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dld3151
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 2842
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I played the Iron Dogs all of last year (December 2010 through March 2011) and, as always, I kept daily records. I'm not looking for patterns, but I want to know where the bankroll is at all times. Last season, the largest downturn before a bounce back kicked in was about 6 units. There were two of those last season -- one in December after a huge gain to open the season, and another at the end of the season to take the overall profit from +52 units to +46. There have been two similar downturns this season -- one slightly less than 7 units in October, then the one of a bit less than 6 units last night. It's interesting to note that the Dogs finished October at +10 units despite that early downturn.
From what I've experienced, I do believe the Iron Dogs to be about a 50-50 proposition over time (meaning over the course of an entire season). Given about 420 plays per season (an average of 70 plays a month over a six-month season) and an average price of about +130, Sawyer's goal of about +50 units is very reasonable. The over-under units are gravy as far as I'm concerned.
My approach is to start out playing each game at 2.5 percent of beginning bankroll. That gives me 40 units to work with, which I consider a safe level. Then, I will increase my per-game bet size after a 50-percent bankroll increase. After a 50-percent increase, I reset the bankroll at its new level and begin wagering at 2.5 percent of that amount until I have another 50-percent increase. That means bumping up the bet size after each gain of 20 units (20 units x 2.5 percent of BR = 50 percent gain).
The only time I would ever decrease my per-game bet size is if the bankroll dwindles all the way down to the amount I began the season with. That has never happened with this method. If I were wagering 5-10 percent of BR per game, it very likely would happen eventually. But, I've learned a few hard lessons over the past 30 years. There is a lot of protection with 40+ units at your disposal, but very little protection with 20 units. If you're playing at 5 percent of BR, you've got 20 units to work with (18 units if you're laying -110). That may sound like plenty. But what happens if you have a 10-unit drop? Suddenly, the idea of placing any more wagers isn't very appealing. Scared money never wins. It's so much better to have 40 (or even 50) units on your side! So, I'll keep 40 units on deposit and have another 10 units sitting in the bank.
Based on my experience with the Iron Dogs, plus doing roughly an equal number of college hoops plays over the past two years, the average monthly increase has been slightly below 20 units -- or just under 50 percent.
I went into Thursday night's games with a bankroll gain of +86.4 percent this NHL and college hoops season. That's very close to doubling the bankroll, with the huge majority of the season to go.
Then the 1-7 (or 1-8 with the O/U play) hit. But I'm still up +52.2 percent for the season and ready for another climb. It may start tonight, or it may start next week. It could happen quickly, or it may take a while. There's no way to really know.
Sorry if this was a bit long-winded. But play it steady and at a safe level, and you'll be in good shape by season's end.
BOL tonight, Sawyer!
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12-10-11 12:26 AM |
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JDilla2380
Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 132
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It's been a painful couple of days. Good to see those totals still doing ok.
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12-11-11 06:04 AM |
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JDilla2380
Registered: Jun 2011
Posts: 132
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Damn. Looks like a 1-2 night at best right now. Was there a stretch this bad last year? It seems like nothing is going right.
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12-12-11 02:51 AM |
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