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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

NBA Lagniappe 3/23

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (567) BOSTON vs. (568) CHICAGO
Favoring: BOSTON against the spread.
Play On - Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after scoring 115 points or more 2 straight games
(29-7 since 1996.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.9 units).

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (559) SACRAMENTO vs. (560) ORLANDO
Favoring: SACRAMENTO against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ORLANDO) - off 2 or more consecutive home wins, in March games
(29-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.6%, +21.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (571) DENVER vs. (572) PORTLAND
Favoring: PORTLAND against the spread.
Play On - Home underdogs of 10 or more points (PORTLAND) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog
(40-13 since 1996.) (75.5%, +25.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.9 units).

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (569) UTAH vs. (570) HOUSTON
Favoring: HOUSTON against the spread.
Play On - Home favorites of 10 or more points (HOUSTON) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
(24-5 since 1996.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).

Old Post 03-23-24 01:54 PM
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msudogs
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (569) UTAH vs. (570) HOUSTON
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (UTAH) - off 2 consecutive road losses by 10 points or more, on Saturday games
(34-8 since 1996.) (81.0%, +25.2 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2 +4.8 units).

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (567) BOSTON vs. (568) CHICAGO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BOSTON) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), after 2 straight games making 16 or more 3 point shots
(58-22 since 1996.) (72.5%, +33.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-7 -1.7 units).

Old Post 03-23-24 01:54 PM
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: CHARLOTTE on the first half line.
Play Against - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 114+ points/game on the season against opponent after scoring 100 points or less 3 straight games
(42-14 since 1996.) (75.0%, +26.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-3 +4.7 units).

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (569) UTAH vs. (570) HOUSTON
Favoring: HOUSTON on the first half line.
Play Against - Underdogs of 6 or more points vs. the first half line (UTAH) - revenging a road loss vs opponent, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days
(66-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.2%, +35.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4 +4.6 units).

Old Post 03-23-24 01:54 PM
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (565) PHOENIX vs. (566) SAN ANTONIO
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (SAN ANTONIO) - off 2 or more consecutive home losses against opponent off 2 or more consecutive home wins
(57-21 since 1996.) (73.1%, +33.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (559) SACRAMENTO vs. (560) ORLANDO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (ORLANDO) - average defensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) after 42+ games, after a win by 10 points or more
(69-29 since 1996.) (70.4%, +37.1 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-2 +6.8 units).

Old Post 03-23-24 01:56 PM
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: CHARLOTTE against the spread.
ATLANTA is 4-21 ATS (-19.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 119.4, OPPONENT 126 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: CHARLOTTE against the spread.
ATLANTA is 2-15 ATS (-14.5 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 115.5, OPPONENT 123.7 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: CHARLOTTE against the spread.
ATLANTA is 5-20 ATS (-17 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 121.4, OPPONENT 125.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: CHARLOTTE against the spread.
ATLANTA is 3-18 ATS (-16.8 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=48% this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 120.1, OPPONENT 123.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Old Post 03-23-24 06:04 PM
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: Under on the total.
CHARLOTTE is 38-15 UNDER (+21.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 106, OPPONENT 112.4 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: Over on the total.
ATLANTA is 11-1 OVER (+9.9 Units) after having lost 4 of their last 5 games this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 126.6, OPPONENT 126.9 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (565) PHOENIX vs. (566) SAN ANTONIO
Favoring: Under on the total.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-2 UNDER (+11.8 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 103.7, OPPONENT 118.7 - (Rating = 3*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (563) TORONTO vs. (564) WASHINGTON
Favoring: Over on the total.
WASHINGTON is 20-5 OVER (+14.5 Units) in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 116, OPPONENT 123.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Old Post 03-23-24 06:04 PM
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (571) DENVER vs. (572) PORTLAND
Favoring: DENVER on the first half line.
PORTLAND is 3-21 (-20.1 Units) against the 1rst half line in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.9, OPPONENT 60.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (567) BOSTON vs. (568) CHICAGO
Favoring: BOSTON on the first half line.
BOSTON is 31-10 (+20 Units) against the 1rst half line when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 63.2, OPPONENT 55.3 - (Rating = 3*)

Old Post 03-23-24 06:04 PM
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Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
ATLANTA is 12-0 OVER (+12 Units) the 1rst half total revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 63.9, OPPONENT 63.7 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (571) DENVER vs. (572) PORTLAND
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
PORTLAND is 17-2 OVER (+14.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season.
The average score was PORTLAND 57.3, OPPONENT 63.7 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
CHARLOTTE is 20-4 UNDER (+15.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus terrible defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=48% this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 51.2, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/23/2024 (561) CHARLOTTE vs. (562) ATLANTA
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
CHARLOTTE is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total vs. division opponents this season.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 47.3, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Old Post 03-23-24 06:18 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks – 1:00 pm ET
Josh Hart is coming off a rough game against the Denver Nuggets. But that was the final game of a four-game road trip, and it’s never easy facing the defending champs. So, I still feel good about going to Hart with some NBA player props. It’s just hard to overlook that this Nets team is 23rd in the league in rebound rate over the last 15 games. And this team is in the bottom half of the league in adjusted defensive rating this year. So, Hart should be able to fly into the lane and grab some boards with very little resistance. And he’ll also use his superb court vision to make plays against an unorganized defense. Before running into the Nuggets, Hart had gone Over this number in four consecutive games. He did it against the Nets earlier in the year, too.

Bet: Hart Over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists (-118 – 1.5 units)

Old Post 03-23-24 06:36 PM
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* Teams on 3+ Days Rest are 175-116 SU and 170-113 ATS (60.1%) versus teams playing on One Day Rest over the last three seasons.
3/23: CHARLOTTE at Atlanta
System Match: PLAY CHARLOTTE (+8 at ATL)

* Home teams on One Day Rest are 45-35 SU & 45-34-1 ATS (57%) hosting teams playing on a 3rd Game in 8+ Days game over the last three seasons.
3/23: ATLANTA vs. Charlotte
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-8 vs CHA)

* Host teams playing on a H2H b2b were 57-48 SU & 56-47-2 ATS (54.4%) hosting teams playing a One Day Rest game over the last two seasons.

3/23: PORTLAND vs. Denver
System Match: PLAY PORTLAND (+12.5 vs DEN)

3/23: SAN ANTONIO vs. Phoenix
System Match: PLAY SAN ANTONIO (+10.5 vs PHX)

* Teams playing a 4th Straight Home game are 22-7 SU and 17-12 ATS (58.6%) hosting teams playing in an H2A b2b game over the last two seasons.
3/23: WASHINGTON vs. Toronto
System Match: PLAY WASHINGTON (-6 vs TOR)

Old Post 03-23-24 10:38 PM
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msudogs
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* Over the total was 100-69 (59.2%) over the last two seasons when one team was on One Day Rest and the opponent was playing on 3+ Days Rest.
3/23: Over the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 214)

* Under the total was 94-62-1 (60.3%) over the last two seasons when the road team was on One Day Rest and the host was playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game.
3/23: Under the total in PORTLAND-DENVER
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 212)

* Over the total was 38-28 (57.6%) last season when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a H2A b2b game.
3/23: Over the total in WASHINGTON-TORONTO
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 231)

* Under the total was 33-19 (63.5%) over the last two seasons when the home team was on One Day Rest and the road team was playing a 3rd in 8+ Days game.
3/23: Under the total in ATLANTA-CHARLOTTE
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 214)

Old Post 03-23-24 10:40 PM
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