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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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VR Steam Read and Market Analysis
NFL Divisional Round Playoffs :
NOS at SEA...
Movers confirmed True Steam on SAINTS & UNDER immediately when line opened up..since then Public Money on UNDER has driven the TOTAL down to as low as 43.5 so we may see some OVER steam to attempt a nice middle,or even an outfit seeing value on OVER at that adjustment..
The Spread has gone back up to as high as -10 due to a ton of Public Money on Straights, Teasers, & Parlays..but also because of True Steam..Mover confirmed his group bought SEA down to -7 and fired so wiseguys disagree on the SIDE..
Bottom line..when this game kicks off books will need the OVER and the Saints, especially on Teasers.
IND at NE...
Wiseguys & Public AGREED on COLTS +7.5 and drove the line down to -7..but at that price, mover confirmed his outfit bought the 1/2 point and backed the PATS -6.5, so another disagreement between betting syndicates based on the price..
But with a TON of Public $$$ on COLTS Straight, Parlays, Teasers, and even MONEY-LINE..books will need a rare result, the FAV..
Wiseguys & Public DISAGREE on Total with movers steaming UNDER and casual bettors going OVER HEAVY on Straights, Parlays, & Teasers..and with this being the Late Game, more exposure's expected meaning books will be hoping the steam is on point.
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01-11-14 08:24 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Saints at Seahawks: What bettors need to know
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 46)
The New Orleans Saints are coming off their first postseason road win in franchise history, but the degree of difficulty will rise dramatically when they visit the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks on Saturday. It will be a rematch of a Dec. 2 game in Seattle, when the Seahawks manhandled New Orleans 34-7 and held the Saints to their lowest point total since October 2008. "This is definitely going to be a personal game," New Orleans cornerback Keenan Lewis said. "They embarrassed us last time."
The Seahawks have embarrassed a number of opponents, particularly on their home field, where they are 15-1 over the past two seasons. Among the reasons for Seattle's dominance at CenturyLink Field is its rabid fan base known as the 12th Man, which set a Guiness Book World Record for crowd noise with a reading of 137.6 decibels in the thrashing of the Saints last month. The Seahawks are hoping to see the return of explosive wide receiver Percy Harvin, who has played in only one game since returning from offseason hip surgery.
TV: 4:35 p.m., Fox.
LINE: Seattle opened -8.5 and is now -8. The total is down two points from the opening 48.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 98 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 21 mph.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (12-5): New Orleans' high-powered offense struggles away from home, managing only 36 points in three December road losses before pulling out a last-second 26-24 win at Philadelphia last week. Drew Brees, the only QB with three 5,000-yard seasons, threw for 250 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions against the Eagles but now must contend with a defense that limited him to 147 yards and held the Saints to 188 total yards - the lowest total since Brees and head coach Sean Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006. New Orleans overcame an injury to running back Pierre Thomas to churn out 185 rushing yards against Philadelphia - including 97 by former first-round pick Mark Ingram - while its defense held the NFL's leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, to 77 yards on 21 carries.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (13-3): Seattle leveled off after steamrolling the Saints, losing at San Francisco and falling to Arizona for its first home defeat in two seasons before closing the campaign with a dominant defensive performance against St. Louis. Wilson was being mentioned for league MVP honors at one point in the season but he stumbled down the stretch, averaging 171.3 yards passing and throwing for four touchdowns and three interceptions in the four games following the beatdown of New Orleans. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 1,257 yards and 12 touchdowns but he cracked 100 yards only once in the last eight games. The Seahawks led the league in fewest points (14.4) and yards (273.3) allowed per game while registering an NFL-high 28 interceptions - eight by cornerback Richard Sherman.
TRENDS:
* Saints are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Seahawks are 12-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Saints last four Divisional Playoffs games.
* Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last five vs. NFC.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brees owns the highest completion percentage (67.0) in postseason history and is the only QB with three 400-yard games in the playoffs.
2. Wilson has 24 overall wins and 15 at home in his first two seasons, the most by a quarterback in the Super Bowl era.
3. Saints TE Jimmy Graham had 16 TDs during the regular season but was limited to three catches for 42 yards and a score by Seattle.
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01-11-14 08:34 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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NFL Prop Shop: Divisional Weekend
By SEAN MURPHY
The postseason continues in the NFL with Divisional Weekend getting underway Saturday. Why not spice things up with some player prop bets? Covers Expert Sean Murphy opens the doors of the NFL Prop Shop and gives you his favorite player prop picks for this weekend's action:
Most passing yards
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Tom Brady (New England Patriots)
I'll take a shot with Andrew Luck at a healthy underdog price on Saturday.
Here's my thinking: I fully expect the Colts to be playing from behind for much of this game. That means we should see Luck airing it out early and often. I'm aware that the Colts want to be a run-first team, but this is an awfully tough spot to be hard-headed. Luck rallied the offense last Saturday, and I believe he'll be asked to do the same this week.
Take: Luck
Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
I have the ultimate respect for the Panthers defense, however, we've seen Colin Kaepernick take his game to another level in the playoffs time and time again, and I expect that to be the case again on Sunday afternoon.
Cam Newton has played on the big stage before (in SEC and BCS Championship Games), but the NFL playoffs are another animal. He'll be up against a 49ers defense that is playing 'angry' right now (credit that quote to former 49er and NFL Network analyst Eric Davis) - a unit that should be able to control a good, but not great receiving corps.
Take: Kaepernick
Most rushing yards
Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. DeAngelo Williams (Carolina Panthers)
I supported Frank Gore last Sunday against Green Bay, but I'm switching gears this week.
I believe we'll see the 49ers take a more pass-heavy approach against an aggressive Panthers defense on Sunday. Gore will get his share of carries, but I'm not sure he'll create a lot of 'splash' plays.
While DeAngelo Williams hasn't been all that consistent, he does boast big play potential and could rip off a couple of big runs if the 49ers come in a little too focused on Cam Newton.
Take: Williams
Most pass receptions
Keenan Allen (San Diego Chargers) vs. Julius Thomas (Denver Broncos)
If this were a play on which receiver would have a bigger impact on the final result, I might be inclined to back Julius Thomas, as he likely has greater touchdown potential. However, when it comes to receptions, I'll go with Keenan Allen.
Allen was a virtual non-factor in last week's win over the Bengals, but that only serves to give us better line value here. The Chargers know that he needs to play a bigger role in the offense this Sunday if they're going to pull off another shocker in Denver. If they're playing from behind and Philip Rivers is forced to sling it all over the field, that suits our purposes even better.
Take: Allen
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01-11-14 08:42 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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MTI, Killer Sports
2013 NFL PLAYOFF TOTALS GAME OF THE YEAR
Indianapolis at New England OVER 51.5
The Colts never give up. They fight and fight and fight. They know that their defense is not going to hold down the Patriots' offense and Tom Brady. The Colts' know that they allowed 40-plus points in three of their last seven games.
We expect Indianapolis to feature a no-huddle and a fast, efficient attack. They cannot adopt a conservative attitude. They are on the road and a big dog and it is lose or go home.
Indianapolis qualifies for a playoff-only system that is 11-0 OU since the start of the 2010 NFL season. In the playoffs, when an underdog gets a team off a bye week, and they are off a regulation win, they are 11-0 OU, eclipsing the posted number by an average of more than 17 points per game, as long as the total is at least 36. The SDQL text is:
playoffs=1 and D and op:week + 2=week and total>36 and season>=2010 and p:OT=0
There was only one qualifying game in 2011, but last season there were five and all of them went over by DOUBLE-DIGITS.
Teams that come back from late deficits in the playoffs to win are often vulnerable on defense the following week. The coaches know this and try to compensate with offense. In fact, since the 2006 NFL season, teams are 6-0 OU in the playoffs as a road dog the week following a win over a non-divisional opponent in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The SDQL text is:
playoffs==1 and AD and p:W and p:NDIV and p:M3<0 and NB and season>=2006
Note that teams in this spot have gone over by an average of 13.6 ppg.
In the final week of the season, the Patriots rushed the ball 43 times for 267 yards. It was the most rushing yards they have had since the 2008 season. Neither Blount nor Ridley caught a pass out of the backfield. Many in the media are citing the Patriots' rejuvenated rushing game and expect them to feature the run here. Belichick is no dummy. He simply wanted to save Brady for the upcoming duel perhaps fool the Colts into preparing for a rushing attack.
We have hard numbers supporting this theory. New England is 10-0 OU at home after any game in which they rushed the ball 25-plus times and had at least one rushing TD. The SDQL is:
team=Patriots and H and 0=20121001 and p:rushes>=25
New England has ZOOMED over the posted total by an average of 16.4 ppg in this spot, scoring an average of 39.4 ppg. Note that four of the games are from THIS season.
It is also worth mentioning that the Patriots are 7-0 OU (13.21 ppg) after a game in which Stevan Ridley did not catch a pass.
Belichick is concerned about this one and he should be. He KNOWS that going up by 20 points in the first half does not mean that the game is won when Andrew Luck is the opposing QB. He will not pull the plug on his offense until they can take a knee. Neither team can possibly be thinking, "If we score 27 points we should win." Take the OVER.
MTi's FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 37 Indianapolis 34
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01-11-14 09:00 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Wayne Root
SUNDAY NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAMES
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INNER CIRCLE---DENVER
On Sunday, the San Diego Chargers will invade Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Chargers ended the season playing some great football. They ended the season beating the Broncos and the Chiefs. They are coming off of a game in which they dominated the Cincinnati Bengals. The Broncos will be well rested and sporting the league’s most potent offense. This year, Peyton Manning threw for 5,477 yard and 55 touchdowns. Running back, Knowshon Moreno, rushed for more than a thousand yards on the season, even being out several weeks an injury. The Denver defense will have to be able to stop the running game of the Chargers if they are to give the offense a chance to get going. After defeating the Bengals 27-10, the Chargers will be looking forward to upsetting the Broncos one more time. However, it is very difficult to beat the same team the same season especially when they last played about 3 weeks ago.Defense used to win in playoff games but not any more. With the rule changes made to the QB's, WR's and the restraints placed upon the defenses, it's all about scoring!! Peyton Manning knows after last season brutal loss against Baltimore that time may be running out. TAKE DENVER
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PINNACLE---CAROLINA....DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR
The San Francisco 49ers will invade Bank of America Stadium in order to take on the Carolina PanthersThey played their first playoff game against the Green Bay Packers, who were more than game for this one but did manage to move to round 2. The 49ers had a great season by most standards, but suffered the
consequences of being in the same division with the Seattle Seahawks. This meant that the Niners had to enter the playoffs by way of wildcard birth. Wild Card teams that win their first game and then hit the road for game 2 almost never cover the pointspread.The Panthers got off to slow start this season, but they picked up steam with an 8 game winning streak that placed them on top the NFC South. They have played great on the defensive end of the ball. Quarterback, Cam Newton, has had a solid season, throwing for 3,379 yards and 24 touchdowns. Smart money lit up the Sportsbooks after hearing that Steve Smith is ready to play. Public perception is the 49ers have advantage on defense and maybe even at the QB spot but if you watch the games this year or have looked at the numbers neither are true. Just as dominant will be the Carolina defense, since week 6 Panthers have only given up over 20 points once and they keep it going this week. TAKE CAROLINA
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01-11-14 09:32 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Who's On What: "Noteworthy" Cappers and Tally
Colts: 25
Prediction Machine, Football Crusher, Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited, Int Picks, Kelso, Dunkel, Hondo
(Saw 2 separate services selling the Colts moneyline)
Patriots: 23
Root, Norm Hitzges, Allen Eastman GOW, OSKEIM, Ecks & Bacon, Executive, Northcoast, Raw, Cappers Access, Scott Sprietzer, Spartan, Bob Balfe
OVER: 10
Hondo, MTI GOY, King Creole GOY, some random had GOY also
UNDER: 14
Ben Burns, Wunderdog, Northcoast, Vegas Runner, Prediction Machine, Dunkel
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01-12-14 12:46 AM |
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