Mexico will advance and top the group with a draw, while Sweden likely need a victory to advance. However, bettors don’t have much faith in the European side, with just 18% of tickets on Sweden (+223) to win. Mexico are listed at +141 and attracting more than 60% of bets.
Similar to Sweden’s last match against Germany, the majority of bettors believe the total will go under (2.5). With lopsided action on the under, I think there’s plenty of contrarian value on the over (2.5) at +125.
Public bettors are not forecasting any trouble for Germany as they’re receiving more than 80% of bets both on the moneyline (-465) and goal-line (-2). Only 7% of bettors are taking a chance on South Korea despite the potential — albeit unlikely — 15-1 payout.
Even with a high total of three goals, the majority of tickets have come in on the over.
Brazil are sizable favorites to beat Serbia, but a draw would be enough for them to advance. Depending on the early results in Group F, their opponent could be Germany, so it’s not a given they’d want to win this match. Even so, more than 70% of bets are on both the Brazil moneyline (-187) and goal-line (-1).
Switzerland will advance with a win (-154) or draw (+250) against Costa Rica, although they can still advance with a loss (+600). Seven out of every 10 bets have come in on the Swiss to be victorious, and all the recent line movement has gone their way as well.
A low total of 2 goals hasn’t led bettors off the under, which is being offered at +125 odds.
Public bettors feel very confident in Colombia after their strong showing against Poland, and 73% of tickets has come in on Los Cafeteros to get another win vs. Senegal. They likely need a victory to advance, while Senegal just need a draw.
Despite the lopsided action, the line has only risen from -109 to -114, so sportsbooks haven’t been too fazed. Senegal have also looked good through two matches and are setting up to be a worthy contrarian play to get a win (+362) or draw (+269).
Bettors are forecasting goals with three out of every four bets coming in on the over (2.5).
Before the tournament, few would have predicted Japan to be favored in this matchup. They’re tied at the top of Group H and will automatically advance with a win/draw, and could even make it through with a loss.
Oddsmakers list Japan at +164 to get the win and that’s where 47% of bettors are putting their money. The market has reacted to the 41% of tickets on Poland, though.
There are just 12% of tickets on the draw (+225) which could be a good angle to take considering how even these teams are.
The majority of bettors (79%) are hoping to see the total go over 2.5 goals.
Panama and Tunisia have already officially been eliminated, but both will still be playing for pride and a win to close out the tournament. Tunisia are the odds-on favorites (-115) and attracting 63% of moneyline bets and 65% spread bets.
Odds have shifted in Panama’s favor since opening, signaling a bit of reverse-line movement on the upset.
Bettors are just about 50/50 on the total of 2.5 goals, but the sharper money has been placed on the over.
It’s probably more beneficial for both clubs to play for runners-up in the group since half of the tournament bracket is so stacked already (Argentina-France, Uruguay-Portugal, Brazil-Mexico). The other side, which the second place finisher would enter, consists of Spain-Russia, Croatia-Denmark and Sweden-Switzerland.
Just over half the wagers is on Belgium (+216) to win, with just 26% on England (+168) and 22% on the draw (+203). It’s a difficult match to bet on since the teams’ intentions are unclear.
Over/Under bettors are also split on this total of 2.5 (u-135) even though both teams have been scoring at will.
Beer money plays
Colombia 3-0 +1400
Japan 2-1 +900
Tunisia 3-1 +1400
Belgium/England 0-0 +650..predicted snoozefest. It is not an advantage for either to win. This should be interesting to see if anyone attacks.
"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion
WC record 7-14-1 -5.91
Not good so far but still time to make it up
10 am's should be fun
Poland/Japan
A flip in the line here at 5dimes as Poland was a dog at +195/Japan +164 last night. Poland now a slight fav at +183/Japan +189. We have seen this scenerio a couple times now where a team that needs a result is playing a team desperate just to salvage the expierience of the WC for there fans. (Costa Rica yesterday and Peru the day before) Poland 8th in fifa ranking while Japan 61st. Think Poland definetely scores here so I will play this match a couple different ways.
Poland tt over 1 -125
Poland/Japan draw +212
Columbia/Senegal
Columbia comes off a much needed 3-0 win after losing to Japan in there opener. Senegal just needs a draw here to get through. I'll play the draw with confidence enough that Senegal can score if they need to.
Columbia/Senegal draw +267
Also gonna take a shot on Japan not to advance from group H at +625
This scenerio would mean Poland beats Japan and Columbia and Senegal draw which i could see as a likely outcome.