Nicolas Jarry vs. Alexander Zverev – Rome Final

Zverev was able to get by Alejandro Tabilo in the semifinals, but it was really one of the worst matches the 27-year-old has played in quite some time. He was really passive all throughout the match, seemingly waiting on Tabilo’s level to drop. And Zverev was really fortunate that it finally did late in the second set. Tabilo imploded from there. But Zverev wasn’t taking risks with his forehand in that match, and that was concerning to me. That shot is normally his biggest weakness, but he had been hitting it so well earlier in this event. That leads me to believe that Zverev is having trouble overcoming his nerves. And if he shows up with that same approach against Jarry, he could get blitzed in this final.

Jarry’s 6-3, 6-7 (3), 6-3 win over Tommy Paul last match wasn’t perfect either, as it featured a pretty big choke from the Chilean in the second set. But he was able to recover from that blip and was largely impressive throughout the match. All throughout the tournament, Jarry’s booming first serve and ability to go huge from the forehand side have been there. And overall, his movement on clay is just good enough to give him the rally tolerance he needs to be a threat in longer points. That’s why he has had so much success on the surface in his career.

Overall, I just don’t think it’s fair to expect a lopsided win from Zverev here, especially against a big server like Jarry. There’s a pretty good chance we see a tiebreaker or two in this match, and I’d like Jarry’s chances of coming away with at least one. But I also think there’s a relatively good shot Jarry wins this thing outright. He’s not afraid of the moment and has the weapons required to make Zverev uncomfortable.

Bet: Jarry +1.5 Sets (-120 – 1.5 units) & Jarry ML (+245 – 0.5 units)

PARLAY: Sebastian Baez ML vs. Sumit Nagal [Geneva] + Roberto Carballes Baena +1.5 Sets vs. Daniel Altmaier [Geneva] (-152)