Back again for our weekly look at how Sharps (professional wagerers offshore and in Las Vegas) have been betting the NFL. As we’ve been reporting to you all season, the Wise Guys are really struggling this year on team sides. Their performance on Over/Unders has been better. And, their traditional two-team teaser strategy has generally been in the black.

These 3 facts jump out:

Sharps are having a bad year overall

Sharps are showing less of their cards in early-week betting

Sharps are REALLY struggling on their biggest game-day investments

Sharps are not matching their performances from prior seasons thus far in 2013. Keep that in mind as you weigh their action while making your final decisions.

As always, games are presented in rotation order.

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA:
The big news here is on the total, where an opener of 41.5 has been bet all the way up to 44…with rumors that it could go even higher. Right off the bat, that suggests good weather. But, it’s mostly a reaction to Atlanta’s style of play. Their defense has been surprisingly bad this year, forcing their offense to pass all day. The stats guys with their simulation models were getting a lot higher than 41.5 and 42 in their projections. No interest yet on the team side line of Carolina -7.5. The Panthers will be a popular teaser bet if that line doesn’t move.

MINNESOTA AT DALLAS:
An opener of Dallas -10.5 was bet down to -10. Sharps know that ten is a key number, and they aren’t expecting the public to come in on the Cowboys at such a high number. The Wise Guys made a percentage play on the dog…but not one that was strong enough to move below the ten. The total is up a tick from 47 to 47.5.

NEW ORLEANS AT NEW YORK JETS:
Serious move on New Orleans, who Sharps pounded at the opener of -3.5, as well as at -4, -4.5, -5, and -5.5. They felt six was the better number, and bet anything below that line. Keep in mind that 4 and 5 aren’t key numbers in football betting, so it’s not quite as blockbuster a move as say, crossing a 3 or a 7. It’s still expressing strong sentiment though, because we’ve seen a lot of games in that price range this year that didn’t move like that. The total is up from 45 to 46, again suggesting good weather in a stadium where totals often react to weather forecasts.

TENNESSEE AT ST. LOUIS:
Betting interest from Sharps has been on the Under here, with an opener of 41 being bet down to 39.5. St. Louis struggled badly on offense this past Monday vs. Seattle, and seems likely to do so again. No interest on the team side, where Tennessee is still sitting on its opening line of -3.

KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO:
We have a tug of war brewing between Kansas City -3 and Buffalo +3.5. More Sharps are on the dog than the favorite but the public is expected to bet the undefeated favorite at the cheap price between now and kickoff. Any Sharps who like the Chiefs are taking the field goal knowing that’s the best number they’ll see. Sharps liking the dog hit +3.5 every time they see it, and will continue to do so if given the chance through the weekend. The total has been bet down from 42.5 to 40.5. That may be influenced by weather as well as the stat guys who are getting high 30’s for their Over/Under because of Kansas City’s high quality defense.

SAN DIEGO AT WASHINGTON:
This game has been hopping between pick-em and San Diego -1. That’s not a key number. Many stores are experimenting with the line in hopes of generating action in what’s been a quiet betting option so far. This could be a high interest game for Sharps on Sunday, falling into the category of games they bet heavily Sunday morning rather than early in the week.

PHILADELPHIA AT OAKLAND:
Moving to the late afternoon starts…this game went up later than all the others because of the Eagles quarterback situation. Once it was announced that Nick Foles would be starting, oddsmakers put it up at Oakland -2. Sharps hit that strong enough to move it to -2.5…but not strong enough to move it to -3. Sportsbooks are afraid of moving too quickly to the key number. They may do so if the public bets the favorite on Sunday. Sharps would come in on the Eagles at +3, and are looking to play them in two-team teasers at +8.5

TAMPA BAY AT SEATTLE:
Almost no interest in betting this game from anyone so far. Seattle showed on Monday Night that they’re happy coasting to a straight up win as a big favorite. Tampa Bay showed last Thursday that they may not even be trying to win any more for a disliked head coach. Sharps would come in on Tampa Bay at +17 (a key number) or better if squares drive the line higher than the current Seattle -16.5.

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND:
An opener of Baltimore -3 was bet down quickly to Cleveland +2.5. It’s stayed there in solid fashion ever since. Sharps liked getting the Browns at the key number, and will be pleased to have them +8.5 in two-team teasers if the line stays below the field goal. The total is up from 40 to 41, suggesting nice weather in Ohio this weekend.

PITTSBURGH AT NEW ENGLAND:
An opener of New England -7 was bet down quickly. We’ve mostly seen Pittsburgh +6.5 through the week. Though, some stores have tested as low as six, while others concerned about weekend square action have stayed at Patriots by seven. The Wise Guys like Pittsburgh at +7 or higher. The total is up from an opener of 43 to 44…

INDIANAPOLIS AT HOUSTON:
Indianapolis opened at -1.5, and was bet up to -2.5. Interesting spot here because it mirrors Indianapolis at San Diego from a few weeks ago. Sharps liked the Colts there and got spanked…only to see Indianapolis bounce back the next week and beat Denver. Sharps would come in on Houston at +3 if they see it…and will be taking Houston +8.5 in teasers if the line doesn’t move to a field goal. This is the Sunday Night game, which gives the general public a few extra hours to move the number.

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY (Monday Night):
The Over/Under has been bet up from 48.5 to 50.5 because Chicago has been playing shootouts this year due to their surprisingly bad defense. Many Sharps want to wait on the weather though for a night game in Wisconsin in November. If the weather is going to be acceptable, we’ll see that total rise to 52 and possibly beyond. If the forecast brings scoring challenges, early money will probably buy off their positions and we’ll a drop to 48. On the team side, the number has been hopping between Green Bay -10.5 and Chicago +11 without much passion. Remember that Josh McCown will be quarterbacking for the Bears due to Jay Cutler’s injury. Sharps like his garbage time potential at this high number, and will definitely back the Bears if they see higher than +11. If +11 is the best it gets on game day, Sharps will settle for that. Generally speaking…Sharps who think the Packers will have a big game are focusing on the Over rather than laying that high team side price.

There were once again SIX bye teams this week (Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, the NY Giants, and San Francisco), so we have a slightly smaller schedule than normal.
As always, Good luck Den!!!

Thanks for posting the reports.*

Good stuff as always