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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NCAAB Lagniappe 3/28

Clemson vs Arizona (-7.5) (@ Los Angeles)
Clemson (23-11) ranked #23 by KenPom
Tempo: #257
Experience: #26
Continuity: #65
Clemson won its first two NCAA games, scoring 77-73 points.
Clemson is shooting 54.4% inside arc (#38)
Tigers are 12-1 in non-conference games.
Opponents are shooting 46.9% inside arc (#43)
Clemson is 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Tigers are 9-3 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Clemson’s schedule, to this point: #23
bench minutes: #232
Since 1997, Clemson is 0-2 in Sweet 16 games.

Arizona (27-8) ranked #5 by KenPom
Tempo: #16
Experience: #81
Continuity: #211
Arizona won first two NCAA games, scoring 85-78 points.
Wildcats are 11-2 in non-league games.
Arizona has #24 eFG% in country.
Wildcats are a top 5 rebounding team in country.
Arizona is 10-4 against teams in the top 50.
Arizona’s schedule, to this point: #30
bench minutes: #281
Since 2009, Arizona is 3-4 SU in Sweet 16 games.
Since 2019, #2-seeds are 6-4 SU in Sweet 16 games.

This is first time since 2015 that a #2-seed played a #6-seed in this round.
Pac-12 teams are 3-3 SU/ATS vs ACC teams this year.

Old Post 03-27-24 10:28 PM
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San Diego State (-5.5) vs UConn (@ Boston)
San Diego State (26-10) ranked #17 by KenPom
Tempo: #266
Experience: #44
Continuity: #117
San Diego State won four of its last five games.
Aztecs’ last four losses were all by 5 or less points.
Aztecs have #26 eFG% defense in country.
San Diego State is 11-2 in D-I non-conference games.
Aztecs are 7-9 against top 50 teams.
San Diego State’s schedule, to this point: #32
bench minutes: #211
Since 2011, San Diego State is 1-2 in Sweet 16 games.
Since 2005, eight #5-seeds have played in the Sweet 16; underdogs went 8-0 ATS in those games.

UConn (32-3) ranked #1 by KenPom
Tempo: #315
Experience: #69
Continuity: #149
UConn won nine in row, 23 of last 24 games.
Huskies won the national title last year.
UConn has #5 eFG% in country, #5 eFG% defense.
Huskies are #15 team on offensive boards.
Huskies are 13-2 vs teams ranked in top 50.
UConn’s schedule, to this point: #41
bench minutes: #229
Last four times UConn made Sweet 16, they also made Final Four.

UConn (-6.5) beat San Diego State 76-65 in national title game LY.
UConn held Aztecs to 32.2% from the floor.
Mountain West teams are 2-1 SU/ATS vs Big East teams this year.
Last six years, #1-seeds are 6-5-1 ATS in this round.

Old Post 03-27-24 10:28 PM
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Alabama vs North Carolina (-4.5) (@ Los Angeles)
Alabama (23-11) ranked #14 by KenPom
Tempo: #8
Experience: #63
Continuity: #276
Alabama is 3-1 in its last four games.
They gave up 99+ points in four of their last five losses.
Crimson Tide is 10-5 in non-conference games (NC SOS #16).
Alabama has #10 eFG% in country.
Crimson Tide is #26 team on offensive boards.
Opponents are shooting 50.9% inside arc (#209)
Crimson Tide is 5-11 vs teams ranked in top 50.
Alabama’s schedule, to this point: #4
bench minutes: #133
Under Oats, Alabama is 0-2 SU in Sweet 16, losing by 7-10 points.

North Carolina (29-7) ranked #9 by KenPom
Tempo: #41
Experience: #6
Continuity: #179
UNC won 10 of its last 11 games.
Tar Heels are 10-3 in non-conference games.
UNC has #15 eFG% defense in country.
Tar Heels are #6 team in country on defensive boards.
UNC is 9-4 against teams in the top 50.
UNC’s schedule, to this point: #16
bench minutes: #332
Since 2004, UNC is 8-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

This year, SEC teams are 16-12 SU/18-10 ATS vs ACC opponents.
Last six years, #1-seeds are 6-5-1 ATS in this round.
Since 2012, #4-seeds are 10-14-1 ATS in this round.

Old Post 03-27-24 10:30 PM
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Illinois vs Iowa State (-1.5) (@ Boston)
Illinois (28-8) ranked #10 by KenPom
Tempo: #71
Experience: #11
Continuity: #136
Illinois won six in row, nine of last ten games.
Illini is 11-2 in non-league games.
Last four games, Illinois scored 91.3 ppg.
Illini has #31 eFG%, #46 eFG% defense in country.
Illini is 4th-worst team in country at forcing turnovers.
Illinois is 9-6 against teams in the top 50.
Illinois’ schedule, to this point: #33
bench minutes: #238
Last time Illini made Elite 8 was 2001.

Iowa State (29-7) ranked #7 by KenPom
Tempo: #205
Experience: #124
Continuity: #197
Iowa State won 13 of its last 15 games.
Cyclones are 13-2 in non-conference games (NC sked #346).
Cyclones are forcing turnovers 25.5% of time (#2)
Iowa State has #34 eFG% defense in country.
Iowa State is 12-5 against teams in the top 50.
Iowa State’s schedule, to this point: #44
bench minutes: #235
Since 2014, Iowa State is 0-3 SU in Sweet 16 games.

This year, Big X teams are 4-3 SU/ATS vs Big 14 opponents.
Since 2016, #2-seeds are 7-4 ATS vs #3-seeds in this round.

Old Post 03-27-24 10:30 PM
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Updated Sweet 16 betting at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. North Carolina-Alabama
2. UConn-San Diego State
3. Arizona-Clemson

Most bet teams
1. North Carolina -4.5
2. UConn -10.5
3. Clemson +7.5

Most bet teams $
1. North Carolina -4.5
2. UConn -10.5
3. Clemson +7.5

Old Post 03-28-24 07:38 AM
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Thursday, 03/28/2024 (631) ILLINOIS vs. (632) IOWA ST
Favoring: IOWA ST against the spread.
Play Against - An underdog (ILLINOIS) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15+ games
(34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Thursday, 03/28/2024 (631) ILLINOIS vs. (632) IOWA ST
Favoring: IOWA ST against the spread.
Play Against - An underdog (ILLINOIS) - excellent shooting team (>=47.5%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO) vs. an average pressure defense (14.5-17.5 TO) after 15+ games
(34-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.3%, +23 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Old Post 03-28-24 09:46 PM
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Thursday, 03/28/2024 (631) ILLINOIS vs. (632) IOWA ST
Favoring: ILLINOIS on the first half line.
Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (IOWA ST) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season
(60-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.8%, +31.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4 +4.6 units).

Thursday, 03/28/2024 (633) SAN DIEGO ST vs. (634) CONNECTICUT
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
Play On - Neutral Court favorites vs. the 1rst half line (CONNECTICUT) - in a game involving two excellent FT shooting teams (>=73%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better
(46-19 since 1997.) (70.8%, +25.1 units. Rating=2*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).

Old Post 03-28-24 09:47 PM
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Thursday, 03/28/2024 (635) ALABAMA vs. (636) N CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is >=75.5 (ALABAMA) - in a game involving two excellent FT shooting teams (>=73%) after 15+ games
(30-6 since 1997.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).

Thursday, 03/28/2024 (635) ALABAMA vs. (636) N CAROLINA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is >=75.5 (N CAROLINA) - in a game involving two excellent FT shooting teams (>=73%) after 15+ games
(30-6 since 1997.) (83.3%, +23.4 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).

Old Post 03-28-24 09:56 PM
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msudogs
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Most bet (tickets) OVERs in the Sweet 16 at BetMGM

1. San Diego State-UConn 136.5

2. Clemson-Arizona 151.5

3. Illinois-Iowa State 146.5

Old Post 03-28-24 10:00 PM
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Most bet (tickets) underdogs to win in Sweet 16 at BetMGM

1. NC State +230

2. Illinois +100

3. Clemson +250

Old Post 03-28-24 10:00 PM
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Updated Sweet 16 betting data at BetMGM

Most bet games
1. Alabama-North Carolina
2. San Diego State-UConn
3. Clemson-Arizona

Most bet teams
1. North Carolina -4.5
2. UConn -11.5
3. Clemson +7.5

Most bet teams $
1. UConn -11.5
2. North Carolina -4.5
3. Clemson +7.5

Old Post 03-28-24 10:28 PM
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