A huge sports weekend is already off to an electric start. Friday brings our weekly look at what the Sharps (professional wagerers offshore and in Las Vegas) have been betting so far this week in the NFL. As always, games are presented in rotation order. We’ll only talk about Over/Unders in games where Sharps have already shown early interest…

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY:
Atlanta opened as a 2-point road favorite. Sharps saw enough passion from Tampa Bay this past Monday Night to drop the line down to Tampa Bay +1 or +1.5. The home underdog Bucs will definitely show up in two-team teasers if the market is showing +1.5 or +2 on Sunday. Sharps won with Tampa Bay in straight bets and in teasers in this price range last Monday against Miami.

NY JETS AT BUFFALO:
Buffalo opened at pick-em, and received slight Sharp support on a move up to -1 or -1.5. Oddsmakers would prefer to keep the game out of the teaser window, so you might only see Buffalo -1 on game day unless the public comes in on the Bills. The Jets quality defense would make the team a popular Sharp choice in teasers if the team is getting +1.5 to +2.5 Sunday before kickoff. Some of the games near pick-em have shown big money moves this year right before kickoff. The Jets might get that kind of late Wise Guy support at the highest betting limits because they’re coming off a bye week.

DETROIT AT PITTSBURGH:
The Lions opened at -3. Sharps who like fading teams in divisional letdown spots grabbed Pittsburgh at that price as a home underdog. Sharps POUNDED St. Louis against Indianapolis last Sunday in the hours before kickoff with the Colts coming off a big divisional win at Houston. Detroit is coming off a big divisional win at Chicago, and now must play on the road against an AFC opponent that may not get their juices flowing in the same way. Note that Pittsburgh would also show up in a lot of two-team teasers if the line stays right below a field goal. The Wise Guys will clearly be rooting for Pittsburgh this week.

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA: Philadelphia opened at -3, and was bet up very quickly off the key number. We’re now seeing Philadelphia by as much as -4.5 or -5. Washington has been grading out much worse than the market would have suggested in this type of situation this season. We have our first Over/Under news of the weekend in this game. An opener of 51.5 was bet up to 53. This was a math move based on a projected shootout between Philly’s fast-paced offense and an improving RGIII who’s gaining mobility as he recovers from his knee injury.

SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI:
Not much betting interest here yet. San Diego opened at -1. Some stores are trying out San Diego -1.5. Sharps don’t like betting West Coast teams on the East Coast unless it’s a great situation. San Diego is coming off a big divisional game against Denver. Miami looked so bad this past Monday against Tampa Bay that they’re not inspiring support from anyone. For now, it’s a pass from the Wise Guys on the side and the total pending public action.

BALTIMORE AT CHICAGO:
Most interest here has been on the Under. A total of 47 has fallen to 45.5. That could be partly weather related for a November kickoff in the Windy City. But, Baltimore has been playing a lot of low scoring grinder type games this season. Chicago is -3 on the team side opener. Sharps will fade any public move off the key number. More Wise Guy groups prefer Baltimore +3 than Chicago -3 if it stays locked on that key number.

CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI:
Another game that hasn’t shown much betting interest yet. Sharps may be waiting for game day weather to sort itself out before committing. We can tell you that Sharps aren’t interested in laying the -6 with the Bengals or they would have hit that opener right below a key number. They’re hoping to get as much as +7 on game day if the public comes in on the favorite. If the line doesn’t move, then those betting the game will settle on the Browns +6. Sharps like this Browns defense…and have been making good money on the team whenever Brandon Weeden isn’t allowed to quarterback.

OAKLAND AT HOUSTON:
Sharps have been quiet in a lot of games this week. Their best success recently has come on the big game day bets at the highest possible limits. They’ll only step out midweek right now if they believe a number is too important to pass up. Houston opened at -7 and 42. That’s what we’re seeing in most places at the moment. The Wise Guys would definitely take Oakland if they see +7.5 or better. But, they know this is the second straight “early start time” for a Pacific Coast team. That’s what’s kept them from taking the dog at +7.

ARIZONA AT JACKSONVILLE:
Arizona was bet up from an opener of -6.5 to -7. This surprised some observers because that's a lot for a non-playoff team to lay on the road…and because Jacksonville just won last week. Many Sharps saw Jacksonville’s win as a mirage last week triggered by fluke points. The total was bet up from 40 to 41 because the weather should be good and teams often relax defensively in non-conference matchups.

KANSAS CITY AT DENVER:
Denver opened at -8, and was bet up to -8.5 by position-takers who were hoping that the public might drive the line as high as -10 through the weekend. Oddsmakers are concerned because this game is currently in the teaser window…and the whole world would take Denver down to -2 or -2.5 in teasers if that’s available. We may see many sportsbooks go to -9 quickly just to avoid teaser exposure. The opening Over/Under of 51 was bet down to 49 out of respect for Kansas City’s defense. Check game day weather forecasts to see if those might trigger additional Under bets.

MINNESOTA AT SEATTLE:
Respect for the dog here, as Minnesota +13.5 was bet down to +12. Sharps liked what they saw from the Vikings last week against Washington. And, they believe that having a few extra days to get ready is relevant because Seattle played an early game in the Eastern time zone last week. It doesn’t hurt that Seattle’s been underachieving as big favorites recently. The opening total of 47 was bet down to 45.5 because Seattle’s offense tends to sputter in games they’re not prioritizing.

SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: Not much Sharp action here on an opener of New Orleans -3 with a total of 47.5. Sources tell us most Sharps made this game Saints by three because they have these teams so close together in their Power Ratings. Wise Guy syndicates will fade any public move off the key number. That would most likely involve the public taking the Saints at -3 on their strong home field, with the Sharps buying San Francisco at +3.5 or better if they see it.

GREEN BAY AT NY GIANTS: Oddsmakers posted a high opener of NYG -6.5 because Green Bay would be starting third-team quarterback Scott Tolzien. Sharps thought that was an overreaction given how well Tolzien moved the ball in a losing effort off the bench vs. Philadelphia. They bet Green Bay at +6.5, +6, and +5.5. We’re mostly seeing NYG -5 and -4.5 as we go to press. An opening total of 43 was bet down to 42, and will drop further if game day weather is inhibiting offenses in any way.

NEW ENGLAND AT CAROLINA (Monday Night): The big early move here was on the Over, as an opener of 44 was bet up to 46. Sharps liked what they saw from the New England offense against Pittsburgh right before their bye week. An opening team side line of Carolina -2.5 hasn’t budged. You can tell Sharps don’t like Carolina or they would have jumped at that price right below a key number. They’re hoping to get Patriots +3 after public betting…and would definitely use the Patriots as a dog in two-team teasers if the game stays below the three in the teaser window. You can actually read those Over bets at 44 and 45 as support for New England. If you liked what you saw from the Patriots offense, then Over is a way to bet on New England scoring points without being frustrated by getting only +2.5 as a team side underdog.

That’s it for the weekend. Only two teams have byes this time around…Dallas and St. Louis.

As always, Good Luck Den!

Always a good read!

Thanks Dwight007 ...this is a must read for me.

I locked in a teaser on thurs with Denver -2.5 and Eags +1.5

Eags give up tons of yards but not points...

Can't see Alex Smith keeping pace with Peyton Manning...dink and dunk...white boy punt...

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gl. everyone.............

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