• Bettors have not enjoyed a winning second round since 2017, going 21-37-1 ATS (36.2%) in moving opening lines since then. This is a change from the first round, explained perhaps in the shorter prep period for the second round. (FADE LINE MOVES ALL GAMES)

• Second round Top 4 seeds that won but didn’t cover the spread in the first round are 44-16 SU and 33-26-1 ATS (55.9%) since 2013. They are also 34-23-3 Under (59.6%) the total. (ON KANSAS +4, UNDER 151.5 KAN-GON)

• Second-round double-digit favorites are 49-2 SU and 31-20 ATS (60.8%) since 2001. Fifteen of the last 22 such games went Under (68.2%) the total, with the favorites allowing just 60.8 PPG. (CONNECTICUT -14, PURDUE -10.5, ILLINOIS -10 – UNDER 136 CON-NOR, UNDER 148.5 PUR-USU, UNDER 148 ILL-DUQ))

NCAA betting trends by seed

• Over the last 25 years, there has been a clear benchmark for when heavily favored #1 seeds struggle to win ATS, and it comes at the 12-point line. In fact, in that span, #1 seeds favored by 12 or more are 23-1 SU but 9-15 ATS (37.5%). (AGAINST CONNECTICUT -14)

• #1 seeds are currently on a 4-12 ATS (25%) skid versus #8 seeds in the second round but are 9-7 ATS versus #9 seeds in that same 10-year window (AGAINST PURDUE -10.5).

• Second-round #2 seeds have felt the upset pressure, going just 14-23-2 ATS (37.8%) in their last 39 games. Those favored by 5 points or less are just 13-19 SU and 10-20-2 ATS (33.3%) since 2002. (AGAINST ARIZONA -9, IOWA ST -6.5, TENNESSEE -6.5, MARQUETTE -3.5)

• It’s been a struggle lately in the second round for the top 3 seeds overall, as here are the current ATS slides they are on: #1 seeds 12-18 ATS, #2 seeds 14-23-1 ATS, #3 seeds 9-17 ATS. (AGAINST ALL TOP 3 SEEDS)

• Seeds #4-#6 have been stellar lately in the second round, with these spread runs entering 2020: #4 seeds 18-11 ATS, #5 seeds 20-9 ATS, #6 seeds 20-10 ATS. Surviving the first-round upset attempt has seemingly propelled these teams to solid round two performances. (ON ALABAMA -6, DUKE -6.5, SAN DIEGO STATE -5, CLEMSON +4.5)

• Second round #10 seeds are on a 4-13 SU but 10-5-2 ATS (66.7%) run since 2011 (ON COLORADO +3.5)

• In second-round games between two double-digit seeds, the best seed has been 12-2 SU and ATS since 2001, playing each time as the favorite. (ON NC STATE -6)

• #14 seeds that pulled off upsets in the first round are 0-10 SU and ATS (0%) in the second round since 1998, losing by an average of 14.8 PPG. (AGAINST OAKLAND +6)

• Better-seeded teams are just 10-16 SU and ATS (38.5%) when playing as underdogs to worse-seeded teams in the second round since 2001. (AGAINST KANSAS +4)

ACC

Over the last three NCAA tournaments, the ACC boasts a record of 25-10 SU and 26-9 ATS (74.3%). (ON CLEMSON +4.5, DUKE -6.5, NORTH CAROLINA -4, NC STATE -6)

In the role of pick ’em or small underdog (up to 4.5 points), ACC teams are currently on a 17-3 ATS (85%) surge, including nine straight covers. (ON CLEMSON +4.5)

ACC teams are just 29-47-1 ATS (38.2%) as favorites of 5 points or less in the NCAAs since 1998. (AGAINST NORTH CAROLINA -4)

ACC teams playing as double-digit seeds are 17-8-1 ATS (68%) since 2012. (ON NC STATE -6)

ACC teams are on a current surge of 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in the NCAAs versus Big 12 foes. (ON CLEMSON +4.5)

Atlantic 10

Favorites are on an 18-6 SU and 15-9 ATS (60%) surge in Atlantic 10 NCAA tourney games since 2015. (AGAINST DAYTON +9, DUQUESNE +10)

Big 12

Big 12 teams in the #4-#8 seed ranges are on a slide of 25-32 SU and 21-35 ATS (37.5%) since 2010, popular upset victims. (AGAINST KANSAS +4, TEXAS +6.5)

Against mid-major teams in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a 22-9 ATS (71%) surge. (ON KANSAS +4)

Underdogs are on a 16-3 ATS (84.2%) run in NCAA tourney games between Big 12 and Pac-12 teams. Big 12 teams are just 6-13 ATS (31.6%)in those contests. (AGAINST IOWA STATE -6.5)

Big 12 teams have lost 57 of their 72 NCAA tourney games since 2000 as underdogs of 2.5 points or more and are 29-42-1 ATS (40.8%) in those games. (AGAINST KANSAS +4, TEXAS +6.5)

As favorites of 7 points or more in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a current run of 30-2 SU and 22-10 ATS (68.8%). (ON HOUSTON -9.5)

Big East

Big East teams have also thrived in the tournament’s second round of late, going 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) since 2017. (ON CONNECTICUT -14, CREIGHTON -4.5, MARQUETTE -3.5)

Top two seeded (#1s & #2s) from the Big East have validated their positions by going 22-5 SU and 20-7 ATS (74.1%) in the NCAAs since 2016. (ON CONNECTICUT -14, MARQUETTE -3.5)

Teams from the Big East have been highly reliable double-digit favorites in the NCAAs since 2007, going 41-3 SU and 29-15 ATS (65.9%). (ON CONNECTICUT -14)

Big East teams have struggled versus the Pac-12 in NCAA tourney play, 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS (28.6%) since 2010. (AGAINST CREIGHTON -4.5, MARQUETTE -3.5)

Favorites are 44-17 ATS (72.1%) in the last 61 Big East NCAA tourney games. (ON CONNECTICUT -14, CREIGHTON -4.5, MARQUETTE -3.5)

Big Ten

Overall, Big Ten teams and top 6 seeds haven’t meshed well since 2015, as they are 43-31 SU but 29-44-1 ATS (39.7%) in that scenario. (AGAINST ILLINOIS -10, PURDUE -10.5)

Big Ten teams have been relatively strong in the double-digit chalk role in the tournament, 51-5 SU and 31-21-4 ATS (59.6%) since 1998, (ON ILLINOIS -10, PURDUE -10.5)

For as good as Big Ten teams have been in the big favorite role, they have been brutal as underdogs of 5.5 points or more in the tournament, 6-50 SU and 21-35 ATS (37.5%) since 1998. (AGAINST NORTHWESTERN +14)

In tourney games of the second round and later, Big Ten teams are just 16-31 SU and 17-28-2 ATS (37.8%) since 2017. (AGAINST ILLINOIS -10, MICHIGAN STATE +4, NORTHWESTERN +14, PURDUE -10.5)

Horizon

Horizon League teams have lost 12 of their last 14 NCAA tourney games, but they are currently on a four-game ATS win streak. (ON OAKLAND +6)

Horizon League teams are on a 17-7 Under the total (70.8%) NCAA run. (UNDER 146.5 OAK-NCST)

Line placement has been key in Horizon League NCAA tourney games. As dogs of 8 points or more, they are 1-14 SU and 6-9 ATS (40%) since 2002. In all other games, they are 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS (73.3%). (ON OAKLAND +6)

In their last 15 NCAA tourney games versus power conference foes, Horizon League teams are 2-14 SU and 6-10 ATS (37.5%) since 2002. Versus other mid-majors, Horizon League teams are on an 8-2 SU and ATS tourney surge. (AGAINST OAKLAND +6)

Ivy

Ivy League teams have gone 8-12 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) in their last 20 NCAA tourney games. (ON YALE +5)

Ivy League teams are on a 20-11 Under the total (64.5%) NCAA run. (UNDER 128.5 YALE-SDSU)

Mountain West

Mountain West teams’ struggles in the NCAAs haven’t been that well-documented, but collectively, they are just 29-60 SU and 28-58-3 ATS (32.6%) since 2001. (AGAINST SAN DIEGO STATE -5, UTAH STATE +10.5)

As tournament underdogs, Mountain West teams are just 11-41 SU and 14-35-3 ATS (28.6%) since 2001. (AGAINST UTAH STATE +10.5)
Mountain West Conference teams have been totally overmatched against major conference programs in the NCAAs since 2000, 12-48 SU and 15-43-2 ATS (25.9%). (AGAINST UTAH STATE +10.5)

As seeds of 8 or worse in the NCAAs, MWC teams are on a brutal 5-35 SU and 7-31-2 ATS (18.4%) since 2003! (AGAINST UTAH STATE +10.5

Pac-12

Pac-12 teams are on an 18-4 ATS (81.8%) run versus Big 12 and Big East teams in NCAA tourney play since 2013. (ON COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5, WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)

Pac-12 teams are on a run of 21-8 ATS (72.4%) in second-round NCAA tournament games. (ON ARIZONA -9, COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5, WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)

Pac-12 teams have performed extremely well as underdogs lately in NCAA tourney games, 38-17 ATS (69.1%) since 2011. (ON COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5, WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)

Double-digit seeded Pac-12 teams in the NCAAs have been hard to knock out, as they are 29-21 SU and 37-13 ATS (74%) since ’09. (ON COLORADO +3.5, OREGON +4.5)

Alternatively, Pac-12 teams in the #7-#9 seeds are on a 9-22 SU and 12-19 ATS (38.7%) skid in the NCAAs. (AGAINST WASHINGTON STATE +6.5)

SEC

The last five NCAA tournaments have been a struggle for SEC teams, as they are just 39-40 SU and 28-51 ATS (35.4%) since the Friday of the first round in the 2018 tourney. (AGAINST ALABAMA -6, TENNESSEE -6.5, TEXAS A&M +9.5)

Underdogs are 47-25 ATS (65.3%) in the last 72 SEC NCAA tourney games overall. (AGAINST ALABAMA -6, TENNESSEE -6.5 – ON TEXAS A&M +9.5)

Seeded in the bottom half of the field (#9-#14), SEC teams have struggled to a 10-24 SU and 12-20-2 ATS (37.5%) record since 2007. (AGAINST TEXAS A&M +9.5)

The #4 seed and the SEC haven’t meshed well of late, as they are 15-24 ATS (38.5%) in that spot since 2000 and have gone Under the total at a 28-10-1 (73.6%) rate. (AGAINST ALABAMA -6 – UNDER 168.5 ALA-GCU)

SEC teams are on a 2-8 ATS (20%) skid versus mid-major teams in the NCAAs and are 6-14 ATS (30%) in the last 16. (AGAINST ALABAMA -6)

Sun Belt

Sun Belt teams have gone Under the total at a 7-1 (87.5%) in the last eight NCAA tourney games. (UNDER 148.5 James Madison-Duke)

As #14-#16 seeds in the NCAAs, Sun Belt teams are on a 6-11-1 ATS (35.3%) slide since ’99, but as #13 or better, they’ve gone 11-4 ATS (73.3%) in that same span. (ON JAMES MADISON +6.5)
As underdogs of 7.5 points or less, Sun Belt teams are on a 3-9 SU and 3-8-1 ATS (27.3%)
slide in the NCAAs. (AGAINST JAMES MADISON +6.5)

Sun Belt teams seem to take some motivation from playing major conference teams, as they are on a NCAA tourney run of 9-4 ATS (69.2%) versus those foes since 2008. (ON JAMES MADISON +6.5)

WAC

WAC teams have won just three of their last 24 games in the NCAAs since 2006, going 10-13 ATS; however, they are currently on a six-game ATS winning streak. (ON GRAND CANYON +6)

West Coast

Gonzaga is looking to slow a 4-12 ATS (25%) tourney skid for WCC teams. (AGAINST GONZAGA -4)

(789) MICHIGAN STATE vs. (790) NORTH CAROLINA
* NORTH CAROLINA is on a 7-1 ATS run versus Michigan State but lost the most recent meeting SU and ATS in 2017.

(791) TEXAS vs. (792) TENNESSEE
* Five of the last six games in the TEX-TEN series went Over the total

(835) TEXAS A&M vs. (836) HOUSTON
* TEXAS A&M has won the last four ATS versus Houston

let's hit some of these spots today
GL

Favorites: 30-22 ATS

Double-digit favorites: 14-3 ATS

Teams getting +50% of bets: 38-13 ATS

Public killing it right now!!