The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, Race #12
Fair Grounds’ final prep of the Derby season has a field of twelve 3-year-olds signed on, with the winner locking up enough points to make the gate at Churchill. Runner up in the Risen Star, #12 Track Phantom gets hung wide for the second straight race but was able to clear and just miss. The setup seems to be similar again today. Track Phantom should clear and make the lead, the main question will be the added distance and the trip the horses behind him will get.
The #5 Catching Freedom is a horse I have been high on for a while. He has taken a step forward in each start, but he still has not been able to get his head in the game. In the Risen Star, he looked like he had a chance, but he could not run in a straight line in the stretch and was tired. I expect him to step forward again, but he needs to mature. Right now, his talent is further along than his mental progression.
#2 Hall of Fame is also back for more after the Risen Star. On paper, the trip did not look too bad, but when you rewatch the race, you realize he never had a chance. He was in traffic for much of the race and reacted poorly to the muddy kickback that he faced that day. Today, the draw is ideal. He will break from the two post with enough speed to sit directly behind Track Phantom and #3 Antiquarian. He has shown the ability. Today that should link up with a good trip.
Another horse who clearly has not figured it out yet is the #7 Honor Marie. Watching his Risen Star, it’s shocking he ran as well as he did. For close to a half mile, he was disinterested in the race, but once he got his mind on racing, he started gobbling up ground. I expect him to run better, but it may be too ambitious to put him in the top spot.
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03-23-24 07:50 PM |
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