Back in the Den for another season of the Sharps Report!
The first game of the 2013 regular season is in the books. Now let’s take a look at how Sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting the rest of Week One in the NFL. Note that this week is unique because the opening lines went up WEEKS ago. How Sharps bet the openers over the summer may not reflect their current opinions on games because of quarterback changes or other prominent developments. With that in mind, we’ll focus more on how Sharps have been betting THIS WEEK.

As always, we take the games in rotation order.

NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO:
This line has hopped around based on the quarterback news for the Buffalo Bills. When it looked like Jeff Tuel was going to get the start (an undrafted rookie who didn’t even shine at the college level), the Patriots were as high as -10.5 or -11. Now that E.J. Manuel is reportedly healthy enough to perform (a drafted rookie who the franchise hopes is their QB of the future), the line has settled in around New England -9 or 9.5. Sharps are taking Buffalo at +10 with Manuel. Sharps who thought whoever turned out to be the eventual Bills QB would be in over his head took the Patriots before this week at -7.

TENNESSEE AT PITTSBURGH:
There hasn’t been much interest here. Existing action has been of the tug-of-war variety…with Pittsburgh money coming in at -6.5, and Tennessee money coming in at +7. That’s because seven is a key number and neither team impressed last year or in preseason. Sharps with opinions are playing the percentages or waiting to see if the public drives Pittsburgh above the 7, an unlikely scenario given the fact that they seem equally uninterested in these teams at this line as well.

ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS:
More than a few Sharps are looking at New Orleans as a value team this season, as they get their head coach back with a chip on his shoulder. The Saints are getting respect here at -3 with extra juice of -120 or higher given the fact that Atlanta was a #1 seed last year and just missed going to the Super Bowl. Oddsmakers know Atlanta money would come in at +3.5 with a playoff caliber dog getting more than a field goal. The line will only go that high if squares (the public) come in on the Saints between now and kickoff. Basically, Sharps like New Orleans at -3 with -110 juice, but the value would flip over to the Falcons at +3.5 because field goal finishes are so common in evenly matched NFL games.

TAMPA BAY AT THE NY JETS:
Tampa Bay was hit by Sharps over the summer…which pushed the line to the Bucs -2.5 when it was assumed that Mark Sanchez would be the starting quarterback…or an effective Geno Smith would get the call after winning the job in Preseason. Well, Geno Smith has been horrible…and Sanchez is out with an injury. That’s pushed the line to Tampa Bay -3.5 without any Jets buy back. Some stores are testing Tampa Bay -4 to see if that brings in New York money. Sharps currently consider the Jets to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.

KANSAS CITY AT JACKSONVILLE:
Sharps feel the same way about Jacksonville! And, this is almost a mirror scenario to the game above. Sharps liked Kansas City over the summer as a cheap road favorite because Andy Reid figures to get the Chiefs at least moving in the right direction. The fact that the Jaguars can’t figure out what to do at quarterback (amongst bad choices) encouraged more Chiefs money to come in. Kansas City’s favored by -4, and we’re seeing -4.5 get tested.

CINCINNATI AT CHICAGO:
Not much action here. Chicago is a 3-point favorite in a battle of evenly matched teams. Any move off the key number would get flooded by Sharp money. We’d only see a move if the public comes in hard on the Bears before kickoff. That’s possible because Chicago is a public team when things are going well.

MIAMI AT CLEVELAND:
It’s odd to see a tug-of-war with a price this low. There’s not a key number involved. But, we’re seeing the line flip flop here through the week between pick-em and Cleveland -1. Browns backers are investing at pick-em. Miami money comes in at +1. Sharps(and everyone else it seems) are basically split on the game (and the outlook this year for the teams), and those factions are taking the best price they see.

SEATTLE AT CAROLINA:
Generally speaking, Sharps LOVE Seattle. They pounded them late last year and made big money. They love this defense. They love what they’re seeing from Russell Wilson at quarterback. This game has been over the key number for quite a while now…Carolina is actually reasonably respected in Vegas starting the new season…but the number isn’t moving towards the key number. Seattle -3.5 has been bet up to -4, and -4.5 is being tested. For the time being, Seattle is going to be priced like a Super Bowl team, even if the public is slow to fall in love with them.

MINNESOTA AT DETROIT:
Many in the media have been surprised about the support for Detroit. The Lions opened at -3 but are now -5 in most places. How can that be if Minnesota was a playoff team last year and Detroit missed by a mile? S
Sharps believe Detroit is in for a big bounce back in 2013 after turnovers and other bad luck ruined 2012. Sharps are also skeptical of Minnesota catching breaks two years in a row. This line is telling you Sharps have the Lions two points better in their Power Ratings, regardless of what last year looked like.

OAKLAND AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Indianapolis was favored by -7 or-7.5 for much of the summer. The quarterback developments in Oakland have put the Raiders on the short list of “worst teams to bet” along with the NY Jets and Jacksonville. Terrelle Pryor will get the start for Oakland. Sharps don’t have much faith in him, or Matt Flynn. The line is now up to -10 in many places. We are seeing some Sharps take shots at the Raiders at +10 or +10.5. As we’ve said in past seasons, many “old school” guys will take double digits in any NFL game on principle. The math guys tend to favor the Colts up to and including -10. Will the public back the Colts on game day?

ARIZONA AT ST. LOUIS:
The Rams were -6 at home during the summer, getting respect off a better-than-realized 2012 that had them holding their own against the toughest schedule in the league. But, Arizona was more competitive than Sharps had expected during the Preseason, with a new head coach and new starting quarterback. That led the Wise Guys to bet Arizona at +6, +5.5, and at +5. We’re now seeing St. Louis by 4.5 in most places.

GREEN BAY AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The 49ers opened at -5.5 over the summer, getting respect as the defending NFC champions. They didn’t exactly set the world on fire during the Preseason though. That led many Sharps to take the Packers at +5.5 and at +5 assuming a “Super Bowl Letdown” may be in order even though the Niners didn’t win the trophy. Green Bay has revenge on their minds from a playoff loss on this field, and a regular season loss in Week One last year to the Niners at Lambeau.

NY GIANTS AT DALLAS:
This line opened at Dallas -3. We’ve told you often that it takes a lot of money to move a game off the three. Well, that money HAS been coming in on Dallas. Sharps have soured on the NY Giants based on how poorly they ended last year and how sluggish they were in the Preseason. Dallas is seen as similar to Detroit…meaning a team poised for a bounce back if turnover luck turns around. Sharps bet Dallas aggressively at -3, and…most importantly…didn’t buy the Giants back at +3.5.



MONDAY

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON:
Interesting game here…and there’s plenty of time between now and kickoff for it to get even more interesting! The summer line was Washington -5, on the assumption that RGIII would be back, and that the Eagles would struggle to adjust to a new head coach. There are concerns about RGIII truly being ready…while the Eagles seemed to move the ball very well in the Preseason…which brought the line down to as low as Washington -3. This week Sharps have been hitting the Redskins without buying back on the Eagles at +3.5…suggesting that Sharps have “settled” on Washington -3 as the best way to play this one given all the indicators. Sharp groups are watching the Eagles closely on the assumption that they could take the NFC by storm if they can play clean football in this up-tempo offense.

HOUSTON AT SAN DIEGO:
Another game that opened at favorite -3 (Houston in this case) in a city where it takes a lot of money to move off a three…and that money did come in on the favorite with no buy back. San Diego’s offense struggled badly in the Preseason for the most part. Houston is a playoff team with a history of taking care of business vs. poor opponents. Sharps like Houston at -3, and didn’t buy back on San Diego +3.5. We may see this line move to Houston -4 or -4.5 by kickoff Monday.
Best of luck this season to all in the Den!!!

Thanks for posting buddy
Great to see you back

As always, dwight007, thank you for your excellent report ...

Good stuff.