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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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MTI Killer Sports, Ed Meyer
5-Star New Orleans +2.5 over PHILADELPHIA - The Eagles have been terrible when hosting a team that does not run the ball much. Philadelphia is 0-12 ATS at home vs a team that has averaged 25 or fewer rushes per game season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Eagles and H and oA(rushes)<=25 and date>=20101003
Note that they were 0-4 ATS in this spot THIS season.
Also, the Eagles are 0-14 ATS at home the week after a game in which they passed for fewer than 350 yards and Riley Cooper did not have a 24-plus yard reception. The SDQL text here is:
H and Eagles:Riley Cooper:longest reception<24 and p:PY<350 and NB and date>=20110101
Note that they have lost each of their last six straight up in this spot.
The Saints' offense is ranked fourth in the league for fewest turnovers this season. This is another poor spot for Philadelphia, as they are 0-10 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when hosting a team that has averaged fewer than 1.35 turnovers per game season-to-date. Check it out using this SDQL text:
team=Eagles and H and oA(TO)<1.35 and season>=2011
They were in just this spot three times this season and they lost all three as a favorite.
We had the Eagles over 7.5 wins for the season and we had LeSean McCoy to win the rushing title at +1800. However, the reason was their weak schedule, not because they were a great team. The Saints outplayed the Patriots in New England and the Panthers in Carolina, but lost both games. Philadelphia played four playoff teams this season - they lost as a home favorite to the Chargers, lost as a home favorite to the Chiefs and were hammered 52-20 by the Broncos. The did beat the Packers, but Green Bay was without Aaron Rogers.
The NFC East was a very weak division - especially on defense. The Redskins were ranked #32 of 32 teams in yards allowed per opponent's pass attempt in 2013. The Cowboys were ranked #32 of 32 teams in total yards allowed this season. It's no wonder that the Eagles' offensive numbers look good as they got each of these teams twice during the regular season. The Eagles also faced the Bears (#30 in total yards allowed) and the Vikings (#31 in total yards allowed). So, the Eagles got to face the three worst defenses in the league and they got the Cowboys twice.
Did the Eagles get to face the team ranked #29 of 32 teams in total yards allowed in 2013? No, because THEY are ranked #29.
Philadelphia started the season 2-5 and needed a huge run to get to the playoffs, including an emotional 24-22 win over the Cowboys in Dallas in the season finale. The Saints started 5-0 and ended the season with a romp over the Bucs. The Saints belong in the playoffs and the Eagles know they were fortunate to get there.
The Saints have so many offensive weapons. They have a raft of excellent receivers and they have running backs that can catch the ball, although Pierre Thomas only had one reception for three yards in their win over the Bucs. This is actually a positive indicator, as the Saints are 8-0 ATS after a home win in which Pierre Thomas had fewer than three receptions.
I'll take Sean Payton over Chip Kelly and I'll take Drew Brees over Nick Foles. The Saints should be able to expose the Eagles as a team that is not a real contender. Grab the 2.5 points.
MTi's FORECAST: New Orleans 31 PHILADELPHIA 17
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01-04-14 07:30 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Prediction Machine
Saturday, January 4 at 4:35 PM ET: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 @ Indianapolis Colts (Covers 54.3%), OVER 46.5 (Covers 52.4%)
ATS Play Type: Light
O/U Play Type: Light
The Vitals:
Projected Score: Kansas City 23.8 - Indianapolis 24.3
SU Pick and Win%: Indianapolis wins 51.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Pick and Win%: Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 covers 54.3%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #2
ATS Wager for $50 player: $20
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (46.5) 52.4%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #3
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $0
The Teams: KC IND
Straight-Up Record 11-5 11-5
Against-the-Spread Record 9-7 9-6
Over/Under Record 7-9 8-8
Avg. Points For vs. Against 26.9-19.1 24.4-21.0
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #5 #3
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #7 #8
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #2 #5
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #4 #5
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #5 #4
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 57.0%/43.0% #60.0%/40.0%
Turnover Margin +18 +13
Injuries to Watch: Tamba Hali/Justin Houston, OLBs, Kansas City Chiefs - While it is impossible to put much stock into what Kansas City did in Week 17, it appears as though the team has done everything it can to get Hali and Houston as fresh and healthy as possible heading into the playoffs. With both star outside linebackers hobbled throughout the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense noticeably diminished down the stretch. This was actually more apparent against the run than the pass, and the competition was certainly tougher late in the year, but beating a below average offensive line to put pressure on Andrew Luck will be important to the Chiefs remaining competitive in this game. Also of note are the health of Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and Colts cornerback Greg Toler.
Anticipated Line Movement: Three of the four Wild Card weekend games have 2.5 point spreads, including both home teams on Saturday favored by just under a field goal. Neither line has budged all week (not even the juice), so do not expect much to change with this spread as we get closer to the game. Of the three games with 2.5 point spreads, action is most evenly distributed in this game.
The Breakdown: We have tended to fade both of these teams throughout the season. Neither is as good as its best win nor as bad as its worst loss. The rankings above note how each team compares to the other seven teams playing this weekend. Of the Wild Card teams, the Colts are essentially average to below average in everything except for pass offense where they rank as the least efficient team. This is a strong reflection of where this offense has gone since Reggie Wayne's injury. Since Wayne went down against Denver, Luck has completed less than 60% of his passes (59.8%) for just 6.4 yards-per-pass (despite playing Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville a total of five times in that stretch - against teams with above average defenses in those games, Luck is just 112-of-194, 57.7%, for 1,181 yards, 6.1 yards-per-pass). Kansas City should be as healthy as they have been in two months and appears to actually win every individual matchup. Though playing on the road, the Chiefs figure to fare well with explosive players on both sides of the field getting to play inside on turf. Look for an evenly matched game that's a toss-up straight-up. Value is in the underdog.
Boxscore: Boxscore
KC @ IND NO @ PHI SD @ CIN SF @ GB
Saturday, January 4 at 8:10 PM ET:
New Orleans Saints +2.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (Covers 51.8%), OVER 53.5 (Covers 58.9%)
ATS Play Type: Not Playable
O/U Play Type: Normal
The Vitals:
Projected Score: New Orleans 29.4 - Philadelphia 31.1
SU Pick and Win%: Philadelphia wins 53.7%
Playoffs - Wildcard SU Confidence Rank: #3
ATS Pick and Win%: New Orleans Saints +2.5 covers 51.8%
Playoffs - Wildcard ATS Confidence Rank: #4
ATS Wager for $50 player: $0
O/U Pick and Win%: OVER (53.5) 58.9%
Playoffs - Wildcard O/U Confidence Rank: #2
O/U Wager for $50 Player: $68
The Teams: NO PHI
Straight-Up Record 11-5 10-6
Against-the-Spread Record 8-7 8-8
Over/Under Record 6-10 8-7
Avg. Points For vs. Against 25.9-19.0 27.6-23.9
Strength of Schedule Rank (of all NFL) #2 #7
PM Passing Efficiency Rank #4 #1
PM Rushing Efficiency Rank #7 #1
PM Pass Defense Efficiency Rank #3 #6
PM Rush Defense Efficiency Rank #8 #1
Actual Pass/Run Ratio 63.8%/36.2% #52.6%/47.4%
Turnover Margin 0 +12
Injuries to Watch: Earl Wolff, S, Philadelphia Eagles - These two teams are incredibly healthy at this point in the season. Wolff is the only real question mark in this game. As of Wednesday, he has not practiced this week after re-aggravating a knee injury that cost him five games this season. Without Wolff in the starting lineup, more pressure will be put on slot corner Brandon Boykin, safety starter Pat Chung and cover linebacker Mychal Kendricks to keep tight end Jimmy Graham and running backs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas in check on passing plays. Wolff would not have been able to stop those guys on his own, but the task is even more daunting with the Eagles likely down a man.
Anticipated Line Movement: After watching a poor performance by the Eagles in a narrow victory over the Tony Romo-less Cowboys, the public seems to like New Orleans in this game. Enough squares and sharps are playing against the Saints given their road woes to keep this line from moving off of the Eagles -2.5. The general public lean on New Orleans means this line is unlikely to shift to Philadelphia -3. No other line movement will have much of an impact on our pick.
The Breakdown: This is the lightest play that we have ever published in an NFL Playoff game and it's technically only worth $3 to a normal $50 player. To put that another way, if $50 is 1% of bankroll (our suggested "normal" play), we recommend putting just 0.06% on New Orleans +2.5. In our Power Rankings, the Eagles are actually the slightly better overall team and are playing at home. While that may sound like a lean on Philadelphia to leverage home field advantage and win by more than a field goal, the matchup keeps this game a little closer than that. The Eagles are much better against the run than the pass, which keeps the pass heavy, Drew Brees-led Saints in what appears to be a very close game. With the total, which is a strong opinion for us OVER 53.5, it's worth noting that weather should not be much of a factor in this contest. The temperature may only be 25 degrees, but no wind or precipitation is expected. Also, while the Saints should be able to put up points against an Eagles defense that struggles against the pass, the Saints are much worse against the run than the pass and running the ball is Philadelphia's specialty. Look for a shootout in a close game.
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01-04-14 07:36 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Betting NFL dogs?
Amazing trend will have you thinking moneylines
If you’re thinking about taking the points this NFL Wild Card Weekend, you may want to forget the pointspread all together and go all in on the NFL underdog moneylines.
According to Marc Lawrence, the outright winner in NFL opening-round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980 – an astonishing 89 percent cover rate. Simply put: Whoever wins, covers the spread in the opening round of the NFL postseason.
Last season, the Houston Texas won and covered versus the Cincinnati Bengals, the Green Bay Packers won and covered against the Minnesota Vikings, the Baltimore Ravens won and covered over the Indianapolis Colts, and the Seattle Seahawks won and cover against the Washington Redskins.
In 2011-12, the Texans, Saints, Giants, and Broncos all came away with the SU and ATS victory. In 2010-11, the Seahawks, Jets, Ravens, and Packers were big for fans and bettors during the Wild Card Weekend. In 2009-10, the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Cardinals were good enough for the win and cover. And in 2008-09, the Cardinals, Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles all won SU and ATS.
In fact, the last Wild Card winners to fall short of the spread were the Jacksonville Jaguars, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-29 but couldn’t cover as 2.5-point road favorites in the 2007-08 NFL Wild Card Weekend. The three other Wild Card winners that year – Seahawks, Giants, and Chargers – all managed to exceed the oddsmakers’ expectations.
This weekend, oddsmakers have the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) priced at +115 to win SU versus the Indianapolis Colts, the New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at +130 moneyline underdogs at Philadelphia, the San Diego Chargers (+7) listed at +250 pups in Cincinnati, and the Green Bay Packers (+2.5) are +130 moneyline underdogs at home to San Francisco
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01-04-14 07:48 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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Where the action is: Saturday's Wild Card line moves
The NFL postseason kicks off with Wild Card Weekend. Saturday features a pair of matchups on the board with the Indianapolis Colts hosting the Kansas City Chiefs, while the New Orleans Saints must face the elements as they visit the Philadelphia Eagles.
We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag, about the action on Saturday's games.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts - Open: -1, Move: -2, Move: Pick
Some markets opened the Colts as slight 1-point home favorites while others reacted to the early movement and opened Indianapolis at -2.5. Sharps hit the Colts early on this week, but money has been coming in on the road team over the past 24 hours.
"Sharp play on Friday morning - on KC +2 - so moved them to +1," Perry told Covers. "Another sharp play on the Chiefs this morning, so the line has moved to a pick ‘em. Sixty percent of cash is on Indy."
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles - Open: -2.5, Move: -3
The Eagles opened as high as 3-point home favorites over the Saints, who have notoriously been two-faced away from New Orleans. There has been little-to-no movement on this line until recently, with sharps backing the home favorites earlier Saturday.
"This morning we got sharp play on Philly so moved game to -3," Perry said. "This was first line move of game. Fifty-two percent of cash backing the Eagles."
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01-04-14 08:32 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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"Noteworthy" Cappers: Who's on What???
KC: Raw, Wunderdog, Docs, Paul Leiner, Mighty Quinn, Kelso, Cappers Access, Seabass, Root
IND: Nelly, Mark Lawrence, Ecks, Norm Hitzges, Int Picks, Platinum Sports, Teddy Covers, Northcoast, Lang
OVER: Seabass, Redsuit
UNDER: Platinum Sports, Northcoast, MTI
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01-04-14 09:16 PM |
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wildcat76
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Dec 2005
Posts: 6147
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"Noteworthy" Cappers: Who's on What???
NO: MTI, Root, Northcoast, Osk, Seabass
PHI: Nelly, Mark Lawrence, Raw, Norm Hitzges, Cappers Access, Platinum Sports, Marco D'Angelo, ATS Lock, Football Crusher, Exec
also several services selling PHI ml as a pick
OVER: Prediction Machine, Int Picks
UNDER: Norm Hitzges, Northcoast, Seabass, Platinum Sports
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01-04-14 09:38 PM |
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