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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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World Cup Betting: Croatia vs. Russia, 2 p.m. ET, FOX
Croatia +124
Russia +298
Draw +210
Bet To Watch
Mario Mandzukic to score first (+600)
It’s been a dream World Cup so far for Croatia and Russia, both longshots before the tournament. Now they’ve got realistic goals of advancing to the final. Both sides were victorious in the Round of 16 after going to a penalty shootout: Croatia eked by Denmark, and Russia shocked Spain.
The good news for Russia is that the last five hosts to reach the quarterfinals also made the semifinal (Brazil 2014, Germany 2006, South Korea 2002, France 1998 and Italy 1990). However, besides South Korea, those teams were all powerhouses in the first place. Russia are +150 to advance to the semifinal, so odds are stacked against them even with home-field advantage.
Russia used a three-man defense against Spain and soaked up pressure, but may return to four in the back against Croatia. They’ve made it very difficult for their opponents to find a rhythm, and have committed the most fouls and most bookings of any team in the tournament. Against superior teams such as Uruguay and Spain, they’ve clearly gone for a more defensive-minded approach, but may try to surprise Croatia with a more attacking strategy.
Either way, Croatia should have the bulk of possession on Saturday afternoon and may need to score an ugly goal to advance, so who better than Mario Mandzukic to clean up around the net? He got off the schneid in the last match against Denmark and should have plenty of opportunities against Russia, especially as the main man up top.
Croatia’s matches don’t feature many goals and have finished with two or fewer in 13 of 17 games. With a low O/U listed at 2 for Saturday, bettors should expect more of the same against Russia. The first goal of the match may be the only one, and I like Mandzukic’s chances of getting it at +600.
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07-07-18 06:32 PM |
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14869
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7/10...what to do what to do
Two of Europe's heavyweights go H2H in a game that’s been coined as the “final before the final”. On paper, these sides are stronger than the other two semi-finalists, meaning that the eventual winner will be installed as favourites to lift the 2018 World Cup (WC).
Belgium are playing attractive football, but it is a France side led by WC winner Didier Deschamps that stands between Belgium and their first ever WC final. Despite being the second youngest side in the tournament, ‘Les Bleus’ have proven to be a match for anyone.
The hype surrounding the so-called “Golden Generation” of Belgian football stars has finally been justified. In reaching the semi-finals, Belgium have now matched their finest ever WC run, which ended at this stage in Mexico ‘86.
The last time these two nations faced off against each other at the WC finals was Mexico ‘86 in the third place playoff. On that occasion, France prevailed by winning 4-2 in extra time, after the first 90 minutes yielded a 2-2 scoreline.
Players to watch: Antoine Griezmann has scored in each of France’s two knockout games, however he will need to go goal-crazy to have any chance of winning the golden boot.
Eden Hazard has arguably been the standout performer for Belgium, with his skilful trickery helping him notch two goals and two assists.
Stat attack: Belgium have scored at least two goals in all but one game during this competition.
Four of Belgium’s five games during the campaign have produced over 2.5 goals in total.
Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann have scored six of France’s nine goals between them.
Three of the last four meetings between the sides have produced under 2.5 goals in total.
Both sides have already won from losing positions during this tournament.
GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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07-09-18 11:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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England-Croatia (Wednesday, 2 p.m. ET)
Croatia is dealing with a number of injuries after winning their second straight match in a penalty shootout.
Goalkeeper Danijel Subasic pulled his hamstring late in the quarterfinal vs. Russia and stayed in to earn his second straight PK victory. He’ll likely start against England but hamstring injuries don’t magically go away, so that will surely be one to keep an eye on.
On the right side of defense, Šime Vrsaljko (knee) is doubtful and will likely be replaced by Vedran Corluka in the starting lineup.
Up front, Mario Mandzukic is expected to start, but he went down with injury a number of times against Russia, so his fitness should be monitored.
For England, midfielder Jordan Henderson came off late in the quarterfinal against Sweden with a hamstring issue and is questionable for Wednesday’s match against Croatia.
Forward Jamie Vardy (groin) is doubtful but he hasn’t made much of an impact so far this tourney.
Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford is also dealing with a bruised thumb but will surely start the semifinal.
Fortunately neither team has any players suspended for the semifinal, and the only way to be suspended for the final is to earn a red card this game. There has been a strange development for Croatia, though, with assistant coach Ognjen Vukojevic being fired due to posting a “Glory to Ukraine” video after the match against Russia. It’s difficult to gauge whether this will affect the team or not, but it’s not the best distraction to have nonetheless.
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07-10-18 12:54 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Betting odds: Belgium vs. France, 2 p.m., Fox
Belgium +213
France +150
Draw +212
In a semifinal match between the two remaining sides that have yet to be forced to extra time or, worse still, the dreaded penalty shootout, there is no physical advantage for either team on the face of it. That said, in the knockout rounds, it is Belgium that have been made to work significantly harder for their spot in the final four.
The Red Devils needed to come from two down to avoid what would have been a huge upset against Japan, requiring a 94th-minute winner from Nacer Chadli, and while no such late heroics were required against Brazil, the pre-tournament favorites pushed Roberto Martinez’s men all the way in the quarterfinals.
That may, in part, have had a slight reflection on the odds ahead of a tough game to call in Saint Petersburg this Tuesday, with France far more comfortable in victory over an Edinson Cavani-less Uruguay team and arguably more so than the scoreline suggested in a seven-goal thriller with Argentina.
Said victory in the Round of 16 remains the only time when Didier Deschamps’ men have really clicked from an attacking standpoint, however, having averaged the 15th-most shots per game in Russia, while Belgium rank third and — with five more than France — are the tournament’s leading goal scorers, with an impressive 14.
Breaking Down the Odds
Both France and Belgium were among the teams with the best odds to win the World Cup before the tournament. France entered at +700 but actually increased to +900 before the Round of 16 because they were matched up with Argentina. After defeating them, 4-3, France found themselves behind only Brazil to hoist the trophy.
Tactical Breakdown
France are the best team left in the tournament, and yet they continue to be frustratingly underwhelming. They have an expansive roster of attackers, backstopped by the best ball-winner in the world in N’Golo Kante.
Despite that, they choose to set up as a defense-oriented side. Rather than leveraging Kante’s skills to set midfield partner Paul Pogba free to join in the attack, Deschamps chooses to keep Pogba in a reserved role, making extra sure that the midfield is well-manned.
Rather than unleash four attackers ahead of the midfield, Deschamps has opted to field a third midfielder, Blaise Matuidi, whose job is primarily to defend from the front and press the opposition.
It’s a system that works; France have stifled every team they’ve played (except for Argentina, whose three goals came from a 35-yard bomb, a deflection and a garbage-time consolation goal), but it still leaves something to be desired. With Pogba, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele, France seem like they should just be more fun, even if they’re still very good.
Belgium, on the other hand, have fun locked up. After cruising through the group stage, they’ve had a rip-roaring, roller coaster of a time in the knockout rounds. They fell behind Japan, 2-0, before rallying to win, 3-2, on the last kick of regular time. For their next trick, they jumped out to a 2-0 lead against Brazil, and hung on to win, 2-1, despite a furious last-minute barrage from Neymar & Co.
Belgium lined up quite differently in their two matches. Against Japan, Martinez played his usual 3-4-3 with Kevin De Bruyne and Axel Witsel in midfield. But against Brazil, Martinez benched winger Dries Mertens, moved striker Romelu Lukaku wide to the right and played De Bruyne in the front line as a false nine, a striker dropping into the midfield.
After a 13th-minute own goal gave Belgium the lead, the counterattacking trio of De Bruyne, Lukaku and Eden Hazard were able to get multiple free runs at Brazil’s back line, ultimately giving Belgium a second goal and a margin that was too large for Brazil to claw back.
How Belgium set up against France is crucially important. Deschamps would like nothing more than to let Belgium try to attack them, and then tee up counterattack after counterattack for Mbappe. It’s hard to see how a midfield duo of De Bruyne and Witsel could provide their back line enough protection to stop that from happening.
However, if Belgium went for a more defensive pairing such as Witsel and Mourane Fellaini, it’s hard to see how they’d be able to break through that great French defensive wall. If Belgium do make attacking progress, it will likely be down the flanks, specifically on France’s right, where Hazard could take advantage of Mbappe’s tendency to come in off the wing, and the fact that Belgium’s first choice wingback Thomas Meunier is suspended.
Numbers to Watch
N’Golo Kante Ball Recoveries: If Kante is consistently turning Belgium over, it’s going to be a long day for the Red Devils. One of the ways France loves to counterattack is by taking Kante’s ball-winning and turning it into a quick attack at the other end. If Kante is spending the afternoon taking the ball away from the likes of De Bruyne and Witsel, it’s going to lead to shots at the other end.
Kevin De Bruyne Final Third Passes: De Bruyne is a brilliant passer. Either in transition or in settled attacks, he makes things happen. Depending on where he starts, he’ll have different challenges to overcome. If he starts in deep midfield, then it will be important to watch how often he’s able to get forward and play those final third passes to teammates. If he starts as part of an attacking trio, he’ll need teammates to make sure they feed him the ball, so that he in turn can do something with it.
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07-10-18 12:56 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Here’s a look at the offshore betting market and how the public has bet each team throughout the tournament.
Keep in mind that all moneylines, spreads and totals are based on 90 minutes of regulation
Moneyline
France opened +143 to win in regulation and briefly dropped down to +139 and there hasn’t been much line movement yet. Belgium opened as +217 underdogs and their odds have basically hovered around there over the last couple days.
At the time of publication, 51% of the bets has come in on France while 37% are on Belgium. The remaining 12% of bettors have decided to take the draw.
Sportsbooks around the market are comfortable with the current odds and action that they’re getting on both sides, yet they have moved the ‘draw’ line quite a bit. After opening at +217, the draw rose to +230 before settling in at +224. This is an indication that the market hasn’t received much sharp money on the draw yet, and public bettors have steered clear as well.
Total
This has been one of the most lopsided public bets of the entire tournament with 91% of tickets on the over (2.5). It should be noted, however, that sportsbooks opened the total at 2 goals and smart money quickly forced oddsmakers to increase it.
Even after sportsbooks increased the total to 2.5, it wasn’t enough. The juice on the over was initially at +125 but now it’s at +110, signifying even more money coming in on the over.
I’m still very surprised that oddsmakers would open the total at just 2 goals considering Belgium’s potent attacking unit and the fact that they haven’t been great defensively. This is a big deal for early bettors who only need two combined goals for a push, so it’s a low-risk wager.
France have received the majority of tickets in all five matches thus far and have rewarded bettors in four of them. They began the tournament as big favorites and squeaked by both Australia and Peru. They were clearly the better team and rightful winners against Argentina and Uruguay.
Overs are 2-2-1 in France’s matches so far.
Despite winning all five of their matches, public betting percentages and odds have been all over the place for Belgium. They received the majority of bets as big favorites against Panama, Tunisia and Japan, but closed with just 40% against England and 34% against Brazil, both victories as +260 underdogs.
Overs have gone 4-1 in Belgium matches so far.
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07-10-18 08:06 AM |
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