Watford at Fulham (Saturday, 7:30 a.m. ET, NBC Sports)
Watford Odds: +150
Fulham Odds: +190
Draw Odds: +250
Over/Under: 2.5 (o-135)
There have been no draws for Watford yet this season but that should change this weekend with a tough road game in West London. On the other side, Fulham have a chance to pick up points at home before playing tough league matches against Everton and Arsenal. This is a battle that both squads feel they can win, and both have a win probability greater than 33%.

The draw is a very contrarian play in this matchup (<10% of bets) and there’s also been movement on the Under 2.5, which should cater toward a 1-1 finish. Both teams have gone over the total in their last four league games, but sharp bettors are leaning toward the under.

On the moneyline, Watford have received the bulk of public support but their odds have actually increased to +205 on two separate occasions. Bookmakers don’t seem to be concerned with the overwhelming ticket support for the road side, and sharp money hasn’t really appeared in this game yet.

I’m fading the public bettors and going with the draw, especially at generous +250 odds.

Newcastle at Crystal Palace (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)
Newcastle Odds: +280
Crystal Palace Odds: +120
Draw Odds: +238
Over/Under: 2.5 (u-135)
It’s easy to pick on struggling clubs but Newcastle just don’t seem to have any identity right now, and manager Rafa Benitez is on the hot seat. They’ve earned just one point and are tied with Burnley in the cellar of the EPL table.

Crystal Palace are a much better squad with Wilfried Zaha in the lineup and he’s already contributed three goals in four matches this season. His recent comments on the number of fouls against him has spurred the Newcastle manager to respond, and there’s already a bit of animosity heading into the contest.

Surprisingly, public bettors are pulling for a Newcastle upset with nearly 50% of moneyline wagers, but I see no reason to back them. At +280 odds they’re a very trendy road underdog, and one that I’m ready to fade this weekend.

Despite being shut out in both home games this season, I expect Crystal Palace to bounce back and will gladly take the plus-money odds on the win.

The biggest line moves since opening have been on Arsenal, Bournemouth and Wolves, though all are vastly different prices.

Leicester City (-160) are the most popular bet of the weekend with more than 80% of tickets. The public clearly believes in them to respond after an ugly 4-2 loss at Bournemouth last weekend, but some of the love may be due to Huddersfield’s struggles.

There are some big favorites who aren’t receiving a lot of public support, and in those cases I think there’s great value in parlaying them. This weekend there are three favorites at -200 or higher that all are worthy: Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City.

early match, movement away from the DRAW & the visitor

SOC [201990] RAYO VALLECANO +105

YTD
11-4-2 +9.08

Fulham have conceded 2+ in 5/5 and seen O2.5 in 4/4 with O3.5 in 3/4.

Watford have seen O2.5 in 4/4 and BTTS in 4/4.

Liverpool will be keen to continue their excellent start to the season with another victory over Southampton. The South Coast team travel to Anfield on Saturday to face one of the most daunting tasks in English football at the time of writing and attempt to take something against a rampant Reds’ team. The home side come into the fixture off the back of beating PSG in the Champions League and they will be full of confidence on Saturday. Meanwhile, the visitors failed to beat Brighton on Monday, despite taking the lead on two occasions.

After just five games, Liverpool have already emerged as title contenders with maximum points. Only Chelsea have managed to match that record. It is too soon to fairly judge any of the 20 teams, but they have made a first great impression and another season of impressive recruiting has taken them to a new level. The most notable thing from their start has been the improvement of those already at the club, such as Joe Gomez, James Milner and Gini Wijnaldum. They have upped their games in response to the business being conducted by the club and they are being given regular starts as a reward. There is now real competition for places at Anfield and that can only be considered a positive.

Southampton were tipped for another season of struggle under Mark Hughes, but they will be quietly pleased with their start. They have taken five points and have performed well. Supporters will feel frustrated that they couldn’t hold on to their lead against Brighton, but there is a lot more reason to be positive than there was last season under Mauricio Pellegrino. Although Danny Ings won’t be able to feature against his parent club, the striker has emerged as a positive for the Saints with three goals already.

INTERESTING STATS
Roberto Firmino has been involved in 61 Premier League goals since Jurgen Klopp took over. This is 16 more than any other player.

Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has scored in his last two matches for Southampton, which is as many as he managed in his previous 102 appearances in Europe’s top five leagues.

KEY MEN
Mane

The attacker has had a good start to the season and he will be looking to keep that going against his former club. Mane has scored four goals in the Premier League, which is more than any other Liverpool player to date. The relationship that he has developed with Mohamed Salah and Firmino means that the Reds have one of the most dangerous front-lines in the world. That was evident against PSG, both in terms of goal threat and work rate. The visitors’ front three posed a threat, but their lack of energy when out of possession weakened their ability to keep Liverpool out. Jurgen Klopp’s side don’t have that issue as each of his front three work tirelessly for the team. The Senegalese international currently averages 1.8 ball recoveries per game, which emphasises this point. On Saturday, the home side will look to play at their usual relentless pace and they will cause a lot of problems for a team that were battling relegation last season.

Lemina

There will be a greater expectation on Mario Lemina to be a star player for Southampton this season. There are no doubting his credentials, as he has previously played at the highest level with Juventus. There is a feeling that he could be the next player that is sold to a top-six team from Southampton if he performs consistently in the Premier League. He will have the hunger to play at a higher level again in the future, but he must first thrive on the South Coast. The midfielder operates from box-to-box, with both creative and defensive instincts. This season, he has won 2.2 aerial duels per game and completed 85.3% of his passes. This displays both his physical and technical abilities. For Southampton, he is most pivotal when it comes to dominating in the midfield areas. He is currently averaging 5.6 ball recoveries per game and he will have to be at his best on Saturday if the visitors are to have a chance to getting anything from the game.

TEAM NEWS
Naby Keita and Roberto Firmino are expected to return to the starting eleven. Adam Lallana could be in contention to return to the first-team squad against his former club as he steps up his recovery from a groin strain. Dejan Lovren remains a week or two away from a return. Meanwhile, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is on the long-term injury list.

Danny Ings will be unavailable against his parent club. This is a major blow for Southampton, but Charlie Austin is likely to start in his place. Manolo Gabbiadini could return to the squad after his recent injury.

VERDICT
Mark Hughes will go to Anfield with every intention of securing a positive result, but it will be extremely difficult as Liverpool are in great form. They have outplayed Tottenham and PSG in the last seven days. It would be a surprise if they were to drop points against Southampton. A convincing home victory by two or three goals is the likely result. This will send a real statement that the Reds should be taken seriously as title contenders.

Liverpool 3-0 Southampton

SATURDAY'S BEST BACKED

1. Leicester
2. Leeds
3. Crystal Palace
4. Hearts
5. Wolfsburg

375369071
Liverpool FC -2- 123

375369285
Newcastle v Crystal Palace Over 2.25 -114

375369286
Leicester City -0.75 -119

375369287
Tottenham v Brighton Over 2.75 -103

glta

that was pathetic

SOC [201990] RAYO VALLECANO +105.......L

YTD
11-5-2 +8.08

following $

SOC [200021] TOTAL o2½-114 (WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS vrs MANCHESTER UNITED)

EPL line movement this morning

Crystal Palace (v Newcastle)
Bournemouth (at Burnley)
Man City (at Cardiff)

Betting odds: Hertha Berlin at Borussia Monchengladbach
Hertha Berlin moneyline: +147
Monchengladbach moneyline: +186
Draw: +238
Over/Under: 2.5 (-117/-104)
Kickoff: Saturday, 9:30 a.m. ET
Channel: Fox Sports 2
In a match between two of the Bundesliga’s strongest starters, these two sides are not only tied with seven points after three matches, but also in goals scored (five) and goals conceded (two).

Picking a winner is difficult, then, but the goal-line markets offer some good prices if the recent history between the two is anything to go by.

Eight of the last nine Bundesliga meetings between Hertha and Gladbach have seen more than 2.5 goals scored, with the visitors boasting the better of said meetings, winning seven and scoring at least twice in all but one of those victories. In total, 34 goals have been scored between the sides since 2014 (3.8 per game), and with both having made encouraging starts to the season there shouldn’t be any fear of defeat from either side, leading to another entertaining affair.

Leganes at Eibar
Leganes moneyline: +312
Eibar moneyline: +108
Draw: +230
Over/Under: 2 (-120/+105)
Kick-off: Saturday, 10:15 a.m. ET
Channel: beIN Sports
After back-to-back defeats and underwhelming performances to start the campaign, Eibar have improved markedly since, picking up four points from tricky meetings with Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid.

Facing Leganes at home is a far simpler task on paper, but while the hosts are favorites in the odds, their price is still higher than I would expect.

Leganes have lost their last nine away games in La Liga stretching back to last season after all, and are at the foot of the table with just one point from four matches this time around.

Eibar, meanwhile, have won the last three league meetings between the sides without so much as conceding a goal. So another home win offers enough value in this one.

Bet: Eibar to win +108 (5Dimes)

SOC [200014] CRYSTAL PALACE +105

Liverpool -2
Leicester City -1
Tottenham o2.5

BetShare
BRI/TOT

Spread
BRI (+0.5 & +1) 39%
TOT (-0.5 & -1) 61%

ML
Brighton 24%
Tottenham 31%
Draw 45%

Tot (2.5 & 3)
Ov 56%
Un 44%

rough morning, can't complain had plenty of opportunities

SOC [200021] TOTAL o2½-114 (WOLVERHAMPTON WANDERERS vrs MANCHESTER UNITED)...........L
SOC [200014] CRYSTAL PALACE +105.....L

YTD
11-7-2 +5.86

Betting odds: Inter Milan at Sampdoria
Inter Milan moneyline: -111
Sampdoria moneyline: +334
Draw: +269
Over/Under: 2.5 (-121/+106)
Kick-off: Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Channel: ESPN+
Sampdoria have picked up four points from their two matches at home thus far despite facing strong opposition in the form of Fiorentina and Napoli, comfortably beating the latter 3-0. Those results have stretched what is an impressive home record for the club, which has lost just two of their last 13 matches at home at the Luigi Ferraris, and just four since the start of last season.

The fact that Inter, who came through a tough Champions League tie with Tottenham in midweek, are strong favorites away from home with the bookmakers doesn’t tally with me as a result. Despite their win in midweek, Luciano Spalletti’s side still don’t look convincing at this early stage of the season, and Samp will be keen to upset the odds again this season, exacting revenge on their visitors for a heavy defeat in this fixture earlier in the year.

The fact that Inter have poached some of their top performers in recent years (see Eder, Milan Skriniar and Mauro) only adds extra incentive for the home side to get their own back.

375369071
Liverpool FC -2- 123 ........win

375369285
Newcastle v Crystal Palace Over 2.25 -114 ..loss

375369286
Leicester City -0.75 -119 ................win

375369287
Tottenham v Brighton Over 2.75 -103 .....win

Fulham/Watford - BTTS and O2.5 +100....L...came close
Bournemouth ML +155....L...not close
Cardiff City/Man City - BTTS +130.....L....bad call, Cardiff was outclassed
Brighton/Tottenham O2.5 -130......W

At least my losses were +

Good day Gary.