Guys, Do You Know Your Real Enemy?

LVSC? Bookie? Betting Public? Brandon Lang? IRS?

No.

It's YOU!

That's right.

In sports betting, your biggest enemy is yourself.

Emotions..enemy.
Greed..is your enemy.



These are dangerous feelings. May destroy your bankroll even in one day..

I don't say it's an universal truth, it's just my opinion. There may be cappers who are doing fine with gutfeeling, but not me.

In my opinion,

You should BET LIKE A ROBOT!

That's right. Zero emotions. Betting like a robot.



Hi. My name is R2D2. Pick Ottawa tonight.

A friend of mine says he got 2 bets for today. Fine. He goes 0-2 and he places a wager on 10 AM baseball game. WTF? If you were 2-0, would you still make this bet? No, he says. Don't chase your loses. Don't try to get breakeven for the day. There may be much better games tomorrow.

Guys, sports betting is a tough job if you're capping games with gutfeeling.

Why I like betting like a robot?

Because you avoid all emotions.

Maybe, you discussed with your wife and you're not in a good mood. You had a bad day at office. Maybe you lost your cat/dog. You learned Becky Hammon is married (hopefully not).

These things may effect your mind. These things may effect your handicapping, your decisions.

But if your selections are based on a system/handicapping model (or some rules), these "bad" things won't matter. They won't effect your picks..

Let the numbers do the work.

Some people say "systems" don't work over the long haul. They say there isn't any system that works over the long haul.

I guess they don't know Cisco, Hookem22&Houstonfan, lol.

Hookem22&Houstonfan's Simple Home Chase system is making $$$ every season. Cisco's chase systems produced +261.43 units this year.

The best thing about following a system is, you never ask yourself which bet you should take. All picks are clear. Let's say you're capping games and making your selections with gutfeeling, because you liked it, because Halladay is invincible etc. You like 6 games on board. But you don't feel too confident (emotions again) about all of them. So you bet 3 of them. You go 1-2. Other 3 picks you didn't picked go 3-0. It happens. The bet you (your leans) didn't picked usually wins, Strange but true. You blame yourself for picking Washington, you say why I didn't picked Boston. Emotions again..

It can be frustrating..specially when you're on a losing streak. We, sports bettors are very streaky in nature. Do you know why? It's related with psychology. During a glorious winning streak, you feel yourself invincible. Positive Energy, Yeah! You make better predictions, better analysis..and you keep winning!

On the other side, when you're on a losing streak, you start to lose your confidence..It effects your decisions, your picks.

After a disastrous streak, you may even don't want to make picks..

Conclusion

Developping a handicapping model or a betting system is not the whole thing. You gotta stick with it! Remember, zero emotions. Believe me, sticking with your system is harder then founding it! Seriously..

Greed is not good. Greed is evil. Patience is golden. Patience is the key. Make sure you got these four elements..

* Patience
* Discipline
* Bankroll
* A Plan (Handicapping Model/System)

And numbers will take care of the rest. I wish you all a profitable season.

Take care,

Sawyer

Good stuff Sawyer. Couldnt agree more.

You're very smart, Sawyer.

Thank You.

Here are some quotes I keep in mind to keep this idea fresh in my head:

It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! Jesse Livermore


It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong. George Soros


Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy. Jack Bogle

This is not a job where you get paid by the hour. You get paid for doing the right thing. Vadym Graifer & Christopher Schumacher

Trading is a game of probabilities. You don’t have to be right every time. You just have to follow your rules. Vadym Graifer & Christopher Schumacher

The only thing I would add is that you need to make sure you are aware of something if you are using a system and something changes which would change the system.

The thought which comes to mind currently is the rule changes in the NFL and how that might affect scoring.

Other than that, I would say that R2-D2 beep-boop-beep-boop's this message.

Well said Bart. Just like a computer, sometimes a system/handicapping model may require some modifications/upgrades too.

For everything in life , your real enemy is yourself

Thank you, Sawyer. I have enemies...but I'm learning not to join 'em.

Couldn't have said it better. Had my best baseball season ever this year making a killing using this approach. I made bets I never thought I'd win (like throwing money away) but they won.

Leave the emotion out and use a good money management approach and you will laugh all the way to the cashier.

With that being said, bring on those iron dogs Sawyer!!

"Well said Bart. Just like a computer, sometimes a system/handicapping model may require some modifications/upgrades too."

Very Good !you sum up the reality !
but there is a problem : when you find a good system that work well for 1 year or more for example and then he fails... without you know why... ok, you must do some modifications, but always do modifications is not very good at all. it's a real problem when it's more often !

i always play some systems since a long time, i stopped all other bets but even with these systems, it's difficult because they unhappily fail one day (some weeks, months or years).

Excellent write up Sawyer.

I will only add that one of my biggest mistakes was myself because I was "looking" for more plays because I like the action instead of just going only with the plays that make the most sense.

P.S. Thanks to TALENTED for the John Bogle quote!

Selectivity is golden. Just pick your best plays and log out..