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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the easiest way system. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 13-13 for -5.2 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 at KC), PHILADELPHIA (-198 vs CWS), ATLANTA (-205 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-135 at COL)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 11-8 for +0.19 units, a slower start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-170 at WSH), PLAY PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. BOS)
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04-19-24 11:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Road teams that didnt score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Youre going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1322-1717 (43.5%) for -164.75 units and an R.O.I. of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2948-2584 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.72 units and R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO
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04-19-24 11:08 PM |
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