Good luck to us. I have France and Croatia in a future, so I figure I could be good either way.

Belgium just could not put one in, in spite of their best efforts.

BTTS -140 risk 2.8 to win 2 units..LL
O2.5 +110 risk 2 units...LL
Belgium PK, +.5 -133...L
Belgium to advance +110...L

31-31.5-4.5
-0.94

Here’s a look at the offshore betting market and how the public has bet each team throughout the tournament.

Keep in mind that all moneylines, spreads and totals are based on 90 minutes of regulation

Moneyline
England opened as the +137 favorites to win in regulation and the line hasn’t strayed too far off that number. As for Croatia, they were first offered at +251 and quickly moved to +245, but since then the odds haven risen to +266. They’re receiving 32% of bets which is nearly in line with their implied win probability (27%).

The majority of tickets has come in on England from the get-go, and they’re currently receiving 55% of the moneyline share. Despite the early support among the public, oddsmakers haven’t budged much on England and they’re sitting at +135 to win.

That leaves the draw, which has seen a bit of early sharp action around the market. It opened at +219 but has dipped down to +211 behind just 13% of bets. This would be the third straight match for Croatia to go to extra time, which would equate to another whole game.

Total
With Croatia’s style of play it’s no surprise the total opened at a low 2 goals once again, and the juice on the over hasn’t shifted much (-104 to -105).

Just like the France-Belgium semifinal, nearly 90% of public bettors are taking the over, but there’s been no movement toward the over. This could be shaping up for a 1-1 draw that will need extra time.

Public Support Throughout World Cup
England
England were a very popular bet as big favorites in the first two games (vs. Tunisia, vs. Panama), but the public jumped off the bandwagon after that. After losing to Belgium, 1-0, they barely received the majority of tickets against Colombia and Sweden.

Croatia

Besides the match against Argentina, Croatia have been one of the trendier wagers throughout the tournament. They’ve received at least 63% of bets in four of five matches, however they only cashed for the public in two of them. They’re getting just 32% of bets at +266 against England, but similar numbers against Argentina certainly worked out well.

England vs. Croatia, 2 p.m. ET, Fox
England +131
Croatia +256
Draw +207
It’s fair to say that both England and Croatia have exceeded expectations to reach this stage, but both will be desperate to go that one step further. The former will perhaps feel they hold an advantage after a relatively comfortable victory over Sweden on Saturday, while Croatia had to go the distance against hosts Russia.

That was the second match running in which Zlatko Dalic’s side required a penalty shootout to progress, and they have looked tired after a mightily impressive performance in the group stage. That additional fatigue has certainly had a bearing on the outright odds. And while the psychological lift of two spot-kick victories is a consideration, whether Croatian legs can keep up with Croatian minds is another matter.

England, meanwhile, seemed buoyed by an achievement that seemed impossible in the minds of the fans against Colombia — England don’t win shootouts after all — and after a nervy start to their quarterfinal, they did deserve their two-goal victory
Numbers to Watch
Croatian Crosses: If Croatia are crossing the ball a lot, that’s a good outcome for England. Their defensive plan will be to let Croatia funnel the ball wide and cross it to the middle where England’s defenders will be waiting.

Harry Kane Shots: Despite his six goals, Kane hasn’t been a major force for England from open play. Half of those goals have come from penalties and two more have come from set pieces. Only one goal, England’s sixth against lowly Panama, came from open play. If Kane is getting on the ball in shooting location against Croatia, watch out. — Michael Goodman

Breaking Down the Odds
England and Croatia were both fortunate to be on the “easier” side of the knockout bracket. They entered the tournament as darkhorses/longshots, but once the Round of 16 rolled around, they were legitimate contenders.

Croatia began the tournament at +3500 odds while England were +1650. Once Spain had been eliminated from their side of the bracket, England were the clear favorites to reach the final, but Croatia also felt pretty good about their chances.

Injuries/Suspensions
Injuries: Croatia is dealing with a number of injuries after winning their second straight match in a penalty shootout. Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic pulled his hamstring late in the quarterfinal vs. Russia and stayed in to earn his second straight PK victory. He’ll likely start against England, but hamstring injuries don’t magically go away, so that will surely be one to keep an eye on. On the right side of defense, Šime Vrsaljko (knee) is doubtful and will be likely be replaced by Vedran Corluka in the starting lineup. Up front, Mandzukic is expected to start, but he went down with injury a number of times against Russia, so his fitness should be monitored.

For England, midfielder Jordan Henderson came off late in the quarterfinal against Sweden with a hamstring issue and is questionable for Wednesday’s match against Croatia. Forward Jamie Vardy (groin) is doubtful but he hasn’t made much of an impact so far this tourney. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford is also dealing with a bruised thumb but will surely start the semifinal.
Suspensions: Fortunately neither team has any players suspended for the semifinal, and the only way to be suspended for the final is to earn a red card this game. There has been a strange development for Croatia, however, with assistant coach Ognjen Vukojevic being fired due to posting a “Glory to Ukraine” video after the match with Russia. It’s difficult to gauge whether this will affect the team or not, but it’s not the best distraction to have nonetheless

Gamebreakers
So far in the 2018 World Cup, everything has gone England’s way. They started out with a very weak draw, then played Colombia (who were missing their star player James Rodriguez), and then beat a toothless Swedish side in the quarterfinals. England have been dealt another break in the semis as they are set to battle an exhausted Croatia side. The Vatreni have played back-to-back 120-minute games, and by the end of the quarterfinals, the players were showing obvious signs of fatigue. Vrsaljko left the game with a knee injury, and Mandzukic could barely move by the match’s end.

How Croatia’s players recover will obviously be paramount to their success. If Dalic decides to rotate his squad, he can insert Brozovic or Kovacic into the midfield while Corluka could slot in for Vrsaljko, with Domagoj Vida moving out wide.

Meanwhile, despite Kane’s goal-scoring success, you could argue that England’s most important player thus far is another Harry — Maguire. The hulking centerback has been the key cog on most set pieces. Almost all of England’s set-play designs are built for Maguire to score or push the ball into the mixer with a header at the back post. Fortunately for Maguire and England, the service from Ashley Young and Kieran Trippier has been terrific throughout the tournament on direct kicks.

367671345
SOC Belgium +197 .................loss

Belgium / France
367626407
BTTS Yes -128 X2.............loss / loss

WC 39-46-4 ...+481

With an all-European final on the cards, England (W4, L1 - 1 shootout win) and Croatia (W5 - 2 shootout wins) will battle it out in Moscow to set up a meeting in the final of Russia 2018 with France (who beat Belgium 1-0 on Tuesday).
Croatia continue to deliver on the world stage after knocking out the host nation Russia in the quarter-finals. After conceding just one goal in the group stages where they swept aside Argentina, Nigeria and Iceland, the ‘Blazers’ (CRO) then saw off Denmark (last-16) and Russia (quarter-finals) both on penalties.
Gareth Southgate's 'Three Lions' march on following an impressive 2-0 win over 'bogey team' Sweden. Now undefeated in 15 of their last 16 fixtures, England are 11 goals to the good and are particularly effective at set-pieces, with eight of their goals coming from dead-ball situations.
In seven previous H2H meetings in all competitions, England have the advantage with four wins compared to Croatia's two - with one draw. Their last matchup saw England win 5-1 in the 2009 European qualifiers.
After playing 120 minutes of football against hosts Russia last time out, will the Croatia defence now hold out against the tournaments 'set-piece' kings? Or can Croatia take inspiration from their 3-2 victory back in 2007?
Players to watch: While Harry Kane has six goals so far, Croatia's manager has outlined pace-master Raheem Sterling as England's main danger - Sterling has two goals from 42 caps.
Meanwhile, two-goal Luka Modrić has the experience and skill to hurt England from his own set-pieces - he has 14 goals from 111 caps.
Stat attack: Undefeated in their last nine matches, Croatia have seen over 2.5 goals in total in four of their last five meetings with England.
With England scoring five set-piece goals at this World Cup, and Croatia conceding two set-piece goals; could we see another here?
A total of 28 goals between them since their inaugural 1996 meeting, the four-goals per-game average suggest this may be a high-scoring affair.

I figured out that everybody wants to see an England France match up-
Therefore I have Croatia for a unit

Nbl

Everyone is on England. I'll take Croatia and the plus money.

Croatia ML +260
Croatia to advance +150

Beer money
1-0 Croatia +700

England also far more disciplined !!

Corners
367783741
England -1.5 -128

367783925
England v Croatia Over 2 +101

367784219
BTTS Yes +114

glta

WC 39-46-4 ...+481

Puzzled how I could get this, but here's my play:

Parlay:

England clean sheet no -149
Croatia over 0.5 -151

100/178

They are 2 different selections, but they are essentially the same play. Croatia scores a goal and both selections come in, so I'm getting pretty good value.

just tried it at Bookmaker and came up invalid. did you play it there USC ?? if so they may cancel
it .?.?.?

gl

unofficial footlong swag plays ..........

367804148
1st goal .. 11th - 20th min +464

367804149
1st goal .. 21st - 30th min +564

gl

I did try it and it said invalid. Usually it alerts me before I set up the play.

Oh well.

Yes, it was on bookmaker..

I'll try to see if I can get the same line in live play, assuming they don't score in the first 15-20 minutes.

Croatia ML +260...L
Croatia to advance +150...W

Totals
32-32.5-4.5
+0.56

Took France at +650, and Croatia at +1400 on futures, so I am a winner either way. Will be pulling for Croatia, will perhaps hedge a bit with France.

Third place game is usually a freewheeling affair, since no one really cares.

Corners
367783741
England -1.5 -128 ........................loss

367783925
England v Croatia Over 2 +101 .......push

367784219
BTTS Yes +114 ...........................win

glta

WC 40-47-5 ...+467

i've really enjoyed being able to watch the entire tournament ......couple props likely coming later

Parlay .....50 tw 156

Belgium +114
France -108

glta

WC 40-47-5 ...+467

Historically this game tends to be high scoring, since no one wants to play in it. Since 1974 at least 3 goals has been scored in this game and only one in the last 6 has had less than 4.

England/Belgium O3 -106. Risk 2.12 to win 2

Beer money
2-2 +1000

The World Cup final is set. On Sunday (11 a.m. ET), France and Croatia will meet in Moscow with the title on the line. The French were among the favorites before the tournament began, but few imagined Croatia would reach the championship match.

Here are three ways to hedge your Croatia World Cup bet.

Les Bleus for the Win

France are a -215 favorite to win (5Dimes). When you remove the juice, the implied probability of a Les Bleus victory is 66.0%. Croatia were a bigger underdog against Argentina in group play, a match they won 3-0, but it is hard to imagine the Vatreni shocking Les Bleus in the same way.

Not only are the odds stacked against Croatia, but so is history. Since the tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1998, the biggest longshot to win the World Cup were Italy (+1000) in 2006. Croatia were +3500 or longer before the tournament began.

The simplest strategy to ensure a profit is to hedge by betting France to win. For example: If you wagered $10 on Croatia at +3500 odds, you could place a $215 wager on France to win (-215 odds). If Croatia are triumphant, you’d win $135 ($350 minus $215). If France wins their second World Cup, you’d profit $90 ($100 minus $10). Again, this is one option, but it is guaranteed to cash.

Mbappe to win Golden Ball

Kylian Mbappe has been compared to Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Pele. The 19-year old striker for Paris Saint-Germain is the favorite (-110, 5Dimes) to win the Golden Ball, the MVP award of the World Cup.

Hedging your Croatia future ticket by wagering on Mbappe to win the Golden Ball is riskier than taking France straight-up, but at -110 odds you have to wager less, which increases your profits. For example: If you wagered $10 on Croatia at +3500 odds, you could place a $110 wager on Mbappe to win (-110 odds). If Croatia are successful, you’d win $240 ($350 minus $110). If France wins and we assume Mbappe is named tournament MVP, you’d take home $90 ($100 minus $10).

If you are going to hedge, I like this option the best. Mbappe is like Tom Brady. When the Patriots win the Super Bowl, TB12 takes home the MVP, just as the French striker would.

Your third hedging option is to not hedge at all. Why should you sacrifice any profit when you are this close to a monster payday? Plus, the computer models give Croatia a better chance of winning than the betting markets.

In a rematch from their final group stage game, Belgium will face off against England for third-place on Saturday at 10 a.m. ET. Both teams were left disappointed in the World Cup semifinal as Belgium fell to France, 1-0, and England lost to Croatia, 2-1, in extra time.

Consolation matches are generally high scoring at the World Cup, as the past 10 contests have featured at least three goals.

Moneyline
Belgium +120, England +234, Draw +275

Belgium are the +120 favorites on the moneyline and receiving more than 60% of bets. In addition to that lopsided support, they’re also getting more than 70% of spread bets at the same price (+120), so the public is not too keen on England to win/draw.

I assume this is for a few different reasons:

1. Belgium already beat England in the group stage in a game that neither cared to win.

2. Belgium lost to a better France squad in the semifinal, while England blew a lead against an “inferior” Croatia side.

3. Belgium have had an extra day of rest and haven’t played in any extra time/penalty shootouts. They also have Michy Batshuayi at forward, who did this in the last game against England:
There hasn’t been much line movement and I don’t anticipate much sharp money for this game.

The draw has the longest odds at +275, so oddsmakers don’t believe these two teams will have any interest in playing extra time. If you’re betting this game, you’ll want to take either Belgium (+120) or England (+234).

Total
3 (u-120)

Despite the fact these third-place matches are essentially “meaningless” for each team, there have been plenty of goals scored. Oddsmakers are fully aware of this and have set the total at 3 goals (u-120), which is the highest of the knockout rounds.

Public bettors usually flock to goals, but just 55% of tickets has come in on Over 3. The lack of intensity and star power may actually cater to goals since neither team will really care, so this may be a good contrarian spot to take the over.