the CL quarterfinals — it's wild to see that this version of Dortmund is the one reaching the semifinal. Some of it is the good fortune of the draw — Dortmund were the eighth power rated team by the market entering the quarterfinal and then drew seventh-best Atlético Madrid. A lot of it is good finishing variance. First, here is Dortmund's xG difference per 90 minutes in their own domestic league in the last five seasons.

xG difference per 90 minutes in the Bundesliga

2019-20: +0.59
2020-21: +0.72
2021-22: +0.52
2022-23: +0.82
2023-24: +0.31

This version of Dortmund is the worst both defensively and in attack. Dortmund have never been known for their defensive solidity and consistency, but it's stunning to see them all the way down at ninth in expected goals allowed. The attack is notorious for its explosiveness and goal scoring, yet Dortmund are fifth in goals and fifth in expected goals.

Dortmund have played 10 matches in the Champions League, two each against Newcastle, Milan, PSG, PSV Eindhoven and Atlético Madrid. It is by far the toughest schedule anyone has played in Europe this year, but Dortmund have also lost the expected goals in eight of their 10 matches. Newcastle home and away the only two matches where they statistically outplayed their opponent over the full 90 minutes.

One major reason Dortmund have made it this far is goalkeeping. Gregor Kobel has started nine of the 10 matches and he's saved 5.6 goals over expected. It's almost a full goal more than every other keeper in the competition — Nick Pope was second-best at +4.7 in six matches.

Kobel's shot stopping has almost always been plus relative to average, but this seems to be more of an outlier given how extreme the variance has gone in favor of Dortmund's defense. The rest of the defensive profile is alarming — they've allowed the sixth-most box touches per match and seventh-highest average xG per shot of the 32 teams that entered this competition. Kobel will need to be at his best to overcome Dortmund's defensive issues on Wednesday.

PSG and Dortmund had four common opponents in the Champions League group stage this year (plus two against each other), which is a small sample but a good way to compare the two clubs relative strength against one another. PSG had a +1.13 xG difference per match in those six contests, while Dortmund were -0.43. Dortmund created next to nothing in Paris in the first matchup as PSG won 2-0 (xG 2.4-0.7) and PSG's territorial dominance of that match was even greater than the final score and shot total stats would suggest.

The second meeting between the two clubs was a more end-to-end matchup with both teams finding success in transition against the other's porous midfield ball stopping. Dortmund totaled 1.4 xG on 10 shots and PSG managed 2.8 xG on 18 shots.

PSG's Ligue 1 numbers are always a bit difficult to extrapolate into European play, but the defensive fragility shows up in those numbers immediately. PSG have conceded 36.2 expected goals in France, which is just fifth-best in that division. The attack has dominated the league and they've clinched the Ligue 1 title already, but the defense hasn't held up well overall. It's the main reason to be skeptical of their chances of getting picked off as a favorite here.

The first leg of the Champions League knockout matches have generally been lower-event since the away goals rule was changed ahead of the 2021-22 season. Both of PSG's first legs against Real Sociedad and Barcelona were anything but cagey and low event though.

PSG have constant opportunities to play on the break and get the ball to its elite playmakers in space. The midfield lacks an ability to keep control of matches as currently constructed, and Enrique has sacrificed some control in favor of higher-event matches. Given the fragility of Dortmund's defense in transition, it's a prime opportunity for a fit Ousmane Dembélé and Mbappé to torch Dortmund's poor wide defense and put a ton of pressure on the center backs and Kobel.

PSG-Dortmund Semifinals betting at BetMGM

PSG open +100, now +135
▪️ 55% of bets, 68% of money on PSG

Tie open +300, now +270
▪️ 19% of bets, 13% of money on Tie

BVB open +220, now +180
▪️ 26% of bets, 19% of money on Dortmund

For the second consecutive year, Bayer Leverkusen and Roma will face off in the Europa League semifinals. Roma had an excellent defensive game plan across the two legs last season and won the tie 1-0 on aggregate with a home win in the first leg and posting a goalless draw in the second. Roma led that tie for the final 117 minutes and Leverkusen managed just two total shots with an xG rating of 0.11 or higher. Leverkusen consistently ran into a wall at the edge of the Roma penalty area and never found the breakthrough equalizing goal.

This version of Bayer Leverkusen is a considerably better unit than last year, as Xabi Alonso’s side has won the Bundesliga, is the favorite for the Europa League and has not lost a single match in any competition all year long. Roma don't have José Mourinho anymore — but they remain a quality tournament outfit. Roma have had one of the most difficult paths to this semifinal, beating Feyenoord on penalties before handling both Brighton and AC Milan in the round of 16 and quarterfinals, respectively. Roma continue to be an elite defense with the fourth best underlying xGA in Serie A this season.

The story of Leverkusen’s season has been late goals. They have scored 17 goals after the 88th minute this season, including goals in each of their last three matches to preserve the unbeaten streak. It’s clear that Leverkusen haven't been at their overall best in the last month of the year and the German side is a bit overvalued by the market as a result.

Leverkusen are at their best when teams overcommit to pressing them and they can use their wing backs to overlap and progress the ball through their wide outlets. Roma offer almost no pressing at all out of possession and it’s a vastly different approach than what Alonso’s side normally sees in the Bundesliga.

With a draw being a good result for Leverkusen, and Roma maintaining their excellent defensive metrics, I’l back the Italian side to get a result at -140 or better.

Roma +0.5 (-140)

Atalanta are a really fun team to watch right now with how well they are playing.

Under Gasperini they will consistently build up out of a back three trying to get wide passing triangles against the opponent's press and they do it with a lot of success. Then once they enter the final third they commit a ton of bodies into the attack and have been really good creating chances from wide areas, as they’ve completed the third-most crosses into the penalty area in Serie A.

Atalanta may also have the hottest striker on the planet in Gianlucca Scamacca, who has now scored 15 goals in all competitions in only 20.1 90s and has scored seven goals in his last seven appearances with a lot of them coming via crosses.

Marseille have kind of fallen off defensively and lost their tactical identity under Gasset. That is not necessarily a bad thing, they are just playing more passively in a solid defensive block out of possession and looking to transition more rather than the possession dominant team we saw under Gattuso. Under Gasset they are allowing 1.21 xG per 90 minutes, when under Gattuso they were allowing 1.01 xG per 90 minutes.

Out of possession, Atalanta are a really good defensive team that does the basics really well. A lot of defending and doing it successful simply comes down to winning duels across the pitch and working hard to win the ball. Atalanta led Serie A in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and they are top five in high turnovers forced, which has led them in 2024 to only allowing 1.13 npxG per 90 minutes.

This London derby has been one of the most eventful fixtures in the Premier League recently.

The "Battle of the Bridge" in 2016, where Chelsea denied Spurs the league title, the 2-2 draw at the start of last season, which featured Thomas Tuchel and Antonio Conte getting into a spat on the touchline after full-time and the reverse fixture this campaign all immediately come to mind. With Conte, Mauricio Pochettino and Jose Mourinho all managing both clubs in the last decade, there's been an added element of animosity to these clashes as well.

The first meeting between Chelsea and Tottenham this season was as action-packed as a match can get. The ball must've been in the back of the net at least a dozen times, with less than half of those counting on the scoresheet, and Spurs continuing to keep an extremely high line down two men was one of the most memorable sights this season has delivered. While this edition of one of the great English derbies might not be as wild as some of its predecessors, a natural contrast in styles of the two sides is sure to deliver entertainment.

Chelsea come into this fixture on a slightly higher note than their opponents, but that's not saying a lot. After getting slaughtered by Arsenal at the Emirates, Pochettino and co. were able to salvage a point at Villa Park after going down 2-0 — and it could've been three points had VAR not ruled out Axel Disasi's 95th-minute winner. European qualification is theoretically still possible, but with the longest injury list in the league and a general pattern of inconsistency this season, it seems unlikely.

This campaign has certainly not been kind to the west London club, as they're fifth in the xG table but have not capitalized on the opportunities they've been afforded. Outside of Cole Palmer, pretty much every player has either not met expectations or been injured, or both. Pochettino hasn't been able to figure out his best back four, the double pivot of Enzo Fernandez and Moises Caicedo hasn't been worth half of what the club paid for them — and now Fernandez is out for the season — and their forwards can't string two games of consistent production together. It feels like everyone connected to the club just wants to get these last five fixtures over with and embark on an overhaul in the summer.

Spurs' top-four hopes took another blow over the weekend as they fell 3-2 to Arsenal in the North London Derby. While they do have two games in hand on fourth-placed Aston Villa, they are seven points behind and have Liverpool and Manchester City upcoming on the schedule. If they want to secure Champions League qualification in Ange Postecouglou's first go around, this match is practically must-win, although given it's a derby, that attribute could be applied to the game regardless.

Tottenham have been one of the most entertaining teams in the league this season, although that's become more a result of their porous defense and less due to their attack as the year has gone on. Spurs will commit numbers forward, press and counter-press aggressively and attempt to build attacks from back to front, but on the flip side, that's left them extremely vulnerable to opposing transitions, and their brittle set-piece defending hasn't helped. They certainly can cause Chelsea's defense, which has looked like a sieve at times, problems, but the opposite is just as true, as Chelsea's counterattacking threat will lead to quality chance creation.

Given the natural clash of the two sides' styles and setups and the defensive struggles both have displayed, the over just looks like the obvious pick. Chelsea will get opportunities on the break against a high line, and they might also force a high turnover or two as they'll press Tottenham high, but if and when Spurs break that press, they'll find joy of their own.

The first meeting between these two outfits gave us a glimpse at what 11 v 11 for 90 minutes would look like, and it's certainly not going to be a cagey affair. Before Cristian Romero got sent off after 30 minutes, both teams had put the ball in the net twice — granted, three of those four "goals" were ruled out — and the match was wide open.

Expect similar game dynamics in this contest, which should lead to quite a few goals.