HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2:
Ignoring win order; ignoring site order: The team leading 3-games-2 irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 559-138 (.802)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 104-35 (.748)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 66-29 (.695)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 40-19 (.678)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 383-314 (.549)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 69-70 (.496)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 44-51 (.463)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 23-36 (.390)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading 3-games-2 @ HHVVV:
Ignoring win order; considering site order: The team leading 3-games-2 with site order HHVVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 43-10 (.811)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 28-6 (.824)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 31-10 (.756)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 16-6 (.727)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 32-21 (.604)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 21-13 (.618)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 22-19 (.537)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 11-11 (.500)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLLWW:
Considering win order; ignoring site order: The team leading WLLWW irrespective of site order (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 46-15 (.754)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 5-4 (.556)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 5-4 (.556)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 3-3 (.500)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 30-31 (.492)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 3-6 (.333)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 3-6 (.333)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 1-5 (.167)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

HISTORICAL VICTORY PROBABILITIES: Leading WLLWW @ HHVVV:
Considering win order; considering site order: The team leading WLLWW with site order HHVVV (Boston) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2013 MLB Semifinals:
series record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 4-2 (.667)
series record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 2-1 (.667)
series record, MLB only, all rounds: 4-2 (.667)
series record, MLB only, Finals round: 2-1 (.667)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, all rounds: 2-4 (.333)
Game 6 record, all best-of-7 sports, Finals round: 0-3 (.000)
Game 6 record, MLB only, all rounds: 2-4 (.333)
Game 6 record, MLB only, Finals round: 0-3 (.000)
These records are drawn from the applicable 1219 best-of-7 NHL, NBA, and MLB series played through the 2013 MLB Semifinals. Note in general that the greater the number of games or series fitting a particular situation, the greater the significance of the corresponding winning fraction: For example, 0.800 is far more likely to come closer to the true winning fraction in a given situation when the corresponding win-loss record is 400-100 rather than 4-1.

After Game 5: The Boston Red Sox visited and defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-runs-1 to take a 3-games-2 lead in MLB/NBA/NHL best-of-7 playoff series 1220. When leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the Boston Red Sox have a 3-2 series record and a 2-3 Game 6 record. When trailing a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 3-games-2, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 7-2 series record and a 7-2 Game 6 record (with a 7-0 Game 7 record upon winning Game 6 in this situation). In best-of-7 MLB Finals, the last (and only) series in which a team posted a WLLWW @ HHVVV win/site order through the first five games but lost the series was series 19, in which the New York Yankees did so but lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the 1926 MLB Finals. In best-of-7 MLB Finals, the last series in which a team posted a WLLWW @ HHVVV win/site order through the first five games and won the series was series 165, in which the St. Louis Cardinals did so and bested the New York Yankees in the 1964 MLB Finals. So it is that the 1926 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals, while the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox.

Value of Game 4:
Upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals when winning Game 4 have a 4-4 series record; upon leading a best-of-7 MLB playoff series 2-games-1, the St. Louis Cardinals when losing Game 4 have a perfect 9-0 series record (five with home-field advantage, four without).

WLLWW @ HHVVV -> World Series win:
The Boston Red Sox have posted a win/site order of WLLWW @ HHVVV through the first five games of the 2013 World Series. In the history of best-of-7 World Series, the last team to post that win/site order through five games and win the series was the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals, who defeated the New York Yankees. So it is that the 1964 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 Boston Red Sox.

WLLWW @ HHVVV -> World Series loss:
The Boston Red Sox have posted a win/site order of WLLWW @ HHVVV through the first five games of the 2013 World Series. In the history of best-of-7 World Series, the last (and only) team to post that win/site order through five games and lose the series was the 1926 New York Yankees, who fell to the St. Louis Cardinals. So it is that the 1926 St. Louis Cardinals set a favorable precedent for the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals.

Traditionally Tough:
As the historical victory probabilities attest, better in general to lead 3-games-2 than to trail 3-games-2 after the first five games of a best-of-7 playoff series – advantage: Boston Red Sox. Still, when trailing 3-games-2 in a best-of-7 MLB playoff series irrespective of site, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 7-2 series record (2-1 with Games 6-7 on the road), with a 7-0 Game 7 record upon winning Game 6 (2-0 with Games 6-7 on the road). The Red Sox seek their first best-of-7 World Series clinch in Boston since 1918; the St. Louis Cardinals seek to play up to their stellar history under 3-games-2 deficit adversity.

Their have been 3 teams to go to World
Series that finished in last place the previous season, they all lost the World
Series.

Boston 7-9 in closeout games.

Lackey, who suffered a hard-luck loss in Game 2, has held his opponents to four runs or less in 14 of his 15 career playoff starts. Only Andy Pettitte has more such starts (16) in the American League since 2002.

Although they will be in front of what should be a raucous Fenway crowd, the Red Sox will still have their work cut out for them, as they go up against the best pitcher this postseason in 22-year-old righty Michael Wacha, who is 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in these playoffs.

Not to mention, the Cardinals are 8-1 in elimination games in the past three years.

"I'm going out there to try to keep the season alive," Wacha said. "It's must- win from here on out. That's the mindset going in there: win a ballgame."

Only two pitchers have won five times in a single postseason: Diamondbacks starter Randy Johnson in 2001, and Angels reliever Francisco Rodriguez in 2002. Both of those players' teams won the World Series.

Wacha earned the win in Game 2 of this series, as he held the Red Sox to a pair of runs and three hits in six innings. He's only allowed three earned runs in 27 innings this postseason and has held opponents to just a .127 average, the fourth-lowest average in a single postseason among pitchers who logged at least 20 innings.

BOSTON is 107-70 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
BOSTON is 58-30 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
BOSTON is 95-62 (+18.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BOSTON is 76-55 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
BOSTON is 72-48 (+15.4 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

ST LOUIS is 106-72 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 106-72 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 84-45 (+26.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 50-22 (+23.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
BOSTON is 188-181 (-45.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 3-2 (+1.0 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.9 Units)

MICHAEL WACHA vs. BOSTON since 1997
WACHA is 1-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

JOHN LACKEY vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LACKEY is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.27 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

ST. LOUIS vs. BOSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of St. Louis's last 14 games when playing Boston
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis


St Louis at Boston
Wacha: St Louis is 26-10 SU after a loss by 2 runs or less
Lackey: 31-41 SU after a win by 2 runs or less

St. Louis Cardinals 97-65 (60%) @ Boston Red Sox 97-65 (60%)

M. Wacha, my #35 ranked SP, starting for St. Louis Cardinals, has a FIP of 3.25 (#24 in MLB), xFIP of 3.78 (#70 in MLB), tERA of 3.24 (#11 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.88 (#65 in MLB), with a BABIP of .265, LOB% of 79%, and E-F of -0.42. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.71, with a WHIP of 1.13, and opponent BA of .219. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 17%, GB%: 44%, FB%: 39% for a 1.13 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 7%.

J. Lackey, my #47 ranked SP, starting for Boston Red Sox, has a FIP of 3.86 (#78 in MLB), xFIP of 3.49 (#37 in MLB), tERA of 4.17 (#60 in MLB), and SIERA of 3.56 (#32 in MLB), with a BABIP of .281, LOB% of 77%, and E-F of -0.34. He has a K/BB ratio of 4.03, with a WHIP of 1.16, and opponent BA of .245. His batted-ball peripherals are: LD%: 18%, GB%: 47%, FB%: 35% for a 1.34 GB/FB ratio, and a HR/FB of 13%.

St. Louis Cardinals have the #3 bullpen, #10 offense (#6 vs Righties / #20 vs Lefties), and are rated #29 in fielding. They have a road record of 43-38 (53%), ranked #6 in MLB and have Won 6 in a row.

Boston Red Sox have the #11 bullpen, #1 offense (#1 vs Righties / #8 vs Lefties), and are rated #11 in fielding. They have a home record of 53-28 (65%), ranked #3 in MLB and have Lost 2 in a row.

Odds: STL +110 (48%) BOS -119 (54%) O/U = 7

Lean: STL

In 27 post-season innings, Wacha has allowed 11 hits for a 3.7 H/9 rate. His only 3 ER’s allowed came on 2 HR’s, which is a concern of course. But Wacha only had a 7.4% HR/FB rate during the season and 0.7 HR/9, so it’s not like he’s prone to allowing these. By comparison, Lackey has a 13.3% HR/FB rate (similar FB rate as Wacha) and 1.2 HR/9 during the season. The fact that he’s allowed zero so far in the post-season is irrelevant, and to me he’s more likely than Wacha to allow a homer. By comparison to Wacha, Lackey has allowed 16 hits in 18 post-season innings for a 8.0 H/9 rate. Clearly, Wacha has been a more dominant pitcher in the post-season. Lackey also had to pitch an inning in game 4, throwing 17 pitches in that one. I don’t know if that will have any effect on him tonight, but it could. Lackey is 35 years old and any type of additional work during this time of the year could have an impact on his efficiency. Besides, he was pretty inefficient in that relief appearance throwing only 9 strikes to 8 balls for a 53% strike-rate. Cards have their strongest lineup of the series in there tonight, they have a better pitcher on the mound, and they’re the type of a veteran team (with WS experience) that shouldn’t be rattled by the fact that this is an elimination game for them. I think they have a great shot to even out the series today.

It's WACHA WEDNESDAY!!

the Cardinals are 5-0 in Wacha's last five starts, 6-0 in his last six starts versus a team with a winning record and 4-0 in their last four games during Game 6 of a series. They're also 6-1 in their last seven games against American League opponents starting a right-handed starter and 11-4 in their last 15 games following an off day. The Red Sox are also 2-6 in Lackey's last eight games versus National League opponents and 2-7 in his last nine starts following a quality start in his last appearance.

St.L +110 Tonight!!!