KENTUCKY DERBY WATCH LIST: (1) Dornoch; (2) Sierra Leone; (3) Catching Freedom; (4) Timberlake; (5) Mystic Lake; (6) Deterministic; (7) Conquest Warrior; (8) Hades; (9) Fierceness; (10) Liberal Arts ; (11) Tuscan Gold and (12) Muth, who is prepping for the Preakness Stakes today for Bob Baffert, whose horses are suspended from racing in Kentucky.

JOCKEY & TRAINER NOTES: While the high-riding Ortiz Bros. stay home at Gulfstream, Tyler Gaffalione heads west to Oaklawn where he picks up nine mounts, including Liberal Arts in the Arkansas Derby. Also at Oakland, keep an eye on young Keith Asmussen, son of winningest all-time trainer Steve, where he’ll be riding a number of races for his father as well as D. Wayne Lukas at the Hot Springs oval. Back in South Florida, out-of-towner, always tough Joel Rosario will be on hand to ride upstart Seminole Chief in the Florida Derby.

Race 6 (1:56 p.m. ET/10:56 a.m. PT) — G2 $200K Pan American Stakes at 1 ½-mile on turf, 4YOs & Up

BEST BET OF THE DAY is #6 TAWNY PORT (9-5 morning line). The seasoned grass campaigner towers over the lackluster field. Making his second start of the season for deep Clement barn, the millionaire should break sharply and never look back under skillful rider Irad Ortiz, who has scored with him before.

Race 10 (4:06 p.m. ET/1:06 p.m. PT) — The G3 $150K Orchid Stakes at 1 ½-mile on the turf, fillies & mares, 4YO & up

#4 SURPRISINGLY (5-2 morning line) will enjoy added distance and a huge rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz. Pletcher trains for the powerful Repole cavalcade of winners.

Race 14 (6:42 p.m. ET/3:42 p.m. PT) — The G1 $1 million Florida Derby at 1 ⅛-mile, 3YOs

#9 CONQUEST WARRIOR (3-1 morning line). Winner of last two over surface, $1 million son of City of Light appears ready to meet challenge of graded competition. Shug McGaughey trains and Jose Ortiz retains the ride. Two others, #2 HADES (7-2) and #10 FIERCENESS (8-5) are formative foes.

Race 10 (6:12 p.m. ET/3:12 p.m. PT) — $250K Matron Stakes at 6 furlongs, fillies and mares, 4YO & up

LEELOO (3-1 morning line) to outsprint nine other speed specialists for trainer Ignacio Correas. JJ Hernandez rides. Steady works add to the appeal.

Race 11 (7:00 p.m. ET/4:00 p.m. PT) — G3 $750K Fantasy Stakes at 1 1/16-mile, 3YO fillies

NY invader #1 MY MANE SQUEEZE (3-1 morning line) for Maker and Prat; 8 WEST OMAHA (4-1) for Cox and Gaffalione, and #11 LEMON MUFFIN (9-2) for Lukas and young Asmussen.

Race 12 (7:47 p.m. ET/4:47 p.m. PT) — G1 $1.5 million Arkansas Derby at 1 ⅛-mile for 3YOs

MUTH (8-5 morning line) for Baffert and regular rider Hernandez. He’s won 3 of 5 while never being worse than second. The fan favorite comes east to boost his $700K bankroll. The sophomore son of Good Magic shows a string of solid works. also like #2 TIMBERLAKE (9-5) and #9 MYSTIK DAN (5-2) to get a slice of the purse pie.

Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, Race #14

To Fierceness or not to Fierceness, that is the question. And it’s a darn good one. The favorite, #10 Fierceness entered 2024 as the favorite for the run for the roses, but he threw in a clunker in his seasonal debut. He has now run two very good races, including romping at the Breeders’ Cup, and two very bad races. He’s 8-5 on the morning line, and that’s a fair price on him in this field, but I have no idea what he will break from the gate at. You cannot trust him at anything sub 6-5.

Let’s start with #2 Hades, who defeated Fierceness on the front end in the Fountain of Youth. That pace was non-existent, going :50 to the half, and was a huge benefit to Hades. While there is more speed signed on today, it still should not be too hot up front. My main issue with Hades is the price. He was 10-1 when winning the Fountain of Youth with no other pace signed on and a weaker field. Today he’s 7-2. I missed the wedding, so I do not plan on attending the funeral here.

#9 Conquest Warrior will jump up to face stakes company for the first time. His numbers are not as good as others in here, but the last race passed the eye test, and he was never fully asked to romp at today’s distance.

My favorite longshot here is #7 Catalytic underneath at a big number. He was clearly pointed for this race off a six-furlong prep and should love the added distance.