Stallions (-7.5) at Roughnecks
Saturday, 7 PM ET on FOX

Stallions: -395 // 4-0 SU // 3-1 ATS // O/U 1-3
Roughnecks: +310 // 1-3 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 2-2

Total: 42.5 (OV -110, UN -110)

You’re in luck — Because of the Stallions lackluster performance last week, they’re still available +140 to win a 3rd straight spring football championship. This number in my opinion is only going to shrink as the season goes on. That paired with Houston beating Arlington straight up last week is also giving us a slightly lighter spread in Week 5 than we would’ve had otherwise so it’s time to pounce!

The Stallions are the lone undefeated team in the UFL at 4-0 this season, 3-1 ATS. They’ve won 11-straight dating back to last season and I think they win (potentially by double digits) and cover again this week.

A big reason for my confidence level? Adrian Martinez is back under center as the Stallions QB1. Based on the last couple weeks, it looks like Skip Holtz is moving away from the 2QB system in-game & instead giving both Martinez and Matt Corral their own respective games in rotation.

Birmingham had to work for a win last week against DC with Corral starting, but still finished the job with a W complements of a 46-yd FG (shout out UFL kickers btw who continue to deliver this season). While Corral did make some big plays, I think if Martinez was the guy Birmingham would’ve won at margin to cover the big number.

Holtz has heard all the arguments about why he shouldn’t play 2 QBs but he doesn’t care & is sticking to his guns getting both players game tape for the next level.

In Martinez’s last time out against Memphis, he posted nearly 400 yds of total offense and 3TDs. He’s also the 2nd leading rusher in the league right now despite playing just 2.5 games.

Even with both QBs in the rotation, Birmingham has had one of the top offenses in the league (369.8 total yds per game, 25 PPG). They also boast the top defensive unit, ranking #1 in Pts Allowed Per Game, Total Yds Allowed, Rush Yds Allowed, Sacks

Brahmas (-2.5) at Renegades
Saturday, 7 PM ET on FOX

Brahmas -135 // 3-1 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 1-3
Renegades +114 // 0-4 SU // 1-3 ATS // O/U 2-2
Total: 42.5 (OV -110, UN -110)

The defending XFL champs are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS despite closing as favorites each of the last two weeks. The Brahmas, outlasted Michigan 19-9 in Week 4 with Quinton Dormady starting in place of the injured Chase Garbers. Their defense got after the QB collecting 6 sacks against the Panthers, and are coming into this game with some attitude according to offensive coordinator AJ Smith.

Smith was the OC for the Houston Roughnecks last season (SA is basically a revamped version HOU having brought over many of the coaches and players from that team after the merger). The Roughnecks lost to Arlington in the 2023 playoffs and let’s just say Smith and company weren’t particularly pleased with how things shook out.

Smith this week told reporters, “I can’t wait to play Arlington. I’ve had this game circled since they released the schedule. I could care less they’re 0-4, this is still my Super Bowl because of the crap they pulled in the playoffs last year. The fact that we have the opportunity to make them go 0-5 makes it even sweeter. I’ve played this Defensive Coordinator (Jay Hayes) five times going back to 2020. Nothing that they do worries me. We’re going after (LB) Donald Payne, and we can’t wait.”