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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Brazil vs. Belgium, 2 p.m. ET, Fox
Brazil +113
Belgium +257
Draw +244
Bet to Watch:
Belgium to advance +152
After a smooth sail through the group stages, Belgium were almost upended by Japan in the Round of 16. The Red Devils generated plenty of great scoring chances but found themselves trailing, 2-0, after 52 minutes. Belgium were the dominant team, but a couple of hiccups turned into wonderful goals by Japan.
Belgium kept pressing and finally got their first goal on a crazy header from Jan Vertonghen followed by a more traditional one from Marouane Fellaini. The Belgians finished the game in emphatic fashion, as they pulled off a crisp counterattack that culminated with an incredible dummy from Romelu Lukaku. Even if the scoreline may suggest Belgium were lucky to get the win, they were a force to be reckoned with and created 3.0 expected goals compared to just 0.8 by Japan.
Even though Brazil defeated Mexico, 2-0, in their Round of 16 match, El Tri laid a blueprint for how to best undo The Yellow Canary’s all of a sudden solid defense. For chunks of the game, Mexico had a lot of success down the right side of the field. Carlos Vela was menacing and Fagner was not keeping up. Even though Mexico was competitive for a while, Brazil’s quality won out and they deserved to go through.
Casual fans may think this is a matchup between two unstoppable forces, but this matchup has more Newtonian nuance to it than meets the eye. Brazil’s defense has allowed only six goals in 25 games under Tite. They have conceded only once in this tournament, and that goal came on a corner kick by Switzerland in their opener.
Belgium have been less than stellar in keeping the ball out of the onion bag. Through four games, they have conceded five goals — including two against Tunisia and two against Japan. However, their offense has been the most prolific in the tournament, and they have showed the ability to score in basically every way imaginable.
One key suspension to note is that Casemiro, who serves as an anchor in Brazil’s midfield, will miss this match. That should help Kevin De Bruyne in his task of picking apart the Selecao with his passing. De Bruyne hasn’t really gotten going yet, but he should be helped by the tempo at which this match is likely to be played.
Brazil’s offense is obviously no walk in the park to stop. Neymar, Coutinho and Gabriel Jesus make life miserable for defenders, and if Marcelo is healthy, he expands their attack immensely. It will be a daunting task, but it’s not out of the question for a back three of Vertonghen, Vincent Kompany and Toby Alderweireld along with the help of either Fellaini to hold the South Americans in check to an extent. The key for Belgium will not be to completely shut down Neymar and Co., but rather keep them contained. One or two goals will not kill their chances, as they are likely to score a goal or two themselves.
In the end, Brazil is the more likely team to advance, but I believe this one is a lot closer than the odds suggest. At +152, the market is suggesting that the Red Devils have a ~39.7% chance of advancing. I think that’s underrating their chances and like a bet on them to make it through to the semifinals.
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07-06-18 08:02 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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France vs. Uruguay (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: France +105, Uruguay +370, Draw +210
Odds to Advance: France -215, Uruguay +185
The moneyline on France to win in regulation has consistently hovered above the opener of +100 at Pinnacle and the offshore market, but that’s not the case at Nevada’s sportsbooks. Most are listing France as the odds-on favorites, even as high as -125 (like Wynn), so there’s clearly a difference in liability. If you are going to bet them, shop the market and don’t settle for a line that’s nearly 30 cents off.
More than half of offshore wagers have been placed on Les Bleus, but oddsmakers have shifted the line toward the draw (+220 to +210). There’s clearly some early, sharper money betting on extra time, as it accounts for just 15% of the tickets.
The total has been set at just two goals, and public bettors have been quick to jump on the over with more than 80% of bets. The market has noticed but isn’t fazed, and the juice is now shaded toward the under (-122).
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07-06-18 08:04 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Brazil vs. Belgium (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Brazil +115, Belgium +268, Draw +240
Odds to Advance: Brazil -165, Belgium +150
Brazil are the +117 favorites and are getting the majority of public action of moneyline bets, but the line is moving in the direction of Belgium and the draw.
Some of that has been caused by bettors choosing to take Belgium +0.5 goals (-130) and sportsbooks needing to move all the odds. It’s easy to understand why bettors feel Belgium are a live underdog, even after narrowly escaping Japan to get here, but Brazil will pose a much different challenge.
The total opened at 2.5, and after initial movement on the over, the juice has settled back down to the opener of -118. Just like the early match, public bettors have flocked to take the over, accounting for 78% of O/U tickets.
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07-06-18 08:04 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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England vs. Sweden, 10 a.m. ET, Fox
England -112
Sweden +390
Draw +225
Bet to Watch:
England To Win By 1 Goal +246 (Bookmaker)
After England won only their second of eight major tournament penalty shootouts, and first at a World Cup, the English media are starting to believe that anything is possible. “Football’s coming home” as far as fans of the Three Lions are concerned, but if their team is to lift the trophy for the first time in more than 50 years, there are a few roadblocks still to overcome.
Sweden are, without question, a favorable quarterfinal opponent, but that’s not to say Saturday’s match in Samara will be plain sailing for Gareth Southgate’s men. It never is as far as England are concerned, nor is it when they come to blows with this weekend’s challengers.
England have, after all, won just one of their last eight competitive meetings with the Swedes, who have developed a liking for what has become a familiar underdog status under coach Janne Andersson. Indeed, since exiting Euro 2016 and waving goodbye to their greatest-ever player in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, there has been a realization that without a star name to call upon, the players have needed to accept their limitations and, in a roundabout way, turn that into a strength.
The Scandinavians have shown this summer and well beforehand just how difficult they are to break down, simply by sticking to their rigid positions when out of possession and sitting deep. In the past 18 months, they’ve beaten Portugal, France and Italy, so they aren’t to be underestimated, keeping five clean sheets in their last six matches.
It’s relatively clear how the pattern of this match will play out, with Sweden having had a lower possession share (36%) at this World Cup than any of the remaining teams. Plus, they’re well-aware that England are struggling to create meaningful chances from open play.
England have the tournament’s top scorer in their ranks, and Harry Kane will know that if he can add to his six-goal tally, he may well wrap up the Golden Boot. While there are those who will point to his duties as the penalty-kick taker as the main reason for his success this summer, he’s taken the chances that have come his way. Plus, his performance against Colombia was arguably the Tottenham star’s best all-around display of the tournament.
Sweden may have conceded only twice, but they have allowed their opponents the most shots on goal (61) of the quarterfinalists, and Kane doesn’t need a second invitation to shoot or indeed score. With odds over evens on the striker to do so at any time, that’s a bet that’s well worth considering, but I like the winning margin odds for England in this one.
It’s never straightforward when they are involved, after all, and Southgate’s charges are the only side remaining that are yet to keep a clean sheet. While their quality should win out, you can bank on a tight result.
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07-07-18 07:58 AM |
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