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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Heat and Spurs INFO
from whowins.com
Schedule and 2013-14 Results
Regular Season Records: San Antonio 62-20, Miami 54-28
Game 1 on Thursday, 05 June: Miami at San Antonio, 9:00pmEDT
Game 2 on Sunday, 08 June: Miami at San Antonio, 8:00pmEDT
Game 3 on Tuesday, 10 June: San Antonio at Miami, 9:00pmEDT
Game 4 on Thursday, 12 June: San Antonio at Miami, 9:00pmEDT
Game 5* on Sunday, 15 June: Miami at San Antonio, 8:00pmEDT
Game 6* on Tuesday, 17 June: San Antonio at Miami, 9:00pmEDT
Game 7* on Friday, 20 June: Miami at San Antonio, 9:00pmEDT
* if needed
HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Playing Game 1 @ H:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team playing Game 1 @ H (San Antonio) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2014 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 835-413 (.669)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 163-83 (.663)
series record, NBA only, all rounds: 347-120 (.743)
series record, NBA only, Finals round: 48-19 (.716)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 836-412 (.670)
Game 1 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 166-80 (.675)
Game 1 record, NBA only, all rounds: 343-124 (.734)
Game 1 record, NBA only, Finals round: 50-17 (.746)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1248 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2014 NHL and NBA Semifinals rounds. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.
SERIES NOTES:
Pre-series assessment: In the 2013-14 NBA regular season, the San Antonio Spurs finished eight games ahead of the Miami Heat. From 1947 through the 2014 NBA Semifinals round, when NBA teams led their best-of-7 playoff series opponents by eight regular-season games, they have posted a best-of-7 playoff series record of 21-6 (.778) in those series against those opponents. MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1250 is the 54th best-of-7 NBA playoff series for the San Antonio Spurs, and the 31st for the Miami Heat. In best-of-7 NBA playoff series, the San Antonio Spurs have an all-rounds series record of 33-20, a Finals-round series record of 4-1, and a Game 1 record of 33-20 (with an active ten-Game 1 winning streak), while the Miami Heat have an all-rounds series record of 22-8 (with an active 11-series winning streak), a Finals-round series record of 3-1, and a Game 1 record of 16-14. Series 1250 is the second best-of-7 NBA playoff series meeting between the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat. The 2014 NBA Finals are a re-match of the 2013 NBA Finals, won by the Miami Heat.
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06-05-14 08:05 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-4.5, 198.5)
The San Antonio Spurs wish to atone for last season’s collapse against the Miami Heat when the highly anticipated rematch in the NBA Finals begins on Thursday in San Antonio. The Spurs led by five with 28.2 seconds to go in Game 6 of last year’s finals before the Heat rallied to win and then claimed the title with a Game 7 victory. Miami is vying to become the first team to win three straight titles since the Los Angeles Lakers (2000-02).
The finals rematch is the first since the Chicago Bulls defeated the Utah Jazz in back-to-back years in 1997-98. San Antonio defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder in six games in the Western Conference finals while the Heat won the Eastern Conference crown by dispatching of the Indiana Pacers in six games. Spurs point guard Tony Parker is expected to play in the opener despite further injuring an ankle in the series finale against Oklahoma City on Saturday. The Heat are in the finals for the fourth straight season since LeBron James opted to take his talents to South Beach.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Spurs as 3.5-point home faves for Game 1. The total opened 198.5.
INJURY REPORT: Spurs - PG Tony Parker (Probable, ankle).
WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "Despite all of the craziness that happened in the Playoffs, we are down to the same two teams in the Finals that squared off a year ago. The big question mark for the Spurs is the health of guard Tony Parker, who sprained his ankle in the series vs. the Thunder. Parker is crucial to the Spurs plans and if he's slowed down, that could spell trouble for San Antonio. Conversely, the Heat's Dwayne Wade has been used sparingly to this point, Miami could very well have an early advantage in this series." Covers Expert Nick Parsons
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The matchup the Spurs have wanted since they lost the 2013 Finals to the Heat last June. This time around, the Spurs have home-court advantage and are -127 favorites to win. We opened Game 1 with the Spurs -3.5 favorites and quickly moved them to -4, since that move we have seen good two-way action with 63 percent of the action on the Spurs to cover the spread." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT THE HEAT: The possibility looms that James will opt for free agency on July 1 and he continues to dodge the topic of whether or not he will stick with Miami. The standout forward is averaging 27.1 points, 6.8 rebounds and five assists in the postseason as the Heat went 12-3 over the first three rounds. What isn’t up for debate is that James badly wants to win another title as he certainly took notice of the comments from Tim Duncan, who insisted San Antonio will win this time around. “They’ve been preparing for this moment – we have as well,” James told reporters. “No one is entitled. This is no one’s championship. It isn’t ours, it isn’t theirs. It’s two teams fighting for it.”
ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker told a French radio station on Tuesday that he will play in the opener despite the injury that caused him to miss the second half of the finale against the Thunder. Parker suffered the injury in Game 4 of the first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks and tweaked it again in Game 4 of the series against the Thunder before the pain sidelined him. “I gritted my teeth,” Parker told RMC Sport in France. “I did not mean to abandon my teammates. But the pain was too strong in the sixth game. I could not really play anymore.” Parker is averaging 17.2 points and 4.9 assists in the postseason.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 4-1 in Spurs last five overall.
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06-05-14 08:10 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Sports Wagers
NBA Finals – Game 1
SAN ANTONIO -4½ -105 over Miami
(Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)
Yes, defense wins championships, as long as it is paired with a good-enough offense to get to the Finals. The team with the better defensive rating during the regular season has won 19 of the past 30 Finals and with home court edge they have won the first game by 5 points or more 86% of the time. The importance of defense favors the Spurs. They were the better defense in the regular season, ranking fourth in points allowed per 100 possessions while Miami finished 11th. The Heat would be the first team to win the championship while finishing outside the league's top 10 defenses since the 2001 Lakers (21st). Miami hasn't yet shown the ability to turn on its defense for extended stretches during the playoffs and they played some very average teams to get here.
It’s safe to suggest that the Spurs and Heat were equals last year and one could make a strong case for the Heat getting extremely lucky in that fateful Game 6. This year they are not equal. While San Antonio has seen a number of key players improve this season — Manu Ginobili has bounced back, Kawhi Leonard continues to grow, Tiago Splitter is better, Boris Diaw is playing the best ball of his life — a Miami team that lost Mike Miller and hasn’t gotten much from Greg Oden or Michael Beasley seems to have taken a half-step backwards this season. The Heat’s interior defense is an area San Antonio can exploit. If Luis Scola of the Pacers can abuse Bosh on the low block, which he often did, what damage might Tim Duncan do? And, assuming Tony Parker’s ankle is healthy, which Miami perimeter defender is going to keep him out of the paint? LeBron can’t be everywhere.
The Spurs’ depth gives them a greater margin for error and their chemistry on both ends right now is second-to-none. Furthermore, San Antonio has been playing against high level competition for the last few weeks, while Miami will likely face an adjustment period after playing a depressed Eastern Conference and an offensively-deficient Indiana team. Even though extra motivation concept is mostly sports movie myth, Duncan’s “this time we’re going to do it,” declaration is hard to dismiss. When a team as skilled, precise and focused as the Spurs are right now, it may be foolish to go against them in the tone setting first game.
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06-05-14 08:24 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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For the second straight season, the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat are set to square off in the NBA Finals. We'll go through what is the truth about this series and what is complete bunk about these two teams with the series starting Thursday night in San Antonio.
FACT
Home court advantage will make all the difference: It's what made the difference last season when these two teams played, so why not now? The Spurs have a ridiculous points per 100 possessions of 122.4 over the course of their last eight games played here at the AT&T Center, and they have scored at least 104 points in all of those games. San Antonio is legitimately perhaps the most dangerous team in basketball when playing in its own arena, and short of the first couple games against the Dallas Mavericks, there isn't a team which has really shown the spunk to be able to go out and win in the Lone Star State against the men in black and silver.
Tony Parker's injury is going to be a difference maker: We're going to talk about the depth of the Spurs in just a second, but here's the one place where we are sure that the Heat can take a massive edge. Mario Chalmers, LeBron James, and Dwyane Wade have averaged 4.2 steals per game in these playoffs, and they are three of the best in the league at stepping in front of passes and taking them the other way for easy transition buckets. If the Spurs are really going to be missing Parker, even if it's just for a few extra minutes on a nightly basis in this series, Miami should be able to take advantage, as Manu Ginobili, Cory Joseph, and Patty Mills just don't make up a great distributing point guard trio beyond Parker.
FICTION
The Heat are fine without Mike Miller: When you really look at these two teams, part of the reason why they are here once again is because they have basically the same rosters that they did a year ago. However, the Spurs have added an assassin from long range in Marco Belinelli, while Miami has lost one of its top guns in Miller. Just go back to that three-point play for the Heat in Game 6. Part of the reason why Ray Allen had the opportunity for a respectable look from downtown is because Tim Duncan wasn't on the court. He really didn't have anyone to guard with Miller out there as well at the de facto power forward position with James at the center spot. Now with Miller gone to Memphis, who is Miami going to put out there in that spot? Norris Cole? It's not nearly going to be good enough if this series plays out exactly as it did last season.
Age has caught up to the Spurs: Though we do believe that this is the end of the road for 37-year old Tim Duncan, we definitely challenge the thought that this team is too old to be effective. Sure, the Duncan/Parker/Ginobili troika has 103 years on this earth between them, but when you look up and down the lineup aside from that, there isn't much in the way of 30-somethings. Head Coach Gregg Popovich has done a fantastic job of limiting the minutes which all of his vets have played this year, and that has kept them fresh for this run in the playoffs. Meanwhile, there really is nothing but 30-somethings on the Heat right now (ok, James and Bosh are both 29), and that really shows that the window of opportunity is closing on this team without making another splash in free agency. If depth wins this series (and we think that it will), the Spurs are going to be the Larry O'Brien Trophy holders in another two weeks.
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06-06-14 12:21 AM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Here are three trends to pay attention to entering the NBA Finals:
Favorites, Under Rule Game 1
Looking for a strong start? Take the favorite and the Under in the opening game. Over the past seven NBA championship series, the favorite has covered the Game 1 spread six times. San Antonio's stunning 92-88 road victory over the Heat in the opening game of last year's NBA Finals is the only time in that stretch the underdog has covered.
The Under has been nearly as strong a trend over that span. Teams boast a 1-5-1 O/U mark over the previous seven openers, with Miami's 121-106 shootout win over Oklahoma City in 2012 the only Over in that time.
Miami Means More Offense
The Heat will participate in their fourth consecutive NBA Finals and their presence has meant more Overs than in seasons past. Miami and its Finals opponents - San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Dallas - have combined to go a respectable 9-7-2 O/U over the previous three championship series, running in stark contrast to the woeful 6-15-1 mark compiled by teams in the previous four NBA Finals.
Both the Heat and Spurs have been strong Over plays all year. Miami went 44-38 O/U in the regular season and is 11-4 O/U in the playoffs, while the Spurs were 44-37-1 O/U during the year and are 10-8 O/U in the postseason.
Spurs Stout at Home
It's one thing for a team to protect its home court, it's another for that team to do so against formidable road opponents. The Spurs, who will host the Heat in Thursday's NBA Finals opener, have covered in seven straight home games against teams with winning road records.
That stretch has seen the Spurs reel off seven consecutive home victories by an average of 23.7 points against the Thunder, Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers, who combined to go 71-52 on the road in the regular season. The Heat were 22-19 on the road in the regular season and are 4-3 away from home in the playoffs.
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06-06-14 12:26 AM |
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