The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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3:15 p.m. ET: Gonzaga (-4, 152) vs Kansas
This Midwest Region matchup will be played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. Gonzaga (26-7) is the 5-seed and just brushed aside McNeese State 86-65 in the opening round. On the other hand, Kansas (23-10) is the 4-seed and just barely squeaked by Samford 93-89. This line opened with Gonzaga listed as a 4-point neutral site favorite. The line initially rose to Gonzaga -4.5. That’s when pros pounced on Kansas at an inflated price, dropping the Jayhawks down from +4.5 to +4. Several shops are even juicing up Kansas +4 to -115, signaling a possible fall down to +3.5. This Kansas buyback is notable because the public is all over Gonzaga, with 65% of spread bets laying the points with the Zags. Essentially, we are seeing sharp reverse line movement and game day steam on Kansas, with pros buying low on the Jayhawks plus the points. Kansas is one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 35% of spread bets. Kansas has the better defensive efficiency (13th vs 42nd). Ken Pom has Gonzaga winning by two points (77-75), which provides actionable value on Kansas at the current price (+4).
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03-23-24 05:46 PM |
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